菲律宾能源市场报告（更新）（英文版）.pdf

2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Energy Sector Updates Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 2023 VISAYAS ENERGY INVESTMENT FORUM bai Hotel Cebu, Mandaue City April 27, 2023 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Presentation Outline Where are we now? Where are we headed? How do we get there? Energy Investment Opportunities 1 2 3 4 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Where are we now? 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy 50.9 MTOE 2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY 43.2% (22.0MTOE) INDIGENOUS 56.8% (28.9MTOE) NET IMPORTED Total Primary Energy Supply 2021 Natural Gas 5.5% Hydro 4.5% Geothermal* 1.8% Other RE 16.5% Coal 37.1% 4 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy 35.1 MTOE* By FuelBy Sector Total Final Energy Consumption 2021 5 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy COAL RENEWABLE ENERGY OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS 43% 11,669 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY 58% 62,052 GWh POWER GENERATION 29% 7,914 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY 22% 23,771 GWh POWER GENERATION 14% 3,847 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY 2% 1,616 GWh POWER GENERATION 13% 3,453 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY 18% 18,675 GWh POWER GENERATION LUZON: 11,640 MW VISAYAS: 2,252 MW MINDANAO: 2,144 MW 46% 10,913 MW DEPENDABLE CAPACITY 29% 7,005 MW DEPENDABLE CAPACITY 11% 2,650 MW DEPENDABLE CAPACITY 14% 3,286 MW DEPENDABLE CAPACITY 106,114GWh Indigenous: 45.1% Imported: 54.9% RE Share: 22% Fossil Share: 78% 16,036 MW 2021 PEAK DEMAND On-Grid Power Capacity and Generation Mix 2021 6 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Off-Grid Supply and Demand Profile, 2020 Peak Demand AAGR Luzon 234.49 MW 6.85% Visayas 24.81 MW 9.42% Mindanao 41.38 MW 5.40% Total Peak Demand 300.68 MW Missionary Areas NPC-SPUG NPPs and DU-Owned Generators Total Dependable Capacity (MW) Number of Power Plants NPPs and DU-Owned Generators (MW) Number of Power Plants Dependabl e Capacity (MW) Number of Power Plants Luzon 101.15 MW 202 296.49 MW 19 397.64 MW 221 Visayas 21.76 MW 49 18.89 MW 2 40.65 MW 51 Mindanao 54.35 MW 26 6.55 MW 2 60.90 MW 28 Total 177.26 MW 277 321.93 MW 23 499.19 MW 300 7 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Upstream Energy Development Projects, 2022 17 PETROLEUM SERVICE CONTRACTS(11 Exploration Phase; 6 Production Phase*) 2022 PR OD UC TION 16.06MMT Production 36.14MMT Consumption 32.67MMT Imports 7.12MMT Exports 29 COAL OPERATING CONTRACTS(20 Development/Production; 9 Exploration) 558.27MB Oil 112.172BCF Gas 2.71MMB Condensate 8 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Private Sector Initiated Projects Source: DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of 31 October 2022 COAL OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE ENERGY 1,520.00 MW (2.97%) 335.00 MW (0.66%) 6,580.00 MW (12.86%) 42,723.53 MW (83.51%) Indicative Projects TOTAL 51,158.73 MW (100%) 3,685.40 MW (35.93%) 41.75 MW (0.41%) 3,500.00 MW (34.13%) 3,028.90 MW (29.53%) Committed Projects 10,256.05 MW (100%) 9 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy 10 Existing Downstream Oil Facilities DOI Player Participants *No. of Facility Storage Working Capacity (MB) Refinery 1 9,609 Import Terminal (LPP and 50% by 2040 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 5% energy savings on oil products and electricity by 2040 Information and Communications Technology Adopting advanced and interoperable ICT in the energy chain Emerging and Innovative Technologies 10% EV penetration rate in road transport by 2040; Exploring new and efficient technologies Energy Resiliency Resilient and climate-proof energy infrastructure 18 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Power Generation Mix, 2040 COAL OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE ENERGY 80,827 GWh (23.1%) 515 GWh (0.1%) 93,240 GWh (26.6%) 175,492 GWh (50.1%) CLEAN ENERGY SCENARIO TOTAL 350 TWh (100%) 89,717 GWh (24.6%) 276 GWh (0.1%) 146,858 GWh (40.3%) 111,361 GWh (34.9%) REFERENCE SCENARIO 364.4 TWh (100%) 19 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy How do we get there? 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Market-Driven Policies RA No. 9136 of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 Promote the utilization of indigenous, and new and RE resources in power generation to reduce dependence on imported energy RA No. 9513 or the Renewable Act of 2008 Accelerate the exploration, development, utilization, and commercialization of RE RA No. 11234 or the Energy Virtual One Stop Shop Act of 2019 Online platform to streamline the processing of energy application 21 RA No. 11697 or the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act of 2022 Establish the Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry to accelerate the development, commercialization and utilization of EVs Republic Act (RA) No. 7638 or the Department of Energy Act of 1992 Develop and update Philippine energy programs which shall provide for integrated and comprehensive exploration, development, utilization, distribution and conservation of energy resources, with preferential bias for environment-friendly, indigenous, and low-cost sources of energy RA No. 11952 or the LPG Industry Regulation Act Establish regulatory framework for the LPG industry RA 11285 or the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act Institutionalize energy efficiency and