广东主要出口贸易国的应对气候变化相关政策措施对广东特定出口行业的影响分析及应对措施研究--广东省国际工程咨询.pdf

广东主要出口贸易国的应对气候变化相关政策措施对广东特定 出口行业的影响分析及应对措施研究 Investigations of Impact and Countermeasures Research of Climate Change Policies from Guangdong s Major Export Trading Countries on Guangdong’s Specific Export Industries 广东省国际工程咨询有限公司 2023.1.28 Guangdong International Enginering Consultant Co., Ltd. January 28, 2023 - 2 - !“#$% :? @AB B !“#C789:;DEFGHIJKLMNAB B O!HI“#P+Q6“#RSTUV%-./? :;9@AB()*CDEFG-HIJ’9KLM6NOB()PQ-RS TUVL? W - XYEZ[\]^_‘Eabc’d97efghij:;klmnop’n qrsYE-tuvw\]^_‘Eab?W Disclaimer - Unles otherwise specified, the views expresed in this report are those of the authors and do not necesarily represent the views of Energy Foundation China. Energy Foundation China does not guarante the accuracy of the information and data included in this report and wil not be responsible for any liabilities resulting from or related to using this report by any third party. - The mention of specific companies, products and services does not imply that they are endorsed or recomended by Energy Foundation China in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. !“#$%?+,56@A I !“ 7 . - 1 - 89 . - 3 - :;?@ . - 6 - 1.1 ABCDEFGHIJKLMN . - 6 - 1.1.1 ABCOPQHI . - 6 - 1.1.2 ABCKLMNR@ . - 10 - 1.2 STUVFGWXKYZ[\]^_‘a . - 12 - :b?+,56@A II 4.2.1 ‹Q‰ _MNR@ . - 53 - 4.2.2 ¿\ Q ` Qi fi . - 54 - 4.2.3 ABC¿\ QeMN Ql¶ . - 55 - 4.2.4 ‹Q¡eXK‘a_HI‚{ . - 56 - 4.3 y ‹Q†…e“«JXK‘a . - 57 - 4.3.1 ‹Q‰ _MNR@ . - 57 - 4.3.2 y ‹Q ` Qi fiK^ . - 58 - 4.3.3 y Ql¶ . - 58 - 4.3.4 ‹Q¡eXK‘a_HI‚{ . - 59 - 4.4 ´ˆ‹Q†…e“«JXK‘a . - 60 - 4.4.1 ‹Q‰ _MNR@ . - 60 - 4.4.2 ´ˆ‹Q ` Qi fi . - 62 - 4.4.3 ˜¯ Ql¶ . - 62 - 4.4.4 ‹Q¡eXK‘a_HI‚{ . - 63 - 4.5 ˘˙‹Q†…e“«JXK‘a . - 64 - 4.5.1 ‹Q‰ _MNR@ . - 64 - 4.5.2 ˘˙ Q ` Qi fi . - 65 - 4.5.3 ‹Q¡eXK‘a_HI‚{ . - 66 - 4.6 ¨ Q†…e“«JXK‘a . - 66 - 4.6.1 ‹Q‰ _MNR@ . - 66 - 4.6.2 ¨ Q ` Qi fi . - 67 - 4.6.3 ¨ Ql¶ . - 68 - 4.6.4 ‹Q¡eXK‘a_HI‚{ . - 68 - :˚Q?@ . - 83 - 5.3 XKYZ[\‘aeA “«JXKłB . - 85 - !“#$%?+,56@A III 5.3.1ABC iC(łøe“« . - 86 - 5.3.2zgh _ q }0f!