IEA PVPS-Izumi Kaizuka

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Global PV Market and Industry Status From IEAPVPS Report Izumi KAIZUKA, kaizuka@rts-pv.com Deputy OA, IEA PVPS Task1 Principal Analyst, RTS Corporation, Tokyo IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Contents • About IEA PVPS • Market trends from SnapShot Report • Industry trends • Summary IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Who we are • The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) is one of the collaborative R&D Agreements established within the IEA and, since its establishment in 1993, the PVPS participants have been conducting a variety of joint projects in the application of photovoltaic conversion of solar energy into electricity. • 32 Members （ 27 countries, EC, SolarPower Europe, SEIA, SEPA and Cupper Alliance) • Mission Statement: “To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems“ Members covers more than 90% of global Solar market IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Current joint projects Task 1: Strategic PV Analysis & Outreach Task 9: Deploying PV Services for Regional Development → Task 18 Task 12: PV Sustainability Task 13: Performance, Operation and Reliability of Photovoltaic Systems Task 14: High Penetration of PV Systems in Electricity Grids Task 15: Enabling Framework for the Development of BIPV Task 16:Solar Resource for High Penetration and Large Scale Applications Task 17: PV and Transport (New!) 4 / 11 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME http://www.iea-pvps.org/ Visit IEA PVPS website for reports IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Contents • About IEA PVPS • Market trends from SnapShot Report • Industry trends • Summary IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 7 Looking back 10 years ago IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Global cumulativ capacity reached 0.5TW IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 9 Sources: IEA-PVPS – Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2019 Evolution of PV capacity installed annually worldwide Trends of annual capacity 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GWp IEA PVPS Countries Non IEA PVPS Countries European Union USA Japan China PV Market & Industry Status and Vision on PV Business Models IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Installed capacity by country 1 C h i n a 4 5 , 0 GW 1 C h i n a 1 7 6 , 1 GW 2 I n d i a 1 0 , 8 GW 2 U S A 6 2 , 2 GW 3 U S A 1 0 , 6 GW 3 J a p a n 5 6 , 0 GW 4 J a p a n 6 , 5 GW 4 G er m a n y 4 5 , 4 GW 5 A u s tr a l i a 3 , 8 GW 5 I n d i a 3 2 , 9 GW 6 G er m a n y 3 , 0 GW 6 I ta l y 2 0 , 1 GW 7 M ex i c o 2 , 7 GW 7 UK 1 3 , 0 GW 8 K o r ea 2 , 0 GW 8 A u s tr a l i a 1 1 , 3 GW 9 T u r k ey 1 , 6 GW 9 F r a n c e 9 , 0 GW 10 N eth er l a n d s 1 , 3 GW 10 K o r ea 7 , 9 GW T A B L E 1 : T OP 1 0 C OU N T R I E S F OR I N S T A L L A T I ON S A N D T OT A L I N S T A L L E D C A P A C I T Y I N 2 0 1 8 F OR A N N U A L I N S T A L L E D C A P A C I T Y F OR C U M U L A T I V E C A P A C I T Y IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMMESome highlights #17 in PV penetration (3.3%) IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Segmentation of grid connected solar PV installations Source: IEA PVPS 2018? A large-part of the global growth was in the utility-scale segment, especially in emerging markets Market segmentation has been dominated by utility-scale PV plants in the last 6 years, with a change coming from China in 2017. Innovative applications still marginal: Floating 1 GW BIPV 1 GW AgriPV is new and growing slow VIPV is still in its infancy Different business models for different applications Distributed (decentralized) PV has become minor compared to centralized PV systems PV Market & Industry Status and Vision on PV Business Models IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMMEContents • About IEA PVPS • Market trends from SnapShot Report • Industry trends • Summary IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME PV module production and capacity Global production： ~ 63 GW in 2015 14 (RTS estimate) PV module production by country 15 Top10 Cell Players and PV module players 16 PV Cell top 10 companies have ~45% of share PV module top 10 companies have ~52% of share Production capacity of major players as of May 2019 17 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Trends in the upstream sector ・ Higher efficiency & output ✓ combination of several technologies ✓ commercial production of HJT ・ Full shift to PERC cells ・ sc-Si increases the share • Further cost reduction • Polysilicon and wafer price reduction • Increase of wafer supply • CdTe PV module increase with First Solar S6 • Consolidation continues China leads high-efficiency technology manufacturing capacity （ 2018） 1 9 Technology Manufacturing Capacity (MW) P-PERC 60000.0 N-PERT 4000.0 HJT 600.0 IBC 100.0 MWT 1500.0 Bifacial Modules 15000.0 Source： CPVS IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Module Trends along the value chain - Debottlenecking - FBR - Metallurgical process - G7 → G8 - HP mc-Si - Continuous pulling sc-Si - DW for sc-Si &mc-Si - Texture - Thinner sc-Si - Using IoT for optimizing cell process - PERC, PERT, SHJ, IBC - Bifacial - Multi-busbars - Half-cut - Shingles - Lower Ag consumption - Glass-Glass - Non-EVA encupsulants - 1,500V - Bifacial - AR coating - Anti-Soiling - Reliability • Higher efficiency • Larger size • Material/ electrodes • Process • Flexible substrates Lower cost equipment/ process / higher throughput/ location 20 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Downstream trends • Bifacial PV modules • Inverter : String vs Centralized, 1500V or more??? • Tracker: Centralized or distributed control? • Floats for FPV • Repowering – Replacing PV module/ inverter – Retrofitting AR coatings • More cost efficient O&M – AI analysis for failure detection and prescheduled maintenance, • PV + Storage , PV + EV (VIPV) • Added value: BIPV, VIPV IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMMEPV and EVs IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 23 PV EV Battery FCV Grid Storage Charge Storage Charge • PV-powered vehicles • PV charging infrastructure (with battery) PV-Powered Vehicle PV Charging Station NEDO, Japan will lead new WG in IEA PVPS, Task 17 PV and Transport 24 Sources: PV Market Alliance Forecasts of PV capacity installed annually in the world An (almost) ever growing market The core of the global market shifted from Europe to Asia 0 50 100 150 200 250 Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GW Europe Middle East & Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Risk of global market decline exists in 2019 if Chinese market decreases (only 5.2 GW installed in Q1). Market above 110 GW is a credible forecast, with potential until 120 GW (high probability), or more (lower probability). EU, India, Middle-East, and more will be source of growth. Market diversification with innovative applications and… new business models 200 GW yearly market? Solar PV at the crossroads IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Summary • Global total capacity reached 0.5 TW and PV contributes ~3% of global electricity • PV could be more competitive with technological advancement • Downstream sectors efforts also contribute further LCOE reduction • PV plus Storage/ EV can accelerate energy transition • Market diversification with innovative applications and… new business models will drive the growth the market IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Acknowledgement NEDO, Japan for the support of IEA PVPS Colleagues of IEA PVPS Task1