conservation as a national way of life and promote/encourage the development and utilization of efficient renewable energy technologies RA No. 11646 or the Microgrid Systems Act Fill the gap in the country s goal of achieving 100 percent electrification by encouraging the installation of microgrids in unserved and underserved areas 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Comprehensive Energy Plans and Programs Philippine Energy Plan, 2020-2040 Transformational plan to bring in more clean energy fuels and technologies 22 Proposed National Renewable Energy Program (NREP), 2020- 2040 Embodies the country’s long-term RE targets and policy and program mechanisms to achieve the targets Power Development Plan (PDP), 2020-2040 Adopted the national RE power generation mix targets in line with the commitment towards a cleaner energy transition Distribution Development Plan (DDP), 2021-2030 Annual program of DUs for managing the distribution system to ensure the continuity, reliability and affordability of electricity service to the consumers Missionary Electrification Development Plan (MEDP), 2021-2025 Developed to ensure quality, reliable, secure, and affordable electricity services, especially in the far- flung areas in the Philippines Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry (CREVI) National Development Plan for the EV industry to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of EVs in the Philippines Investment Opportunities 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Power Supply and Demand Outlook, 2025-2040 The Philippines need a total of 21,235 MW additional RE capacity to attain the 35% share of RE in the power generation mix by 2030 and 73,183 MW additional capacity to attain the 50% share by 2040. 24 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Philippine Sedimentary Basins 1. Ilocos Shelf 2. Cagayan Basin 3. Central Luzon Basin 4. Bicol Shelf 5. Southeast Luzon Basin 6. Mindoro-Cuyo Basin 7. West Masbate-Iloilo Basin 8. Visayan Basin 9. Agusan-Davao Basin 10. Cotabato Basin 11. Sulu Sea Basin 12. East Palawan Basin 13. Southwest Palawan Basin 14. Reed Bank Basin 15. Northwest Palawan Basin 16. West Luzon Trough Total area: 709,000 sq km Combined Potential: 8,895 MMBFOE *source: PHILPRA (2002) for update of DOE 25 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Petroleum Service Contracts (PSC) for Possible Joint Venture / Farm-in Agreements SERVICE CONTRACT (SC) NO. LOCATION (Sedimentary Basin) AREA (hectares) OPERATOR PHASE/ REMARKS 1 SC-6B NW Palawan 53,293.95 The Philodrill Corporation Production 2 SC-14C1 NW Palawan 16,300.95 NPG Pty. Ltd. Production SC-14C2 NW Palawan 17,649.54 The Philodrill Corp. Production 3 SC-37 Cagayan 36,000 PNOC Exploration Corp. Production 4 SC-38 NW Palawan 86,000 Prime Energy Resources Development B. V. Production 5 SC-40 Visayan 340,000 Forum Exploration, Inc. Production 6 SC-49 Visayan 42,749 China Int l Mining Petroleum Co. Ltd. Production 7 SC-53 Mindoro-Cuyo Platform 724,000 The Philodrill Corp. Exploration 8 SC-54 NW Palawan 43,515 Nido Petroleum Philippines Pty. Ltd. Exploration SERVICE CONTRACT (SC) NO. LOCATION (Sedimentary Basin) AREA (hectares) OPERATOR PHASE/ REMARKS 9 SC-55 SW Palawan 988,000 Palawan55 Exploration & Production Corp. Exploration 10 SC-57 NW Palawan 712,000 PNOC Exploration Corp. Exploration 11 SC-58 NW Palawan 1,344,000 Nido Petroleum Philippines Pty. Ltd. Exploration 12 SC-59 SW Palawan 1,476,000 PNOC Exploration Corp. Exploration 13 SC-72 Recto Bank 880,000 Forum (GSEC 101) Ltd. Exploration 14 SC-74 NW Palawan 426,800 PXP Energy Corp. Exploration 15 SC-75 NW Palawan 616,000 PXP Energy Corp. Exploration 16 SC-76 East Palawan 648,000 Ratio Petroleum Ltd. Exploration 17 SC-77 Cotabato Basin 72,000 SK Liguasan Oil and Gas Corp. Exploration 26 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Regional Coal Reserves 27 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Off-Shore Wind Potentials 178 GW of OSW Potential (18 GW Fixed and 160 GW Floating) • Six (6) potential OSW development zones identified: o Environmental and social restrictions and exclusions. o Levelized cost of energy (wind speed is critical – consider measurement campaign). o Transmission and port infrastructure and demand centers. • Needed to complete proportionate Marine Spatial Planning and publish final map by end 2023. Potential Development Zone Type Practical Capacity A: Northwest Luzon Floating 2 to 5 GW B: Manila area Fixed and floating 0 to 3 GW C: Northern Mindoro Floating 3 to 10 GW D: Southern Mindoro Floating 20 to 36 GW E: Guimaras Strait Fixed 0 to 1 GW F: Negros / Panay area Floating 2 to 3 GW 28 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) Potential ▪ DOE initiated the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) Project in 2018 ▪ Identified 25 Strategic Areas with high concentration of solar and wind resources throughout the country ▪ 58,110 MW Solar PV and 93,987 MW Wind potential capacities ▪ Other CREZ Potentials Geothermal (MW) Hydropower (MW) Biomass (MW) Luzon 285.00 270,603.00 210.00 Visayas 40.00 1,917.00 71.00 Mindanao 40.00 382,514.00 93.00 Philippines 365.00 655,034.00 374.00 29 2023 Investment ForumVisayas Energy Opportunities Under CREVI Electric Vehicles and Charging Stations To achieve complete electrification of all new vehicles by 2040 with the Government as an early adopter Public Transportation Players / Market Private Sector Households Government Business Opportunities EVs and EV Charging Stations Research and Development Manufacturing Human Resource Development 30