国际能源署-新西兰2023能源政策审查-160页.pdf

Energy Policy Review New Zealand 2023 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t an updated New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy to replace the existing strategy (that expired in mid-2022) and better align with the government’s climate goals; and a renewable energy work programme, which will establish plans for expanding the role of renewables in New Zealand’s energy system. IEA. CC BY 4.0. 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 EN ER G Y I N SI G H T S Electricity in the energy transition New Zealand’s electricity system is the cornerstone of the government’s strategy for decarbonising the energy sector. The government plans to promote the electrification of end-use sectors such as buildings, transport and industry, leveraging a renewables-based electricity system. The New Zealand Energy Strategy 2011-2021 set a target for 90% renewable electricity by 2025. Subsequently, the government set an aspirational goal of 100% renewable electricity by 2030. Moreover, the first ERP built on the government’s aspirational goal in electricity and set a target of 50% of total final energy consumption from renewables by 2035. Making the electricity system fit-for-purpose is a top priority for the government. New Zealand is fortunate to already have a high proportion of renewable electricity, which is currently over 80% of electricity production. However, due to the electricity system s heavy reliance on hydropower, its key challenge is coping with a “dry year”, when hydro inflows are low. When a “dry year” occurs, and existing hydropower catchments do not receive enough rainfall, backup is currently provided by fossil fuel generation. This issue will become increasingly salient as the country strives to achieve a 100% renewables- based power grid and relies more on electricity to meet its decarbonisation targets. In response, the government launched the NZ Battery Project in 2020. The project will provide comprehensive advice on the technical, environmental and commercial feasibility of potential energy storage projects, including, but not limited to, the Lake Onslow pumped hydro project. Feasibility studies for the project are expected to be completed early in 2023 and solutions to be in place in the 2030s. Reaching the aspirational 100% target for renewables in electricity by 2030 and the 50% economy-wide renewables target by 2035 will require a massive buildout of new renewables generation capacity. Given limited options for large new hydro capacity and modest volumes of economically feasible geothermal, a sizeable share of the required new capacity will need to come from wind and solar. In New Zealand, the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) plays a major role in determining the type of electricity generation that gets consented. While the RMA sets national direction on avoiding, remedying and mitigating the adverse effects of activities on the environment, it allows communities to decide how to manage their own environment through regional and district resource management plans. The government plans to repeal the RMA and replace it with three new pieces of legislation. The objectives of this reform are to better meet environmental protections, climate adaptation needs and Māori protections while also improving the efficiency of siting and reducing permitting complexity. Following public consultations, the aim is for the main reforms to be passed into law before the 2023 central government election. There is considerable potential in other areas of renewables development, like offshore wind electricity generation. There is currently no targeted regulatory framework for offshore wind, and the country does not yet have any offshore wind sites or developments. However, a specific offshore energy regulatory regime is under development and is expected to be in place by 2024. Offshore energy development will be considered as part of the 2022-2024 process of creating a long-term Energy Strategy. IEA. CC BY 4.0. 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 Phasing out fossil fuels As a step towards addressing climate change and creating a sustainable future for New Zealand, in April 2018, the government announced that no additional offshore oil and gas exploration permits would be granted. New Zealand’s more ambitious climate targets will require lower emissions from fossil fuels driven by substantial declines in consumption. Emissions reductions are likely to occur through both reduced demand (for example, greater energy efficiency and electrification) and lower carbon intensity (for example, blending in renewable gases or biofuels). A major part of this strategy will be enacted through the Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry (GIDI) Fund, which was established in 2020 as part of the government’s Covid Response and Recovery Fund. The aim was to accelerate the decarbonisation of industrial