世界银行-人类发展与环境成果综述（英）.pdf

Policy Research Working Paper 10438 A Review of Human Development and Environmental Outcomes Diego Ambasz Anshuman Gupta Harry Anthony Patrinos Education Global Practice May 2023 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support Team Abstract The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Policy Research Working Paper 10438 As climate change and its impact on the physical environ- ment become increasingly evident, its relationship with human development outcomes is becoming a key area of research. While numerous researchers have studied the ways in which the immediate environment affects human capital, literature on the impact of human capital on the environ- ment remains scarce. Despite the heightened interest in understanding the linkages between human development outcomes and environmental factors, most studies of this relationship are theoretical, correlational, or observational, thus lacking causality. This paper surveys the literature and explores how evidence can be established for policies focus- ing on human development and environmental outcomes. The paper presents a conceptual framework incorporating direct and indirect pathways – including cognitive and noncognitive factors through which improved education can lead to better environmental behaviors. Of the 31 stud- ies reviewed, a majority (27 studies) present observational findings, while only a few (four studies, or 13 percent) use a quasi-experimental design to establish causality. The few causal studies suggest that it is possible to change attitudes but more difficult to change environmental behaviors. The review raises the key question of whether policies aimed at improving climate change awareness through education can effectively produce long-lasting changes in pro-environ- mental behaviors. Much more work is needed to advance understanding of how human capital policy can help mit- igate or promote adaptation to climate change. This paper is a product of the Education Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at hpatrinos@worldbank.org.A Review of Human Development and Environmental Outcomes Diego Ambasz Anshuman Gupta Harry Anthony Patrinos 1 World Bank World Bank World Bank JEL: Q54; I25 Keywords: Education; human capital; climate change 1 Paper prepared under the Advancing the Human Development Agenda within the EU’s Green Deal (ID: P175948). Thanks to Ana-Maria Boromisa, Karla J. Mcevoy, and Maria Ustinova for comments. All errors are our own and the views expressed here are not to be attributed to the World Bank Group. 2 1. Introduction Environmental conditions, such as those pertaining to natural resources and climate, are intrinsically linked to human development outcomes in numerous ways. For example, exposure to poor air and water quality among populations is linked to birth defects and cognitive deficits in children (Ferguson et al. 2013). Similarly, workers in mining industries are known to have lower life expectancy due to exposure to heavy metals and toxic environmental conditions, and children living in more polluted environments display higher levels of chronic absenteeism (MacNaughton et al. 2017; Bangay and Blum 2010). On the other hand, human development outcomes such as improved educational attainment in turn may be linked to better environmental outcomes through pathways such as increased awareness about environmental issues and improved access to resources to address them. Is there a link between human development outcomes and environmental outcomes? If so, are there ways to establish a causal relationship? What is the impact of schooling on climate actions, including attitudes, behaviors, and outcomes? We answer these questions by first surveying the literature that investigates the impact of environmental changes on human development outcomes. Then, with more focus, we look at the impact of human development on environmental outcomes, while also assessing the strength of such associations. Despite the heightened interest in understanding the linkages between human development outcomes and environmental factors, most studies of this relationship are only theoretical, correlational, or observational, thus lacking causality. We look at causal estimates of the impact of educational interventions on different environmental outcomes. We explore how evidence can be established for policies focusing on human development and environmental outcomes. We find that there are ways to causally estimate the impact of education on climate outcomes and propose approaches. The broader relationships between economic development and environmental outcomes have been a topic of enquiry for researchers for a long time. The seminal paper by Grossman and Krueger (1995) was among the first to study this relationship using a global dataset. Using panel data (1977- 1990) on four environmental indicators (urban air pollution, the state of the oxygen regime in river basins, fecal contamination of river basins, and contamination of river basins by heavy metals), the authors find that environmental outcomes initially worsen with increasing per capita GDP but eventually witness a U-shaped recovery as incomes increase above a critical threshold. The authors suggest that as countries prosper economically, their citizens demand better environmental conditions, thus improving environmental standards. The study validated the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and was followed by further research to replicate and extend the initial findings (see Goklany 1999; Panayotou 1995). A later cross-sectional study by Jha and Murthy (2003) also highlights a similar relationship. The authors construct a composite environmental degradation index (EDI) for 174 countries using six indicators of environmental degradation or pollution and identify its relationship with the Human Development Index (HDI). The study suggests an inverted N-curve that indicates that countries with high levels of development and lower values of HDI rank contribute more to environmental degradation while mid-ranking countries have the least levels of environmental degradation. Similarly, the paper by Dogan and Inglesi-Lotz (2020) considers how changes in economic 3 structure from developing to developed countries in the European Union (EU) relate to carbon emissions. They find that carbon emissions increase initially as countries move from agriculture to manufacturing, but a rising share of the service sector and increasing per capita incomes leads to reduced emissions, thus confirming the U-shaped curve. A more recent paper by Mrabet et al. (2021) uses panel data for 16 Middle Eastern and North African countries (period 1990–2016) to examine the relationship between Ecological Footprint and HDI. They find that improving HDI will harm the environment in the early stages of development by increasing the Ecological Footprint, but as the country develops, further increases in human development will result in lower levels of environmental