低碳未来的核能：对美国和日本的影响---大西洋理事会.pdf

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: Implications for the United States and Japan Atlantic Council GLOBAL ENERGY CENTER WRITTEN BY Stephen S. GreeneAtlantic Council GLOBAL ENERGY CENTER The Global Energy Center promotes energy security by working alongside government, industry, civil society, and public stakeholders to devise pragmatic solutions to the geopolitical, sustainability, and economic challenges of the changing global energy landscape. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. Atlantic Council 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 For more information, please visit www.AtlanticCouncil.org. The Atlantic Council is grateful to ClearPath Inc., the Howard Baker Forum, the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, and the Nuclear Energy Institute for their generous support of this project. ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-257-1 November 2022 Cover: Electrical power pylons of high-tension electricity power lines in Saint-Folquin, France, in October 2022. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol Design: Donald Partyka and Anais GonzalezAtlantic Council GLOBAL ENERGY CENTER Written by Stephen S. Greene NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: Implications for the United States and JapanTable of Contents Table of Contents 1 Introduction 3 I. Nuclear Energy and Decarbonization 4 II. Challenges to Decarbonization 9 III. Implications for the United States 14 IV. Implications for Japan 18 Conclusion 25 About the Author 27 NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN2 NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN3 Introduction 1 https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power-and-secure-energy-transitions. 2 Robinson Meyer, “Nuclear Is Hot, for the Moment,” Atlantic, November 10, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/11/nuclear-power-hot- moment/620665. 3 Liz Alderman, “France Announces Major Nuclear Power Buildup,” New York Times, February 10, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/france- macron-nuclear-power.html. 4 Dan Murtaugh and Krystal Chia, “China’s Climate Goals Hinge on a $440 Billion Nuclear Buildout,” Bloomberg, November 2, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s. 5 “EU Taxonomy: Commission Begins Expert Consultations on Complementary Delegated Act Covering Certain Nuclear and Gas Activities,” European Commission, January 1, 2022, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_2. 6 See, e.g., Nestor A. Sepulveda, et al., “The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation,” Joule (2018): 2403–2420 accessed May 6, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006. 7 “Net Zero by 2050 Scenario—Data Product,” International Energy Agency, May 2021, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/net-zero-by-2050-scenario. N uclear energy has recently received renewed interest as a tool to address the dual challenges of energy security and climate change. 1 At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), the US delegation highlighted the potential role of advanced nuclear generation in the climate strategy it presented at the conference. 2 French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a renewed emphasis on nuclear power, in addition to expanded renewable generation, to achieve France’s decarbonization goals. 3 China contin- ues to rely on an extensive expansion of nuclear genera- tion, as well as renewables, as it pursues decarbonization while addressing growing energy demand. 4 In the context of the energy market volatility resulting mainly from the war in Ukraine, Japan and other countries have renewed their pursuit of nuclear energy to improve energy security and achieve their decarbonization objectives. 5 Nuclear power is a demonstrated source of dispatchable zero-carbon electricity. Today, it is the only zero-carbon, dispatchable option able to be deployed at scale (with the exception, in some regions, of hydropower and geothermal energy, which have geographic, resource, and environmen- tal limitations). In addition, nuclear energy could be a fea- sible source of power for hydrogen production that is not limited by renewable-resource availability, and advanced nuclear technology can produce heat at the high tempera- tures required for many industrial processes. Skeptics may contend that the long licensing and con- struction time for conventional nuclear plants makes them incompatible with the objective of swift decarbonization of power systems. However, while the near-term acceleration of decarbonization may be achieved, in large part, through rapid deployment of renewable energy, the challenging later stages will need dispatchable generation and stor- age (including approaches to long-term storage that are still being developed). 6 For example, with the addition of more variable renewable energy, weather will begin to have an effect on power supply as well as demand, and dispatchable generation—such as nuclear power—will be needed to help support reliability. In the International Energy Agency’s net-zero scenario, worldwide electric demand will almost double between 2030 and 2050, and, in that period, more than five thousand giga- watts (GW) of new dispatchable generation and storage will need to be added. 7 By that time, advanced nuclear technol- ogies that are currently being built and demonstrated will be in operation, and those technologies will be available for broader deployment, in addition to conventional nuclear power options. Nuclear energy has the potential to be a key component of decarbonization strategies worldwide. This paper dis- cusses the value nuclear energy can have in a decarboniza- tion framework, the challenges decarbonization efforts may face, how nuclear energy could contribute to decarboniza- tion efforts in the United States and Japan, and steps that could strengthen those efforts. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN4 I. Nuclear Energy and Decarbonization 8 Hannah Ritchie, “What Are the Safest and Cleanest Sources of Energy?” Our World in Data, February 10, 2020, https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy. 9 Conventional nuclear power plants require water for cooling, though there are options to reduce the impact on water resources, and many advanced nuclear technologies use alternative approaches that avoid significant water use. 10 “Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System,” International Energy Agency, May 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power-in-a-clean-energy-system. 11 There are several references for more complete technical discussions of advanced nuclear technology, such as International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Nuclear Power, Nuclear Power Technology Development Section, Vienna (Austria) (2020); “Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments A Supplement to: IAEA Advanced Reactors Information System (ARIS) 2020 Edition,” International Atomic Energy Agency, September 2020, https://inis.iaea.org/search/ search.aspx?orig_q=RN:51111609; “Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technology: A Primer,” Nuclear Innovation Alliance, 2021, https://www.nuclearinnovationalliance.org/ advanced-nuclear-reactor-technology-primer. N uclear energy has among the lowest levels of life- cycle carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions of all pow- er-generation options, according to some stud- ies, lower than wind or solar energy. 