工业脱碳路线图（英）-美国能源部.pdf

Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap DOE/EE-2635 September 2022 United States Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Department of Energy | September 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap | Page iii U.S. Department of Energy’s Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap Table of Contents List of Figures . vii List of Tables ix Acronyms and Key Terms .ix Acknowledgements .xi Executive Summary xv Key Recommendations xxiv Decarbonization Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 for the Five Energy-Intensive Industrial Subsectors Studied . xxv Considerations for Reaching Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 for the Entire Industrial Sector . xxvi Considerations for Reaching Economy-Wide Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 xxviii 1 Introduction . 1 The Imperative to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1 The Industrial Decarbonization Challenge 2 1.1 The Roadmap Process 8 1.1.1 Literature Review . 8 1.1.2 Stakeholder Meetings 8 1.2 The Pillars of Decarbonization: Crosscutting Carbon-Reducing Technologies, Processes, and Practices 10 1.2.1 Energy Efficiency 11 1.2.1.1 Combined Heat and Power (CHP) 14 1.2.2 Industrial Electrification and Low-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, and Energy Sources . 15 1.2.2.1 Electrification of Process Heat . 15 Department of Energy | September 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap | Page iv 1.2.2.2 Hydrogen as a Low-Carbon Fuel, Feedstock, and Energy Source . 18 1.2.2.2.1 RD&D Needs and Opportunities 19 1.2.3 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage 21 1.3 Methodology for Development of Scenarios for GHG Emissions Reductions 25 1.3.1 Modeling Assumptions 25 1.3.2 Modeling and Scenario Limitations and Next Steps 26 1.4 Getting to Net-Zero . 28 1.5 Application of the Decarbonization Pillars Across Subsectors. 30 2 Subsector-Specific GHG Emissions Reducing Technologies, Processes, and Practices 34 2.1 Iron and Steel Manufacturing 35 2.1.1 Status of the U.S. Iron and Steel Industry 35 2.1.1.1 Energy Use and GHG Emissions for the Iron and Steel Industry 37 2.1.2 Decarbonization Pathways for the Iron and Steel Industry . 40 2.1.3 RD&D Needs and Opportunities for the Iron and Steel Industry . 43 2.1.3.1 Energy Efficiency for the Iron and Steel Industry . 45 2.1.3.2 Electrification and Low-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, and Energy Sources for the Iron and Steel Industry 46 2.1.3.2.1 Process Heat Electrification . 46 2.1.3.2.2 Hydrogen DRI-EAF . 47 2.1.3.2.3 Electrolysis of Iron Ore 47 2.1.3.3 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage for the Iron and Steel Industry . 48 2.1.3.3.1 Carbon Capture and Storage . 48 2.1.3.3.2 Carbon Utilization 50 2.1.4 Proposed RD&D Action Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry . 50 2.1.4.1 Information Synthesis and Analysis for the Iron and Steel Industry 53 2.1.4.2 Laboratory Testing for the Iron and Steel Industry 54 2.1.4.3 Pilot and Demonstration Projects for the Iron and Steel Industry . 54 2.2 Chemical Manufacturing 55 2.2.1 Status of the U.S. Chemical Industry . 56 2.2.1.1 U.S. Chemical Production . 56 2.2.1.2 Energy Use and GHG Emissions for the Chemical Industry 57 2.2.2 Barriers and Opportunities for the Chemical Industry 59 2.2.3 Decarbonization Pathways for the Chemical Industry . 61 2.2.4 RD&D Needs and Opportunities for the Chemical Industry 70 2.2.4.1 Cross Process Opportunities and RD&D Needs for the Chemical Industry 72 2.2.4.1.1 Process Heat 72 2.2.4.1.2 Separations and Other Unit Operations 73 2.2.4.1.3 Hydrogen in the Chemicals Industry 74 2.2.4.1.4 Biomass and Low-Carbon Emission Waste Streams as Fuels and Feedstocks for Clean Chemical Production 75 2.2.4.2 Cross Process RD&D Needs and Opportunities for the Chemical Industry 77 2.2.4.3 Chemical Industry Subsector-Specific RD&D Needs and Opportunities 78 2.2.4.4 Timeline and Sequencing of RD&D Investments for the Chemical Industry 81 2.2.5 Proposed RD&D Action Plan for the Chemical Industry 83 2.3 Food and Beverage Manufacturing 86 2.3.1 Status of the U.S. Food and Beverage Manufacturing Industry 87 2.3.1.1 U.S. Food and Beverage Production . 