欧洲光伏电站趋势（英）--AURRA.pdf

GoodWe 7 March 2023 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | GMT , London 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | CET, Berlin, Madrid, Paris 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | EET, Athens Utility-scale PV and string inverter market trends GoodWe David Sánchez Sales Director EMEA – Utility & Large Scale GoodWe Ryan Alexander Research lead Aurora Energy Research Alvaro Zanón Technical Director EMEA – Utility & Large Scale Peijun Shen Senior Manager Product Marketing LONGi Mark Hutchins Editor pv magazine Marjia Maisch Editor pv magazineGoodWe Utility-scale PV and string inverter market trends BayWa Alberto Campayo Head of Operations Prosolia Energy Felix Jetter Team Leader Power Plant Engineering Nitish Sinha Project Engineer and Inverter specialist Ecorus Mark Hutchins Editor pv magazine Marjia Maisch Editor pv magazine 7 March 2023 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | GMT , London 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | CET, Berlin, Madrid, Paris 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | EET, AthensDo you have any questions? ❓ 🙋🙋 Send them in via the Q&A tab. 👉👉 We aim to answer as many as we can today! You can also let us know of any tech problems there. We are recording this webinar today. 🎥🎥 We‘ll let you know by email where to find it and the slide deck, so you can re-watch it at your convenience. 👀👀 💡💡 Welcome!Utility-scale PV and string inverter market trends GoodWe Marjia Maisch Editor pv magazine Mark Hutchins Editor pv magazine Alvaro Zanón Technical Director EMEA – Utility & Large Scale GoodWe Welcome 7 March 2023 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | GMT , London 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | CET, Berlin, Madrid, Paris 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | EET, AthensMarket analysis and future trend of Europe PV industry GoodWe Marjia Maisch Editor pv magazine Mark Hutchins Editor pv magazine Ryan Alexander Research lead Aurora Energy Research 7 March 2023 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | GMT , London 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | CET, Berlin, Madrid, Paris 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | EET, Athens© Aurora Energy Research Ltd. CONFIDENTIAL Aurora_2021.1 Macro trends in European Solar PV investment March 20232 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL Agenda I. European policy environment for solar PV 1. RePowerEU targets and implications for build out rates 2. EU Solar Energy Strategy II. Revenue models for solar PV 1. Government support schemes 2. PPA supply/demand balance by market 3. Solar PV capture prices by market3 Aurora_2021.1 3 CONFIDENTIAL 40 0 20 60 80 10 30 50 70 90 2025 2015 2020 2030 +11 Target RES share of final energy consumption % ▪ targeted 1067GW RES capacity by 2030 including 480 GW of wind and 420 GW of solar ▪ The REPowerEU plan adds a further 169 GW, raising the target to 1236 GW by 2030 with a focus on solar PV, aiming for 320 GW by 2025 and almost 600 GW by 2030 ▪ 42 GW of solar would need to be deployed annually until 2025, rising to 53 GW from 2026 onwards while 32 GW of wind would need to be deployed annually to 2030 ▪ These represent a cumulative average of 80 GW required annually, 4x faster than average build rate over the last 10 years ▪ To support deployment of these capacities, the Commission also presents the EU solar strategy and European Solar Rooftop Initiative and plans to speed up permitting and innovation Sources: Aurora Energy Research, European Commission, Eurostat, WindEurope The Commission has proposed to increase the EU renewables target to 1236 GW of capacity by 2030, requiring 3x faster deployment 1) Shown for EU-27 only. 2) As at the end of 2021. 3) Other RES includes hydro and biomass. I. REPowerEU Plan Target installed RES capacities by 2030 1 GW 205 480 480 200 420 589 166 167 167 200 0 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 FF55 Current installed capacity 2 REPowerEU 571 1067 1236 +169 Wind and solar capacity commissioned per year 1 GW Wind Other RES 3 Solar 40% 45% +5 Average RES capacity additions in the 2010s: 19.6 GW/ year Average RES capacity additions 2019-21: 28.9 GW/ year Avg build rate (2019-2021) Avg build rate (2011-2019) Required solar deployment increases as targets ramp up 22% Achieved in 2020, surpassing the 20% target4 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL Sources: Aurora Energy Research, European Commission The EU Solar Energy Strategy outlines a comprehensive vision to rapidly deploy solar energy II. EU Solar Energy Strategy The EU Solar Energy Strategy outlines a comprehensive vision to swiftly reap the benefits of solar energy, and presents four initiatives to overcome key challenges faced. ▪ Aims at unlocking the vast, underutilised solar generation potential of rooftops which could electricity consumption ▪ Permitting for all rooftop solar installations will be limited to a maximum of 3 months ▪ Provisions will be made to ensure PV made compulsory for: i. All new public and commercial buildings by 2026 ii. All existing public and commercial buildings by 2027 iii. All new residential buildings by 2029 ▪ The Commission presents a Recommendation on permitting to hasten and simplify the procedures ▪ Ensure RES assets qualify for the best procedures available and are deemed of public interest & safety ▪ Establish clearly defined, fast and as short as possible deadlines for all the permitting steps ▪ Establish binding maximum deadlines for all relevant stages of the EIA procedure ▪ Create a single unified application process for the entire permitting and granting process ▪ Allow applicants to update the technology specifications through the process to facilitate the uptake of innovative technologies ▪ Aims at ensuring the availability of an abundant skilled workforce to face up the challenge of producing and deploying solar energy all across the EU ▪ Member States are encouraged to analyse the skills gap in the solar energy sector and develop training programmes fit for purpose, taking into account the potential to ▪ At EU level, as part of REPowerEU plan, the Commission will bring together the relevant stakeholders in the renewable energy sector, to set up an EU large-scale skills partnership for onshore renewable energy, including solar energy, under the Pact for Skills. ▪ Aims to secure diversity of supplies through more diverse imports and scaled up solar PV manufacturing in the EU of innovative and sustainable solar PVs to mitigate potential supply risks ▪ The alliance will include a research and innovation pillar with strong links to Horizon Europe and at EU level: InvestEU can provide de-risked financing to private investments Innovation Fund can channel funding towards innovative zero and low-carbon equipment Recovery and resilience and Cohesion policy funds to support relevant projects European Solar Rooftops Initiative Faster and simpler permitting procedures Availability of abundant skilled workforce European Solar PV Industry Alliance5 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL Agenda I. European policy environment for solar PV 1. RePowerEU targets and implications for build out rates 2. EU Solar Energy Strategy II. Revenue models for solar PV 1. Government support schemes 2. PPA supply/demand balance by market 3. Solar PV capture prices by market6 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL ▪ If CfDs were rolled out as the default renewable subsidy scheme for new assets, this would especially affect developers in markets where the current instrument allows for merchant upsides − For instance, in Germany and the Netherlands support schemes serves as downside protection, but allows developers benefitting from price peaks, which was historically meant to foster market integration of renewables − Yet, CfDs could help developers reduce commercial risks around covering their levelised costs, bringing down financing cost − Stronger reliance on CfDs could challenge the uptake of PPAs, as CfDs eliminate counterparty risk and could crowd out PPA supply ▪ Imposing CfDs on existing assets (those not covered by PPAs, e.g. post- subsidy assets) would be an even stronger challenge to merchant business models ▪ Credit guarantees could make the PPA market more navigable for developers, reducing offtaker risk and allowing them to access smaller offtaker segments ▪ Should the majority of (renewable) developers be covered by CfDs or PPAs, an additional revenue cap will not be necessary for these technologies Renewable support schemes: Some markets allow for merchant exposure Sources: Aurora Energy Research Impact of European Power Market reform discussion on merchant exposure 1) Except for offshore. In Denmark, an innovative two-sided CfD exists. 