8 Nuclear energy is both time independent (it is dispatchable, and its availability does not vary with weather conditions) and loca- tion independent (it does not depend on natural availability of renewable resources like hydropower, wind, solar, or geo- thermal energy). 9 It, therefore, provides a route to zero-car- bon energy for regions where renewable resources are less available, and provides power that is not subject to weather variability, reducing the need for energy storage and its associated costs. It provides another option for zero-carbon energy that is less land intensive than renewables, and that imposes less of an impact on the physical space (e.g., less of a visibility impact), representing an alternative approach that may be more attractive to some communities. Today, nuclear power is a major source of zero-carbon energy. It is the largest source of zero-carbon electricity in “advanced economies,” as defined by the International Energy Agency (IEA), representing 40 percent of zero-car- bon power and exceeding the output of renewable genera- tion, despite recent efforts to accelerate deployment of wind and solar power. 10 Nuclear energy is also a cornerstone of the US power sector, representing 20 percent of electric gener- ation (including about half of zero-carbon electricity) and 25 percent in the European Union (about 40 percent of zero-car- bon electricity). There is now extensive development of advanced nuclear designs that take new approaches to nuclear energy. These advanced designs make construction more efficient, inte- grate more readily into power systems that include variable renewable generation, make safety and security part of the inherent design (which also decreases costs and increases siting options), and, in many cases, can support industrial power needs and efficient hydrogen production, in addition to electric generation. 11 The attributes of advanced nuclear reactors include the following. • Efficient construction: advanced designs can be modular, with an emphasis on components that can be manufac- tured in a factory, and which, therefore, require less onsite construction and result in shorter construction times. Long construction times are a key contributor to high costs, with the cost of construction financing representing a significant portion of traditional nuclear power costs. Modular design also allows more rapid iteration, resulting in improved cost and efficiency through technological learning. • Better integration: modular designs allow generation capacity to be added in smaller increments, better match- ing growth needs and imposing less financial stress on project sponsors. Advanced designs also incorporate greater ability to change power output levels than tradi- tional designs (especially those historically used in the United States); some emphasize fast ramping speeds to rapidly respond to changing levels of renewable power, and some incorporate thermal energy storage, which may be more cost effective than battery storage. • Inherent safety and security: advanced approaches incor- porate safety features as an inherent element of the designs, typically relying on “passive” features, such as gravity or natural heat convection, to cool reactors without requiring mechanical intervention. In addition to making safety systems even more reliable, this approach reduces the amount of equipment required to ensure safety, which decreases overall costs. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN5 • Industrial integration: many designs incorporate high-tem- perature output compatible with many industrial require- ments (discussed further below), which also improve the ability of the reactor to produce hydrogen. The two demonstrations funded under the US Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) involve designs incorporating many of these features. The Natrium design to be constructed in Wyoming allows the reactor to oper- ate at a steady output equivalent to three hundred and for- ty-five megawatts (MW), but incorporates a thermal storage system so that it can deliver as little as one hundred mega- watts while renewable energy is available, but up to five hun- dred megawatts for 5.5 hours when renewable energy pro- duction decreases, such as in the evening in a system with substantial solar power. 12 The X-energy Xe-100 reactor to be constructed in the state of Washington is built in 80-MW mod- 12 “Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technology.” 13 Ibid.; “X-Energy,” X-Energy, last visited May 6, 2022, https://x-energy.com/. 14 “Nuclear Energy and Sustainable Development,” World Nuclear Association, last updated April 2020, https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the- environment/nuclear-energy-and-sustainable-development.aspx. 15 Estimates of land use for power generation vary widely. These estimates are from Barry W. Brook and Corey J. A. Bradshaw, “Key Role for Nuclear Energy in Global Biodiversity Conservation,” Conservation Biology (2015): 702–712, https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/cobi.12433. ules, operates at high temperatures with a helium coolant, and incorporates continuous refueling with tri-structural iso- tropic (TRISO) particle fuel that can withstand high tempera- tures and does not melt. 13 Deployment Flexibility Nuclear energy, by its nature, produces a substantial amount of energy in a small land area, especially compared to renew- able power. A two-unit nuclear power plant able to provide electricity for four to five million people covers a footprint of just two square kilometers. 14 For an equal amount of lifetime energy, solar photovoltaic generation may require about sixty times as much land as nuclear generation, and wind gener- ation may cover almost five hundred times as much land, though the space between the turbines can be put to other uses (See Figure 1). 15 Figure 1: Nuclear Energy and Sustainable Development SOURCE: “NUCLEAR ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,” WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION, UPDATED APRIL 2020, HTTPS://WORLD-NUCLEAR.ORG/INFORMATION-LIBRARY/ENERGY-AND-THE-ENVIRONMENT/NUCLEAR-ENERGY-AND-SUSTAINABLE-DEVELOPMENT.ASPX. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN6 The modular design, moderate size, and inherent safety fea- tures of advanced nuclear approaches enable flexibility in deploying new generation. The Natrium demonstration proj- ect, for example, will demonstrate the feasibility of siting new nuclear generation at the site of a retired coal plant. Doing so will enable using a brownfield site rather than develop- ing new land for power generation, will take advantage of existing electrical infrastructure, such as the substation and transmission, and will benefit the community through provid- ing jobs to replace those lost to the coal plant retirement and through adding to the tax base. Four communities sought to be considered for the demonstration and the project ulti- mately selected a site in Kemmerer, Wyoming. 16 Resilience Nuclear power plants are capable of dispatchable opera- tion to operate in systems alongside renewable generati