【推荐】GIZ-迈向零排放：中国气候路径概述及其对交通运输行业的影响（英文原版）.pdf

1 Towards Zero Emissions China’s Climate Pathway and its Implications for the Transport Sector Implemented by Supported by 2 Imprint As a federally owned enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. Published by: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Registered offices Bonn and Eschborn, Germany Address Tayuan Diplomatic Office Building 2-5 14 Liangmahe South Street, Chaoyang District 100600, Beijing, PR China T +86-(0)10-8527 5589 F +86-(0)10-8527 5591 E transition-china@giz.de I www.mobility.transition-china.org Project NDC Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA) is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and is supported by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) Responsible Sebastian Ibold (GIZ) E transition-china@giz.de I www.mobility.transition-china.org Authors Sebastian Ibold, Yun Xia Layout Xin Hu, Lang Liu Photo credits Shutterstock / Mindscanner (Front Cover) Shutterstock / David Dennis (Back cover) Maps The maps printed here are intended only for information purposes and in no way constitute recognition under international law of boundaries and territories. GIZ accepts no responsibility for these maps being entirely up to date, correct or complete. All liability for any damage, direct or indirect, resulting from their use is excluded. URL links Responsibility for the content of external websites linked in this publication always lies with their respective publishers. GIZ expressly dissociates itself from such content. Beijing, 20213 Contents Background 1 China’s climate pathway 2 China’s current transport sector development 9 Key policies for China’s transport sector development 13 Recommendations 17 Transport emission peaking and decarbonization strategies 17 Aligning the transition in the transport and energy sectors 18 The Four Nows! 19 International cooperation 21 4 Since China’s announcement in late 2020 that it would peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and attain carbon neutrality by 2060, the debate on how to decarbonize the transport sector has been heating up. Given growing demand for passenger and freight transport and rising motorization, the sector will be a hard nut to crack. Various decarbonization technologies are already on the table. Among the most promising solutions for reducing emissions and increasing efficiency is electric transport powered by clean energy. But the path to zero- carbon freight, aviation, and maritime transport will be difficult. In order to align the Chinese transport sector with the country’s 2030 and 2060 targets, clear strategies and ambitious measures are needed. This includes not only the adoption of innovative technologies but also an accelerated shift to climate- friendly transport modes and a stronger focus on trip avoidance through holistic urban planning. At the same time, it must be ensured that sector transformation leaves no one behind and remains socially and economically sustainable. International cooperation, the sharing of expertise, and in-depth dialogue can positively contribute to the sustainable and climate-friendly development of the transport sector – in China and elsewhere. This paper provides a general description of the role of the transport sector in achieving China’s carbon peaking and neutrality goals. In addition, it aims to foster debate on the policies, technologies, measures, and partnerships needed to achieve those objectives. This discussion is not exhaustive, however. It focuses on just a few approaches and measures that can help achieve China’s targets. 1 Background Over the past few decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undergone a rapid and comprehensive socio- economic transformation. With this transformation have come new industries, cities, and infrastructure, as well as the eradication of absolute poverty 1 . Urbanization has played a key role in China’s development. In the past 20 years alone, China’s urban population has grown by about 390 million people. By the end of 2019, the country’s urbanization level had reached 60.6%. During the same 20-year period, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew from 1 trillion euros to 13.1 trillion euros. The draft of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) 2 , which was approved during the Two Sessions ( 两会) 3 in March 2021, sets an urbanization target of 65% for the end of 2025. This means that in the next five years alone another 69 million people will relocate to cities (see Figure 1). Figure 1. Development of China’s urban population Source: GIZ 1 See http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202102/2 6/content_WS603858f0c6d0719374af99ab.html 2 See the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan and long-range objectives for 2035. 3 The “two sessions” refer to the annual plenary sessions of China’s National People’s Congress NPC and the Chinese People’s National Consultative Conference CPPCC. 2 China’s climate pathway China’s economic growth and urbanization have brought environmental problems and high carbon emissions. Today, China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG). The 10.5 Gt of CO2 it released in 2018 accounts for about one-third of global emissions (Figure 2) 4 . Climate change is a key challenge for China because a large part of its population is concentrated along the coastline, which is vulnerable to rising sea levels as well as harvest and food insecurity caused by extreme weather. Increasingly, climate risks are pushing China to adopt a sustainable, low-carbon development pathway. The pathway’s goal is to build a “Beautiful China” 5 by the middle of the 21st century while also continuing the urbanization process, striking a balance between urban and rural development, and attending to the country’s aging population. Figure 2. Annual total CO2 emissions, by world region Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project 4 See China Academy of Transportation Sciences (CATS). 5 The Communist Party of China (CPC) has incorporated the idea of a “Beautiful China” in its “two-stage development plan”. In the first stage, from 2020 to 2035, China aims to achieve “socialist modernization”. In the second stage, from 2035 to the middle of the 21st century, China aims at building a “great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful”. 3 Since its 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2010–2015), China has set a course to green and low-carbon development 6 . The year 2020 represents an important milestone, particularly for the calibration of China’s climate protection roadmap (see Figure 3, Step 3). On Tuesday, September 22, 2020, during his speech at the General Debate of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China aims to peak its CO2 emissions before the year 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. On December 12, 2020, at the 2020 Climate Ambition Summit, Mr Xi further announced that China will lower its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%, increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters relative to the 2005 level, and bring the total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts. These targets go above and beyond China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which were submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in June 2015. 