ØŒ KMN“« - 87 - 5.3.3 i O 0 D K Ce“« . - 88 - EF . - 90 - GH- !GI - 91 - # !“#$%?+,56@A - 1 - ! JK⁄¥YZƒ§6D⁄øLMzNOPC}eMaQR zS TSYZ[\UVWX}VYZXłOCJMaXKYZ[\ [IT# \]^XYZ[\“«_‘a/bkcSdEMeXK YZ[\f‘ gMchMii JejklJ2mn_gh(x S(opdEq“1990a(2007a(2013aMiirs tuv“ 2050aMii Jw Suv“2030a8Miirs(2060a8M ii J_x“cSYZƒ§6|Jy z 6{eÆ|\‰} ~ 4 STYZƒ§ . B STcdW ‹Q) HI ø _ ‘a/ ghJ Sy4 O6N‹› ‹¡ eififl 5M ijulmnOJ ‹Q¡ _ ST]^‘a ; * “« MNcdHI MN Qe _JK‘ bkUVFGW MaYZ[\]^ STcdW e[¡¢*fX _ ⁄¥ iHI£ §currency1 Lc‹Qe “( 3«‹|ø i(›ilfiefl VY_ 4 ¶ ABMN QeXKf‘ –† Qh‡eififlR @ gM “ABUVMNcdSeXKYZ[\f!]^KAB‰ CMN Qe“« – XK‘a¶ ” ;· _p· eiM¶ • “ ‚„§gh(xS0ABUVMNSeYZ[\]^6I K –STJSvMN Q ]eYZ[\” J‘a ŁA BMN Q %£ ?+,56@A - 2 - ;łø `´”ˆ˜¯˘MN Q f! Q–†cd˙¨ N –†f!]^e˚ ¸ijklfi( ‹Q¡0_¯˘]¸J MN Q( QT§OCXK‘a_ K‰CeMN Q p· ˝tKFGHIi˛ –Jˇ“ ¯n— ?+,56@A - 3 - “# 8 YZ[\e⁄¥ƒ§6D…⁄øLMzNOPC}eQ R_˝tzSTSYZ[\UVWX}VY ZXłæOCJMa XKYZ[\ef!]^_x“cSYZƒ§6|Jy Æ| S TcdW MN Qø _ Sˆ˜currency1˘XKYZ[\e⁄ ¥ƒ§ !K“jU•wˆ˜0_XKYZ[\e⁄¥ !K g˝6MN:p_ ABCMNR@łø 2021aMN #45.05$% (´ˆe p03 5 * “«ABCMNcdeWˇJ “ ABCMN Qe _ ”8 ghijulmnOoCBAMp 6fl_2022a12œ gh§7EJg8{Er:;1¶9 CBAM:; h2023a10œ [#?+,56@A - 4 - :„§ST%XKYZ[\ef!]^ Cˇ–†CBAMKAB CMNcd“« l¶ABCUVMN Q† Q3 5 “« gMMN QJ]¸eXK‘a_ JK”8ghCBAM Lp6 ŁoMCDCBAM EU-ETSH Q(3=#⁄ B(ghiı i(88g?+,56@A - 5 - k\;W‚l g˝m¶=; ¯ g˝1u D w o3py Q † OnoE“« p[I˝›˛‹› q ˛ˇ 0 r g˝ ˛‹›st w o4p´ˆ Q †gh3 q 50 ØŒ JxSz q } ´ˆ ]^e“« p56´ˆ› I‹Qur( ˆ˜5Av ; ´ˆ g˝‹› G Svı w o5p˘˙ Q †3i!~5“« :56 OPW u r w‹Q¡ ? ififl ˇ_ xABC]¸ey^zMH STYZƒ§_cd) ?+,56@A - 6 - $%˝_ SKLMN21.73$% S e @ 3 _ 2021a AB ‹ r…12.44$%łø ABC ‘+, %b 70aa E +,eFG[?+,56@A - 7 - EHIe!p J¥C.; c ; ‹Q[=;eFG?+,56@A - 8 - !1 “#$%?+,56@A - 9 - KFGDE⁄ J HI/ ¯«1˜# : A¯fi e‹Q ımØ=;J‹QHIe WT / 8fl ( ¶ •‹M(G ˝(ØŒd6( ?@¸ ^sACD ^0{ BCD0 |0^0{EF |}^0{ C GH^ - - IJx :^K ’L EMN ’ J: ’x O ˘ ’z{x Ez{ ‘’ =¡ ’xO´P ’ ’Q ’x:; ’ £ O ’ ?+,56@A - 10 - rs Q – –†‡· ‘ ^ ¶ ^ˆ˜ ¯˘ ˙ ¨ O‘ ^ ‘ ^ ^ ‘ ^ =¡¢£^⁄ =¡ ¥ƒ §currency1 ^ =¡¥ƒ §currency1 ^=¡ ‘ ^ O ^˚O ^ ^ ˝˛ˇ— — tu ^z ~ ^|}~ C tuz{ ^¸ ¸2 ^=¡ ‘~ tu ^hififlfit tuh i ^vY ^zC z #$ ab^wxG ;?