IEF-关键矿产前景比较（英文原版）.pdf

gid00002gid00048gid00034gid00048gid00046gid00047gid00001gid00133gid00131gid00133gid00134 Critical Minerals Outlooks Comparison A Report by the International Energy Forum and The Payne Institute of Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines A report by the International Energy Forum and The Payne Institute of Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines August 2023 ____________________________________________________________________________ Writen and produced by: Juliet Akamboe jsakamboe@mines.edu Ebenezer Manful-Sam manfulsam@mines.edu Felix Ayaburi fzayaburi@mines.edu Mason Hamilton mason.hamilton@ief.org Morgan Bazilian mbazilian@mines.edu ____________________________________________________________________________ About the International Energy Forum The International Energy Forum (IEF) is the world s largest international organization of energy ministers from 71 countries and includes both producing and consuming nations. The IEF has a broad mandate to examine al energy isues including oil and gas, clean and renewable energy, sustainability, energy transitions and new technologies, data transparency, and energy aces. Through the Forum and its asociated events, officials, industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and sustainability. ____________________________________________________________________________ About The Payne Institute The mision of the Payne Institute at Colorado Schol of Mines is to provide world-class scientific insights, helping to inform and shape public policy on earth resources, energy, and environment. The Institute was established with an endowment from Jim and Arlene Payne, and seeks to link the strong scientific and engineering research and expertise at Mines with issues related to public policy and national security. The Payne Institute extends to public policy Mines’ conviction that energy and the environment must – and can – fruitfuly coexist. _____________________________________________________________________________ 2 Table of Contents Introduction . 3 Key Findings 5 Aluminum . 5 Cobalt . 7 Coper . 9 Graphite . 11 Lithium . 13 Neodymium 15 Nickel . 16 Silver 18 Energy Scenarios 20 Climate Outcome Driven 20 Shared Economic Pathways 20 Sped of Transition and Technological Progres 20 Technology mixes . 20 Other technologies with influence 21 Resource Requirements . 21 Top Down vs. Botom Up . 23 Intensity and Resource Efficiency Asumptions 23 Sub-Technologies and Chemistry Shifts 23 Recycling . 25 Conclusions . 25 References . 27 Apendix: Backgrounds of Surveyed Reports 28 _____________________________________________________________________________ 3 Introduction Historicaly, the energy sector constituted only a minor part of critical minerals supply chains and markets. However, with the aceleration of energy transitions, clean energy technologies have rapidly emerged as the segment with the fastest growth in demand. This has captured public attention globally, and created various trade, market, and geopolitical issues. As a result, numerous analytical scenarios have ben produced to beter understand this rapidly changing and complex landscape. In a future trajectory aligned with climate goals, the proportion of total minerals demand acounted for by clean energy technologies wil rise significantly over the forthcoming two decades. Electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage technologies have already superseded consumer electronics to become the largest consumers of lithium, and they are projected to surpas stainles steel to become the primary end users of nickel by 2040, and battery anodes share of graphite demand has increased 250% since 2018. As a result, several quantitative demand models have ben developed to help understand the scale of growth, and whether material shortages wil become an obstacle to the deployment of clean energy technologies. This report is a non-comprehensive meta-analysis of 11 publicly available reports which include various assumptions for energy and technology scenarios, and their resulting critical mineral requirements. This exercise is meant to highlight key insights for critical minerals decisionmakers. The reports are from eight agencies and organizations across diferent geographies, spanning from 2019 to 2023. • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) o World Energy Transitions Outlok, 2023 o Geopolitics of the Energy Transition, 2023 o Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition, 2021 • International Energy Agency (IEA) o The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, 202 o Critical Minerals Market Review, 2023 • World Bank o Minerals for Climate Action, 2020 • Institute for Sustainable Future (ISF) o The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, 2019 • McKinsey advanced economies are projected to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, China by 2060, and all other nations by 2070 at the latest. Shared Economic Pathways The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were created as part of the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for climate policy issues. Each SSP embodies different assumptions about the global energy system s future, and consequently can be used to calculate mineral demand estimates. Speed of Transition and Technological Progress Other reports created scenarios that varied the speed and intensity of the energy transition, technological progress, and increases in both technology and resource efficiency. Technology mixes Technologies emphasized in these reports are unanimous, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage systems, and electrical grid expansion are all core components of these projections. These technologies are key to lowering greenhouse gas