7 Figure 3. China’s climate roadmap (selection) Source: GIZ 6 At the Copenhagen Summit in 2009, China put forward a 40%-45% reduction target in CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 relative to 2005. In its 12th Five-Year Plan, China pledged a 17% reduction of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 2015 relative to 2010. 7 In its 2015 NDCs, China pledged to “peak CO 2 emissions around the year 2030 while making best efforts to peak earlier” See https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocumen ts/China%20First/China s%20First%20NDC%20Submission. pdf 4 The new 2030 and 2060 goals were submitted as updated NDCs to the UNFCCC on September 28, 2021, three days ahead of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP26) 8 . While a 2030 peaking target (with best efforts to peak earlier) was already part of China’s 2015 NDC to the Paris Agreement, China’s September 2020 announcement was its first carbon neutrality target to go public. China joined a group of 137 countries that have now committed to carbon neutrality 9 (Figure 4). Besides its deep impact on the global climate agenda, the announcement has far-reaching consequences for China’s domestic policy over the coming decades. For China to meet its target, it will have to phase out conventional coal, oil, and gas by 2060. Doing so will require no less than the complete transformation of the country’s socio-economic structure, with deep and ambitious reforms across all sectors. Figure 4. Carbon neutrality goals Source: Visual Capitalist 8 See https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Part y.aspx?party=CHN 9 https://www.visualcapitalist.com/race-to-net-zero-carbon- neutral-goals-by-country/ 5 Along with the announcement came the first calls for action. On September 27, 2020, the Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, one of China’s top climate research institutes, presented a 12.7 trillion euro, 30-year roadmap for ending the use of coal for electricity generation by around 2050, drastically increasing nuclear and renewable power generation, and electrifying 80% of China’s energy consumption by 2060 10 . If China wants to deliver on its pledges to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, ambitious and binding goals have to be set in every sector, and effective policies, roadmaps, and measures have to be implemented. This is particularly true for the 14th FYP (2021–2025) and 15th FYP periods (2026–2030), which are key to steering China’s development over the next four decades. The Outline for the 14th Five- Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives Through 2035 set various targets shaping the climate roadmap, including a binding 18% CO2 intensity reduction target (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP), a binding 13.5% energy 10 See https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/29/asia- pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/china-climate-change- road-map-2060/ 11 See http://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/c23934/202103/e d3ca743486b43acabbdce4323466937/files/a54ecbc67f2c4e f78b8fc12c5717e85b.pdf intensity reduction target (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by 2025, and an increase in the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 20%. (The last goal was set in 2009. The reported share in 2020 was 15.8%). The outline does not include a specific GDP growth target for 2025 (although a target of over 6% for 2021 was set in the Report on the Work of the Government, presented by Premier Li Keqiang during the Two Sessions 11 ). A CO2 emission cap or coal cap are also not foreseen 12 . In order to align the 2030 and 2060 climate targets with the requirements for China’s overall socio-economic development and its individual sectors, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with various other ministries and institutions, is currently developing the 1+N Policy System for CO2 Peaking and Carbon Neutrality (Figure 5). The policy system covers guidance for 2030 CO2 peaking and 2060 carbon neutrality along with descriptions of the policies and action plans for key areas including energy, industry, transport, and the circular economy. 12 A detailed briefing by CarbonBrief on what the 14th FYP means for climate change can be found here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-14th-five- year-plan-mean-for-climate-change 6 Figure 5. 1+N policy system for CO2 peaking and carbon neutrality Source: GIZ On October 24, 2021, the Working Guidance for Carbon Dioxide Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in Full and Faithful Implementation of the New Development Philosophy 13 was released by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. The policy, the first of the 1+N policy system for CO2 peaking and carbon neutrality, provides high-level guidance for China’s national and international development strategy. The policy aims to align China’s 2030 and 2060 climate targets with its socio- economic development, individual sector development, technology roadmaps, standards, laws and regulations, policies, and implementation mechanisms. 13 See https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/policies/202110/t20211024_1 300725.html The Working Guidance policy has the following main objectives: 1. By 2025, in line with the targets outlined in the 14th FYP and the updated NDCs, the aim is to create an initial framework for a green, low- carbon, and circular economy and greatly improve the energy efficiency of key industries, laying a solid foundation for carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality. 2. By 2030, make significant inroads into the comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society, with energy efficiency in key energy-consuming in-dustries reaching advanced international levels as CO2 emissions peak and then decline. 3. By 2060, achieve carbon neutrality 7 by establishing a green, low-carbon, and circular economy and a clean, low-carbon, energy system whose efficiency is on par with international levels and whose share of non-fossil energy consumption is over 80%. The policy requires that the 2030 and 2060 goals be incorporated into the country’s medium- and long-term development plans and be balanced with the requirements of the energy sector, industry, supply chain, food security, and “daily life”. Under the guidance of the policy, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China on October 26, 2021 created the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking before 2030 14 . Other relevant “N” policies and action plans for key areas (including transport) will be released in the coming months as part of the 1+N policy system. In order to ensure that the 2030 and 2060 targets align with the requirements for socio-economic development and 14 See https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/policies/202110/t20211027_1301020. html 15 https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-china-creates-new-leaders- group-to-help-deliver-its-climate-goals. The meeting was attended by four other top-level officials including Vice-Premier Liu He, State Councilor Wang Yong, State Councilor Wang Yi, and the reinforce overall climate work coordination, China’s central government established the Leading Group on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality, which consists of the leaders of the country’s national ministries and agencies 15 . The office of the leading group is part of the NDRC. The first plenary meeting