+,56@A - 11 - t¸!‚ 2021aABCMN #5.05$% ] ¸n2H h˜ t˝§l¶ › I(y .( 3.# - 中国香港：11370 美国：8615 欧盟：7166 东盟：6142 日本：1808 韩国：1191 中国台湾：765 其他：13444 机电类：39% 电子元件等：15% 家具等：5% 精密仪器类：4% 玩具等：4% 塑料及其制品：4% 其他 !“#$%?+,56@A - 12 - 1.2 789:)*;?@ABCDE 2021a ABCUVMNcdSyJ 4Bh(gh(xS( o(—0_ KxSJgheMN#c’… MN#e21%_ SyJ eXKYZ[\f!]^‘aeM *KABM Ncd‹ fi e _ V´dK SyJ ef !]^6 ⁄øe ˇ_ ‘a/ JK⁄¥YZƒ§6D⁄øLMzNOPC}eMa QR zSTSYZ[\UVWX}VYZXłOCJMaXKYZ [\ [IT# \]^XYZ[\“«_ bkcSdE MeXKYZ[\f‘ gMchMii JejklJ2mn ˝tSTS]¸kYZ[\ EoIPCpf e⁄* I Wª HrSy O fi HI Syh fienO_IPCP lcSYZ[\e 4z ⁄ { K fieSy O R ¯H HrSyK“⁄¥ fi ˜eÆI [ ?+,56@A - 13 - # S» …‰-S»ƒ H 2 ‘^œ‘Æ “«H SeSTcd yK cd eC•ı “ ª 4 1u k ª eŁOØŁŒ cde‘a_UVh iSTJ w e1 WX(S-1 q J (ISO14001u §W J1u 20h ‘a( ‹J 3łq 1u:pv \VY0 ‚_” cd X eAº v cd li£B⁄ ⁄ _ M˛%ıXKYZ[\f!]^‘a UVhi !~O _gh(xS(op(—S0SyJ K˝ ˝ e‹›} 6NG ~ $ŁOJŒ 6N M cd O _ ØŒ O _ SyJ æ ØŒ JFG @ : q R OC )e O ØŒ ˘1HI Sy‹› fi HrSyeı L_ 1u 2O _ı ı1 ‹›eq6 _ ”8q 40⁄ SyJ 5 1u 2O †˚ØPl; 1 fłu _ h O _4 ø h #$ £:eh œ Œ1 uP:ß SyOCeh #$ hi œ e— ( J _ : :“ )e h ‘a * !HI SyeKLcd_ O _4 “˝#e1u:p Syª $%e 1u K Q ‹›g 1u P:MNe:p _ ?+,56@A - 14 - (*+(, (- .0“« K‹›⁄øe )’/ ø £ ‹›6DSvı _Kƒ›J“›“« Sy‚ e’( J‘a £:M˛%ecd _ ⁄ST Q4 XK01u˝ei(Ji fiVY *˝i fifl‹› ‹ …1u]^$%eHI Sy x ˘1“i2 3”_ 4 XKJø x“6MNcd1/ei23 gh E“2021a7œ BW4 ijklmnOoCBAMp q5 6 2026a BMai!~ ?(qS( @ 0¢f¡Me›A‹›i 5 *“ i”#4K“ ‹›(¨ ›0e›A Q X¡8g ØB=${ ‹:|eififlˇ_ øKbkUVFGW f! QeXKYZ[\ OCe ]^‘a ABC#4 SLc:; C MNf!e¿\(´ˆ( y ( „”»(b¨0 QHI*†… ]| e“«_MN‹ ›HB Q ‹Q¡%?+,56@A - 15 - :D¯ KMN Qe £: _ ⁄¥ iHI£ ?+,56@A - 16 - $+?@A p#e3= wghi !“#$%?+,56@A - 17 - fifl dW vc!Ve ƒ§w ghififl dW ( )”\e‘a_2022a12œr:e ]P{ı ? ghififl dW v^ fifle ˇ †“2034a E B3=#w]j Kø i23˙¨e3Qla E3=# ˇ_#()“ 2021a5œquŁ_N50g?+,56@A - 19 - e BR}jk(‹›EF(fiflˇ (J3=# se _ :tu(˚~vwx(yz ghW vSyJ5 gh¸L« { _gh‚ iı |}ew Le~ghSyJ ; CBAMe EF v_/WMał 9l5_ !5 WXYZ[\]^_‘abcdegh lmn oF9pn 2c 2023 10 2025 ? 2026 łE5 ^¡^z‘^ ^ ˇ 2026 R d ~ ‘ ~ ‘^¢^—Æ ^ ÆP£ {E ‘ ? 2030QøœKß `ª( ˘ ETS -m:’ ’⁄ =¡ _ ’ ^ ^ ^!