【推荐】通过24x7清洁电力购买协议实现全电网脱碳之路（英文原版）.pdf

LDES Council A path towards full grid decarbonization with 24/7 clean Power Purchase AgreementsPublished in May 2022 by the LDES Council. Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from our website: www.ldescouncil.com. This report was authored by the LDES Council in collaboration with McKinsey and 2. It is not their intention that any such form of coordination will be adopted. Whilst the contents of the report and its abstract implications for the industry generally can be discussed once they have been prepared, individual strategies remain proprietary, confidential and the responsibility of each participant. Participants are reminded that, as part of the invariable practice of the LDES Council and the EU competition law obligations to which membership activities are subject, such strategic and confidential information must not be shared or coordinated — including as part of this report. 2Contents Acronyms . Preface Executive summary . I. The need for 24/7 clean PPAs . II. Barriers to 24/7 clean PPAs III. Proposed quality assessment framework and implementation Laying the foundation for a quality assessment of 24/7 clean PPAs . Technology deployment, costs, and decarbonization impact of quality ratings Technical considerations for implementation IV. Ensuring impact is captured V. The path forward Appendix A. Modelling methodology Appendix B. Survey results . i ii iv 1 7 11 12 16 21 29 37 40 43 A path towards full grid decarbonization with 24/7 clean Power Purchase Agreements | LDES Council, McKinsey actual decarbonization impact depends on the load shape and market-specific emissions intensity. by applying a standardized assessment allowing for different levels of ambition; to this end, a quality assessment framework within which the industry can define a set of standards for 24/7 clean PPAs is proposed in this report. This will establish a pathway to 24/7 clean PPAs with increasing levels of clean supply- demand matching. “Entry Level” 24/7 clean PPAs are defined to have low entry barriers and cost in the range of today’s average power market prices in many regions (around 70 USD per MWh), which should accelerate adoption. At the other end of the scale, “Platinum” PPAs represent the highest ambition level (approaching 100% clean supply-demand matching) and are designed for those looking to accelerate decarbonization and technology deployment: the cost levels of those high-quality 24/7 clean PPAs is expected to decline by 30 — 40% over the next 10 years as technology matures and scale increases, closing the gap to market prices. To maximize decarbonization impact, 24/7 clean PPAs would benefit from being officially certified by an independent organization based on up-front validation of contract terms and / or proposed sizing of the designated assets. In addition, continuous validation of the actual level of clean supply-demand matching throughout the PPA lifetime ensures consistent execution. The assessment shows that full clean supply- demand matching is not always the optimal target: the compromise between 24/7 load matching and system-level decarbonization would need to be carefully considered when structuring the contracts. A case example shows 10 — 30% cost reduction potential and an uplift of around 100% system-level CO 2 abatement when dispatch is partly based on power market prices and hourly marginal grid emissions factors. This shows that deviations from consumers’ 24/7 load matching can unlock system-level benefits and avoid sub-optimal solutions that may emerge from 100% load matching for each off-taker. Key messages of the report A path towards full grid decarbonization with 24/7 clean Power Purchase Agreements | LDES Council, McKinsey actual decarbonization impact depends on the load shape and market-specific emissions intensity. 3 Based on CAISO (California Independent System Operator). • While there are multiple solutions that can address both these challenges, 24/7 clean PPAs are amongst the most immediately impactful as these only rely on a contractual relationship between buyer and PPA provider. Lack of standards and high cost premium relative to average power market prices are key barriers to deploying 24/7 clean PPAs today • Lack of standards: The lack of industry- agreed definitions of 24/7 clean PPAs creates a significant barrier to consistently rewarding players that procure 24/7 clean power. • Cost: 24/7 renewables procurement with clean supply-demand matching based on Li-ion storage comes at a significant cost premium (for example, in the California case example 3 the cost would increase by min. 5x compared to average power market prices). LDES has the potential to significantly lower this cost premium; however, more widespread deployment of these technologies is needed to drive down the cost curve. A standardized quality assessment framework can help reward industry players to move beyond standard PPAs, while different quality levels help to support affordability • PPA providers and buyers would benefit from a 24/7 clean PPAs benchmark based on a standardized assessment framework and classify different quality levels to ensure that decarbonization leaders get the appropriate recognition (e.g., for adding new clean capacity on the grid). • Attention needs to be paid to five quality dimensions: the level of clean supply-demand matching, time granularity, geographical granularity, and additionality of renewables and flexible or clean dispatchable capacity. Executive summary A path towards full grid decarbonization with 24/7 clean Power Purchase Agreements | LDES Council, McKinsey − Silver is designed for players that seek to further accelerate the transition and support new capacity deployment: this includes requirements such as additionality of renewables and flexible capacity; − Gold and Platinum levels set higher ambitions, with Gold requiring a minimum of 90% supply-demand matching and Platinum calling for matching higher than 98%. Today, 24/7 clean PPAs come at a premium, but cost levels are expected to become competitive as technology costs come down due to scaling of novel flexibility technologies • By 2025, meeting the “Silver” quality rating (minimum supply-demand matching of 80%) implies only a 10 — 15% cost-premium relative to today’s average wholesale market price and clean power certificates (based on a 2021 CAISO example, which would result in a Silver PPA cost of around 70 USD per MWh). For Platinum requirements with 100% supply-demand matching, the estimated cost premium would rise to 40 — 50%. • In addition, over time, 24/7 clean PPA costs are expected to decrease rapidly due to progress in technology maturity, scale effects, and further improved economics as flexibility assets tap into additional revenue streams: technology-related cost alone is expected to decline by 30 — 40% over the next 10 years for Platinum PPAs. • Achieving attractive cost levels for 24/7 clean PPA solutions requires optimization of the technology mix, ideally using a portfolio of wind and solar power as the generation sources. The analysis shows that using solar- only generation can lead to 3 times higher cost of electricity compared to a solar-wind-hybrid setup in case of a baseload demand profile. In general, the correlation between load shape and available renewable supply is a relevant cost driver. For example: switching from a baseload profile to a typical office load profile could imply a cost increase of around 25% in a wind-dominant region like the United Kingdom (UK), and a cost decrease of around 5% in a solar-dominant region like California. In some markets, CO 2 impact and cost would benefit from optimized dispatch patterns not focusing on load- matching. To increase attractiveness and consistency, 24/7 clean PPAs would need to be officially certified by an independent organization based on validation of contract terms and / or proposed sizing of the designated assets • The assessment shows that often there is a compromise between full clean supply-demand matching and system decarbonization. If the operator has the option to optimize dispatch based on power market prices and hourly grid emissions, costs can be reduced by 10 — 30% and system-level CO 2 abatement increased by around 100%. This is possible through market arbitrage and surplus generation optimization in markets where market prices and emissions intensity are highly correlated. Thus, once the system has been designed and certified off-takers could consider lowering the load-matching constraint, e.g., to 80 — 90%, to amplify system-level impact while keeping the Platinum rating. A path towards full grid decarbonization with 24/7 clean Power Purchase Agreements | LDES Council, McKinsey & Company v