构建中国统一的全国电力市场体系-IEA(英文版）.pdf

Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Pathways for spot power markets The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European nullmmission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Abstract PAGE | 3 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. Abstract Power markets are an instrument used globally to ensure electricity security while maintaining affordability and incentivising decarbonisation. The People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) has been making big steps towards implementing markets, and the goals announced in 2020 of carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 have added momentum to expand their footprint. Provinces have taken a leading role in designing and implementing markets. To improve sharing of resources, the guidance to implement a unified national market system pushes for more co-ordination between provinces. The main audience of this report is policy makers in China and all experts intending to contribute to power sector reforms. Other readers will also find information on the how the power sector and, in particular, power markets operate today in China and may evolve in the next decade. This report examines the role of power markets in China and the pathways to develop a national market. The analysis focuses on short-term markets because they have the potential to unlock flexibility the system needs in light of renewables growth and changing weather patterns. The report provides recommendations to improve markets’ co-ordination across the country as well as within the provinces. Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Acknowledgements PAGE | 4 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. Acknowledgements, contributors and credits The study was prepared by the Renewable Integration and Secure Electricity Unit (RISE) in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was designed and directed by Jacques Warichet. The work benefited from strategic guidance by Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security, and Pablo Hevia-Koch, Acting Head of RISE. The lead authors of the report were Jacques Warichet, Zoe Hungerford, Camille Paillard and Zhiyu Yang. The modelling work was performed by Zoe Hungerford. Haneul Kim and Jinpyung Kim contributed to the analysis. Anna Kalista provided essential support. Other IEA colleagues provided valuable inputs and feedback (in alphabetical order): Xiushan Chen, Conor Gask, Rena Kuwahata, Rebecca McKimm, Ermi Miao, Jonathan Sinton and Dan Wetzel. This report was produced with the financial assistance of the Energy Foundation under the IEA’s Clean Energy Transitions Programme (CETP). The authors would like to thank the Energy Foundation China team, in particular Feng Zhou and Linan Peng for their help in liaising with Chinese experts and co-hosting the events contributing to the success of this work. The authors are grateful for the comments and feedback from the following experts who reviewed the report (in alphabetical order): Peter Børre Eriksen Ea Energy Analyses Lars Møllenbach Bregnbæk Ea Energy Analyses Henrik Bruun Martens Royal Danish Embassy in Beijing Max Dupuy Regulatory Assistance Project Nicolas Fatras University of Southern Denmark Sharon Feng Azure International Wei Feng Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology Shuo Gao RMI Geir Hermansen Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation Anders Hove Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Flora Kan EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform Randi Kristiansen United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Yan Qin Refinitiv Kaare Sandholt Energy Research Institute of Academy of Macroeconomic Research Sune Kåre Sørensen Royal Danish Embassy in Beijing Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Acknowledgements PAGE | 5 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. Helena Uhde EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform Jiahai Yuan North China Electric Power University Jingjie Zhang China Electricity Council Siyu Zhang State Grid Energy Research Institute Jacob Zhao British Embassy in Beijing Feng Zhou Energy Foundation Qing Zhou RMI Special thanks go to the members of the China Energy Transformation Outlook (CETO) team for sharing valuable information with the authors. The authors would also like to thank Erin Crum for editing the manuscript; the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular Astrid Dumond and Therese Walsh; and the maps team, in particular Charner Ramsey and Evan Pelz, for their assistance. Finally, the authors would like to express their gratitude to the China Desk for their continuous support, as well as to the Strategic Initiatives Office for making this study possible. Thanks also to Alejandro Hernandez, former Head of RISE, for helping shape the initial work proposal. This work reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect those of IEA’s individual member countries or of the Energy Foundation or of any particular contributor. Comments and questions on this report are welcome and can be addressed to camille.paillard@iea.org. Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Table of contents PAGE | 6 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. Table of contents Executive summary . 7 Background and motivation 12 Power markets in China’s power sector transformation 15 The push for power markets in China 16 Spot power markets at the provincial and cross-provincial level . 22 Designing a national spot power market supporting China’s policy objectives . 36 Models for market integration. 36 Assessing and selecting a model for China’s national spot market . 47 Transitioning towards a national spot market in China . 56 Implementing a secondary market model 56 Reinforcing national institutions for a national market . 62 Recommendations 65 National co-ordination of the power sector 65 Advancing regional and provincial markets . 