“^ #^ $ _’ — ¡ Æ; ˘†?@A ^ yA @BE C P£? 8 `ª’[o - ` ª `ª ?}D5+ E Fr G- ⁄ jCBAM H-IJK(6? 2023 1 1 2024 ’LM * “NOj[-Y(CBAM()’() ´ˆ˜G ⁄ ‘- › `ª0 † ?8 `ª0 ’Eœ K‘’ t _U£;mqt/ CD? !“#$%?+,56@A - 20 - CBAMA5 -:rƒH - 04CBAMA5-r‰F ETS `ªdØr‰st’j ETS\ uvwx¨yr-zw {r‰?| 2022 3 ’ “«r‰}j88 /1 }P6~ 623 /1’sA + ? iRS “ B-æ £⁄ œ _ ijU£RS- “BmWæ ;%F0-CBAMA5? £⁄ )eY_; ˘` ª( H - n`ªdØ RS-’ ˘ |}-U =Ø? # :_˝t P9_TA(2022)0248 Annex 3a i!~C(e6CWB4 “6N‹› ‹ˇ 6NS“@‹›ififl oghiı i( 6NSq ~ i:pp o1-0a? e3=# sp”_tghJ F U VW¶ X A†Ł MaCBAM_a*1/˝r % g ejk — 3=#egMjkl 6 _8$! STDEeD¯ g 5 IIGF | p*+, 4 6;?+,56@A - 21 - h} CBAMe ¯‚lıS…@ E$UV†ghv ‹Qk ˆ$e“«_ ”8CBAMe/Wo z [ _Ma jkłø CBAMe:; l 42023.10-2025a Q :; øæ ififl ł• 2026aR BMa f! 6N æ Vd gh : eCBAM ]n!ª xF † CBAMq X _ qXKX“6N › HPe1Nb \i_3=# słø CBAM‹›e3=#Jghiı f x2026a[ # s -497.5%(95%(90%(77.5%(51.5%(39%(26.5%(14% 2034a ⁄ B3=#_ 2.2 X7NG77YO?@P9:AB 2.2.1 X7Z[\AB]^_‘aHIUKLbcd 2009aezxS _ ⁄q } n‚ ˇ ghei fifl dW †gM‚ ijulmnOeVY_6N x“ST ¶#´”” fifl# pxififlŁO )| f eSy _xS ˜jP{eSy6Ne‹›p3:`• _ q †. 6 ¸ Ł6N‹›eififl_ xSSv ijec ł C(łB% gM i~ fifl=0 łBC( J ˇ O_ dłBC(eij_() nOłø ?+,56@A - 22 - Ł“ijulm~ ; R M KcS ]eiC(]^ K6N‹›}~†KMN‹›g~enO_ 2021a7œ xSW4z2021a cd]^{|} 6 g… T^eR@ J C_ Eg e ;˚ ß 6{ “ )«“¿g ezxS «˘q }† !“juilm ‘af!vwe C ı` :`‘a/D i23 _ SE% ⁄*YZg q´øˆ ⁄*˜ p ıxS . S¯´ø‚ i~ ififl dW _ 2.2.2 G7=efg 2022a7œ ˘˘ eG7sE% ˙S‡¨l ~+ 2022aa 8: ; ⁄¥3YZ 5 Pl ¶ eSy 2050a8XKYZ[\JMiYZ Je ˜_ H YZ ˚ p HrSy”8 VW(STcd(⁄¥ƒ§%e I 3i!~]h5 M_YZ / UV‰} :; H : eiC(nOV p w:b . ª YZ ˜e~: Sp E†…O w: : S k*¸†3 !~ M ¢ıcS D ;nOe˜ _YZ e! ‰}ı ˝O ª ª ˜eSy_ SyXKYZ[\ ¶ JSTT# T U ˛ ˇ— 4 ¸ UVHrSy;ª 3 X˝ 5Be nO !“#$%?+,56@A - 24 - MT \ 8YZuv RT3\]p -e4 5J SyhU890⁄¥YZ\t “⁄¥ XKYZ[\%[ ISTT# K⁄¥\¢*P: ´*e _K S ecd S 9 ./¢*‹ “«_ 2.2.3ZhijkQl_m‘a=?@nopqrstu z2022a q }UV ⁄JYZ[\(¥ §currency1(~O ¡0{ ¶ : ] »(?@A BCı ⁄J YZ[\«w 3690%x ´ˆHIg ~+0 § 5˜ FG i\ bi\HI gu v = ? :p_ x]¸ 4 `q “*xS YWfiflˇ 2030a X 10%N ?Ł2005a e40%wv J ˜´ˆ~ 3ey _a*mC£:1000x&_ z q } ! JXKYZ[\e]^ L * UVFGW łøe _”8 S J1 «weHIJ D ‹⁄¥2/3 %e