IEA：2023年能源技术展望（英文版）.pdf

Technology Perspectives 2023 Energy The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European nullmmission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 Abstract PAGE | 3 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to major disruptions to global energy and technology supply chains. Soaring prices for energy and materials, and shortages of critical minerals, semiconductors and other components are posing potential roadblocks for the energy transition. Against this backdrop, the Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 (ETP-2023) provides analysis on the risks and opportunities surrounding the development and scale-up of clean energy and technology supply chains in the years ahead, viewed through the lenses of energy security, resilience and sustainability. Building on the latest energy, commodity and technology data, as well as recent energy, climate and industrial policy announcements, ETP-2023 explores critical questions around clean energy and technology supply chains: Where are the key bottlenecks to sustainably scale up those supply chains at the pace needed? How might governments shape their industrial policy in response to new energy security concerns for clean energy transitions? Which clean technology areas are at greatest risk of failing to develop secure and resilient supply chains? And what can governments do to mitigate such risks while meeting broader development goals? The Energy Technology Perspectives series is the IEA’s flagship technology publication, which has been key source of insights on all matters relating to energy technology since 2006. ETP-2023 will be an indispensable guidebook for decision- makers in governments and industry seeking to tap into the opportunities offered by the emerging new energy economy, while navigating uncertainties and safeguarding energy security. Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 Foreword PAGE | 4 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Foreword The global energy sector is in the midst of profound changes that are set to transform it in the coming decades from one based overwhelmingly on fossil fuels to one increasingly dominated by renewables and other clean energy technologies. A new global energy economy is emerging ever more clearly, with the rapid growth of solar, wind, electric vehicles and a range of other technologies such as electrolysers for hydrogen. This transition is in turn changing the industries that supply the materials and products underpinning the energy system, heralding the dawn of a new industrial age – the age of clean energy technology manufacturing. At the International Energy Agency (IEA), we are dedicated to improving the security, resilience and sustainability of the global energy system. Those interlinked priorities are at the heart of this edition of Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 (ETP-2023), the latest in the IEA’s technology flagship series that began in 2006. As decision-makers seek to understand and adapt to the changes underway, ETP-2023 serves as the world’s first comprehensive global guidebook on the clean energy technology industries of today and tomorrow. It provides a detailed analysis of clean energy technology manufacturing and its supply chains around the world – and how they are likely to evolve as the clean energy transition advances in the years ahead. Major economies around the world – from Asia to Europe to North America – are stepping up efforts to expand their clean energy technology manufacturing with the overlapping aims of advancing net zero transitions, strengthening energy security and competing in the new energy economy. And the current global energy crisis has only accelerated these efforts. These trends have massive implications for governments, businesses, investors and citizens around the world. Every country needs to identify how it can benefit from the opportunities and navigate the challenges of this new energy economy. This report shows that the rapid growth of clean technology manufacturing is set to create new markets worth hundreds of billions of dollars as well as millions of new jobs in the coming years, assuming countries make good on the energy and climate pledges they have announced. At the same time, the industrial strategies that countries develop to secure their places in this new energy economy will need to take into account the emerging challenges that these changes bring. Today, we already see potentially risky levels of concentration in clean energy supply chains globally – both in the manufacturing of the technologies and in the critical minerals on which they rely. Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 Foreword PAGE | 5 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . These challenges are what make ETP-2023 such a vital and timely contribution as policy makers are working to devise the industrial strategies to benefit their economies – and project developers and investors are weighing key decisions on future manufacturing operations. Our analysis shows that the global project pipeline is very large – enough to move the world much closer to reaching international energy and climate goals if it all comes to fruition. But the majority of those announced projects are not yet under construction or set to begin construction imminently. Governments have a role here in providing the supportive policies and broader industrial strategies that can provide developers and investors with the visibility and confidence they need to go ahead. However, this report also shows issues of which governments need to be mindful, such as the importance of ensuring fair and open international trade in clean energy technologies, which will be essential for achieving rapid and affordable energy transitions. ETP-2023 also makes clear that for most countries, it is not realistic to try to compete across all parts of clean energy technology supply chains. Countries will need to play to their strengths, whether that comes in the form of mineral resources, low-cost clean energy supplies, a workforce with relevant skills, or synergies with existing industries. And since no country will be in a position to cover every part of the supply chain at once, international collaboration will be an essential element in industrial strategies. This can include strategic partnerships and foreign direct investment, for example. These are just some of the key issues on which ETP-2023 provides extremely valuable insights. I’m confident decision-makers around the world will greatly appreciate these and the many others contained in these pages. And for this, I would like to thank the excellent team at the IEA’s Energy Technology Policy Division, under the outstanding leadership of my colleague Timur Gül, for all the work that went into producing this report, which will serve as a reference for years to come. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 Acknowledgements PAGE | 6 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Acknowledgements This study was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO), with input from other divisions of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was designed and directed by Timur Gül, Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division. The modelling and analytical teams of Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 (ETP-2023) were coordinated by Araceli Fernandez (Head of the Technology Innovation Unit) and Uwe Remme (Head of the Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit). Peter Levi (industrial competitiveness) and Leonardo Paoli (investment needs) were responsible for the analysis of cross-cutting topics throughout the report. The principal authors and contributors from the ETP division were (in alphabetical order): Praveen Bains (synthetic hydrocarbon fuels), Jose Miguel Bermudez (hydrogen production including electrolysers), Amar Bhardwaj (electrolysers), Sara Budinis (direct air capture, technology manufacturing), Elizabeth Connelly (fuel cell trucks, technology manufacturing), Chiara Delmastro (heat pumps, technology manufacturing), Mathilde Fajardy (bioenergy with carbon capture, risk assessment), Stavroula Evangelopoulou (electricity infrastructure), Breanna Gasson (risk assessment), Alexandre Gouy (critical minerals, materials), Carl Greenfield (policy), Will Hall (sustainability, materials), Mathilde Huismans (wind, data management), Megumi Kotani (policy), Jean-Baptiste Le Marois (status of clean technology supply chains, innovation), Rafael Martínez Gordón (heat pumps, wind), Shane McDonagh (fuel cell trucks), Rachael Moore (CO 2 management infrastructure), Faidon Papadimoulis (trade, data management), Francesco Pavan (electrolysers, hydrogen infrastructure), Amalia Pizarro Alonso (hydrogen infrastructure), Richard Simon (resilience, innovation), Jacob Teter (policy), Tiffany Vass (materials, policy) and Biqing Yang (China industrial policy). The IEA’s Energy Modelling Office led by Chief Energy Modeller Laura Cozzi coordinated the employment analysis, in particular Daniel Wetzel, Caleigh Andrews and Olivia Chen; and the analysis on electricity infrastructure, in particular Michael Drtil. Other key contributors from across the IEA were Julien Armijo, Piotr Bojek, Leonardo Collina, Shobhan Dhir, Conor Gask, Pablo Gonzalez, Ilkka Hannula, Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 Acknowledgements PAGE | 7 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . George Kamiya, Samantha McCulloch, Yannick Monschauer, Takashi Nomura, Nasim Pour, Vida Rozite and Fabian Voswinkel. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA, in particular Keisuke Sadamori, Laura Cozzi, Dan Dorner, Tim Gould, Brian Motherway, Paolo Frankl, Heymi Bahar, Simon Bennett, Thomas Spencer and Brent Wanner. Caroline Abettan, Liselott Fredriksson, Reka Koczka and Per-Anders Widell provided essential support throughout the process. Thanks also to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Curtis Brainard, Jon Custer, Hortense De Roffignac, Tanya Dyhin, Merve Erdem, Grace Gordon, Barbara Moure, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain‐Semelin, Julie Puech, Clara Vallois, Gregory Viscusi, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang. Trevor Morgan provided writing support to the report and holds editorial responsibility. Erin Crum and Kristine Douaud were the copy-editors. The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the Governments of Australia and Japan. Several senior government official and experts provided essential input and feedback to improve the quality of the report. They include: Matt Antes Department of Energy, United States Florian Ausfelder DECHEMA Matthew Aylott Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, United Kingdom Harmeet Bawa Hitachi Energy Adam Baylin-Stern Carbon Engineering Marlen Bertram International Aluminium Institute Fabrizio Bezzo Università di Padova Souvik Bhattacharjya TERI, the Energy and Resources Institute, India Chris Bolesta Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission Javier Bonaplata ArcelorMittal Antoine Boubault Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, France Keith Burnard Technology Collaboration Programme on Greenhouse Gas R production of materials like lithium, copper, nickel, steel, cement, aluminium and plastics; and the manufacturing and installation of key technologies. The report maps out how these sectors may evolve in the coming decades as countries pursue their energy, climate and industrial goals. And it assesses the opportunities and the needs for building up secure, resilient and sustainable supply chains for clean energy technologies – and examines the implications for policy makers. The new energy economy brings opportunities and risks Clean energy transitions offer major opportunities for growth and employment in new and expanding industries. There is a global market opportunity for key mass-manufactured clean energy technologies worth around USD 650 billion a year by 2030 – more than three times today’s level – if countries worldwide fully implement their announced energy and climate pledges. Related clean energy manufacturing jobs would more than double from 6 million today to nearly 14 million by 2030, with over half of these jobs tied to electric vehicles, solar PV, wind and heat pumps. As clean energy transitions advance beyond 2030, this would lead to further rapid industrial and employment growth. But there are potentially risky levels of concentration in clean energy supply chains – both for the manufacturing of technologies and the materials on Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 Executive summary PAGE | 21 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . which they rely. China currently dominates the manufacturing and trade of most clean energy technologies. China’s investment in clean energy supply chains has been instrumental in bringing down costs worldwide for key technologies, with multiple benefits for clean energy transitions. At the same time, the level of geographical concentration in global supply chains also creates potential challenges that governments need to address. For mass-manufactured technologies like wind, batteries, electrolysers, solar panels and heat pumps, the three largest producer countries account for at least 70% of manufacturing capacity for each technology – with China dominant in all of them. The geographical distribution of critical mineral extraction is closely linked to resource endowments, and much of it is very concentrated. For example, Democratic Republic of Congo alone produces 70% of the world’s cobalt, and just three countries account for more than 90% of global lithium production. Concentration at any point along a supply chain makes the entire supply chain vu