19-12-03 2019世界能源情景

World Energy Scenarios 2019 Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040 In Collaboration with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer InstituteABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL The World Energy Council is the principal impartial network of energy leaders and practitioners promoting an affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive energy system for the greatest benefit of all. Formed in 1923, the Council is the UN-accredited global energy body, representing the entire energy spectrum, with over 3,000 member organisations in over 90 countries, drawn from governments, private and state corporations, academia, NGOs and energy stakeholders. We inform global, regional and national energy strategies by hosting high-level events including the World Energy Congress and publishing authoritative studies, and work through our extensive member network to facilitate the world’s energy policy dialogue. Further details at www.worldenergy.org and @WECouncil Published by the World Energy Council 2019 Copyright © 2019 World Energy Council. All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy Council’ World Energy Council Registered in England and Wales No. 4184478 VAT Reg. No. GB 123 3802 48 Registered Office 62–64 Cornhill London EC3V 3NH United Kingdom ABOUT THE REPORT Scenarios provide an inclusive and strategic framework that enables big-picture thinking. They are designed to be used as a set to explore and navigate what might happen and support a better-quality global strategic dialogue on the future of energy systems. In 2016, the World Energy Council and its scenarios partners, Accenture Strategy Energy and the Paul Scherrer Institute, introduced the World Energy Scenarios which explore three plausible pathways for energy transition to 2060. Over the last three years this scenario framework has been validated by input from the Council’s extensive energy expert member community. The three scenarios are perceived to be more relevant than ever. In this scenarios refresh, the Council has adopted a medium-term time horizon of 2040 and focused on the implications of broader and disruptive innovation for the energy industry. The report, “Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040,” presents three global storylines to 2040, with supporting systems thinking maps, comparative analysis and regional summaries. It includes a discussion of new insights, reflecting deeper shifts in the energy system innovation landscape, and provides a broader view on “how to use” the scenarios. Refreshed scenarios were informed by insights from more than 100 deep-dive leadership interviews across 14 themes, regional workshops and wide experts’ engagements. Produced in collaboration with: Accenture Strategy as Project Partner, Scenarios Paul Scherrer Institute as Project Partner, Scenarios: Energy Modelling and Scenario Quantification1 PREFACE The World Energy Council has been developing and using World Energy Scenarios for over a decade to support its global member network of energy leaders, to clarify complexity, and to realise new oppor- tunities for successfully managing global energy transition. Welcome to the new and different futures of energy and an opportunity to better prepare for the challenges ahead! Since introducing the World Energy Scenarios framework in 2016, our extensive global horizon scan- ning has detected signals in all three of our archetype scenarios – Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock – in all regions of the world. We have benchmarked the Council’s scenarios with the energy future outlooks, scenarios, and visions that have been produced by a well-respected peer group, which includes global energy companies and international institutions. Importantly, we continue to invest in effective use. We are supporting our members and their stake- holders in their use of the World Energy Scenarios, recognising that the added value of a scenari- os-based leadership dialogue is different from simply discussing written reports. We have developed a variety of application processes, with an emphasis on interactive experiences to help governments and businesses use World Energy Scenarios in the drive to impact. In addition to the three scenario stories, there is a detailed comparative analysis of the implications for the energy system, eight regional perspectives, and a set of supporting energy systems dynamics maps. We encourage energy leaders to resist the temptation to flick directly to the numbers section and, instead, to immerse themselves in the stories in order to make better sense of the illustrative quantification. In the journey of The Grand Transition, we have entered a new energy era, which promises clean energy abundance and the benefits of sustainable energy for all. It is a promise that still needs to be met. In order to succeed, we need to avoid the risk of fragmentation of bottom-up innovation and top-down ideological polarisation, which is characterising global energy