2) France allows up to 18 months merchant window before entering into two-sided CfD contract. Subsidy free One-sided scheme CfD with merchant exposure Germany: Market premium scheme allows for merchant upside Poland: Not all generation needs to be sold under CfD Nordics: Subsidies abolished for all markets besides Denmark NO/SWE/FIN are merchant market with PPAs 1 Spain: Adjustment mechanism allows RES to participate in higher market prices Government support schemes are still the biggest driver of solar build- out across most of Europe, with varying degrees of merchant exposure -offs the Commission is facing III Two-sided CfD 2 Feed-in-tariff Netherlands: SDE++ as downside protection, allowing to participate in high prices7 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL Source: Aurora Energy Research Rising PPA demand from utilities & corporates provides an opportunity for new build renewables to secure stable revenues 2025 2022 2030 +337% Electrolyser Utility Corporate New build renewables PPA demand in Europe 1 TWh New build renewables PPA demand in 2030* TWh GBR ESP FIN DEU FRA SWE NLD GRC ITA POL NOR BEL PRT HUN DNK IRX ROU BGR ▪ growth combined with assumptions around the share of each sector that will require a PPA and have the necessary creditworthiness ratings ▪ PPA demand is expected to quadruple over the next decade, driven by discerning green consumer base ▪ PPA demand in 2030 is concentrated in Northwest Europe, with the top four countries contributing over 50% of total demand ▪ In 2030, large markets such as France and Germany are still undersupplied, having higher demand for PPAs than can be met by their domestic new build renewable fleets ▪ Cross-border PPAs continue to grow in popularity but have limited application due to the basis spread risk between different markets 40% 7% 107% 84% 94% 123% 60% 116% 268% 91% 141% 94% 553% 41% 50% 179% 192% 169% Market size, composition and outlook III xx% Oversupplied xx% Undersupplied Report (available in June). 8 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL Solar capture price 1 discount to baseload price in 2030* %, Central scenario Sources: Aurora Energy Research The generation mix and load factors affect baseload market prices and capture price discounts across Europe 1) Using capture prices assuming no economic curtailment i.e. plants continue to generate during negative price periods EST GBR BGR BEL DNK 2 DEU ITA 2 ESP FRA GRC POL HRV HUN IRL LTU LVA NLD SVN NOR 2 PRT ROU SRB SWE 2 Average baseload price (2025 – 2040)* EUR/MWh (real 2021), Central scenario EUR 80MWh Legend High level of hydropower generation depresses power prices in the Nordics, lowering capture price revenues available for renewables Most countries in Western Europe see average baseload prices between EUR 60-80/MWh, largely driven by the marginal cost of gas plants Higher levels of thermal generation expose regions in South-east Europe to increasing carbon prices, putting upwards pressure on power prices and therefore renewable capture prices V Project economics European average 2 ▪ Due to the high correlation of solar generation, solar capture prices see a significant discount to baseload prices by 2030 across most of Europe ▪ The capture price discount is the highest in countries with relatively high shares of solar generation combined with high levels of thermal generation, leading to higher rates of cannibalisation (e.g. South-Eastern Europe)9 Aurora_2021.1 CONFIDENTIAL Source: Aurora Energy Research European Solar Market Attractiveness report offerings Changes since prior year report European Solar Market Attractiveness report: Assisting you with market entry and pre-feasibility activities in 24 European markets European Renewables Market Attractiveness report Outline of the European Solar Report ✓ Overview of 18 European power markets and the economics of utility- scale solar PV ✓ Forecasts of major trends important to opportunity for solar including demand growth, commodities, hydrogen ✓ Market attractiveness overview of market and policy indicators (inc. strength of subsidy schemes, permitting risk, grid connection costs/ease, locational signals, attractiveness for co-location) ✓ Market sizing including total demand, solar capacity growth and solar capacity growth under Net Zero-aligned policies, by country ✓ Power Purchase Agreement market sizing and supply/demand balance by country ✓ Heatmaps taking into account forecasted baseload prices and solar capture prices to quickly see the best market opportunities ✓ Summary of key policies & subsidy schemes by country and their differences for utility-scale solar PV ✓ Forecasted returns for utility-scale solar PV for fully merchant commercial operation starting in 2025 and 2030 ✓ Summary of renewables investment trends to have a view of which markets capital is being allocated to ✓ One one hour call with our European research team to discuss the report ✓ Updated rankings based on 2023 fundamentally-modelled price forecasts with commentary on year-on-year changes ✓ (new!) Attractiveness of co-location business models across markets ✓ (new!) Analysis of locational signals within markets ✓ (new