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April 2023 The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain A «what-would-it-take» analysis of the European supply chain’s ability to support ambitious capacity targets towards 2030 A Rystad Energy report in cooperation with WindEurope April 2023 2 About this report Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 This report has been produced by Rystad Energy in cooperation with WindEurope. It is focused on Europe’s wind supply chain and its ability to support ambitious capacity targets for 2030. The outset of the report is based on WindEurope’s capacity outlook for wind power in Europe in its “2030 Targets Scenario” presented in the “Wind energy in Europe 2022 – Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027” report published in February 2023. Using this capacity outlook as an exogenous factor, Rystad Energy has applied its models and industry knowledge to estimate the resulting demand for components, services and materials along the value chain towards 2030. Through extensive research on the current and announced supply capacities, Rystad Energy aims to identify potential supply chain risks and bottlenecks as well as assess the urgency of the necessary expansions. As such, all analysis in this report has been done by Rystad Energy, if not explicitly mentioned otherwise. Rystad Energy has also contributed to the background material in this report, describing the current status of the European wind market and its supply chain, in addition to describing the components and materials that are essential for the wind industry. Based on the findings in this report, WindEurope has provided its policy recommendations. 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP skilled labor may serve as a bottleneck for specialized parts of the wind supply chain; other vessel segments such as foundation and cable installation, service operation vessels (SOVs) and anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels for floating wind are expected to need fleet expansions; ports need upgrading to support the large-scale build-out of offshore wind and the industrialization of floating wind; and floating wind would require mooring line manufacturing to be ramped up significantly. Material demand is expected to grow nearly four-fold towards 2030 if targets are to be reached. Assessed according to their relative importance in wind, the expected growth trajectory towards 2030 and relative score on reliability, affordability and sustainability, steel, copper and rare earth minerals are seen as most strategically important. The latter two are assessed as at most risk, due to their rapid demand growth, Europe’s relatively high import reliance for these materials, and their critical role in cables and turbines, respectively. What would it take for Europe’s supply chain to deliver on wind energy ambitions? Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Executive summary Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP industry knowledge; and expected technology trends for onshore and offshore wind. Supply for components and services is based on our bottom-up, facility-by-facility research. We use announced manufacturing capacities by facilities and manufacturers, and figures reported by suppliers regarding capacities by technology, geography, and more. Supply is measured based on both current capacities and announced expansions. Supply-demand balances are determined based on the modeled demand and identified supply from the two approaches above. Material demand is estimated based on Rystad Energy’s extensive energy material models, applying material intensities per components and gigawatts to WindEurope’s 2030 Targets Scenario capacity outlook and the resulting component demand modeled by Rystad Energy. 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP International Monetary Fund, January 2023 Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Current status of the market Figure 8: Global prices for selected critical materials in low-carbon industries Indexed 2019=100 Europe did not only face an energy crisis in 2022, but also the global inflation crisis, affecting critical materials for the energy transition. The main driver was a combination of different economic and geopolitical events across the globe. The end of the Covid-19 crisis in most regions led to a strong activity recovery in key sectors such as the energy transition related industries, and thus increased demand for critical raw materials. While most regions were recovering from the crisis, China faced another major wave, resulting in restrictions on its economy. As China remains the world s largest supplier of most of these materials, the slowdown in its economy had a significant impact on global trade flows of materials and led to production shortages. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created an energy crisis, putting further pressure on material producers. Another consequence has been sanctions on exports of key materials produced by Russia. As a result, sharp price increases have been recorded for materials critical to the renewable energy industry, such as cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements. Overall, the past year has highlighted a worrying scenario for critical raw materials supply – due to the lack of geographic diversification in the production of each material, their reliability and affordability are constantly threatened by any economic, political or geopolitical uncertainty. This vulnerability is even more true for Europe, which is heavily dependent on imported raw materials, often from quasi- monopolistic suppliers in third countries. In this regard, raw materials are the oil and gas of the energy transition, and in the context of the current war in Ukraine, there could be a similarity between Russia s use of energy as a weapon and the blocking of raw material supplies potentially used to impede Europe s energy transition. Mitigating the risks associated with access to critical raw materials therefore becomes crucial. 