87 2.3.1.2 Energy Use and CO 2 Emissions for Food and Beverage Manufacturing . 88 Department of Energy | September 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap | Page v 2.3.2 Decarbonization Pathways for Food and Beverage Manufacturing 89 2.3.3 RD&D Needs and Opportunities for Food and Beverage Manufacturing 91 2.3.3.1 Energy Efficiency for Food and Beverage Manufacturing 94 2.3.3.1.1 Efficient Oven Burners . 95 2.3.3.1.2 Steam Generation Efficiency . 95 2.3.3.1.3 Food and Beverage Waste Reduction . 95 2.3.3.1.4 Other Technologies . 96 2.3.3.2 Electrification and Process Electrification for Food and Beverage Manufacturing 96 2.3.3.3 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage for Food and Beverage Manufacturing 97 2.3.4 Proposed RD&D Action Plan for Food and Beverage Manufacturing 97 2.4 Petroleum Refining 102 2.4.1 Status of U.S. Petroleum Refining 106 2.4.1.1 U.S. Refinery Production 106 2.4.1.2 Energy Use and CO 2 Emissions for Petroleum Refining . 107 2.4.2 Decarbonization Pathways for Petroleum Refining . 111 2.4.3 Barriers and Opportunities for Petroleum Refining . 116 2.4.4 RD&D Needs and Opportunities for Petroleum Refining 118 2.4.4.1 Crosscutting Opportunities and RD&D Needs for Petroleum Refining 118 2.4.4.2 Petroleum Refining Subsector-Specific RD&D Needs and Opportunities 119 2.4.4.2.1 Efficient Use of Low-Carbon Energy 120 2.4.4.2.2 Electrification and Increased Use of Low-Carbon Electricity . 122 2.4.4.2.3 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage 123 2.4.4.3 Technology Maturity and RD&D Needs for Petroleum Refining 124 2.4.4.4 Timeline and Sequencing of RD&D Investments for Petroleum Refining 125 2.4.5 Proposed RD&D Action Plan for Petroleum Refining 128 2.5 Cement Manufacturing 131 2.5.1 Status of the U.S. Cement Industry 131 2.5.2 Decarbonization Pathways for the Cement Industry . 133 2.5.3 RD&D Needs and Opportunities for the Cement Industry 136 2.5.3.1 Energy Efficiency for the Cement Industry . 139 2.5.3.1.1 Innovative Chemistry . 140 2.5.3.2 Electrification and Low-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, and Energy Sources for the Cement Industry 143 2.5.3.2.1 Natural Gas 143 2.5.3.2.2 Biomass and Alternative Fuels. 143 2.5.3.2.3 Process Electrification . 145 2.5.3.2.4 Hydrogen in Cement Production . 146 2.5.3.3 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage for the Cement Industry . 147 2.5.4 Proposed RD&D Action Plan for the Cement Industry 151 2.5.4.1 Information Synthesis and Analysis . 153 2.5.4.2 Laboratory Testing . 154 2.5.4.3 Pilot and Demonstration Projects 154 3 Crosscutting Barriers and Opportunities 155 3.1 Economies of Scale 158 3.2 Digital Manufacturing 159 4 Further Strategic Analysis Needs 161 4.1 The Changing Energy Landscape 161 4.2 Bioenergy, Biofuels, and Bio-feedstocks 162 Department of Energy | September 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap | Page vi 4.3 Other Low-Carbon Energy Sources . 163 4.4 Additional Industrial Subsectors 163 4.5 Competitiveness 164 4.6 Material Efficiency . 165 4.7 Addressing Residual GHG and Other Emissions 166 4.8 Policy Implications and Impacts . 167 5 Department of Energy Approaches to Catalyze Industrial Decarbonization 168 5.1 DOE Office Activities in Industrial Decarbonization 168 5.2 Advancing Enabling Technologies and Practices through RD&D . 170 5.3 DOE Interoffice Collaboration 170 5.3.1 Energy Efficiency 173 5.3.2 Industrial Electrification . 174 5.3.3 Low-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, and Energy Sources . 