2022年第四季度欧洲天然气市场报告（英文版）-欧盟委员会.pdf

Quarterly report On European gas markets With focus on price developments in 2022 Market Observatory for Energy DG Energy Volume 15 (issue 4, covering fourth quarter of 2022) Energy 1 DISCLAIMER: This report prepared by the Market Observatory for Energy of the European Commission aims at enhancing public access to information about prices of gas in the Members States of the European Union. Our goal is to keep this information timely and accurate. If errors are brought to our attention, we will try to correct them. However, the Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the information contained in this publication. Copyright notice: Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. © European Commission, 2023 Directorate-General for Energy, Unit A.4, Chief Economist - Market Observatory for Energy, 2023 Commission européenne, B-1049 Bruxelles / Europese Commissie, B-1049 Brussel – Belgium E-mail: ENER-MARKET-OBSERVATORY-QUARTERLY-REPORTS@ec.europa.eu 2 CONTENT CONTENT . 2 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE REPORT 3 1. Gas market fundamentals 4 1.1 Consumption 4 1.2 Production 6 1.3 Imports 7 1.3.1. Pipeline imports from Russia 11 1.3.2. LNG imports 13 1.4 Policy developments and gas infrastructure . 16 1.5 Storage 16 2. Wholesale gas markets . 21 2.1 EU energy commodity markets . 21 2.2 LNG and international gas markets. 22 2.3 European gas markets . 25 2.3.2 Wholesale price developments in the EU . 25 2.3.4. Gas trade on the EU hubs 29 3. Retail gas markets in the EU and outside Europe . 31 3.1 Recent developments on EU retail gas markets . 31 4. Appendix – charts providing further details on market developments . 33 3 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE REPORT  At the end of October and early November the TTF spot price temporarily fell to 30 €/MWh, as a number of LNG cargoes could not be unloaded at north-west European hubs, owing to high storage fullness and gas grid congestion in the region. It rebounded, peaked at approx. 150 €/MWh in early December and then considerably decreased, dropping to approx. 70 €/MWh at the end of December, and continued on a downward trend until mid May 2023.  Throughout 2022 the European Commission and Member States put together a comprehensive set of initiatives to fight the energy crisis. This effort continued in the last quarter of 2022 with the adoption of several additional measures, including enhancing solidarity through better coordination of gas purchases, developing reliable price benchmarks for increased price transparency, establishing a market correction mechanism to address episodes of excessively high prices, creating a framework to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, thereby speeding up substitution of gas in electricity production and heating. This framework has been supportive of the efforts to diversify supply. The expansion of regasification capacity, reduction of demand and storage filled ahead of the winter season all resulted in a tangible improvement of the market situation in the fourth quarter of 2022 (and even more evidently, in the first quarter of 2023).  After the cut of Nord Stream supply occurred in the third quarter, Russian pipeline gas imports stabilised around 3 to 4 bcm per month, down from 11-12 bcm per month in Q4 2021. Russian pipeline gas imports were down to approx. 15% in Q4 2022, more than 25 percentage points less than the same quarter in 2021. Russian pipeline gas has been replaced mostly by LNG import (+13 bcm, +70% year on year) as well as additional pipeline imports mainly from Norway and the UK.  The price premium compared to the Asian markets that materialised in summer 2022 has progressively decreased in Q4 and fallen to approx. 10 €/MWh in late December, after reaching levels above 100 €/MWh at the peak of the crisis in August. Abundance of LNG in south-western Europe and the ease of grid congestion in north-western Europe resulted in a move towards a ‘normalisation’ of the discount in LNG import prices to the TTF and other continental benchmarks. In Q4 2022, the United States was the largest LNG supplier to the EU, ensuring 13.2 bcm (36% of the total EU LNG imports). In Q4 2022, the EU remained the biggest LNG importer in the world, ahead of Japan and China.  Average filling rates in Europe in the fourth quarter stood at 91%, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Storage injections were still strong. Faster storage replenishment was facilitated by significantly higher LNG inflows in the fourth quarter, surpassing by 13% an already record high import in the third quarter and aided by additional pipeline supply partially offsetting the rapidly falling pipeline gas imports from Russia, combined with significantly lower gas consumption. The peak was reached on 13 November (95.6%), almost a month later than usual, owing to mild weather and the delayed start of the heating season.  