emissions and subsequently drive the demand growth for critical minerals throughout the projection period. _____________________________________________________________________________ 21 Other technologies with influence Other climate-oriented technologies like carbon capture use 2023), broadly discus how inovation wil affect demand for critical materials and the ned for a comprehensive policy framework that not only transforms energy systems but also protects people, livelihoods, and jobs. IRENA (2023), uniquely highlights the geopolitical aspects of critical minerals, including the concentration of production in a few countries and the potential for supply disruptions due to trade tensions or other factors. Al three reports from IRENA depict strategies to mitigate critical materials dependencies, including recycling, substitution, and diversification of supply sources. • IEA reports (202;2023) highlight the importance of critical minerals for the transition to a low-carbon energy system and identify potential risks and challenges associated with their supply and demand. IEA provides some of the more detailed analysis and deep dives into the key mineral demand and suply projections. Also, these reports provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of critical minerals investments and market trends, and they respond directly to the requests in the G7 Five-Point Plan for critical minerals security. • World Bank (2020) Minerals for Climate report examines the potential for different countries and regions to develop their own critical mineral resources and suply chains, and the potential implications for global trade and geopolitics. The paper is unique in its comprehensive analysis of the mineral intensity of the clean energy transition, its detailed examination of the potential environmental and social impacts of critical mineral production and disposal, and its global perspective on the implications of the clean energy transition for mineral markets, trade, and geopolitics. • University of Technology Sydney: Institute for Sustainable Futures, ISF (2019), offers forecasts regarding the future ned for metals, which are designed based on an agresive renewable energy situation. The study evaluates the suply uncertainties conected with the centralized production and reserves, the percentage of renewable energy in end-use, and the critical nature of the supply chain. Moreover, the report critically examines the identified impacts of mining on the environment, health, and human rights. • McKinsey & Company (2021) emphasizes the importance of sustainability in the transition to a net-zero emissions economy and how the industry should comply with or exceed the environmental, social, and governance standards. The paper provides recomendations for policymakers and industry leaders to ensure a secure and sustainable supply of critical minerals. The authors propose strategies for increasing the production of critical minerals, improving the recycling and reuse of these materials, and reducing the environmental and social impacts of mining and procesing these materials. • German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) (2021) draws on a combination of literature reviews, expert consultation, and scenario analysis to provide a comprehensive analysis of the critical materials required for the energy transition. The paper highlights some global perspectives including the importance of international cooperation and coordination in managing critical material suply chains. It also provides guidance to policymakers and other stakeholders on strategies for ensuring critical minerals availability and sustainability in a rapidly changing global landscape. _____________________________________________________________________________ 29 • Energy Transitions Commision (ETC) (2023) This paper introduces four hypothetical energy pathways to probe into the prospective demand for critical minerals during the Energy Transition. These include the Baseline Decarbonization Scenario, the Rapid Innovation Scenario, the Resource Efficiency Scenario, and the Delayed Transition Scenario. The Baseline Decarbonization Scenario predicates a net-zero economy by mid- century, congruent with the Energy Transitions Commission s projections, coupled with conservative assumptions about technology s efficiency and innovative capacity, material intensity, and recycling rates. The findings of this scenario may be interpreted as the peak possible requirement for materials during the Energy Transition. The Rapid Innovation Scenario, on the other hand, posits a spedier trajectory of inovation and tech development than the Baseline Decarbonization Scenario, which results in reduced material demands for the Energy Transition. The Resource Eficiency Scenario prioritizes resource conservation and recycling, leading to a decrease in the material requirements for the Energy Transition. The Delayed Transition Scenario anticipates a more gradual evolution towards a low-carbon energy framework, thereby reducing the imediate demand for critical minerals but potentially amplifying it in the long run. • Catholic University of Luven (KU Luven) (202) The paper highlights that Europe s ambitions to cultivate domestic production of clean energy technologies wil escalate its demand for an array of metals. This includes bolstering existing base metal markets like aluminum, copper, and nickel, and paving the way for novel commodity markets such as lithium and rare earth elements, refered to in the paper as Tier 1 (shortlist) or Tier 2 (longlist) minerals. While this paper does not explicitly define its own energy scenarios, it refers to two primary energy scenarios established by the International Energy Agency (IEA): the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS).