路孚特2022年全球碳市场年报节选-英文.pdf

COVER TITLE (LIGHT 55/55) Sub title – here (title level 2 white, 35/35) CARBON MARKET YEAR IN REVIEW 2022 • The cost of emitting greenhouse gases was higher than ever before in 2022 in the main emission trading systems (ETS). EU emission allowances averaged above €80/t – 50 percent higher than in 2021. UK allowances fetched an even higher price, and those in both North American markets (WCI and RGGI) averaged higher than any previous year as well. • Even though 20 percent fewer transactions took place overall than in the previous year, prices in the world’s major carbon markets were so much higher in 2022 than ever before that the year set yet another record for turnover at €865 billion. That represents a 14 percent increase from the €762 bn realized in 2021. • In Europe, home to the largest carbon market by traded volume, the volatile but continuously high permit prices were strongly influenced by effects of the war in Ukraine on energy prices overall, particularly high gas prices. Certainty that the EU’s increased climate change mitigation ambition will lead to a tighter market balance going forward was bullish for prices. • China’s national ETS saw limited trading, as development of the program took a backseat to other policy priorities and relatively few permits changed hands without the government having released a new allocation plan or having relaunched its domestic offset program. • While South Korean permits traded at lower prices, units for compliance to New Zealand’s ETS became much more expensive. Japan launched a new program for carbon trading featuring prices comparable to those in power-sector-only ETS such as RGGI and China. 6 February 2023 CONTENTS Executive summary EU UK North America China South Korea New Zealand Japan International aviation Voluntary Carbon Market The Paris Agreement, COP27 3 6 10 12 15 19 21 23 25 28 32 FEWER TRANSACTIONS, BUT MUCH HIGHER PRICES - GLOBAL CARBON MARKET VALUE HITS NEW RECORD Refinitiv, February 2023 World Carbon Markets - Total value by segment €186 bn €240 bn €288 bn €762 bn €865 bn 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 China, SK and NZ North America (WCI and RGGI) UK ETS EU ETSREVIEW OF CARBON MARKETS IN 2022 February 2023 This report presents Refinitiv’s assessment of the world’s major carbon markets in 2022. The aim is to show the main market trends and policy developments in global emission trading systems, and areas where such systems are emerging. We collect data from official sources, primarily carbon trading platforms such as ICE, EEX, KRX, and the Chinese carbon exchanges. When relevant, we estimate and add the size of bilateral (over-the-counter) transactions. This gives us an estimate of the actual volume traded. It covers the main regions in which there are existing or emerging emission markets. Chief among these is Europe with its EU ETS, and since 2021 also the UK ETS. We do not include data from the Swiss ETS. In North America we look at the WCI, RGGI, and the emerging market in Mexico. In China we include the regional pilot ETS, offset trading (CCERs) and trading in the national ETS. We also include South Korea (KETS), New Zealand (NZ ETS), and an assessment of what is left of global offset transactions from the old CDM market. This year for the first time we include a section on the Japanese demonstration carbon credit market, a pilot/preparatory phase for Japan’s voluntary ETS set to start later in 2023. The report also comments on developments in international aviation emissions and related offset trading, in voluntary carbon markets, and on how the Paris Agreement Article 6 might involve transactions of carbon units. These three chapters contain mainly qualitative information, but future editions of the Year in Review may provide quantitative data as markets in these areas evolve. This report was written by the following team of analysts: Yan Qin (Norway), Tatiana Suarez Lopez (Norway), Maria Kolos (Ukraine), Luyue Tan (China), Yoko Nobuoka (Japan), and Lisa Zelljadt (USA).Review of carbon markets in 2022 6 February 2023 3 Sustained record high carbon prices, particularly in the European ETS, made for another record total global carbon market turnover in 2022 despite overall traded volume being down 21 percent from 2021. Even though “only” 12.5 billion tonnes changed hands in the world’s compliance carbon markets (equivalent to 12.5 gigatonnes of CO 2 ) in 2022, the higher prices per unit raised overall value of the carbon markets – particularly those in the large established emission trading systems (ETS) in Europe and North America. We estimate the value of these transactions at around of €865 billion, compared to €762 billion in 2021. PRICES RISING The most significant example of the continued trend of rising carbon prices is the EU ETS, but the North American carbon markets (Western Climate Initiative or WCI, which includes the state of California, and the northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative known as RGGI) are also seeing ever