dialogues. These scenarios are a tool to help guide leadership decisions through rapidly changing energy realities and a platform to realise the importance and benefits of a collaborative approach by energy transition leaders, within and beyond the energy sector. Whatever your role – government minister, investor, technologist, entrepreneur, business leader, major resource holder, city mayor, policy maker/shaper, energy expert, or interested observer – we invite you to join us in using and further developing these scenarios in the drive to thrive in a successful world-wide energy system transition. As a result, we are confident in providing assurances of the quality, relevance, and usefulness of this set of World Energy Scenarios to 2040. This latest set of scenario narratives maintains the existing scenario framework and describes three potential pathways for energy system transition to 2040. At the request of our members we have focused these scenarios on helping energy leaders to grapple with the new realities of a disruptive landscape of innovation in energy transition, which is emerging faster and from beyond the energy sector. Younghoon David Kim Chair, World Energy Council Christoph Frei Secretary General, World Energy Council 2 WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS | 2019 2 FOREWORD We have entered the age of disruptions. Technological innovations, climate change and more tense geopolitics are reshaping the world of energy. The World Energy Scenarios provide the perfect tool for assessing these macro-uncertainties and crafting a strategic response, whether you are an energy leader, policy maker or innovator. Following an intensive review of signals a decision was made to maintain the World Energy Scenarios 2016 framework, focus on medium-term pathways to 2040 and elaborate on regional developments. The three 2019 scenarios are, as before: These scenarios were developed by World Energy Council members and produced with our collabora- tors, Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute. The process included 100 expert interviews and several workshops building the scenario narratives, both in London and other locations. We offer thanks to those Member Committees that hosted workshops in France, Estonia, Germany and UAE; and to those who attended most of the workshops: Andreia Severiano, Angel Landa Ugarte, Burkhard von Kienitz, Christoph Menzel, François Cattier, François Dassa, Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Jean-Eudes Moncomble, John M. Roberts, Julian Jansen, Priit Mändmaa, Rafael Cayuela, Ryo Fukushima, Stefan Gheorghe, and Wolfgang Ernst. The ability to incorporate the wide range of perspectives from multiple sources was only possible thanks to a talented core team. I would like to thank those who have contributed to this project. This includes from Accenture Strategy, Albert Howard, James Collins, Muqsit Ashraf and Richard Kho whose critical analyses have enhanced the report; from the Paul Scherrer Institute, Tom Kober, Martin Densing and Evangelos Panos, who led the modelling, and from the World Energy Council’s Secretariat, Angela Wilkinson and Anastasia Belostotskaya, whose leadership and coordination was central to the success of the project; and Betty Sue Flowers, our report editor. The launch of the World Energy Scenarios in Abu Dhabi is a platform for possible applications across the world. Many possible uses of scenarios are outlined in the report and are recommended for a broad range of users. What I have learned from this process is: Finally, I take full responsibility for any omissions or inaccuracies in the report. • Modern Jazz. A market-led, innovative, and digitally disrupted world with a faster paced and more uneven economic growth. • The need to get a better understanding of combinatorial disruptions, and the promise of the “constellation of disruptions” tool. • The sharply different formulation of regional challenges across the world that questions our desire to work together to address global concerns. • There are no certainties about the exact nature and form of the energy transition. We need inspired leadership and the courage to create the energy world we need and want. • Unfinished Symphony. A strong, coordinated, policy-led world, with long-term planning and united global action to address connected challenges, particularly a low-carbon future • Hard Rock. A fragmented world with inward looking policies, lower growth and less global cooperation. Ged Davis - Executive Chair, World Energy Scenarios, World Energy Council3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface 1 Foreword 2 Executive Summary 4 Introduction 12 PART ONE | WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2040 17 Modern Jazz 21 Unfinished Symphony 35 Hard Rock 47 PART TWO | COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 55 PART THREE | USING SCENARIOS 69 PART FOUR | DESIGNING FOR DISRUPTIONS 75 REFLECTIONS FOR THE ENERGY INDUSTRY 82 ANNEX Regional Summaries Middle East and North Africa 86 Latin America