石油2023—分析和预测至2028（英文版）--IEA.pdf

Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t Astrid Dumond, Oliver Joy, Jethro Mullen, Therese Walsh and Isabelle Nonain-Semelin. Diane Munro edited the report. Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE | 5 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Table of contents Executive summary 8 Demand 11 Global summary 11 Fundamentals . 14 Energy transition gathers pace . 17 Petrochemicals power ahead, China takes centre stage . 26 Aviation and marine demand growth resumes . 30 Demand developments by region . 33 Supply 42 Global summary 42 Investment and exploration . 47 OPEC+ supply. 51 Non-OPEC+ supply . 65 Refining . 80 Global summary 80 Refining capacity . 82 Refining industry adapts to demand changes 86 Regional developments 90 Global oil trade . 100 Global summary 100 Crude oil balances and trade 102 Product balances and trade 107 Tables 112 Abbreviations and acronyms 124 Units of measure . 125 List of figures Annual oil demand growth, 2022-2028 . 11 Global cumulative oil demand growth by fuel, 2022-2028 12 Impact of alternative oil price forecast scenarios, 2023-2028 . 17 Cumulative transport fuels demand growth, 2022-2028 . 18 New EVs and improved efficiency will avoid 7.8 mb/d of extra oil demand, 2022-2028 . 19 Global annual EV sales by country/region, 2010-2028 . 20 Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE | 6 I E A . 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Oil use in power generation by region, 2022-2028 . 22 OECD and non-OECD mobility indexes, March 2020 to October 2023 24 Estimated teleworking impact on oil demand, 2019-2028. 25 World oil demand and petrochemical sector contribution . 27 Annual olefins oil-based capacity change, (primary output), 2019-2028 28 Annual change in oil-based olefins feedstock use by region and by product, 2019-2028 29 Global air traffic, 2019-2023 (weekly) 30 International marine bunker demand – impact of efficiency gains, 2022-2028 . 32 Global cumulative oil demand growth by region, 2022-2028 33 North America cumulative oil demand growth by product, 2022-2028 . 34 Gasoline versus diesel in European ICE car fleet, 2006-2028 . 35 Europe cumulative oil demand growth by product, 2022-2028 . 36 China cumulative oil demand growth by product, 2022-2028 . 37 India cumulative oil demand growth by product, 2022-2028 . 39 Global oil supply capacity and demand forecast, year-on-year change, 2022-2028 42 OPEC+ spare crude oil production capacity . 43 Oil supply changes for select countries from 2022-2028 46 Middle East regains market share over the medium term. 47 Global oil and gas upstream capital spending 48 Oil and gas capital spending by selected companies . 48 Conventional production additions by sanction year . 49 Conventional discoveries have slowed markedly over the last decade 50 OPEC crude oil production capacity change 2023-2028 52 Saudi Arabia estimated crude oil production and capacity . 53 Iraq, UAE help drive OPEC+ supply gains 54 Kuwait estimated crude oil production and capacity, 2018-2028 56 Iran crude oil production, 1986-2028. 57 Russia estimated total oil supply, 2021-2028 59 OPEC+ Africa crude oil production capacity (y-o-y change) . 61 Libya estimated crude oil production and capacity . 63 Mexico total production and contribution by new fields . 64 US growth expectations moderated by shifting investment strategies 66 Productivity increases have plateaued or reversed in key LTO basins 67 Canadian oil supply by product, 2018-2028 70 Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin takeaway capacity . 71 Búzios and Mero drive Brazilian growth through the decade 72 Guyana growth driven by recent discoveries in the Stabroek block . 73 Investments in Norway delay but do not offset North Sea decline 75 Asian oil supply by country, 2018-2028 77 Africa oil production by country, 2018-2028 79 Slowing demand growth raises risk of further refining industry closures 80 Refined product demand growth curtailed by competing sources of supply . 81 Asia dominates 2022-2028 capacity expansions as Atlantic Basin closures diminish . 82 After the first fall in 30 years in 2021, refining capacity growth rebounds . 83 Net product exporters dominate refining capacity building, 2022-2028 (mb/d). 84 Firm and proposed refinery capacity additions . 85 Regional and country refinery throughputs, 2012-2028 86 Change in global refining yields, 2022-2028 . 88 Record refining margins posted in 2022, especially for US Gulf Coast 89 China refining capacity overtook United States in 2022, throughputs in 2025 . 90 Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE | 7 I E A . 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Mexican refinery capacity, throughput, crude production and exports 91 OECD Europe refinery capacity, throughput, crude imports and product exports 92 European refinery throughputs and free emission allocations, 2013-2022 . 