EU gas consumption in Q4 2022 fell by 21%, (-25 bcm) year-on-year, amounting to 95.4 bcm. Gas use in power generation remained strong (133 TWh) and increased slightly, by 1.7%.  Gas traded volumes on the European hubs fell by 25% in Q4 2022 year-on-year, following the downward trend already observed in previous quarters. The share of exchange-executed contracts increased slightly compared to Q3 2022 (67% vs 63%) but it was in line with the share in Q4 2021.  Retail gas prices for household customers in many EU capital cities significantly decreased throughout the 4Q 2022 for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. That said, retail prices still rose in other capitals and the average rose in the fourth quarter at significantly lower rate (3%) than the previous quarter (when it rose 23%). The year-on-year increase was 71%, while it was 108% in Q3. The share of energy component in the price continued to increase and reached 69% in Q4, while it was 53% a year earlier, as Member States still kept reduced taxes and levies. [Methodological note: the energy crisis has evidenced the importance of collecting information on energy markets accurately and timely. This is fundamental to inform the policy making process and address effectively issues arising in the markets. Against this background, the Commission is currently carrying out a comprehensive and systematic review of all the data sources related to gas markets. The scope of the review is to ensure a more harmonised and consistent treatment of different data sources. In the next quarterly report, once the review has been completed, the Commission will present the 2022 aggregated figures for all the key indicators.] 4 1. Gas market fundamentals 1.1 Consumption  EU gas consumption 1 in the fourth quarter of 2022 fell drastically further, by 21,4% (-25 bcm) in year-on-year comparison, after decreasing by 7,9 % in Q3 2022 and by 16.5% in Q2 2022. In absolute numbers, the quarterly gas consumption in Q4 2022 amounted to an estimated 95,4 bcm, down from 121,4 bcm in Q4 2021, but up from the consumption of the previous summer- quarter, Q3 2022 (59,5 bcm), a seasonally low heating season. Gas use in power generation remained strong (133,49 TWh) and increased slightly, by 1.7% (+2.18 TWh) from an already strong Q3 (131,31 TWh) and following historical trends in gas consumption during winter months. Figure 1 - EU gas consumption Source: Eurostat, 2022 from data series nrg_103m. In the next edition of this report numbers might change retrospectively. Figure 2 - Year-on-year change in EU gas consumption in each quarter (%) Source: Eurostat, 2022 from data series nrg_103m. In the next edition of this report numbers might change retrospectively 1 EU aggregates, unless otherwise indicated, refer to EU-27, and in order to ensure comparability over time, values of earlier periods and year-on- year comparison indices also refer to EU aggregates without the United Kingdom. Therefore, in comparison to earlier editions, total EU aggregate numbers might differ in the current report. 0 75 150 225 300 375 450 525 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TWh bcm 2016-2020 range 2021 2022 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 2022 %5  In the fourth quarter of 2022, in all EU Member States but Malta (+25%, +0.02 bcm) 2 gas consumption fell. In the order of percentage changes, gas consumption fell by the most in Finland (-53.7%, -0.24 bcm), Sweden (-43,2%, -0.19 bcm), Estonia (- 39.7%, -0.09 bcm), Greece (34.1%, 1.06 bcm and Hungary (-29,6%, -2,64 bcm). In absolut terms, the biggest consumption reduction was registered in Germany (-6.45 bcm, 22.6%), Italy (-5.72 bcm, 25%), France (-2,43 bcm, 18,4%), Spain (-2.12 bcm, 22.1%) and the Netherlands (-2.02 bcm, 18.3%). In Q4 2022, Germany consumed the highest amount of gas (22.08 bcm), followed by Italy (17.19 bcm), France (10.76 bcm), the Netherlands (8.99 bcm), and Spain (7.46 bcm). Figure 3 - Year-on-year change in gas consumption in the fourth quarter of 2022 Source: Eurostat, 2022 from data series nrg_103m. In the next edition of this report numbers might change retrospectively  Year-on-year gas-fired generation fell by 11% in Q4 2022 due to the high prices. However, after supporting gas-to-coal switch for most of 2022, the reduction of gas prices in October and at the end of Q4 2022, has closed the gap between coal- and gas-fired generation. The further decline in gas prices, combined with high carbon prices in Q1 2023, has supported gas-fired generation vis- à-vis coal-fired power plants. As a result gas-fired power generation rose by 2% (+2 TWh) compared to Q3 2022. 2 There is no data for Cyprus. -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 DE IT FR NL ES PL BE RO HU AT CZ SK IE PT GR HR DK BG LT LV FI SI SE LU MT EE CY EU-27 bcm Gas consumption Year-on-year change in consumption (rhs)6 Figure 4 - Gas-fired power generation in the EU Source: Based on data from the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform and national data sources, 2022. 