and the Caribbean 90 North America 94 Sub-Saharan Africa 98 Europe 101 East Asia 104 Central Asia 108 Asia Pacific 111 List of Figures and Tables 114 Glossary 116 References 118 Methodology 122 Supplementary Data Tables 125 Acknowledgements 1464 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the World Energy Council last published its World Energy Scenarios in 2016, we have experienced three years of comparatively high, carbon-centric energy demand and a marked acceleration in renewable energy developments. A new pattern of geostrategic competition is emerging that is further straining the multilateral system and impacting global trade. What has changed most, however, is the speed and volatil- ity of changes and unevenness of impacts. Fragmentation and polarisation of leadership and poor eco- nomic returns limiting the license to invest for market players are emerging as some of the biggest risks in managing successful energy transition. Meanwhile, energy leaders are also challenged to make sense of the fast-shifting landscape of innovation and the new spirt of entrepreneurialism in energy. A fresh focus on energy systems innovation and the emerging phenomenon of “disruption-as-usual” is both timely and relevant to energy transition leaders within and beyond the energy sector. The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the “Grand Transition” . These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. The energy system implications of this 2019 scenario-based update include: Recommendations for business leaders and policy makers are presented with a clear call to avoid compla- cency and fragmented action, to address connected challenges and to intensify collaborative innovation. 1 4 7 2 5 8 3 6 9 GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND MOMENTUM REMAINS in line with the 2016 scenario modelling, with per capita energy consumption projected to peak in the 2020s. ENERGY EFFICIENCY GAINS ARE CRITICAL to manage energy demand from industrial, residential and commercial sectors and to avoid reducing climate change momentum. NEW NET-ZERO CARBON TECHNOLOGIES PATHWAYS (including hydrogen) and carbon abatement mech- anisms (including Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS)) emerge and start to scale by 2040. ALL THREE WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN VALIDATED by signals in all regions and are perceived as more relevant than ever. A NEW MOBILITY REVOLUTION, which is dependent on infrastructure, is gathering momentum, with the potential to disrupt the entire energy landscape in the longer term. INFRASTRUCTURE INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT, and proactive policies are necessary to secure affordable decarbonisation and socially just energy transitions. ELECTRIFICATION EXTENDS TO MORE USES AND USERS, driving decarbonisation rates; however, the question of hard-to-abate sectors and non-electrified uses remains open. NEW OPPORTUNITIES ARE EMERGING to provide energy-plus services in an increasingly consum- er-centric energy system. ACHIEVING PARIS AGREEMENT TARGETS REMAINS ELUSIVE, with none of the 2019 scenarios meeting the 2°C target agreed to in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last three years, this scenario framework has been validated by input from the Council’s extensive energy expert member community and annual surveys of energy leaders. The three scenarios are per- ceived by these experts to be more relevant than ever. Discussion of member input has added interesting nuances to each scenario archetype. In this round, the Council has adopted a medium-term time horizon of 2040 and focused on the implications of broader and disruptive innovation for the energy industry. The focused refresh of the scenarios provides new insights into the broader and fast-shifting landscape of innovation, which is emerging from within and beyond the energy system and includes not only new energy technologies but also non-energy technological innovations and a new spirit of entrepreneurialism in energy. The scenarios redirect energy leaders’ attention to other non-technological innovations such as new consumer behaviours and innovative business models that disrupt existing value chains and can reshape the whole energy system. This 2019 update confirms the general direction of the three scenario pathways of the 2016 report. Signals of each scenario have been detected in all regions of the world through the use of a variety of leadership surveys and systematic horizon-scanning methods. There has been a marked shift in per- ception about the scenario Hard Rock, which is no longer seen as an extreme scenario. Perspectives are also more divided about the outlook for effective global cooperation, which is assumed in the scenario Unfinished Symphony. The entrepreneurial scenario Modern Jazz has generated a lot of questions about new societal dynamics relating to increasing inequality, active consumers and effective market design. In 2016, the World Energy Council (the “Council”) and its scenar