93 North, West and South and East African refinery crude throughput and net crude exports . 94 China refinery capacity, throughput, net crude imports, and net product exports 96 India refinery capacity and crude runs, net crude import and products exports . 98 Russian oil exports, January 2022-May 2023 . 100 World crude and condensate balances by region, 2019-2028 101 Shares in uptake of global volumes from net crude exporting regions . 102 Crude oil balances by region, 2012-2028 . 103 Change versus 2022 for crude surplus in Atlantic Basin by region . 105 Change versus 2022 for crude surplus East of Suez by region 106 World gasoline and naphtha balances, 2022 - 2028 . 109 World middle distillate balances (diesel, gasoil, jet fuel and kerosene), 2022-2028 . 110 World fuel oil balance, 2022-2028 . 111 List of boxes How green is the growth? 44 Shale growth at risk from lower prices, higher costs . 68 Biofuels to provide 10% of new liquid fuel supply growth to 2028 73 Chinese policy key to balancing global fuel markets. 97 List of tables Global oil demand by product (mb/d), 2019-2028 . 13 Global oil demand by region (mb/d), 2019-2028 . 14 Real GDP growth assumptions . 15 Oil demand by product (mb/d): North America, 2019-2028 34 Oil demand by product (mb/d): Europe, 2019-2028 35 Oil demand by product (mb/d): Asia Pacific, 2019-2028 . 36 Oil demand by product (mb/d): China, 2019-2028 37 Oil demand by product (mb/d): India, 2019-2028 38 Oil demand by product (mb/d): Central and South America, 2019-2028 39 Oil demand by product (mb/d): Africa, 2019-2028 40 Oil demand by product (mb/d): Middle East, 2019-2028 . 40 Oil demand by product (mb/d): Eurasia, 2019-2028 . 41 OPEC crude oil production capacity (mb/d) 58 Total Non-OPEC+ supply (mb/d) 65 Regional refinery capacity and utilisation 2022-2028 83 Oil demand and call on refined products (mb/d), 2022-2028 87 Middle East refinery capacity expansions (kb/d), 2022-2028 . 95 Oil 2023 Executive summary PAGE | 8 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. Executive summary World oil markets reset Global oil markets are gradually recalibrating after three turbulent years in which they were upended first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the Russian Federation’s (hereafter “Russia”) invasion of Ukraine. Benchmark crude oil prices are back below pre-war levels and refined product cracks have now come off all- time highs after rising supplies coincided with a marked slowdown in oil demand growth in advanced economies. Moreover, an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows and two consecutive emergency stock releases by IEA member countries in 2022 allowed industry inventories to rebuild, easing market tensions. While the market could significantly tighten in the coming months as OPEC+ production cuts temper the upswing in global oil supplies, the outlook improves over our 2022-28 forecast period. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a surge in oil prices and brought security of supply concerns to the fore, helping accelerate deployment of clean energy technologies. At the same time, upstream investments in 2023 are expected to reach to their highest levels since 2015. Our projections assume major oil producers maintain their plans to build up capacity even as demand growth slows. A resulting spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d, concentrated in the Middle East, should ensure that world oil markets are adequately supplied throughout our forecast period. As always, there are a number of risks to our forecasts that could affect market balances over the medium term. Uncertain global economic conditions, the direction of OPEC+ decisions and Beijing’s refining industry policy will play a crucial role in the balancing of crude oil and product markets. Energy crisis accelerates transition away from oil Based on existing policy settings, growth in world oil demand is set to slow markedly during the 2022-28 forecast period as the energy transition advances. While a peak in oil demand is on the horizon, continued increases in petrochemical feedstock and air travel means that overall consumption continues to grow throughout the forecast. We estimate that global oil demand reaches 105.7 mb/d in 2028, up 5.9 mb/d compared with 2022 levels. Crucially, however, demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels – which excludes biofuels, petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses - is on course to peak at 81.6 mb/d in 2028, the final year of our forecast. Growth is set to reverse Oil 2023 Executive summary PAGE | 9 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. after 2023 for gasoline and after 2026 for transport fuels overall. These trends are the result of a pivot towards lower-emission sources triggered by the global energy crisis, as well as policy emphasis on energy efficiency improvements and the rapid growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales. The