构建2030汽车电动化之路（英语版）--德勤.pdf

Electric vehicles Setting a course for 2030Deloitte’s Global Automotive team helps automotive companies execute innovative ideas in exceptional ways. We offer a global, integrated approach combined with business and industry knowledge to help our clients excel anywhere in the world. Contact the authors for more information or read more about our services on Deloitte.com.Contents Introduction 2 Part 1: Global progress and forecast 3 EVs in regional markets 4 2030 sales forecast 6 Four factors driving growth 7 Part 2: New landscape, new approach 12 Segmenting the market 12 Checklist for the journey ahead 21 Endnotes 232 Electric vehicles S INCE DELOITTE LAST presented a forecast for electric vehicle (EV) sales, in January 2019, the EV market has made great strides, and not just in terms of sales. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMS) have invested billions to deliver new electrified models, from R Norway achieved 56 per cent market share, and two of the top ten best-selling cars in Holland were BEVs. 3 The United Kingdom and some other countries reported triple-digit growth for the year. Favour- able government policies and a change in consumer attitudes were the catalysts, driven primarily by growing concerns about climate change. Climate change rose to the top of many European governments’ agendas. The United Kingdom committed to a target of net zero emissions by 2050, and proposed a ban on the sale of all polluting vehicles by 2035. 4 Germany plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by the end of 2020, by 55 per cent by the end of 2030 and up to 95 per cent by the end of 2050, compared to 1990 levels. 5 Despite the growth seen in 2019, mainstream adop- tion of EVs has been, so far, hindered by the limited number of models available to the European market and consumer perceptions regarding insufficient charging infrastructure in some regions. 6 The outbreak of COVID-19 and national lockdown measures impacted total car sales in Europe, as showrooms closed their doors and manufacturers halted production, but EV sales have held up well in comparison to their internal combustion engine (ICE) equivalents. In the first four months of 2020, in the European Union (EU), demand for new pas- senger cars contracted by 38.5 per cent, but in April 2020 – the first full month with COVID-19 restric- tions in place – registrations of new passenger cars in the EU posted a year-on-year decline of 76.3 per cent, with some major markets reporting declines of over 95 per cent year-on-year. 7 But EV sales in Western Europe only fell by 31 per cent in April, with some countries actually reporting modest year-on-year growth – albeit against a low base. 8 CHINA China continues to dominate the EV market, accounting for half of all vehicle sales. Sales in the second half of 2019 turned out lower than previ- ously expected after some subsidies available to Chinese consumers were halved. 9 This considerably eroded the consumer demand for EVs, and total yearly sales dropped: PHEV sales fell by 9 per cent and BEV sales fell to a 17 per cent growth rate from 2018 to 2019. 10 On a positive note, a slowdown in the sales of ICE vehicles in the region means that the EV market share in China actually increased. China continues to dominate the EV market, accounting for half of all vehicle sales.5 Setting a course for 2030 China’s slowdown in the second half of 2019 affected global EV sales figures, but neither the slashed subsidies nor the impact of COVID-19 should impact EV sales significantly in the long term. Chinese authorities announced they would refrain from more subsidy cuts in 2020. 11 Mean- while, other incentives (for example, number-plate privileges in Tier 1 cities) remain, investment is being made in China’s charging infrastructure and there is a continued focus on encouraging Chinese manufacturers to produce and market EVs. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures in place, China saw a 45 per cent decline in passenger car sales in Q1 2020. 12 EV sales fell at a faster rate than the total market (by 56 per cent), as consumers stayed home and showrooms closed their doors. 13 But the rate of recovery has been swift. By March 2020, Chinese factories had recovered to achieve a production rate of 75 per cent, with 86 per cent of employees returning to work. By April 2020, production had basically been restored to pre-pandemic levels. Although sales have remained depressed in certain Chinese provinces, recovery has been accelerated by pent-up demand, favourable policies put in place by Chinese authorities and the ability to purchase cars online; total sales actually reflected year-on-year growth in April. This brings hope for a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in China, with many individual EV manufacturers already benefitting from the release of new models. 14 UNITED STATES After an encouraging start to 2019, falling fuel prices in the United States (a market that already enjoys comparatively cheap private transportation) led to a disappointing second half of the year for EV sales. The United States EV market is almost singlehandedly being carried by the success of the Tesla Model 3 – alone responsible for almost half of all EV sales. 