process heat and contribute to the Covid-19 recovery by stimulating the domestic economy and supporting employment. In addition to the previous GIDI Fund targeted at industrial process heat projects, funding will now also include support for replacing inefficient industrial and commercial equipment and help replace fossil fuels in commercial space and water heating with renewable energy. The government is especially working to reduce the demand for coal for process heat and electricity generation. In addition to GIDI-backed projects, this includes investigating options to manage the dry-year risk through the New Zealand Battery Project (to displace backup fossil generation), a proposed ban on new low- and medium-temperature coal boilers, as well as phasing out all existing coal boilers by 2037. Currently, natural gas plays an important role in the electricity sector alongside coal-fired generation in firming or backing up hydro and variable renewable generation. The pace for phasing out natural gas and the “end-state” of the electricity sector is currently uncertain. They are dependent on a range of factors, such as emissions pricing, technological adaptation and other economic factors. The GTP will help to establish transition pathways for decarbonising the gas sector in line with the first three emissions budgets defined in the ERP. To address oil demand, New Zealand also has a number of policies to increase vehicle efficiency and promote the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) into its transport mix. Key recommendations The government of New Zealand should:  Accelerate the development of the long-term Energy Strategy and related sectoral strategies to clarify the macro level policy settings and encourage necessary investments as soon as possible.  Assess the relative cost of abatement across energy end-use sectors when developing the long-term Energy Strategy, prioritising overall abatement over the full decarbonisation of any particular sector. IEA. CC BY 4.0. 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 EN ER G Y I N SI G H T S  Move quickly to clarify regulatory regimes for renewables generation, such as the Resource Management Act and an offshore wind framework, to jump-start investments in additional renewables capacity.  Increase policy focus on the transport sector, especially measures that will deliver structural change to diesel demand. IEA. CC BY 4.0. 15 EN ER G Y I N SI G H T S 2. General energy policy Key data (2021) Total energy supply (TES): 829.3 PJ, +11% since 2011 TES by source: oil 34%, geothermal 25%, natural gas 17%, hydro 11%, coal 7.6%, bioenergy and waste 4.9%, solar and wind 1.4% Energy intensity per capita (TES/capita): 161.8 GJ/capita (IEA average: 166.7 GJ/capita); -5% since 2010 Energy intensity per GDP (TES/GDP): 4.11 MJ per 2015 USD PPP (IEA average: 3.74 MJ per USD); -17% change since 2011 Total final consumption (TFC): 559.8 PJ; +7% since 2011 TFC by sector: industry 42%, transport 36%, buildings 22% Source: IEA (2022). Country overview New Zealand (Aotearoa in Māori) is located in the south-western Pacific Ocean, around 2 000 kilometres (km) east of Australia. Its territory expands over 268 021 km² and is composed of two main islands, the North Island and the South Island, which are separated by the Cook Strait, as well as other small islands. New Zealand is located on the Ring of Fire and is crossed by the Alpine fault, which makes the islands vulnerable to earthquakes and volcanic activity. The country’s remoteness explains the high number of endemic fauna and flora species. New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone, 15 times its land area, is one of the largest in the world. New Zealand’s population was 5.1 million in 2022, 16% higher than in 2012 (StatsNZ, 2022). Annual population growth has been steady, at around 2% since 2014, but dropped sharply in 2021 to reach 0.6%. With 19 people per square kilometre, New Zealand has a relatively low population density. Eighty-three per cent of the population lives in urban areas. The main cities are Wellington (the capital), Auckland (the most populated) and Hamilton in the North Island, and Christchurch in the South Island. Three-quarters of the population lives in the North Island. English and Māori are the country’s official languages. Its currency is the New Zealand dollar (NZD, exchange rate of NZD 1.59 per USD 1 in August 2022). New Zealand is a constitutional monarchy – Charles III is the King of New Zealand and the head of state. The King is represented by the Governor-General. The government is formed from an elected House of Representatives and advises the Prime Minister, who is the source of all executive legal authority in New Zealand and acts on the advice of the IEA. CC BY 4.0. 2. GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 16 government. The next parliamentary general election must be held before January 2024. The country is divided into 16 regions: 11 have their own councils and 5 have territorial authorities, both elected. The Treaty of Waitangi, signed in 1840 between the British Crown and a number of Māori chiefs, is today widely accepted to be a constitutional document laying out the relationship between the government and Māori. It includes a commitment to protect and preserve Māori culture and way of life while giving the Crown the right to govern the country (New Zealand, Ministry of Justice, 2022). Economy In 2021, New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was USD 46 389, below the OECD average of USD 48 754. The employment rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 79.1%, the fourth-highest among OECD countries (OECD, 2022) after Iceland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The Covid-19 pandemic caused GDP to fall by 1.3% in 2020, but in 2021 the annual growth rate reached 4.6%, well above pre-pandemic levels (World Bank, 2021). In 2020, service industries (trade, media, finance, rent, health, education) accounted for 65.6% of GDP, goods-producing (manufacturing, electricity, gas, water and waste, construction) for 19.5%, taxes for 8.4% and the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining) for 6.5% (StatsNZ, 2020). Energy production, supply and demand New Zealand’s domestic production of energy covers three-quarters of total energy supply. Imported fossil fuels cover the last quarter. Geothermal is the largest single source of energy production (204 petajoules [PJ] in 2021), followed by natural gas (143 PJ), hydro (87 PJ), coal (67 PJ) and oil (43 PJ). Lower amounts of energy are also produced from wind (12 PJ). From 2011 to 2021, oil, coal and natural gas production dropped by 57%, 44% and 2%, respectively, and geothermal increased by 37%. Over the same period, domestic energy production from wind and solar (from a lower base) grew by 35%. Figure 2.1 Overview of New Zealand’s energy production, supply and demand, 2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0. Three-quarters of New Zealand’s total energy supply is covered by domestic production. The remaining quarter consists of imported oil. Notes: TFC = total final consumption. Source: IEA (2022). 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Production Total energy supply TFC (by fuel) TFC (by sector) PJ Geothermal Wind Hydro District heat Electricity Biofuels and waste Natural gas Oil Coal Transformations and losses Industry Transport Buildings Imports IEA. CC BY 4.0. 2. GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 17 EN ER G Y I N SI G H T S Total energy supply New Zealand’s total energy supply (TES) increased by 11%, from 747 PJ in 2011 to 829 PJ in 2021. In 2020, TES dropped to 824 PJ driven by the Covid-19 pandemic, but bounced back in 2021, though to a lower level than in 2019 (Figure 2.2). Fossil fuels accounted for 59% of New Zealand’s energy supply in 2021 (compared to an IEA average of 78%), a gradually declining share since the beginning of the 2010s. Oil covers the largest share of TES, and from 2011 to 2021, the share of oil in TES was constant at around 34% (with the exception of a drop in 2020 due to lower consumption in transport amid the pandemic). Over the same period, the share of coal fluctuated at around an average of 7%, while the share of gas decreased from 19% to 17%. From 2011 to 2021, the share of wind in TES slightly grew, from 0.9% to 1.1%, while the share of bioenergy and waste slightly fell from 5.8% to 4.9%. Solar remained nearly flat at 0.1%. Figure 2.2 Total energy supply by source in New Zealand, 2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0. Fossil fuels covered 59% of New Zealand’s total energy supply in 2021. After a gradual increase, New Zealand’s energy supply has been relatively stable since 2015. Source: IEA (2022). Energy demand Total final consumption (TFC) increased from 505 PJ in 2005 to 611 PJ in 2019 before falling to 561 PJ in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic (Figure 2.3). In 2021, energy consumption did not rebound and remained at a similar level to 2020. New Zealand’s energy demand is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with oil covering almost half (48% in 2021) of the country’s TFC, followed by natural gas (17%) and coal (4%). Electricity accounts for one-quarter of the country’s TFC. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 PJ Wind Geothermal Hydro Bioenergy and waste Natural gas Oil Coal IEA. CC BY 4.0. 2. GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 18 Figure 2.3 Total final consumption by source in New Zealand, 2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0. In 2020, fossil fuels represented 69% of New Zealand’s total final consumption, which dropped in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and did not rebound in 2021. Source: IEA (2022). In 2021, New Zealand’s electricity was generated mainly using hydro (54%), followed by geothermal (19%