从本地风能产业到全球出口中心：2023-2027 年印度风能市场展望（英文版）-全球风能理事会（GWEC） (1).pdf

GWEC.NET FROM LOCAL WIND POWER TO GLOBAL EXPORT HUB INDIA WIND ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 2023-2027SponsorGWEC.NET 3 Disclaimer Copyright © August 2023 This document contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current views, expectations, assumptions and information of the Authors. The Authors and their employees and representatives do not guarantee the accuracy of the data or conclusions of this work. They are not responsible for any adverse effects, loss or damage in any way resulting from this work. Permissions and Usage This work is subject to copyright. Its content, including text and graphics, may be reproduced in part for non-commercial purposes, with full attribution. Attribution From local wind power to global export hub: India wind energy market outlook 2023-2027. Global Wind Energy Council and MEC+, 2023. Authors Sidharth Jain (MEC+); Swarnim Srivastava (MEC+); Disha Sodani (MEC+) Feng Zhao (GWEC); Martand Shardul (GWEC); Francis Jayasurya (GWEC); Anjali Lathigara (GWEC); Joyce Lee (GWEC) Report Design Aspire Design, New Delhi Image credits GWEC and partners Acknowledgements We express our appreciation for providing insights and industry perspectives to this report to the following organisations: Dafa Group; Danhydra; GE Renewable Energy; KK Wind Solutions; Nibewind; Nissens Cooling Solutions: Resolux; Rewair; Synergy Green; TPI; Vena Energy; WEG; Windar RenovablesFrom local wind power to global export hub: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 4GWEC.NET 5 About MEC+ MEC+, also known as MEC Intelligence, is a specialist consulting firm focused on the wind and renewables sector for the last 10 years. MEC+ comprises a highly skilled team of consultants with a deep understanding of turbine technology , integration opportunities with battery , hydrogen, project supply chains in offshore and onshore wind, power market design, financing / bidding / PPA structuring and regulatory market. MEC+ engages with asset owners and supply chain companies on their investment and growth decisions. The support provided extends from building business plans, identification and mitigation of risks, and managing innovation and sales processes at client organisations. In India, MEC+ has supported multiple acquisitions in the market on both supply chain and asset platforms. MEC+ also offers bidding support and strategy building for India. MEC+ works with government entities to build a strong commercial understanding of areas related to wind power. Working with GWEC as a knowledge partner on India, MEC+ publishes the annual wind power market outlook and engages in multi- stakeholder discussions to promote wind power. Our clients include the largest global wind OEMs, utilities, oil and gas companies, Supply chain players, Equity funds, and Independent Service Providers. For further queries, please visit www .mecintelligence.comFrom local wind power to global export hub: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 6 About GWEC The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) is the global trade association for the wind power industry . Our mission is to ensure that wind power establishes itself as the answer to today’s energy challenges, providing substantial environmental and economic benefits. We work closely with national governments, policymakers and international institutions to give them transparent information about the benefits and potential of wind power, enabling them to make informed decisions about national energy policies. The members of GWEC represent over 1,500 companies, organisations and institutions in more than 80 countries. Our members are also all of the national wind industry trade associations, from both established and emerging markets, including the world’s largest markets of the US, all the European markets, India and China. GWEC is actively engaged with emerging markets to unlock their wind potential with proven successes in Latin America, Africa, India and also Southeast Asia. GWEC also works at the highest international political level to create a better policy environment for wind power. Working with the UNFCCC, REN21, the IEA, international financial institutions, the IPCC and IRENA, GWEC advocates for policies to help wind power reach its full potential in as wide a variety of markets as possible. GWEC India was established in 2020 as a single advocacy and research body representing the entire value chain of India’s wind industry . GWEC India works closely with government stakeholders, companies and adjacent technologies to accelerate the momentum around wind power development in India and support the country in achieving its ambitious renewable energy targets. For further queries please visit www .gwec.net or contact francis.jayasurya@gwec.net. GWEC.NET 7 Contents Tables, Figures and Boxes 8 Abbreviations 9 Definitions 11 Foreword 13 Executive Summary 21 1. India’s wind energy sector: Background 25 2. India’s wind pipeline 29 3. Wind’s position in India’s energy