20160608-高华证券-中国：储能：行业势头强劲将迎来增长；买入阳光电源（摘要）

2016年6月8日 中国：储能 行业势头强劲将迎来增长； 买入阳光电源 (摘要) 证券研究报告 需求骤升、成本下降、政策支持推动潜在市场规模达2,580亿美元 中国日益增长的能源如何存储？ 我们看到随着中国可再生能源利用的普及、节能要求的提高以及电动车销售的增 长，储能需求大幅攀升。尽管在这方面中国落后于美国和日本，但我们看到随着 创新技术推动成本下降、中国政府寻求可再生能源整合而出台扶持政策，电力价 值链使用储能产品的经济动力正日渐上升。 到2020年潜在市场规模将从当前的3亿美元增长至2,580亿美元 我们认为中国大部分储能需求将来自： (1) 电价差异：储能系统通常是晚上充电，然后在电力需求和价格更高的白天将电 用尽。根据商业和工业用户的电力需求，我们估算2020年这一市场规模将达人 民币15,120亿元（2,310亿美元），相当于11亿千瓦时储能电池安装量。 (2) 各类可再生能源整合：鉴于储能系统能够储存太阳能和风能发的电并在电网拥 有充裕容量时将电出售给电网，我们估算到2020年这部分市场规模将达人民币 1,790亿元（270亿美元）。 以上两者相加，我们预计到2020年总市场规模将达2,580亿美元，而我们估算当 前的市场规模为3亿美元。我们认为锂电池将是未来5年的主流技术，得益于大 力的研发投资和电动车迅速发展带来的协同效应。 买入阳光电源：技术领先、合资公司实力强劲、市场份额上升 我们认为电力转换系统 (PCS)和电池组生产商在当前环境下定位最佳，得益于较 高的技术壁垒、稳定的利润率和强劲的增长前景。阳光电源在光伏逆变器中拥有 领先的技术经验，应最能受益于PCS市场的增长。公司已经与三星SDI成立了合 资公司在国内联合开发储能产品，合资公司计划于2016年中开始运行。我们预 计2016-18年期间公司储能产品的毛利润将以89%的年均复合增速增长，受到后 备订单增加和新产品推出的推动， 2018年该业务预计将为公司贡献22%的毛利 润，而2016年的贡献为9%，我们认为该股估值具有吸引力，当前股价对应17 倍的2017年预期市盈率，而同业均值为21倍，12个月目标价格为人民币28.10 元，对应19%的上行空间。重申对阳光电源的买入评级。 *全文翻译将随后提供 何方 (分析师) +86(21)2401-8925 frank.he@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 执业证书编号: S1420514050001 刘洋 (研究助理) +86(21)2401-8935 yang.liu@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 到2020年，全球储能行业将增长14倍 资料来源：CNESA 相关研究 中国能联网：建设更智能、清洁、高效的电网；强力买入平 高电气，2016年6月8日 科陆电子 (002121.SZ): 新能源产业带来多个增长推动因素； 首次覆盖评为中性，2016年6月8日 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应 当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他 重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 152 386 410 547 650 717 843 947 14,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 … 2020 Installed capacity 400 600 800 200 1,000 14,500 . 14.3x growth potential (MW) 2016年6月8日 行业势头强劲将迎来增长；买入阳光电源 (摘要) 全球投资研究 2 Table of contents Our thesis in six charts 4 Overview: Immense market potential; Sungrow best positioned 5 Three drivers for energy storage in China 8 1) Increasing demand for energy storage 8 2) Declining storage costs 10 3) Supportive policy backdrop 13 US$258bn addressable market by 2020 17 Technology roadmap for energy storage in China 23 Key beneficiaries of energy storage 29 Sungrow (Buy): Geared to rising storage demand; attractive valuation 33 Appendix 47 Disclosure Appendix 50 The prices in the body of this report are as of the market close of June 6, 2016, unless mentioned otherwise. Stocks with exposure to energy storage across our global coverage Global energy storage value chain Prices as of the close as of June 6, 2016 Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research. Position in value chain Company Ticker Market Cap (in $mn) Price Price Target (12-mo) Analyst Rating Technology Exposure Energy storage sales exposure Business description Albemarle Corp. ALB $9,130 $80.96 $90.00 Bob Koort Buy* Lithium ion Lithium producer FMC Corp. FMC $6,671 $49.67 $41.00 Brian Maguire Neutral Lithium ion Lithium producer NEC 6701.T $6,086 ¥250 ¥410 Ikuo Matsuhashi Buy* ICT, charging, energy storage Battery manufacturer NGK Insulators, Inc 5333.T $7,177 ¥2,346 ¥2,230 Daiki Takayama Neutral Sodium Sulfur Battery manufacturer Panasonic 6752.T $20,544 ¥945 ¥1,200 Masaru Sugiyama Neutral Lithium ion Battery manufacturer Samsung SDI 006400.KS $6,616 ₩111,500 ₩110,000 Marcus Shin Neutral Lithium ion Battery manufacturer SolarEdge SEDG $959 $21.52 $25.00 Brian Lee Neutral Primarily lithium ion Inverter manufacturer Sungrow 300274.SZ $2,365 Rmb 23.57 Rmb 28.10 Frank He Buy Lithium ion Inverter/PCS, ESS manufacturer Clou 002121.SZ $1,840 Rmb 25.45 Rmb 26.10 Frank He Neutral Lithium ion/ lead acid Inverter/PCS, ESS manufacturer Tesla TSLA $31,501 $220.68 $250.00 Pat Archambault Buy Lithium ion EV, ESS manufacturer SolarCity SCTY $2,477 $23.97 $23.00 Brian Lee Neutral Primarily lithium ion Solar installer *On Conviction List. Price target for Tesla is based on 6-month. 