People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) was the last major economy to lift its stringent Covid-19 restrictions at the end of 2022, leading to a post- pandemic oil demand rebound in the first half of 2023. But demand growth in China slows markedly from 2024 onwards, and global oil demand growth shrivels from 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to just 400 kb/d by 2028. Nevertheless, burgeoning petrochemical demand and strong consumption growth in emerging economies will more than offset a contraction in advanced economies. For total oil demand to decline sooner, in line with the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario), additional policy measures and behavioural changes would be required. The petrochemical sector will remain the key driver of global oil demand growth, with liquified petroleum gas (LPG), ethane and naphtha accounting for more than 50% of the rise between 2022 and 2028 and nearly 90% of the increase compared with pre-pandemic levels. The aviation sector will expand strongly as airline travel returns to normal following the reopening of borders. At the start of 2023, jet fuel demand was still lagging 2019 levels by more than 1 mb/d, or 13%. It quickly accelerates and contributes the highest growth across all products over the forecast period, increasing by a substantial 2 mb/d. However, efficiency improvements and behavioural changes will slow the pace of growth so consumption will only surpass 2019 levels by 2027. Non-OPEC+ producers lead oil supply capacity growth Global upstream oil and gas investment is on track to increase by an estimated 11% in 2023 to USD 528 billion, compared with USD 474 billion in 2022. While the impact of higher spending will be partly offset by cost inflation, this level of investment, if sustained, would be adequate to meet forecast demand in the period covered by the report. Based on the current pipeline of projects underway and US light tight oil (LTO) growth expectations, we see 5.9 mb/d of net additional production capacity brought online by 2028. Despite easing from 1.9 mb/d on average over 2022-23 to just 300 kb/d by 2028, new capacity building still moves in line with projected demand growth over the forecast period. Oil producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance (non-OPEC+) dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans, with a 5.1 mb/d supply boost led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq lead the capacity building within OPEC+, while African and Asian Oil 2023 Executive summary PAGE | 10 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0. members struggle with continuing declines, and Russian production falls due to sanctions. This makes for a net capacity gain of 800 kb/d from the 23 members in OPEC+ overall. The relatively strong increases from non-OPEC+ producers, together with the projected slowdown in demand growth, tempers the requirement for OPEC+ crude. As a result, estimated effective spare capacity of at least 3.8 mb/d is maintained throughout the forecast period. Refinery activity and trade upended A third wave of refinery capacity closures, conversions to biofuel plants and project delays since the pandemic reduced the overhang in global refinery capacity. This, combined with a sharp drop in Chinese oil product exports and an upheaval of Russian trade flows, resulted in record profits for the industry last year. While net refinery capacity additions of 4.4 mb/d expected by 2028 outpace demand growth for refined products, contrasting trends among products means that a repeat of the 2022 tightness in middle distillates cannot be ruled out. Refiners may need to shift their product yields towards middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks to reflect changing demand patterns. Demand for petroleum-based premium road transport fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, is 1 mb/d below 2019 levels at the end of the forecast period. At the same time, robust petrochemical activity and slower growth in natural gas liquids (NGLs) supply raises demand for refinery-supplied LPG and naphtha. Chinese production policy will be pivotal for global markets. Close alignment with petrochemical plant feedstock needs could leave middle distillate markets very tight by 2028. While East of Suez continues to propel growth in capacity additions and refinery runs, the Atlantic Basin could see throughputs decline despite substantial new plants starting up in Nigeria, Mexico and Brazil. However, most of the increase in global crude and condensate production will come from the Atlantic Basin. The Western Hemisphere, and especially the Americas, will be the largest incremental supplier of oil to global markets, with exports up by 4.1 mb/d by 2028. This shift in trade flows comes in addition to most of the 2.5 mb/d of Russian crude oil backed out of Europe and G7 countries due to embargoes flowing eastward. The absence