1.2 Production  Despite sensible efforts in Member States to tap on their domestic resources, production has risen only slightly compared to the previous quarter (+ 3.6%). In the fourth quarter of 2022, EU natural gas production reached 10.5 bcm, falling year-on-year again, by 4%, (by 0.5 bcm), following a constant trend of decline in all previous years back to 2016 and beyond. In all three months of Q4, the actual quarterly production remained well below both the five-year range of 2016-2020 and 2021 figures. Figure 5 – Gas production in the EU Source: Eurostat, data as of 15 March 2023 from data series nrg_103m. In the next edition of this report numbers might change retrospectively. 7  In the biggest gas producer Netherlands, the production remained at 4.2 bcm in the fourth quarter, the same amount as in the third quarter, but it felt significantly, by 12% (-0.6 bcm) year-on-year. In Romania, the second biggest gas producer in the EU, production stabilised at 0.8 bcm per month (2.4 bcm in Q4 overall), a slight increase of 3.7% from the third quarter. In Poland, the third largest domestic producer, production stabilised at 0.5 bcm and reached a total of 1.5 bcm, 13% higher than in the previous quarter (1.3 bcm). Germany slipped to the forth place with a monthly production of 0.4 bcm that remained constant throught 2022 and 2021. Italy came fifth with 0.9 bcm, increasing its production by 18.2% from the previous quarter. A similar 18% increase has been achieved in Denmark from the previous quarter amounting to an overall 0.43 bcm. Hungary increased its domestic production by 3.6% adding 0.4 bcm gas in the three last months of the year, while Ireland slightly reduced its production by 3.7% with 0.34 bcm gas produced in the fourth quarter of 2022.  Even amid extreme high wholesale gas prices at the European hubs, domestic production in most of the European countries could not increase significantly, suggesting that there are technical and societal/environmental obstacles (e.g. depleted gas fields, significant resistance from the society for further gas production owing to damages in some countries, etc.) play more important role than economic profitability, which result in permanently dwindling production in the EU. Relatively long lead time to mobilise investment and develop economically viable and socially/environmentally acceptable projects in the densely populated European territory may also have contributed to the overall insignificant increase in domestic gas production. 1.3 Imports 3  According to Eurostat 4 , net gas imports in the EU decreased by 15,4% (14.8 bcm) in the fourth quarter of 2022 (year-on-year), amid decreasing gas consumption and further dwindling domestic production, which also facilitated the replenishment of storages. Net gas import also shrank from the third quarter by 4.5% (3.8 bcm) reflecting the effect of the gas demand reduction regulation 5 . Net imports in different EU countries showed a high variation in Q4 2022 in year-on-year comparison. In Denmark, in parallel with decreasing gas consumption, net imports fell to practically zero and in Latvia they fell by 52% (-0.4 bcm). In contrast, net gas import in Malta practically doubled (though increasing by a tiny 0.07 bcm), and in Hungary net imports rose by 58% (+1.1 bcm) year-on-year.  Looking at the biggest LNG importers, in the largest importer France net imports rose by 124% (from 4.5 bcm to 10 bcm), in the second largest importer Spain, they went up 8.4% (+0.6 bcm), while in the Netherlands, in third place, imports went up by 78% (2.2 bcm). Italy was the fourth largest importer in Q4 of 2022 increasing its LNG purchase by 118% (2 bcm), while in Belgium the increase was an astonishing 148% (2.5 bcm). Portugal, Greece and Poland also imported significant amounts (1.3 bcm, 1 bcm and 2 bcm), while Lithuania, Croatia, Finland, Sweden and Malta also added to the EU import. Overall, the total LNG import amounted to 36.7 bcm in the 4Q of 2022, a 13% increase from the 3Q 2022 (32.4 bcm) and 66% increase year-on-year (from 22 bcm in 4Q 2021).  According to ENTSO-G data, net imports amounted to 799 TWh in the fourth quarter down 3.8% from 837 TWh in the third quarter of 2022, of which 55% arrived through pipelines and around 45% through LNG terminals. For a first time since the beginning of ENTSO-G time series (January 2014) almost half of gas import arrived in the EU via LNG terminals. Pipeline gas imports from Russia saw a spectacularly steep fall of 85% year-on-year in Q4 2022, following an accelerating decline observable throughout the previous three quarters. Q2 was already characterised by 16.4% decline in Russian pipeline import compapred to Q1, and this decline accelerated to 59% in Q3 and to 88% in Q4 of 2022. Import from Russia almost halved from Q3 to Q4 reflecting the impacts of various pipelines distruption events from July to September, including the complete halt of gas import through Nord Stream 1 and 2.