degradation. These findings thus suggest that human development and political stability can have a positive effect on the environment through better education and health care systems. However, validating these mechanisms and establishing a causal relationship still requires further research. The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. The next section presents a synthesis of literature to establish that climate change can indeed affect human development outcomes. It also presents an overview of the adaptation and mitigation measures that can reduce the negative impact of climate change. While some interventions, such as risk assessment of buildings and disaster management, can aid adaptation and reduce climate vulnerabilities, others, such as curriculum redesign and promoting research in universities, can enable mitigation. The last section then shifts focus to the literature on the linkages between education and climate change and presents a possible framework to study these linkages. The last part of that section also presents compulsory schooling laws as one instrument that can be used to establish causal linkages. 2. Impact of Climate on Human Development The influence of our physical environment and climate on human development outcomes such as educational attainment and child mortality has been studied by researchers in different contexts and regions of the world. While weather changes can directly affect human development outcomes by disrupting access to infrastructure such as schools or hospitals, availability of staff (teachers, doctors and nurses, etc.), and increasing incidence of diseases, research in countries across the globe has shown that changes in weather patterns can also affect cognitive performance, rate of skill formation, work behavior, workforce migration, and labor market participation (see Deuster 2021; Das 2020; Li 2020; Zivin and Neidell 2014). Park et al. (2021) use data for 58 countries and 12,000 US school districts with detailed weather and academic calendar information to show that the rate of learning decreases with an increase in the number of hot school days. These negative effects are further compounded in poorer countries and can be up to three times higher for students from low-income groups. Zivin et al. (2018) in their study further show that even though the negative effect of long-term temperature changes may be reduced due to compensatory behavior, short-run changes can lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance (also see Zivin et al. 2020). A similar study by Cook (2021) using the difference-in-difference methodology to assess the impact of flooding on education outcomes and cognitive performance among school children in Canada finds that exposure to floods can reduce performance by up to 7 percent of a standard 4 deviation. However, the effects are less pronounced for students living in high-rise apartment buildings and newer construction areas that are less prone to flooding, thus suggesting that adaptive measures can play a role in reducing the impact of climate change on human development outcomes. Similarly, research on health outcomes also indicates that negative environmental conditions can create long-term negative impact on health indicators of citizens. Researching the link between temperature inversion events and air pollution in Sweden, Jans et al. (2018) show that such events can increase air pollution (PM10 levels) by 25 percent and children’s respiratory health problems by 5.5 percent with low-income children being the worse affected. Arceo et al. (2016) have previously shown that the effect of air pollution on infant mortality can be higher in developing countries as compared to developed countries. Studying the impact of increasing oceanic acidity on early-childhood mortality and development, Armand and Taveras (2020) have gathered data on more than 1.5 million births taking place over the last 50 years in 36 developing countries. The study finds that in coastal areas, a 0.01 unit increase in acidity can lead to 2 additional neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births. Ebi and Hess (2020) further suggest that increased exposure to climate hazards has increased risks of deaths and injuries from extreme events, infectious diseases, and food and water insecurity in Europe. They propose simultaneous government policies and investments in social and health protections aimed at reducing inequities and investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation to reduce these health risks. 2.1. Adaptation and Mitigation Measures to Reduce the Impact of Climate Change As highlighted above, human development outcomes are frequently affected by environmental conditions while interventions targeting human development can in turn affect environmental outcomes. Numerous studies have advanced the role that human development interventions can play in adapting to and mitigating climate change. Bangay and Blum (2010) argue that a robust education system can equip and empower people to deal with climate uncertainties. They also present a generalized sequential framework to identify education responses ranging from provision of adequate educational infrastructure in the short term (adaptation) to equipping learners with the requisite skills, knowledge, and attributes to deal with future challenges in the long term. Adaptation measures can include a variety of interventions that improve resilience or direct human behavior towards adaptation strategies. Instances of such short-term interventions include disaster- proofing infrastructure, adapting to seasonality changes, and building disaster preparedness capacity to respond to climate emergencies. According to the World Bank’s World Development Report (2010), tackling climate change will require the expansion of some measures such as insurance and social protection as well as innovation in the implementation of others such as urban and infrastructure planning. DFID’s report on Education, Climate and Environment (Blum 2015) further emphasizes the role that education and educational infrastructure can play in building the resilience of communities (particularly poor and vulnerable population groups) to climate and environmental change, and the potential opportunities provided by low carbon technology and environmentally sensitive construction and design in that process. 5 Other adaptation measures include introducing innovative policies that can change human behaviors through nudges and increasing awareness. Li (2020), for example, highlights the role that job flexibility can play in shaping people’s adaptation to extreme weather. The study finds that when their residential areas are affected by extreme weather, workers with the flexibility to work at home reduced work time at their workplace by as much as 45 minutes on average, primarily because they wanted to avoid exposure to adverse climate during travel. Without this flexibility, workers made no changes to their work