15 As in Europe and China, United States car sales fell sharply in the first three months of 2020 as the pan- demic took a toll on demand; job losses increased and large swathes of the population were ordered to stay home. The recovery in EV sales is likely to be slower in the United States than in other major regions, as manufacturers delay the launch of new cars and consumers take advantage of low oil prices. REST OF THE WORLD The world outside Europe, China and the United States is lagging behind in terms of EV sales, for various reasons: a lack of government commit- ment to EVs, insufficient or unsuitable charging infrastructure, unavailability of EVs and cultural differences regarding mobility models. For example, Japan is a major global car market, but new car sales are dominated by domestic OEMs that have not yet developed the same range of EVs as their European and Chinese competitors. Meanwhile, India, like many markets, is dominated by mass- and low-cost mobility models: an area that OEMs haven’t been able to penetrate so far, because of EVs’ comparative higher price. The world outside Europe, China and the United States is lagging behind in terms of electric vehicles sales.6 Electric vehicles 2030 sales forecast With one eye fi rmly on progress so far, Deloitte has analysed the most recent indicators to develop an up-to-date prediction of the EV market for the next ten years. We know that BEVs already outperform PHEVs globally, and predict that by 2030, BEVs will likely account for 81 per cent (25.3 million) of all new EVs sold. By contrast, PHEV sales are expected to reach 5.8 million by 2030. A recovery from COVID-19 will see ICE vehicles return to growth, up to 2025 (81.7 million), then experience a decline in market penetration thereafter. Our global EV forecast is for a compound annual growth rate of 29 per cent achieved over the next ten years: Total EV sales growing from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025, then reaching 31.1 million by 2030. EVs would secure approximately 32 per cent of the total market share for new car sales (see fi gure 2). Annual car sales are unlikely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024. However, the pace of recovery is forecasted to be a result of a slowdown in ICE sales; EVs will continue to have a positive trajectory during the COVID-19 recovery period and may well end up capturing a dispro- portionate share of the market in the short term. Deloitte expects that by 2030 China will hold 49 per cent of the global EV market, Europe will account for 27 per cent, and the United States will hold 14 per cent. The share of new car sales taken up by EVs will vary considerably across markets (see fi gure 3). We forecast China to achieve a domestic market share of around 48 per cent by 2030 – almost double that of the United States (27 per cent), and Europe should achieve 42 per cent. But this doesn’t tell the whole story. Growth in Northern and Western Europe is expected to outstrip that in Southern and Eastern Europe as wealthier countries (such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Nordic countries) likely invest more in infrastructure and off er greater cash and tax incentives to accelerate initial growth. Source: Deloitte analysis, IHS Markit, EV-Volumes.com 16 Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 FIGURE 2 Outlook for annual global passenger-car and light-duty vehicle sales, to 2030 Global ICE Global BEV Global PHEV 0 25 50 75 100 EV share Global passenger car and light duty vehicle sales (in millions) Global market share 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%7 Setting a course for 2030 Four factors driving growth Despite the pressure exerted on the market by the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term outlook for EVs is strong. The significant shift in expected volume of BEVs and PHEVs by 2030 is based on four factors: consumer sentiment, policy and regulation, OEM strategy and the role of corporate companies. All four of these factors saw major changes in direction over the last year, prior to the emergence of COVID-19, and have since been shaped further by the pandemic. FACTOR 1 – CHANGING CONSUMER SENTIMENT Consumer demand will fuel the growth of EVs but, at the moment, there are several reasons consumers haven’t swapped their ICE vehicles for equivalent EVs. However, as the barriers to adoption are rapidly removed, EVs are increasingly becoming a realistic and viable option. Figure 4 shows how consumer concerns regarding BEVs have changed, and in many instances diminished, since 2018. Source: Deloitte analysis, IHS Markit, EV-Volumes.com 17 Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 FIGURE 3 Outlook for EV market share by major region US - EV market share 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Europe - EV market share China - EV market share EV Global share of sales EV GROWTH BEYOND 2030 Beyond 2030, we expect the rate of growth in EV sales to slow. Some markets will be unable to support the transition to EVs in the same way that wealthier nations will over the next decade. Consider that, beyond 2030, one of the key factors in sustaining growth will be the implementation of suitable charging infrastructure. This requires multi-billion-dollar capital investments – achievable in some markets through a combination of public and private investment, but unlikely to be achieved uniformly around the world. In countries that cannot invest in charging infrastructure, we expect the market for ICE vehicles to remain for some time.