175 5.3.4 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage 177 5.3.5 Crosscutting RD&D Opportunities . 178 5.3.5.1 Computational Tools and Artificial Intelligence: 178 5.3.5.2 Education and Workforce Development 178 5.3.5.3 Coordination of Knowledge Infrastructure 179 5.3.5.4 Technology Demonstration, Commercialization, and Adoption through Industry Partnerships 179 6 Summary and Conclusions . 181 7 Appendices: Scenario Methodology and Assumptions 186 Appendix 1.1. Iron and Steel Industry Analysis: Methodology and Assumptions 187 Appendix 1.2. Chemical Industry Analysis: Methodology and Assumptions 193 Appendix 1.3. Food and Beverage Industry Analysis: Methodology and Assumptions 199 Appendix 1.4. Petroleum Refining Industry Analysis: Methodology and Assumptions 202 Appendix 1.5. Cement Industry Analysis: Methodology and Assumptions 206 8 Glossary . 211 Iron and Steel Manufacturing 212 Chemical Manufacturing 212 Food and Beverage Manufacturing 213 Petroleum Refining 213 Cement Manufacturing 214 Department of Energy | September 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap | Page vii List of Figures Figure 1. Energy-related CO 2 emissions breakdown by industrial subsector in 2020, million MT CO 2 . 3 Figure 2. U.S. primary energy consumption by end use sector (left pie chart) and a breakout by industrial subsector (right stacked chart) in 2020. Offsite electricity losses (for the power generation sector) are allocated to end use industries. 5 Figure 3. U.S. primary energy-related CO 2 emissions by end use sector (left pie chart) and a breakout by industrial subsector (right stacked chart) in 2020. 6 Figure 4. Development process for the industrial decarbonization roadmap. Source: This work. . 8 Figure 5. Breakdown of energy use onsite at U.S. manufacturing facilities in 2018 by end use. 12 Figure 6. Distribution of process heat temperature ranges by industrial subsector in 2014. . 16 Figure 7. Distribution of process heat use in 2014 for key industrial subsectors by temperature range. 17 Figure 8. Example of optimized transport network for economy-wide carbon capture and storage. 23 Figure 9. The path to net-zero industrial CO 2 emissions in the United States (million mt/year) for five carbon- intensive industrial subsectors, 2015–2050. . 31 Figure 10. Landscape of major RD&D investment opportunities for industrial decarbonization across all subsectors by decade and decarbonization pillar 33 Figure 11. U.S. Crude steel production (in thousand MT) by production route, 2000–2018 36 Figure 12. Distribution of energy end uses (left) and share of different energy types used (right) in the U.S. steel industry in 2018. 38 Figure 13. Total CO 2 emissions intensity of the steel industry in 16 countries/regions in 2019. 39 Figure 14. CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) forecast for the U.S. steel industry by scenario, 2015–2050. 41 Figure 15. Impact of the decarbonization pillars on CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) for the U.S. iron & steel industry, 2015–2050. . 42 Figure 16. Technical maturity levels of select decarbonization technologies discussed during roadmap virtual meetings for the U.S. steel manufacturing industry. . 44 Figure 17. Schematic of molten oxide electrolysis 48 Figure 18. Landscape of RD&D advancement opportunities by decade and decarbonization pillar for the U.S. steel industry 52 Figure 19. Production volumes for several high-volume U.S. chemicals 2009-2019 (thousand MT/year). 57 Figure 20. Energy sources for the U.S. chemical manufacturing subsector in 2018. 58 Figure 21. energy use for heat and power in the U.S. chemical manufacturing subsector in 2018. . 58 Figure 22. Breakdown of top U.S. chemical manufacturing subsector direct CO 2 emissions (in million MT) in 2018 by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) categories. . 