higher carbon prices, as is the New Zealand ETS. The countries/regions these carbon markets are in have been moving toward more ambitious climate targets, and emission trading is set to play an important role in reaching them. As was the case last year, continued price rallies are an effect of this higher climate policy ambition, reflecting market participants’ expectations for a tight future supply-demand balance. EUROPEAN ETS The EU ETS witnessed wild swings and sustained high prices in 2022. The sudden drop in Russian gas supply to Europe threw energy markets into turmoil, impacting trading in all energy related commodities including carbon. The number of allowances 1. Executive summary Table 1.1 Global carbon market size 2020-2022 Refinitiv’s assessment of volume and value of the major carbon markets from 2020 to 2022. Millions of tonnes (Mt), millions of euros * 2020 2021 2022 Volume change 2021-2022 Value change 2022-2022 Share of total value 2022 Mt € million Mt € million Mt € million Europe (EUAs, aviation EUAs)** 10 478 260 067 12 214 682 501 9 277 751 459 -24% 10% 87% UK ETS N/A N/A 335 22 847 512 46 626 53% 104% 5% North America (WCI, RGGI) 2 010 26 028 2 680 51 736 2 505 62 677 -7% 21% 7% China*** 134 257 412 1 289 85 504 -79% -61% 1% South Korea 44 870 51 798 39 618 -24% -23% 1% New Zealand 30 516 81 2 505 60 2 845 -26% 14% 1% CERs (primary and secondary) 16 61 38 151 42 157 11% 4% 1% Total 12 712 287 799 15 811 761 827 12 520 864 886 -21% 14% *All non-European transactions are priced in local currencies, for the sake of consistency we have converted values into euros. The units traded in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative are short tons, which are 0.907 metric tonnes. For unit consistency, we have converted RGGI’s total volume figures to metric tonnes. ** Volume and value include spot, auctions and futures. Option positions are not included. *** Volume includes allowance units for pilot ETS, national ETS, and CCER transactions. Value includes only allowances. Source: Refinitiv, February 2022 traded in the EU ETS declined 24 percent - but since allowance prices remained at record highs, the overall value of the EU ETS still increased 10 percent year-on-year. The cost of emitting greenhouse gases in Europe had tripled in 2021, with permit prices ending the year near €100/tonne. They began 2022 at those levels but oscillated after the war in Ukraine broke out, falling from €95/t to €55/t in just over a week before recovering to around €80/t in Q1. The benchmark EUA contract traded near €90/t by the end of the year, averaging over 50 percent higher than in 2021 at €81/t. Policy drivers of the EU carbon price were strongly related to these energy fundamentals, with a plan to improve Europe’s energy autonomy in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (REPowerEU) being proposed in early Q2 and causing a price drop because it involves selling extra emission allowances to fund itself. Throughout the year, European lawmakers wrestled with the details of EU ETS reform as part of the “Fit for 55” process revamping the bloc’s climate and energy policies to meet tighter greenhouse gas mitigation targets – this was bullish for carbon prices, and culminated in a landmark deal reached in December that prescribing cutting the number of allowances available in the EU ETS. All eyes will be on the implementation of this legislation in 2023, with a massive one-off reduction in allowances scheduled for 2024. On the flipside, sales of extra allowances to finance the REPowerEU plan will inject additional supply and thus weigh on prices. Gas prices will remain an important driver for EU ETS prices in 2023. In the UK ETS, allowances traded at a premium to their EU counterparts throughout 2022, with the spread between the two averaging roughly €12. Volumes were up from 2021, as trading Review of carbon markets in 2022 6 February 2023 4 in that year had not begun until May. At about €47 billion, total market value is proportional to that of the EU ETS given the two markets’ relative size in terms of covered emissions. NORTH AMERICAN ETS The year 2022 set yet another record for market value in both North American emission trading systems, even though permit prices fluctuated rather than rising steadily as they did in 2021 and despite lower overall volumes than in that year. Combined, the two programmes saw 2.5 billion tonnes change hands and were worth over €60 billion. Besides fundamentals, the policy drivers that influenced prices over the year were related to the stringency of the programs going forward. Regulators in California, the main member of the Western Climate Initiative, finalized a plan for achieving the state’s new more ambitious emission reduction target – this is bullish for WCI allowance prices, as the caps will have to be made tighter to align with the steeper overall emission trajectory. A political and legal back-and-forth regarding participation of the state of Pennsylvania in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative influenced activity in that market over 2022. Including this large state’s power sector increases the size of the smaller carbon trading program among northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states dramatically in terms of emissions covered, such that whether Pennsylvania is “in or out” affects the market greatly. While it was officially a member of the ETS in 2022, the court challenge brought by Pennsylvania lawmakers and its coal industry rendered its compliance entities de facto unable to participate in the market. Allowance prices remained relatively flat accordingly. Although 2022 marked the final year of the Mexican national ETS’s “pilot phase” in which participation is voluntary, the government has not set requirements necessary for a functional compliance market in 2023. Covered entities will have to surrender allowances to cover their emissions from 2023, but the country’s environment ministry is not expected to publish final regulations until June. Since those regulations contain the program’s annual allowance budget, which would determine the ratio of permits to expected emissions, the market balance (and hence Mexican carbon price) remains uncertain. CHINA The year 2022 marked the first full year that China’s national ETS was operational, as trading began in H2 2021. With the pandemic and other factors taking precedence over carbon markets, the program continued without the Chinese government having released a new allocation plan or having relaunched its domestic offset program. Regulators published draft allocation plans in November under which emitters’ carbon intensity benchmarks are tighter – this signals that the overall stringency of the program will increase. Over 2022, a total of 51 million Chinese Emission Allowances (CEAs) changed hands – this represents a decrease from 2021. Prices, however, went up compared to 2021. The weighted average price of a CEA over the year 2022 was CNY 55.30/t (~€8), nearly 30 percent higher than the weighted average in 2021. Though the Chinese pilot ETS – some of which have been active since 2013 – continue to operate, they saw a significant drop in Figure 1.1 Emission allowance (permit) prices in key markets 2022 (by month), (Local prices converted to euros) Source: Refinitiv 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 EUR/t China ETS EU ETS UK ETS NZ ETS SK ETS WCI RGGI Figure 1.2: Annual average price per tonne (Local prices converted to euros) Source: RefinitivReview of carbon markets in 2022 6 February 2023 5 volumes during 2022 as power sector emitters turn increasingly to the national ETS. Just over 25 million tonnes traded in all the pilot ETS combined in 2022. ASIA PACIFIC Despite a volume decrease of 26 percent compared with 2021, prices in the New Zealand ETS reached record highs in 2022. It was the first year emitters did not have a fixed price option for compliance. Policy uncertainty accounted for relatively high price volatility over the year: a national climate change commission issued detailed recommendations for tightening elements of the ETS mid-year, but the government ended 2022 by announcing it would not adopt those recommendations. Spot NZU prices rose and fell accordingly, but remained much higher overall than in 2021 which made for record market value in 2022. The Korean ETS, on the other hand, experienced a severe price drop in 2022 due to a pandemic-induced economic downturn that decreased overall Korean emissions in the past three years, leaving the market severely overallocated. This surplus in the market aligned with soaring energy prices and rising inflation in the program’s current 3rd phase (2021-2025), and traded volume was also down. Only 40 million Korean allowances (KAUs) and offsets (KOCs) changed hands in the KETS – 28 percent less than in 2021. The total Korean market value was 22 percent lower than in 2021, at KRW 840 billion (~€619 million). Only one out of the twelve allowance auctions held in 2022 was fully subscribed. Over the year a total of 14 million KAUs were purchased at auctions, vs. 11 million in 2021. In September 2022, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) started a demonstration carbon credit market set to run through the end of January 2023 as a pilot/preparatory phase for Japan’s voluntary ETS starting in April 2023. The initiative is the product of the so called GX League (GX stands for “green transformation”) spearheaded by the Japanese government but led by private sector entities. Given that the trading of emission units under the GX-ETS constitutes a carbon market, we include it for the first time in our year in review by providing volume and price data for the transactions in 2022. In the period from the start of the demonstration on 22 September to the last trading day on 28 December 2022, the TSE carbon credit market saw transactions of credits ranging price from €6/tonne to €106/tonne. In total, around 45 000 tonnes changed hands during this three-month period – market participants preferred to buy units at auct