66 Annex 69 Modelling methodology 69 Abbreviations and acronyms 75 Units of measurement 75 Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Executive summary PAGE | 7 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. Executive summary China’s latest power sector reforms place electricity markets on the centre stage Markets are taking a growing role in the power system of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”). Although administrative mechanisms have been the main driver for China’s power sector to achieve China’s energy and climate policy objectives, benchmarking and competition among coal-fired plants have improved the efficiency and environmental attributes of electricity. The last major round of reforms started in 2015 gave a decisive nudge to markets to incentivise flexibility as the power system transforms. Increased participation in markets on both the supply and demand sides can be expected to continue as the 14th Five-Year plan (2021-2025) aims to give a leading role to markets. Power sector reforms seek a balance between optimisation of resources across the country and protection of local industries, between stable, affordable electricity prices and active new capacity investment, and between energy transition and secure electricity supply. Over the last three decades, several rounds of reforms took place. They initially aimed at easing investment in new generation capacity to sustain China’s economic growth, before addressing the efficiency of the power supply system and environmental aspects. After the power shortages of 2021 and 2022, the security narrative has taken a growing role in the national government guidance. The mid-to-long-term (MLT) markets are the most developed form of markets in China. Launched under the 2015 reform, MLT contracts have gradually replaced the administrative allocation of hours to generators. Today, MLT contracts cover half of the electricity consumed and about four-fifths of the traded volume. Although the most common contracts have a duration of one year to one month, shorter and longer duration contracts are appearing, and these can now be traded directly between consumers and generators or on power exchanges. Short-term markets have not achieved their full potential despite the possibilities they bring to unlock flexibility. The 2015 reform included the deployment of spot power markets (day-ahead and intraday) to implement economic dispatch and unlock flexibility from supply and demand resources. In market-based systems, these short-term markets play a central role in price formation and support electricity security, for example during the European winter 2022-2023 amid falling gas supply. In China, the first provincial spot market pilots were launched in 2019, with some of them operating continuously now. Spot markets are expanding across the country, but their share in trade Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Executive summary PAGE | 8 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. remains small and the connection with other established markets (MLT, ancillary services) is in practice still being completed. Better sharing of resources across the country requires national co-ordination of local markets. The uneven geographical distribution of resources and demand in China has led to national projects to transfer power across the country. These interprovincial flows are supported by firm, unidirectional MLT contracts. The 2015 reform gave autonomy to provinces to define markets at the provincial level. The resulting market designs, which may diverge significantly, in combination with local economic incentives favour intra-provincial trade. Cost-effective sharing of resources will require more flexible arrangements and integration of the different products with varying geographical and time granularity. Pilots of interprovincial and regional spot markets are now being deployed and can be the foundation of a more unified system. China aims to build a unified national power market by 2030 China targets a co-ordinated system of markets at the national level. While preserving the role of provinces in designing their local markets, the guidance released in 2022 by the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) – Document No. 118 – requires the creation of a multilayer market architecture with a national component. This system, to be initially established by 2025 and completed by 2030, aims to co- ordinate existing markets before enabling their integration in the future. Existing markets can be the foundation of a national market system in China. A national spot market can be built by adapting and expanding the already established provincial and regional markets. Initiated in 2017 to enable exchange and increased use of renewable power “otherwise to be curtailed”, the pilot interprovincial spot power market in the State Grid area can be extended to become a national spot market according to a so-called secondary model, where a national market exists in parallel with the existing local markets. This market would enable better sharing of resources while preserving local autonomy in market designs and dispatch decisions. This is well-suited for China as local markets have adopted different models and are at uneven levels of maturity. This secondary market structure can operate in parallel with the existing provincial markets as well as the planned southern regional market – which aims to expand the Guangdong provincial market to integrate all provinces under the China Southern Grid area. Several pathways can be taken to establish a national spot power market. Two models of secondary markets are considered to enable better sharing of resources across the country. In a surplus market (similar to the current interprovincial spot Building a Unified National Power Market System in China Executive summary PAGE | 9 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. market), only surpluses are exchanged between the local markets. A higher level of co-ordination can be achieved with “volume coupling” of local markets such as the model introduced by the China Energy Transformation Outlook (CETO). Both models can be intermediary steps before a higher integration in the future. Several pathways can be taken to implement a national spot power market IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: SGCC = State Grid Corporation of China. The recommended pathway is indicated by the plain arrows. More direct upgrades as represented by the dashed arrows are possible. A national surplus market is a no-regret move on the path to more integration in the future. The implementation challenges may be the decisive factor to decide the path forward. Implementing a national surplus market has the advantage of quickly capturing the benefits of regional co-ordination while enabling to move later to more integrated forms of markets since all developments made to establish a surplus market can be reused and upgraded. Regional trade co-ordination through a national market can deliver substantial efficiency benefits and increased resilience. Regional trade improves resources sharing across larger areas. This brings many benefits in terms of resilience and can contribute to reducing needed investments in generation assets for reserve. There are also operational efficiency gains. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) in 2035, reductions in operating costs range from 6-12% and decreases in CO 2 emissions range from 2-10% compared with a situation where regional co-ordination is not improved (assuming the market orientation of dispatch is kept at the current levels). Advancing economic dispatch in local markets delivers even higher benefits than regional co-ordination. Spot market development and financial MLT contracts have made dispatch more market-based, which already shows benefits. An advantage of secondary market models is the ability to deploy the national market with limited