transition 33 4. Looking ahead to offshore wind development 39 5. The onshore wind outlook in India: 2023-2027 41 6. Expanding the Indian supply chain for the export market 45 7. Rising up to global supply chain opportunities 51 8. Conclusion and recommendations for policymakers 61 Appendix 67From local wind power to global export hub: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 8 Tables, Figures and Boxes Table 1: Onshore wind demand and nacelle supply benchmark between CY 2023 to CY 2030 46 Table 2: Standard taxes for wind turbine manufacturing - India vs China 58 Figure 1: YoY onshore wind, solar and hybrid installations between CY 2015 to CY 2022 26 Figure 2: Standalone onshore wind & hybrid projects - Central tenders from CY 2019 to CY 2023 30 Figure 3: Standalone onshore wind & hybrid - State tenders between CY 2019 to CY 2023 31 Figure 4: LCoE for standalone onshore wind and solar projects in India between 2020 to 2028 34 Figure 5: Status of grid availability for onshore wind by CY 2027 and CY 2030 36 Figure 6: Total RPO demand between FY 2023 to FY 2027 37 Figure 7: India Offshore wind - different models and planned trajectory 40 Figure 8: Forecast YoY new onshore wind installations in India between 2023 to 2027 43 Figure 9: YoY global wind installation between CY 2015 to 2022 and forecast between CY 2023 to 2027 45 Figure 10: Global wind key component supply chain overview in 2022 47 Figure 11: OEM wise onshore wind installation done in CY 2021 and CY 2022 in India 48 Figure 12: Global product technology roadmap for onshore wind turbines by top 10 countries as per forecast installations 52 Figure 13: Cost range of Chinese vs Indian onshore turbines 54 Box 1: US Calls for Countervailing Duty on Indian Wind Energy OEMs 53 Box 2: Capital expenditures on materials for onshore and offshore wind 55 Box 3: Cost differentiation between Indian and Chinese casting manufacturing 56GWEC.NET 9 Abbreviations AMPC Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit AD Antidumping duty ALMM Approved List of Models and Manufacturers BCD Basic Custom Duty CY Calendar Year CUF Capacity Utilisation Factor CAPEX Capital Expenditure CEA Central Electricity Authority CTUIL Central Transmission Utility of India Limited CMCT City Maintenance & Construction Tax C&I Commercial & Industrial CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CCDC Concessional Custom Duty Exemption Certificate COP Conference of Parties CIT Corporate Income Tax CVD Countervailing Duty CRMA Critical Raw Materials Act DISCOM Distribution Company EU European Union FY Financial Year GW Gigawatt GWEC Global Wind Energy Council GST Goods and Services Tax GUVNL Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Limited IPP Independent Power Producer INR Indian Rupee IRA Inflation Reduction Act IEA International Energy Agency IGST Interstate Goods and Services Tax ISTS Inter-State Transmission System kWh Kilowatt-hour LATAM Latin America LCOE Levelised Cost of Energy L1 Lowest price MW Megawatt MEIS Merchandise Exports from India Scheme MNRE Ministry of New & Renewable Energy MOP Ministry of Power NIWE National Institute of Wind Energy NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation OW Offshore Wind OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer PLF Plant Load Factor PPA Power Purchase Agreement PGCIL Power Grid Corporation of India Limited PLI Production Linked Incentive RoDTEP Remission of Duties or Taxes on Export Products Scheme RE Renewable Energy RPO Renewable purchase Obligation RfS Request for Selection RLMM Revised List of Models & Manufacturers RTC Round-the-clock SECI Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited UK United Kingdom USA United States of America UMCT Urban Maintenance & Construction Tax VAT Value Added Tax WTG Wind Turbine Generator YoY Year on YearFrom local wind power to global export hub: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 10GWEC.NET 11 Decarbonisation ‘Decarbonisation’ tends to refer to the process of reducing ‘carbon intensity’, lowering the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the burning of fossil fuels. Generally , this involves decreasing CO2 output per unit of electricity generated. Hybrid Projects / tenders Energy projects that use two or more energy sources for power generation. For example, SECI Hybrid Projects use solar and wind in combination Net Zero A target of completely negating the amount of greenhouse gases produced by human activity , to be achieved by reducing emissions. Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) Under Section 86(1) (e) of the Electricity Act 2003 and the National Tariff Policy 2006, Renewable purchase obligation (RPO), is a mechanism by which the obligated entities are obliged to a purchase certain percentage of electricity from Renewable Energy sources, as a percentage of the total consumption of electricity . Distribution Licensee A licensee authorised to operate and maintain a distribution system for supplying electricity to the consumers in his area of supply . Supply Chain A supply chain is a network of individuals and companies who are involved in creating a product and delivering it to the end user customers or other businesses. Pipeline / pipelining Pipelining is an ongoing, continuous process in which new instructions, or tasks, are added to the pipeline and completed tasks are removed at a specified time. Calendar Y ear The period of time beginning on January 1 and ending on December 31 of each year. Financial Y ear FY is a 12-month accounting period starting from April 1 and ending on March 31 of each year. Base case scenario The base case refers to a fundamental or standard scenario that is used as a starting point or reference for analysis, decision-making, or evaluation. It represents the most likely or realistic situation based on the available information and assumptions. The base case serves as a benchmark against which other scenarios or variations can be compared or assessed. Ambitious case scenario An ambitious case scenario refers to a situation or projection that assumes favourable or positive outcomes. It is a best-case or highly positive. It represents an idealistic view of the future with the belief that conditions will be highly favourable and result in the best possible outcomes. Conservative case scenario A conservative case scenario refers to a situation or projection that assumes unfavourable or negative outcomes. It represents a cautious or sceptical view of the future, with the belief that circumstances will be challenging and result in the least favourable outcomes. DefinitionsFrom local wind power to global export hub: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 12GWEC.NET 13 Ben Backwell CEO, Global Wind Energy Council Foreword As temperatures reach record-highs around the world this year, there is gathering momentum among governments for the global energy transition. Global renewable energy capacity must triple by the end of the decade to at least 11 TW to keep a 1.5°C window alive. This calls for an unprecedented acceleration of large-scale wind and solar power to mitigate the most harmful effects of climate change. International leadership and cooperation will be critical to achieving this 2030 goal. This year, India presides over the G20 grouping of the largest economies of the world representing 85% of global GDP and 80% of global carbon emissions. In this role, India can convene countries around the shared need to scale up wind energy , which is already transforming communities around the world with clean electricity , green jobs and an influx of public/private capital to propel economic growth. It must be clearly understood that renewables are not only the best solution we have to fight climate change, but also to drive sustainable development and industrial policy . Global leadership in the energy transition must begin at home for India. Already the fourth-largest wind market in the world, India has tremendous potential to expand its domestic wind capacity . High-level targets have been set to reach 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, including 140 GW of wind energy . But recent annual growth has been dampened, averaging 1.74 GW over the last five years, due to bottlenecks around grid, downward price pressure and land availability . As this report demonstrates, policy corrections could enable an ambitious scenario of more than 26 GW in wind installations over the next five years through 2027. Authorities are already taking promising steps to realise a faster pace of growth, such as revising the wind tender mechanism from a reverse-bidding model to a closed-envelope model earlier this year, and publishing a clear roadmap for annual auctions in 2024 split by agency and quarter. The strength of India’s domestic market will in turn determine whether the country emerges as a power player in the wind industry’s global supply chain. Given the expansive growth for wind power ahead, GWEC foresees that global supply chain constraints will materialise from 2026 onward, due to a gap between the sector’s production capacity and forecast deployment pipelines. India can play a critical role here to ramp up manufacturing and export of wind components to supply the industry in Asia and beyond. Meanwhile, ongoing international dynamics – geopolitical tensions, an inflationary environment and From local wind power to global export hub: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2023-2027 14 the lessons learned from the price spikes and bottlenecks of the pandemic – have prompted countries to undertake a strategic shift to bolster local renewable energy supply chains. Industrial packages like the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Industrial Deal are designed to strengthen local supply chain investment and re- shore production activity . Against this backdrop of events, India has plenty of comparative advantages as a wind industry hub, such as an existing manufacturing base, favourable location for export and relatively attractive cost of labour. But to capitalise on India’s wind potential at home and its opportunities to become a global supply c