【报告】净零电力——可再生电网长时储能（英）-长时储能委员会&麦肯锡.pdf

Net-zero power Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid Published in November 2021 by the LDES Council. Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from our website: www.ldescouncil.com. This report was authored by the LDES Council in collaboration with McKinsey and 2. It is not their intention that any such form of coordination will be adopted. Whilst the contents of the report and its abstract implications for the industry generally can be discussed once they have been prepared, individual strategies remain proprietary, confidential and the responsibility of each participant. Participants are reminded that, as part of the invariable practice of the LDES Council and the EU competition law obligations to which membership activities are subject, such strategic and confidential information must not be shared or coordinated – including as part of this report. Contents Acronyms i About the Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Council ii Preface iii Executive summary vi Data collection and benchmarking xi 1. Introduction 1 2. LDES technologies characterization and current status 7 3. Modeling the flexibility needs of future power systems 15 4. Cost analysis 25 5. LDES business cases 35 6. Road to competitiveness and key market enablers 41 Conclusion 46 Appendix A: Methodology 47 Appendix B: Examples of business cases 51 Acronyms BoP Balance of plant Capex Capital expenditure CCS Carbon capture and storage CO 2 Carbon dioxide CAES Compressed air energy storage CSP Concentrated solar power EV Electric vehicle Gt CO 2 eq Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent GW Gigawatt GWh Gigawatt-hour GHG Greenhouse gas IEA International Energy Agency IRR Internal rate of return IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change kW Kilowatt kWh Kilowatt-hour LCOE Levelized cost of electricity LCOS Levelized cost of storage Li-ion Lithium-ion LAES Liquid air energy storage LDES Long duration energy storage MEDC More economically developed countries MPM McKinsey Power Model MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt-hour NDC Nationally determined contributions NPV Net present value NMC Nickel, Manganese and Cobalt O balancing electricity supply and demand; a change in transmission f_low patterns; and a decrease in system stability. LDES can help address these issues by increasing the f_lexibility of the power system. LDES are a host of different technologies that store and release energy through mechanical, thermal, electrochemical, or chemical means. Alongside Li-ion battery technology and hydrogen, LDES technologies can play a critical and distinctive role in delivering f_lexibility on times ranging from hours to weeks. Many LDES technologies currently exist, but they are at different levels of maturity. Some have been deployed commercially, some are still at the pilot phase. Our projections show that LDES need to be scaled up dramatically over the next 20 years to build a cost-optimal net-zero energy system. For LDES to be cost optimal, costs must decrease by 60%. However, even greater cost reductions have already occurred in other clean technologies like solar and wind. Between 2022–40, USD 1.5 tr–3.0 tr of total investment in LDES will be required. The total investment over this period is comparable to what is invested in transmission and distribution networks every 2–4 years. This investment has the potential to create economic and environmental benefit. The business cases for LDES can often be positive if suff_icient mechanisms are in place to monetize the value. By 2040, LDES need to have scaled up to ~400x present day levels to 1.5–2.5 TW (85–140 TWh). 10% of all electricity generated would be stored in LDES at some point. Present-day LDES deployment is low, but momentum in LDES is growing exponentially. The value of LDES can be unlocked through regulation change: • Long-term system planning • Support for f_irst deployment and scaling up • Market creation 2030 0.1–0.4 TW 4–8 TWh 1.5–2.5 TW 85–140 TWh Today 2040 ~0 TW ~0 TWh Pre-2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total 980 130 260 360 910 2,640 v Net-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey they are widely deployable and scalable; and they have relatively low lead times compared to upgrading of transmission and distribution (T International Hydropower Association PSH capacity additions by year 1 GW 14Net-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & Company 3. Modeling the flexibility needs of future power systems Chapter summary LDES technologies need to be scaled dramatically over the next 20 years to enable a net-zero power system Modeling shows that in a net-zero scenario, the total addressable market (TAM) for LDES has the potential to reach between 1.5 and 2.5 TW scale by 2040. Energy shifting, capacity provision and optimization of T&D applications will account for the vast majority of deployments. This is true across markets. The estimated value of this market could reach over USD 1 trillion by 2040. LDES can create value in a range different on-grid and off-grid applications not accounted in the modeling and which could increase the cumulative value creation to around USD 1.3 trillion by 2040 LDES plays a significant role in all modeled scenarios but the precise uptake is sensitive to cost, the performance of alternative technologies and to the pace of decarbonization broadly. Under alternative assumptions, deployments could be up to 40 percent lower. 15 Net-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & Company