世界石油展望2045（2022年版）英文版-OPEC.pdf

World Oil Outlook 2045 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2022 OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organization, established in Baghdad, Iraq, on 10–14 September 1960. The Organization comprises 13 Members: Algeria, Angola, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. Digital access to the WOO: an interactive user experience 24/7 Download OPEC WOO App Access the interactive version OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities for the oil industry. It is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry. As part of OPEC’s ongoing efforts to improve user experience of the WOO and provide data transparency, two digital interfaces are available: the OPEC WOO App and the interactive version of the WOO. The OPEC WOO App provides increased access to the publication’s vital analysis and energy-related data. It is ideal for energy professionals, oil industry stakeholders, policymakers, market analysts, academics and the media. The App’s search engine enables users to easily find information, and its bookmarking function allows them to store and review their favourite articles. Its versatility also allows users to compare graphs and tables interactively, thereby maximizing information extraction and empowering users to undertake their own analysis. The interactive version of the WOO also provides the possibility to download specific data and information, thereby enhancing user experience. Av a ila b le f or Andr oid and iO S © OPEC Secretariat, October 2022 Helferstorferstrasse 17 A-1010 Vienna, Austria www.opec.org ISBN 978-3-9504890-4-0 The data, analysis and any other information (the “information”) contained in the World Oil Outlook (the “WOO”) is for informational purposes only and is neither intended as a substitute for advice from business, finance, investment consultant or other professional; nor is it meant to be a benchmark or input data to a benchmark of any kind. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the World Oil Outlook, the OPEC Secretariat makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, relevance or comprehensiveness, and assumes no liability or responsibility for any inaccuracy, error or omission, or for any loss or damage arising in connection with or attributable to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on the information in the World Oil Outlook. The views expressed in the World Oil Outlook are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of its governing bodies or Member Countries. The designation of geographical entities in the World Oil Outlook, and the use and presentation of data and other materials, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of OPEC and/or its Member Countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the exploration, exploitation, refining, marketing and utilization of its petroleum or other energy resources. Full reproduction, copying or transmission of the World Oil Outlook is not permitted in any form or by any means by third parties without the OPEC Secretariat’s written permission, however, the information contained therein may be used and/or reproduced for educational and other non-commercial purposes without the OPEC Secretariat’s prior written permission, provided that it is fully acknowledged as the copyright holder. The World Oil Outlook may contain references to material(s) from third parties, whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorization from the copyright owner(s). The OPEC Secretariat or its governing bodies shall not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of any third party material(s). All rights of the World Oil Outlook shall be reserved to the OPEC Secretariat, as applicable, including every exclusive economic right, in full or per excerpts, with special reference but without limitation, to the right to publish it by press and/or by any communications medium whatsoever; translate, include in a data base, make changes, transform and process for any kind of use, including radio, television or cinema adaptations, as well as a sound-video recording, audio- visual screenplays and electronic processing of any kind and nature whatsoever. Download: All the data presented in this Outlook is available at www.opec.org. Acknowledgements Secretary General, Chairman of the Editorial Board Haitham Al Ghais Director, Research Division, Editor-in-Chief Ayed S. Al-Qahtani Head, Energy Studies Department, Editor Abderrezak Benyoucef Main contributors Chapter 1: Key assumptions Mohammad AlKazimi, Joerg Spitzy, Jan Ban, Eleni Kaditi, Hans-Peter Messmer, Masudbek Narzibekov, Boris Kudashev, Daniel McKirdy Chapter 2: Energy demand Haris Aliefendic, Jan Ban, Reem AlNaeimi, Mohammed Attaba Chapter 3: Oil demand Jan Ban, Hans-Peter Messmer, Mohammed Attaba, Christian Diendorfer Chapter 4: Liquids supply Julius Walker, Mohammad AlKazimi Chapter 5: Refining outlook Haris Aliefendic, Mohammed Attaba Chapter 6: Oil movements Haris Aliefendic Chapter 7: Energy policy, climate change and sustainable development Julius Walker, Eleni Kaditi, Daniel McKirdy, Boris Kudashev, Irene Etiobhio, Mohammed Attaba, Christian Diendorfer Chapter 8: Energy scenarios Jan Ban, Julius Walker, Eleni Kaditi Other contributors Behrooz Baikalizadeh, Mohammad Zarie Zare, Mhammed Mouraia, Mohamed Sarrab, Tona Ndamba, Yacine Sariahmed, Asmaa Yaseen, Ali Dehghan, Nadir Guerer, Aziz Yahyai, Pantelis Christodoulides, Douglas Linton, Hannes Eichner, Roland Kammerer, Viveca Hameder, Klaus Stoeger, Mohammad Sattar, Zairul Arifin, Mihni Mihnev, Justinas Pelenis, Mansoureh Ghodsi Editorial Team James Griffin Design assuming no closures. ** Required: based on projected demand increases assuming no change in refined products trade pattern. Source: OPEC. Figure 5.7 mboe/d Width: 135.6 mm Height: 65 mm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 mb/d Potential refining capacity based on project list Required refining capacity Source: OPEC. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 World Oil Outlook 2022 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ES Significant long-term primary and secondary refining capacity requirements In the long-term, global refining additions are projected at 15.5 mb/d. Expected additions are front-loaded, with a significant slowdown in the rate of additions towards the end of the assessment period, in line with oil demand deceleration. Almost 90% of additions are located in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. Long-term sec- ondary capacity additions are estimated at around 15.8 mb/d for desulphurization capacities, 8 mb/d for conversion capacities and 5.7 mb/d for octane units. High degree of uncertainty related to European imports and Russian exports of crude and condensate Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, several regions including the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), the US and Canada have imposed a ban on oil and product imports from Russia. This outlook assumes that Europe will continue to import some Russian crude in the medium- to long-term. However, this outlook recognizes the potential lasting consequences of the oil embargo, mean- ing that flows from Russia to the EU are likely to be significantly lower compared to 2021. Medium-term global crude and condensate trade to rise significantly, followed by a gradual increase thereafter Total crude and condensate trade is expected to increase from 33.9 mb/d in 2021 to almost 40.5 mb/d by 2045. The Middle East remains by far the most important crude and condensate exporter throughout the period. In line with rising demand for OPEC liquids, it is projected to increase its exports from 15.7 mb/d in 2021 to 22.7 mb/d in 2045, or more than 56% of total trade movements. Latin American exports are set to grow strongly, reaching 5.7 mb/d in 2045, up from 3.4 mb/d in 2021. In line with supply trends, US & Canada exports are set to peak in 2025 at 4.7 mb/d, followed by a gradual decline to 2.3 mb/d in 2045. Global crude and condensate exports by origin*, 2021–2045 Figure 6.4 mboe/d Asia-PacificMiddle EastRussia & CaspianEuropeAfricaLatin AmericaUS & Canada 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 mb/d * Only trade between major regions is considered, intratrade is excluded. Source: OPEC. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14 World Oil Outlook 2022 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Crude and condensate flows to Asia-Pacific increase strongly, based on robust demand growth and declining local supply Total imports increase from 22.5 mb/d in 2021 to above 30 mb/d in 2045. The Middle East remains the most significant supplier and increases its share in total Asia-Pacific imports from around 60% in 2021 to 65% in 2045. Other regions are also projected to increase shipments to Asia-Pacific in the medium- and/or long-term, including Latin America, Russia & Caspian and the US & Canada. Crude and condensate imports to Asia-Pacific by origin, 2021–2045 Figure 6.13 mboe/d Middle East Russia & Caspian US & CanadaEurope Africa Latin America 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 mb/d Scenarios assess alternative energy pathways The global economy and energy system are at a critical juncture, characterized by great uncertainty. Nations and Parties to the UNFCCC are currently called on to collectively achieve ambitious emission reductions by accelerating action on an unprecedented scale in all key sectors, including energy, transport, buildings, and industry. At the same time, there are pressing needs to alleviate energy poverty and improve energy access and living conditions for people in many developing countries. To model these chal- lenges, alternative scenarios were developed. These scenarios indicate that alternatives to the mainstream mitigation pathways focusing on renewables exist. Crucially, different pathways have varying socio-economic implications for different economies, with some routes likely unfairly impacting energy-exporting developing countries. Partnerships and cooperation are needed to invest in technology and innovation that could enable an inclusive, fair and just transition The critical role of oil and gas in meeting future energy demand and achieving energy poverty eradication should be taken into consideration when developing investment plans and energy portfolios that lead to a low-emissions future. Any adverse impacts for the economies and societies of energy-exporting developing countries should be addressed in the context of equity and sustainable development. In this respect, amid the current disruptions related to the pandemic and geopolitics, the world is losing momentum towards the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal Source: OPEC.