5% or less 5% to 20% 20% to 50% 50% or greater Materials OEMs/ manufacturers Downstream 2016年6月8日 行业势头强劲将迎来增长；买入阳光电源 (摘要) 全球投资研究 3 Source: CNESA, NDRC, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research. 2020 MARKET POTENTIAL IN CHINA GLOBAL ESS INSTALLATION GROWTH ADDERSSABLE MARKET SHARE EV BATTERY VS. VRE INSTALLATION RISING RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY CHINA’S INSTALLED CAPACITY WHICH TECHNOLOGY TO CHOOSE? NO. OF PATENTS IN VANADIUM REDOX AMPLE COST REDUCTION POTENTIAL LOWEST COST PER KWH SUGNROWS’ ESS ORDER BACKLOG EARNINGS GROWTH OUTLOOK China Energy Storage: In Numbers $0.3bn $258bn We believe price arbitrage in demand side and renewable integration in generation side will become the most important markets to commercialize energy storage in China in the coming 5 years. 21% We find 9 provinces/cities’ C Sungrow best positioned We see increasing demand for energy storage in China driven by growing adoption of variable renewable energy, energy cost saving via price arbitrage, off-grid energy supply, frequency regulation and voltage support. This, coupled with declining storage costs due to technology innovation, is resulting in increasing economic incentives for using energy storage in the power value chain. Following the NEA’s efforts to promote the use of storage for renewable integration in the northern provinces of China (March 2016), we expect more supportive policies (subsidies and tariff mechanism) to facilitate the development of energy storage. 1) Increasing demand for energy storage. Energy storage decouples power demand and supply, and bridges geographical and time differences to enable a more flexible, reliable and efficient energy system. We see growing demand for energy storage applications along the power value chain. 2) Declining costs. With declining battery costs, we see growing economic incentives for the use of energy storage. We use levelized cost of storage (LCOS) to assess the unit storage cost during the entire cycle life for a storage system. We find lead carbon (Rmb0.46-0.64/kwh) and lithium-ion (0.62-1.76/kwh) battery offers the lowest LCOS within the electrochemical battery segment. Our global auto team estimates the average mainstream battery pack cost will decline to US$300/kwh in 2020 and US$180/kwh in 2025, representing a 33% and 61% reduction compared to 2015 or an annual rate of decline of 8% and 9% respectively. This is driven by economies of scale, improving production know-hows, as well as innovation in materials. 3) Supportive policies. We expect more policy support to be announced in the medium term to facilitate energy storage adoption, including subsidies on upfront investment or on-grid tariff, as well as customized retail power tariff schemes to incentivize adoption of energy storage. US$258bn energy storage market potential by 2020 We identify applications in price arbitrage for demand-side management and variable renewable integration on generation side as the key segments that offer commercial value for energy storage. We estimate nine provinces/cities that capture 21% of China’s power supply, already offer over Rmb0.8/kwh power tariff gap between peak and off-peak hours for C Buy (19% upside) We believe Sungrow is well positioned to benefit from the rising energy storage demand in China, owing to its partnership with Samsung SDI. The combination of Sungrow’s leading position in solar/wind inverters and Samsung’s expertise in lithium-ion battery and proven track record in overseas storage