2023年欧盟人口统计与气候变化（英文版）-欧盟委员会.pdf

ISSN XXX-XXXX This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commision. Neither the European Comision nor any person acting on behalf of the Commision is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commision services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, teritory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Fabrizio Natale Email: fabrizio.natale@ec.europa.eu EU Science Hub https:/joint-research-centre.c.europa.eu JRC133580 EUR 31512 EN Print ISBN 978-92-68-04047-8 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2760/82662 KJ-NA-31-512-EN-C PDF ISBN 978-92-68-03464-4 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/2641 KJ-NA-31-512-EN-N Luxembourg: Publications Ofice of the European Union 2023 © European Union, 2023 The reuse policy of the European Commission documents is implemented by the Comission Decision 201/83/EU of 12 December 201 on the reuse of Commision documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Unles otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is alowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the European Union, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. The European Union does not own the copyright in relation to the following elements: - Cover page ilustration, © Alexander Ozerov / stock.adobe.com; © appledesign / stock.adobe.com - page 16, ©blvdone / stock.adobe.com; ©number141 / stock.adobe.com; ©Diego / stock.adobe.com; ©Emanuel Corso / stock.adobe.com - page 34, ©zoranlino / stock.adobe.com; ©Alexander Ozerov / stock.adobe.com; ©Evrymnt / stock.adobe.com; ©kunakorn / stock.adobe.com - page 48, ©Halfpoint / stock.adobe.com - page 61, ©zz17 / stock.adobe.com; How to cite this report: Deuster, C., Kajander, N., Muench, S., Natale, F., Nede, A., Scapolo, F., Uefing, P. and Vesnic Alujevic, L., Demography and climate change, EUR 31512 EN, Publications Ofice of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, doi:10.2760/26411, JRC133580. i Contents Abstract . 1 Foreword 2 Executive summary . 4 Introduction . 9 Chapter 1 The role of population growth for greenhouse gas emissions at the global level 15 Chapter 2 Demographic characteristics and emissions in the EU 33 Chapter 3 Sociodemographic differences in the attitudes towards climate change . 47 Chapter 4 A foresight perspective on demographic developments 60 References . 68 List of figures 76 List of Boxes 78 Appendix Introduction 79 Appendix Chapter 2 . 80 Appendix Chapter 3 . 83 Appendix Chapter 4 . 90 1 Abstract Demography is intimately related to both climate change adaptation and mitigation. The report focuses on demography and climate mitigation through analyses of trajectories for emisions and population at global and EU levels. At the global level, the report highlights the role of population momentum. While population growth implies almost by definition higher emissions, at least in the short term, the intrinsic inertia in demographic processes implies that solutions to reduce emisions ned to come from reducing inequalities, the greening of the economy and a change in consumption rather than from interventions on fertility. At the EU level, the report finds that although in absolute terms older people emit les, they have higher per capita emisions, a greater share of their emissions is concentrated in carbon-intensive consumption items and they are less likely to change their attitudes or behaviour towards more environmentaly friendly patterns. Considering the trends for the ageing of the EU population, these intergenerational differences in consumption and attitudes ad a new policy challenge to the already pressing need to reduce the diferences in responsibilities for emissions linked to income. 2 Foreword Our Europe is constantly evolving. Today, two of the most significant megatrends are population growth and climate change. They are trends that canot be seen day-to-day, or even year-to-year. In a world where only fast-moving trends catch the eye, they tend to pas unoticed. It often fals to scientists to explain their implications, and to point to the fundamental transformations that they will eventually bring. The report that folows, written by the Joint Research Centre at the European Comision, takes a close lok at both trends, and of the manner in which they interact. It examines how changes in the structure and size of populations wil impact our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emisions, mitigate climate change, and promote environmental sustainability, by looking at trends such as age, gender, education and the composition of the working population. It shows that despite the slow rate of change, these demographic factors must be included in our efforts to reach carbon neutrality by the year 2050. Levels of education, geographical distribution, and inter-generational change are shown to be especialy important, as they exert significant influence on atitudes to climate change. The report clearly demonstrates how younger generations, people who are highly educated and residents of large towns are more aware of the problem of climate change, and more open to changing their behaviour, with education being the single strongest factor. Climate Change and Demography reminds us that even under optimistic scenarios, where the Paris target of limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5 degres is met, considerable challenges will remain. There wil be temperature and precipitation extremes, more tropical storms, and a significant rise in sea levels. And demographic factors wil play a major role in our efforts to adapt to climate change. Not everybody wil be afected in the same maner, with some societies and some sectors of society significantly more vulnerable than others. Wealthy populations with high education levels tend to have more eficient institutions and beter public health systems, and efective early warning systems. As the dangers of climate change grow over time, these demographic effects wil become increasing noticeable. This underlines the importance of looking beyond mitigation, and of factoring demographic trends into long-term adaptive capacity. For policymakers, there are many important implications in the knowledge that follows. When combined with reports with a broader environmental scope 1 ), they serve as an urgent reminder of the ned for policies that are not only green and transformational, but inclusive as well. Our green future wil need to be built – by citizens and for citizens, leaving no one behind. Unforeseen training needs wil need to be met, and fiscal policies wil need to be adapted to avoid growing disparities. Designing efective policies requires a clear understanding of the target audience. This report points to a picture that is shifting, and we wil study its lesons with care. It wil help improve our understanding of the interplay between populations, climate, biodiversity and environmental change, and of the need for well-designed policies that help Europe adapt to the complex changes ahead. Europe is