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP Companies financial reporting. Figure 10: Revenue changes for selected wind turbine suppliers Percentage change Figure 11: Adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin for selected wind turbine suppliers Million EUR Percentage -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 Quarterly change Yearly change -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA margin 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP Rystad Energy RenewableCube Figure 12: REPowerEU pillars Figure 13: Existing and estimated need for solar PV and wind capacity Gigawatts (GW AC ) Phase out dependency on Russian fossil fuels Diversify fossil fuels supplies Accelerate renewable energy development Reduce energy consumption 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2022 2030 2022 2030 Solar PV Wind ~$430 billion investment needed ~$530 billion investment needed 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP EU Commission Figure 14: The four pillars of the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP EU Commission GDIP first pillar – Conducive regulation facilitation Net Zero Industry Act • Implementation by each Member State of a national authority acting as a centralized ‘one-stop-shop’ for permitting • Permitting delays capped in accordance with the previous Council Regulation • Definition of ‘Net-zero strategic projects’ to be granted priority status in the permitting process and potentially given the overriding public interest status • Framework for accounting sustainability and resilience criteria when awarding projects through auctions • Implementation of ‘Net-Zero Industry Academies’ to design courses to ensure a properly skilled workforce Policy packages Relevant measures for the renewables industry Critical Raw Materials Act • Definition by each Member State of a national authority acting as a centralized “one-stop shop“ for the permitting process of net-zero technology manufacturing projects. The national authority will oversee the coordination, facilitation and digitization of the permitting process • Capping of the permitting process for those projects at 12 months for an annual production capacity of less than 1 GW, 18 months for more than 1 GW • ‘Net-zero strategic projects’ to be granted priority status for permitting, reduced delays, and potentially, the overriding public interest status • Framework for accounting sustai ability and resilience criteria when awardi g projects through auctions • Implementation of ‘Net-Zero Industry Academies’ to design courses to ensure a properly skilled workforce • Identification by the EU of a list of critical and strategic raw materials for which domestic capacities should be by 2030 of at least (as a share of annual EU consumption): 10% for extraction, 40% for processing, 15% for recycling • Capping of each strategic raw material dependance on a single third country at 65% of its annual consumption, at any relevant processing stage • Permitting procedures simplification for critical raw materials supply chain projects in the EU • Selected strategic projects will benefit from support to access finance and shorter permitting timeframes (24 months if involving extraction and 12 months if involving processing and recycling) Electricity Market Design Reform • Facilitation of power-purchase agreement (PPA) deployment through public support, such as governmental financial guarantees for offtakers • Common framework for direct support schemes through the two-way contracts for difference (CfD) mechanism • Combination of CfDs and PPAs is allowed, and electricity producers keep the right to sell their electricity on the merchant market • Incentives for demand response and storage deployment • Non-application of the inframarginal electricity revenue cap as a market long-term feature • Introduction of Transmission Access Guarantees for hybrid offshore wind farms* 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP European Commission, Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023 – Final Report 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP Companies’ annual reports and websites. 109 124 157 154 166 171 175 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Manufacturing capacity (GW) Shipment (GW) We estimate that the global wind turbine manufacturing capacity is approximately 166 GW, about 8% higher compared to 2021’s tally. Europe contributed for about 16% of the global manufacturing capacity in 2022. Europe’s turbine manufacturing capacity is discussed in detail on pages 28 to 31. Expansions last year were seen in Europe and China, with multiple Chinese suppliers unveiling their capability to make offshore wind turbines in the range of 12 to 16 MW. In Europe, Siemens Gamesa opened its French turbine manufacturing base in Le Havre in March 2022. Meanwhile, multiple companies in China, such as Envision, CSSC Haizhuang Windpower, Shanghai Electric, MingYang and Windey, expanded their manufacturing capacities with new facilities, totaling more than 8 GW. Most of these Chinese expansions are for offshore wind turbines, with turbine capacities ranging from 10 to 13 MW. The manufacturing capacity in 2021 saw a decline compared to 2020 as some plants capable of making 2 MW turbines were shut down due to a lack of orders. On the other hand, the steep ramp-up in manufacturing capacity observed in 2018-2020 was mainly driven by a significant wind installation ramp-up in China, where about 65 GW of onshore wind was installed in 2020 and about 14 GW of offshore wind capacity was deployed in the country in 2021. We forecast that by the end of this year, global wind turbine manufacturing capacity will stand at 171 GW, with further expansions led by China. This tally is envisaged to increase to 175 GW next year, with turbine manufacturing for offshore wind driving expansions. In 2022, the utilization rate dropped to about 55%, as slow permitting and inflation affected turbine manufacturers’ sales and deliveries. This tally is lower compared to 2021’s utilization rate of more than 65%, when global wind shipments reached more than 100 GW for both onshore and offshore wind turbines. 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP Rystad Energy RenewableCube; Vestas annual report 2022; Siemens Gamesa activity report Q1-Q4 2022; GE annual report 2022; Companies’ annual reports and websites. Figure 19: Wind turbine manufacturers’ capacity in 2022 Gigawatts (GW) 166 Gigawatts The top five wind turbine manufacturers account for more than half of the global wind turbine manufacturing capacity. Vestas leads with more than 20 GW of manufacturing capacity, while China’s largest wind turbine maker Goldwind sits on the second position with about 18 GW. Vestas’ Western competitors, including General Electric and Siemens Gamesa, stand in the third and fourth place, respectively, with a combined manufacturing capacity of more than 30 GW. Another Chinese manufacturer, Envision, holds the fifth position with almost 14 GW. With the rising installation demand in recent years in China, many other Chinese OEMs ramped up their manufacturing capacity. Outside of Goldwind and Envision, other Chinese OEMs such as MingYang and Windey are within the top ten rank of global wind turbine manufacturers. Regarding shipments, Vestas leads with more than 13 GW of turbines shipped last year, followed by Goldwind and Envision, which shipped more than 20 GW of turbines combined last year. Siemens Gamesa delivered more than 8 GW of turbines, while GE delivered only about 7.5 GW of turbines last year, a 45% drop compared to its previous year’s turbine shipments of almost 12 GW. 13.3 11.8 8.5 8.2 7.5 Vestas Goldwind Envision Siemens Gamesa GE Figure 20: Top five turbine manufacturers’ shipment* in 2022 Gigawatts (GW) 55 Contacts Rystad Energy – The State of the European Wind Energy Supply Chain – April 2023 Appendix Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre VP Companies’ annual reports and websites; Chi