projects should help the JV win orders in China. With 180MWh storage orders already secured in 2016, we forecast energy storage will account for 22% of Sungrow’s gross profit in 2018, vs. 9% in 2016. Moreover, we consider Sungrow’s valuation attractive with its shares trading at 17X 2017E P/E vs. peers at 21X and see 19% upside to our 12-month target price of Rmb28.10. Hence, we reiterate our Buy rating on Sungrow. Key risks include price competition for inverter and storage products, margin pressure and installation risks for solar EPC. We expect Shenzhen Clou to also benefit from the rise in energy storage. We view storage orders from the military as the near-term earnings drivers for Clou in the storage space. In Dec 2015, Clou signed a framework contract with LG Chem for potentially establishing a JV in China to develop, manufacture and sell energy storage products. We believe Clou’s strength in energy storage lies in its know-how in power conversion system (PCS) and local sales and distribution network while LG Chem’s leading expertise in lithium battery creates synergy to commercialize and ramp up sales. We forecast energy storage will account for 16% of Clou’s gross profit in 2018, vs. 5% in 2016. However, valuations appear fair with our 12m target price of Rmb26.10 implying just 3% upside. Hence, we initiate coverage on Clou at Neutral. Key risks include alleviated solar farms’ curtailment issues in Xinjiang and slowdown of traditional smart meter revenue on high penetration. For more details, please see Shenzhen Clou Electronics Co. (002121.SZ): Multiple growth drivers ahead from New Energy; Initiate at Neutral. Exhibit 7 lists the major Chinese companies with exposure to the energy storage value chain. Exhibit 7: Major companies with exposure to energy storage in China Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research. Technology Category Major companies with exposure to the storage value chain Note Pumped hydro Shanghai Electric (601727.SS/2727.HK), Dongfang Electric (600875.SS/1072.HK) Power turbine suppliers Compressed Air Shuangliang Eco Energy Systems (600481.SS) Invest in R we see consistent improvement in energy/power density, cycle life, safety and cost. Usually it takes 10-20 years on average to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. For example, LCO-based battery was invented in 1980s and Sony commercialized the technology in 1991. LFP-based Li-ion battery was invented in 1996 and mass production started around 2005. Our checks with leading auto OEMs revealed that they expect solid state battery to become the next-generation battery, a safer solution with longer life cycle and better performance in extreme temperature, in addition to LFP (lithium iron phosphate) and ternary (nickel manganese cobalt/nickel cobalt aluminum). 0 50 100 150 200 250 Gr/NMC333 Gr/LMRNMC Si/LMRNMC Li/LMRNMC Cathode Anode Inactive materials Purchased items Pack integration Non‐materials (US$/kwh) Gr/NMC333: Graphite anode coupled with nickel‐manganese‐cobalt cathode GR/LMRNMC: Graphite anode coupled with manganese‐rich layered cathode Si/LMRNMC: Silicon alloy composite anode coupled withmanganese‐rich layered cathode Li/LMRNMC:Lithium metal anode coupled with manganese‐rich layered cathode 2016年6月8日 行业势头强劲将迎来增长；买入阳光电源 (摘要) 全球投资研究 13 Exhibit 17: We see ample room for material innovation to improve battery capacity and energy density Next generation battery technology Source: Samsung SDI 3) Supportive policy backdrop China is at the beginning of the policy support cycle According to CNESA, China’s cumulative installed capacity reached 105MW at end-2015 with 118 projects in operation. Thanks to the