可再生能源2022—分析和预测至2027（英）-IEA.pdf

Renewables 2022 Analysis and forecast to 2027The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYRenewables 2022 Abstract Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 3 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Abstract Renewables 2022 is the IEA’s primary analysis on the sector, based on current policies and market developments. It forecasts the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2027 while also exploring key challenges to the industry and identifying barriers to faster growth. The current global energy crisis brings both new opportunities and new challenges for renewable energy. Renewables 2022 provides analysis on the new policies introduced in response to the energy crisis. This year’s report frames current policy and market dynamics while placing the recent rise in energy prices and energy security challenges in context. In addition to its detailed market analysis and forecasts, Renewables 2022 also examines key developments and trends for the sector, including the more ambitious renewable energy targets recently proposed by the European Union; the issue of windfall profits; the diversification of solar PV manufacturing; renewable capacity for hydrogen production; and a possible feedstock crunch in the biofuels industry and viable ways to avoid it. Renewables 2022 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 4 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. It was designed and directed by Heymi Bahar, Senior Analyst. The report benefited from analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues. The lead authors of the report were, Yasmina Abdelilah, Heymi Bahar, Trevor Criswell, Piotr Bojek, François Briens, Jeremy Moorhouse and Laura Mari Martinez, who was also responsible for data management. The report also benefited from analysis and drafting from Kazuhiro Kurumi and Kartik Veerakumar. Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division, provided strategic guidance and input to this work. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA, in particular, Keisuke Sadamori and Laura Cozzi. Other IEA colleagues who have made important contributions to this work include: Abdullah Al-Abri, Ana Alcande Bascones, Carlos Alvarez Fernandez, Elisa Asmelash, Praveen Bains, Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez, Stéphanie Bouckaert, Davide d’Ambrosio, Syrine El Abed, Astha Gupta, Ilkka Hannula, Ciarán Healy, Pablo Hevia-Koch, Joerg Husar, Kevin Lane, Stefan Lorenczik, Rita Madeira, Yannick Monschauer, Brian Motherway, Francesco Pavan, Uwe Remme, Luis Fernando Rosa, Brent Wanner. Timely data from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report, with particular assistance provided by Pedro Carvalho, Luca Lorenzoni, Taylor Morrison, Nick Johnstone, Julian Prime and Roberta Quadrelli. This work benefited from extensive review and comments from the IEA Standing Group on Long-Term Co-operation, IEA Renewable Energy Working Party, members of the Renewable Industry Advisory Board (RIAB) and experts from IEA partner countries and other international institutions. The work also benefited from feedback by the IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology, IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (IEA TCPs). Many experts from outside of the IEA provided valuable input, commented and reviewed this report. They include: Renewables 2022 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 5 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Countries Argentina (Ministry of Energy), Brazil (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética), Canada (Natural Resources Canada), China (Energy Research Institute – ERI), Denmark (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities), European Union (European Commission – DG Energy), Finland ( Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment), Japan (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry - METI), Spain (Institute for Energy Diversification and Energy Saving - IDAE). Technology Collaboration Programme (TCPs) Bioenergy TCP, Heat Pump Centre (HPC) TCP, Hydropower TCP, Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) TCP, Solar Heating and Cooling TCP, SolarPaces TCP, Wind Energy TCP. Other Organisations Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Enel, Energy Information Administration (EIA), European Commission, European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), European Renewable Ethanol Association (EPURE), European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF), Global Wind Energy Association (GWEC), Iberdrola, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Natural Resources Canada, Neste, Ørsted, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Solar Energy Corporation of India Ltd. (SECI), Solar Power Europe, Solrico, SPV Market Research, The Energy and Resources Insitute (TERI), US Grains Council, Vestas, WindEurope, World Bank, World Bioenergy Association. The authors would also like to thank Kristine Douaud for skilfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Jad Mouawad, Barbara Moure, Jethro Mullen, Julie Puech, Robert Stone and Therese Walsh for their assistance. In addition, Ivo Letra from the Office of Management and Administration supported data management. Questions or comments? Please write to us at IEA-REMR@iea.org Renewables 2022 Table of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 6 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Table of contents Renewables 2022 1 Analysis and forecasts to 2027 . 1 Abstract . 3 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits . 4 Table of contents . 6 Executive summary . 10 Chapter 1. Renewable electricity 17 Forecast summary . 17 China 28 United States 30 Europe 34 Asia Pacific . 56 Latin America . 70 Middle East and North Africa . 76 Sub-Saharan Africa 81 Chapter 2. Transport Biofuels . 84 Forecast summary . 84 Demand, supply and trade . 92 Chapter 3. Renewable heat 108 Recent trends and policy update . 108 Outlook to 2027 110 Chapter 4. Trends to watch. 117 Question 1: Is the European Union on track to meet its REPowerEU goals? . 117 Question 2: Is renewable energy capacity in the European Union making windfall profits from high wholesale prices? . 129 Question 3: Will new PV manufacturing policies in the United States, India and the European Union create global PV supply diversification? 135 Question 4: Is the biofuel industry approaching a feedstock crunch? . 141 Question 5: How much will renewable hydrogen production drive demand for new renewable energy capacity by 2027? 146 Question 6: Is the energy crisis really making the business case for heat pumps? 151 General annex . 