evolving – and with good policymaking, we can steer it to a sustainable, inclusive future. Dubravka Šuica Virginijus Sinkevičius Vice-President Democracy and Demography Commisioner Environment, Oceans and Fisheries 1 The EU Environmental Foresight System (FORENV) – Final report of 2021-22 annual cycle – Emerging environmental isues due to demographic changes in the EU, Publications Ofice of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023 ISBN 978-92-76-60198-2, 3 Acknowledgements We thank: Desa SRESEN (CAB Šuica) for the steering of this study; Wolfgang LUTZ (IASA), Manfred ROSENSTOCK (DG ENV) and Nicole OSTLAENDER (JRC) for coments and suggestions; Patrick GERLAND (United Nations Population Division) for guidance with the UN Population Projections data; Guido TINTORI for fedback and contributions to Chapter 3; Sona KALANTARYAN for the assistance in relation to Afrobarometer in Chapter 3; Francesco SERMI (JRC), Janet AVRAMIDES (JRC), Jan LOESCHNER and Davide BONGIARDO (JRC) for the assistance with communication material and graphical editing. Authors Christoph DEUSTER (Chapter 3), Nina KAJANDER (Box 1, 2), Stefan MUENCH (Chapter 4), Fabrizio NATALE (Editor, Executive summary, Introduction, Chapter 1 and Chapter 2), Astrid NEDE (Box 1, 2), Fabiana SCAPOLO (Executive sumary), Philipp UEFFING (Chapter 1), Lucia VESNIC ALUJEVIC (Chapter 4) 4 Executive summary The defining role of population in climate change re-emerged in November 202 when the world population reached of the symbolic milestone of 8 bilion. Besides affluence and technology, population is the third factor in the equation determining global emissions. The relationship between demography and climate change can be seen from two directions. On one side, population size and demographic characteristics influence emisions and mitigation efforts. On the other side, populations are impacted by climate change, and demographic characteristics are among the fundamental aspects that ned to be considered when asesing the exposure and vulnerability, as well as climate change adaptation options. This report focuses on the mitigation side of the relationship and provides analyses of trajectories of emissions and population at the global and EU levels. While the alarmist views of exponential population growth, which characterised the debate in the 1970s, are by now mostly superseded, the discusions about the role of population growth on emisions continue to shift between diferent viewpoints. One indicates that each person on an already crowded planet wil almost by definition increase overall emissions, a second one emphasises the ned to address income inequalities within and across regions, and a third one believes in the role of disruptive innovations in overcoming the sustainability chalenges posed by economic and population growth. The slowdown of population growth, the prevailing role asigned to income and techno-optimism should not come at the expense of a more encompassing consideration of demographic factors in climate change mitigation eforts. Some demographers have lamented that the population is often considered as an accessory only or just as an exogenous input in the energy and economic models of climate change. Actually, demography is barely mentioned, or not adequately considered, in the tolbox of climate mitigation and adaptation policies. In an efort to raise awareness of the role of demography in climate change, this report, with a mix of empirical analyses, literature review, policy mapping and foresight, addresses a series of key questions relating to the impacts that demographic change in the EU and at the global level have on emisions. What is the role of per capita greenhouse gas emissions across main world regions as compared to trends in population, technologies and economic growth? How are these trends decoupled from emisions? The growth of the world population over the medium term is driven by the youthful age structure of some world populations, which stems from past high fertility. The so-caled demographic momentum implies that some of the further growth of the total population in the coming decades is already pre-programmed in the age structure of the population, even if fertility is at a replacement level. Therefore, immediate solutions to reduce emisions until 2050 must come primarily from the greening of the world economy and a change in per capita consumption. This does not mean that changes in the global population size are irelevant. In the longer term, population size wil mater greatly in terms of vulnerability and population’s capacity to adapt to the already unavoidable climate change. Considering future emisions, the population size of the curent low-emission countries wil make a big diference as their economies grow and consumption levels rise. Both of these issues require more careful studies in terms of their implications for sustainability. Within the general trend of global population growth, it is key to take into account regional diferences in the demographic structure and the relations between population dynamics and urbanisation, green transition and development. Future population growth wil be concentrated in the regions of the world which have currently the lowest of per capita emissions and limited responsibility for past emisions (Figure 1). Although starting from this low level, these regions are expected to have the slowest progres in terms of decarbonisation, improvement in energy eficiency and decoupling of economic growth from emissions. 5 Figure 1 Population, emisions and carbon intensity Source: own elaboration of energy and emision projections from IEA (2022) and population projections from UNDESA. Se Chapter 1 for details. Notes: the size and the colour of the symbols reflect the emisions per capita and the carbon intensity (i.e., the ratio betwen emissions and energy). The EU needs to continue its diplomatic efforts at the global level on climate action to guard its position as a role model for the international comunity. It lies with the EU and other affluent regions that have acounted for a large share of historic emisions to lead the coordination efforts to reduce energy intensity, develop green technology to decouple economic activity from burning fosil fuels and adopt more sustainable consumption patterns. Policies supporting sustainable development through improvement in health, and education, as well as inequality and poverty reduction may slow population growth when carefuly designed, but the international consensus on a comon population and development agenda is waning. The EU could further intensify its suport for strategies to reduce child and maternal mortality, provision of universal access to education, particularly of girls, gender equality, ending of child mariage, and provision of universal access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights. What wil be the efect of ageing, shrinking household size, better education and urbanisation on emisions in the EU? Despite having a marginal role in global population growth, the demographi