growing policy support, declining storage costs and proliferation of EV battery inventory, we expect energy storage sets to achieve rapid growth in the coming decade. In July 2015, the NEA issued the “guiding opinions to promote new energy micro grid demonstration projects”, which requires addition of storage facilities if renewable energy represents more than 50% of the total power capacity or peak load. This marks the first policy related to energy storage in China. In Mar 2016, the NDRC announced the “guiding opinions to promote internet plus smart energy development”. Energy storage is a critical part of the smart energy eco-system and this policy entails (1) interconnection of energy storage facilities across different industries, (2) building database to monitor and operate the distributed energy storage systems, (3) application of tiered utilization on obsolete EV battery for energy storage purpose, (4) promotion of applications such as storage leasing, emergency backup, frequency balancing. Energy storage, together with distributed generation power and electric vehicle, has become one of the top 100 projects for the 13-5 year plan. In March 2016, the NEA also announced a draft for comments to promote electrical storage application in peak shaving and ancillary services in northern provinces, which specifies its application in different segments of the power system: (1) Encouraging power generator, retailer and end user to adopt storage facility with over 10MW capacity and over 4 hours discharge time. (2) To build demand-side storage facility for industrial government needs to create incentives to adopt off-grid power supply in the long run Cost analysis on solar-plus-storage applications in China Source: Gao Hua Securities Research related to end user related to power grid DG solar system Power consumer Power gridPower storage Rmb0.8/kwh (on- grid tariff + subsidy) Rmb0.53/kwh national average tariff for resi and Rmb0.77/kwh for C Long cycle time and no degradation in Low energy density energy storage capacity Complicated production know-hows Mature technology Site specific Pumped hydro Low storage cost, long cycle life Long response time High power capacity Low energy density High power density, scalability and depth of discharge Lower energy density capability Low duration Low cost, mature technology Site specific High energy capacity, long duration Low energy density Short charge time, long cycle life Low specific power and energy Very short response time High cost Lead-carbon Compressed Air Flow battery (Vanadium Redox) Supercapacitor Flywheel 2016年6月8日 行业势头强劲将迎来增长；买入阳光电源 (摘要) 全球投资研究 28 Exhibit 36: Our lifecycle unit cost analysis shows mechanical storage technologies have the lowest storage cost while electrochemical-based battery has further potential to lower cost Levelized cost of storage (LCOS) comparison by technology Source: Company data, Sandia National Laboratories, IEA, Gao Hua Securities Research Exhibit 37: We believe electrochemical battery has higher potential to lower unit cost in the coming years LCOS comparison by technology Exhibit 38: Our global auto team forecasts battery cost will decline over 60% over 2015-2025 Lithium-ion battery cost reduction forecast Source: Company data, Sandia National Laboratories, IEA, Gao Hua Securities Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Capex (Rmb/kwh) 2,000 3,500 1,000 1,500 2,500 6,000 1,500 4,000 1,000 1,500 3,000 6,000 Cycle life 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 5,000 5,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Roundtrip efficiency 81% 81% 70% 70% 65% 65% 91% 91% 80% 85% 75% 75% O Initiate at Neutral.