156 Abbreviations and acronyms 156 Units of measure 157 Renewables 2022 Table of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 7 I EA. CC BY 4.0. List of Figures Upward revisions to renewable capacity expansion forecasts from Renewables 2021 to Renewables 2022 17 Renewable capacity growth in the main and accelerated cases, 2010-2027 18 Quarterly average utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind auction contract and wholesale power prices in selected European countries, 2018-2022 19 Renewable capacity growth outside of China, main and accelerated cases, 2010- 2027 20 Renewable annual net capacity additions by technology, main and accelerated cases, 2015-2027 . 21 Renewable capacity auctioned by region, Q1 2018 to Q3 2022 23 Auction contract prices for utility-scale solar PV (left) and onshore wind (right) by region 24 Cumulative power capacity by technology, 2010-2027 26 Global electricity generation by technology, 2015, 2021 and 2027 . 26 Hydropower electricity generation absolute year-on-year change, 2018-2022 . 27 China renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and shares of renewables in electricity generation, 2015-2027 (right) . 28 United States annual renewable capacity additions by technology, 2020-2027 (left) and total renewables capacity growth, 2010-2027 (right) 31 United States solar PV capacity additions, 2019-2027 (left) and median time between solar PV interconnection request and plant commissioning for selected system operators, 2013-2021 (right) 32 United States onshore wind capacity additions and maximum PTC credit rate, 2020- 2027 (left) and offshore wind project status (right) . 33 Europe renewable electricity capacity additions, 2022-2027 (left) and wholesale electricity prices for selected markets (right) 35 Germany renewable capacity additions, 2022-2027 (left) and 2030 targets for cumulative installed capacity in EEG2021 and EEG2023 vs installed capacity today (2021) . 39 Historical feed-in premiums (2014-2021) and new rates under the EEG2023 with full feed-in premium (2023-2024) . 40 France capacity additions by technology, 2010-2027 (left) and project pipeline vs annual commissioning, 2016-2021 (right) 44 Spain renewable capacity additions by technology, 2010-2027 (left) and annual auctions vs deployment targets, 2022-2026 (right) 45 The Netherlands renewable capacity additions, 2020-2027 (left) and capacity to solar PV and other technologies in SDE+ and SDE++ (right) 47 Belgium renewable capacity additions by technology, 2010-2027 (left) and Denmark renewable capacity additions by technology, 2010-2027 (right) 50 Italy renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and results of FER renewable energy auctions (right) 51 United Kingdom renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and CfD auction results, capacity limits and projects pipeline in Renewable Energy Planning Database (right) 53 Poland renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and quarterly distributed PV capacity additions, 2019-2022 (right) . 55 Asia Pacific renewable capacity additions by technology, 2010-2027 (left) and annual capacity additions by country, 2019-2027 (right) . 57 India renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and renewable capacity awarded in auctions, 2017-2022 (right) 58 India awarded and commissioned renewable capacity, 2017-2022 (left) and DISCOM energy market shares by integrated rating, 2015-2021 (right) . 60 Renewables 2022 Table of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 8 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Japan renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and FIT-approved capacity and prices for solar PV and onshore wind, 2012-2021 (right) 63 Korea renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and fixed-price solar PV capacity and average revenue per MWh by technology, 2017-2022 (right) 64 Australia renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and quarterly distributed PV capacity additions, 2017-2022 (right) . 66 ASEAN renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and annual capacity additions by country, 2019-2027 (right) 68 Brazil renewable capacity additions, 2020-2027 (left) and utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind capacity by market registration (right) . 71 Chile renewable capacity additions, 2020-2027 (left) and capacity and prices awarded in Chilean energy auctions (right) 72 Colombia renewable capacity additions, 2020-2027 (left) and installed renewable capacity in REMR2022 forecast vs Colombia’s National Energy Plan (right) 73 Mexico renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and Argentina renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (right) . 75 Middle East and North Africa renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and renewable additions by technology and country, 2022-2027 (right) 76 Middle East and North Africa renewable capacity additions dedicated to hydrogen production, 2010-2027 (left) and project status for electrolysers using dedicated renewables with commissioning planned by 2027 (right) 80 Sub-Saharan Africa renewable capacity additions, 2010-2027 (left) and renewable additions by technology and country, 2016-2027 (right) 82 Biofuel demand growth by fuel and region, 2021-2022 . 84 Ethanol and gasoline prices (left), and biodiesel and diesel prices (right), 2019-2022 85 Global biofuel demand (left) and growth for advanced and emerging economies (right), main case, 2021-2027 86 Forecast growth by country (left) and biofuel share of transport demand (right), main case, 2021-2027 . 87 Global biojet fuel demand and supply growth, 2022-2027 . 89 Demand growth by country (left) and total demand (right), accelerated case, 2021- 2027 91 United States five-year biofuel growth, main and accelerated cases, 2016-2027 . 93 Brazil five-year biofuel growth, main and accelerated cases, 2016-2027 96 Europe five-year biofuel growth, main and accelerated cases, 2016-2027 . 98 Indonesia five-year biofuel growth, main and accelerated cases, 2016-2027 . 101 India five-year biofuel growth, main and accelerated cases, 2016-2027 . 102 Other markets five-year biofuel growth, main and accelerated cases, 2016-2027 104 Global increase in renewable energy consumption and share of total heat demand in buildings and industry, 2010-2027 . 110 Increase in renewable heat consumption in industry and share of renewables in industrial heat demand, selected regions, 2016-2027 . 111 Contribution of different factors to renewable electricity consumption growth in industry and buildings, selected regions, 2022-2027 . 113 Buildings sector increase in renewable heat consumption and share of renewables in heat demand, selected regions, 2016-2027 . 114 Renewable electricity shares in main case (left), and average annual additions for solar PV (middle) and wind (right) in the main and accelerated cases (2022-2027) 119 European Union renewable energy share in transport, main case (left) and accelerated case (right), 2020-2030 123 Share of renewables in heating and cooling, historical average annual progress and proposed targets for EU member states 127 Renewables 2022 Table of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2027 PAGE | 9 I EA. CC BY 4.0. European Union shares of installed renewable capacity by exposure to w