59 Figure 23. Forecasted CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) for U.S. production of ammonia, methanol, ethylene, and BTX by decarbonization scenario, 2015–2050. 62 Figure 24. Impact of the decarbonization pillars on CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) for U.S. production of ammonia, methanol, ethylene, and BTX, 2015–2050. 63 Figure 25. Emissions factors for scenarios where the grid is decarbonized compared to fuel source emissions factors for coal and natural gas (horizontal lines). 65 Figure 26. CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) forecast for the U.S. ammonia industry by scenario when electrolysis- hydrogen is adopted modestly in 2030–2050. 67 Figure 27. CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) forecast for the U.S. ammonia industry by scenario when adoption of electrolysis-hydrogen is delayed until the electric grid is decarbonized. 67 Figure 28. Technical maturity levels of select decarbonization technologies discussed during the roadmap virtual meetings for the U.S. chemical manufacturing industry. 71 Figure 29. Distribution of process heat use across top product categories in the U.S. chemical industry by temperature range ( o C). 73 Department of Energy | September 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap | Page viii Figure 30. Landscape of RD&D advancement opportunities by decade and decarbonization pillar for the U.S. chemical manufacturing subsector noted by attendees at the Roadmap virtual sessions. 82 Figure 31. Food and beverage manufacturing subsectors’ value added to industry in 2019. . 88 Figure 32. Fuel mix (right) in U.S. food and beverage manufacturing industry in 2018 89 Figure 33. CO 2 emissions forecast for selected subsectors of the U.S. food and beverage manufacturing by scenario, 2015–2050. 90 Figure 34. Impact of the decarbonization pillars on CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) for selected subsectors of U.S. food and beverage manufacturing, 2015–2050. . 91 Figure 35. Technical maturity levels of the decarbonization technologies for the food and beverage manufacturing industry. . 93 Figure 36. Landscape of RD&D advancement opportunities by decade and decarbonization pillar for the U.S. food and beverage manufacturing subsector noted by attendees at the roadmap virtual sessions. . 100 Figure 37. U.S. regional petroleum refinery capacity and complexity 107 Figure 38. Typical product yield and energy intensity for EU refineries of different complexity 108 Figure 39. Fuel energy consumption at U.S. petroleum refineries in 2018, broken out by fuel and end use . 109 Figure 40. U.S. petroleum refining energy consumption (left) and CO 2 emissions (right) by process in 2019 . 110 Figure 41. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020 Reference Case projection of U.S. petroleum refining energy consumption (in trillion Btu) and CO 2 emissions (in million MT) to 2050. 111 Figure 42. CO 2 emissions forecast the U.S. petroleum refining subsector by scenario, 2015–2050. 113 Figure 43. Impact of the decarbonization pillars on CO 2 emissions (million MT/year) for the U.S. petroleum refining subsector, 2015–2050. 115 Figure 44. Technical maturity levels of decarbonization technologies for the petroleum refining subsector 126 Figure 45. Sequence of RD&D investments opportunities by decade for the petroleum refining subsector . 127 Figure 46. Landscape of RD&D advancement opportunities by decade and decarbonization pillar for the U.S. petroleum refining subsector noted by attendees at the roadmap virtual sessions. . 128 Figure 47. Energy mix in the U.S. cement industry in 2015. 132 Figure 48. Sources of CO 2 emissions in the U.S. cement industry in 2015. . 133 Figure 49. CO 2 emissions forecast for the U.S. cement industry by scenario, 2015–2050. . 134 Figure 50. Impact of the decarbonization pillars on CO 2 emissions (million MT/ye