碳定价机制发展现状与未来趋势报告2022（英）-世界银行.pdf

State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2022© 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 25 24 23 22 This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1895-0 DOI: 10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1895-0 2The development of this report was led by the World Bank and prepared by experts from the World Bank and Climate Focus. Contributions, including on data and information on mandatory cap-and-trade systems, were provided by the International Carbon Action Partnership. Additional data and contributions were also provided by Ecosystem Marketplace and CDP. SinoCarbon Innovation Kyeongah Ahn; Gabriela Alarcón-Esteva; Andrés Camilo Álvarez; Erik van Andel; Veli Auvinen; Isabella Maria Pereira de Ávila; Marco Antonio Murcia Baquero; Pía Biestro; Pierre Bouchard; Brunei Climate Change Secretariat, Ministry of Development; Marcelo Caffera; Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho; Marcos Castro; Central Statistics Office (Ireland); Daniella Marques Cosentino; Marta Hernández de la Cruz; Francisco Dall Orso; Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (United Kingdom); Department of Finance (Government of the Northwest Territories, Canada); Department of Finance (Ireland); Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (Australia); Ira Dorband; Bill Drumheller; Maosheng Duan; Thomas Duchaine; Jane Ellis; Dominik Englert; Klenize Chagas Fávero; Simon Fellermeyer; Simone von Felten; Demetrio Florentino de Toledo Filho; Carolyn Fischer; Teresa Solozabal Gallego; Aric Gliesche; Marlen Goerner; Government of Saskatchewan, Canada; Government of Singapore; Greenhouse Gas Inventory Stephane Hallagatte; Sharlin Hemraj; Min Hou; Iñaki Gili Jauregui; Angela Naneu Churie Kallhauge; Jussi Kiviluoto; Britta Labuhn; Camille Leboeuf; Sungwoo Lee; Scott Legree; Emídio Lopes; Luca Lo Re; Glenda Bezerra Lustosa; Memory Machingambi; Lía Lizzette Ferreira Márquez; Taisei Matsuki; Ermi Miao; Ministry of Environment and Parks (Government of Alberta, Canada); Ministry of the Environment (Estonia); Ministry of the Environment (Japan); Ministry of Finance (Luxembourg); Sara Moarif; Sarah Moyer; Daniel Nachtigall; New Brunswick Climate Change Secretariat; Office of the Revenue Commissioners (Ireland); Matthias Ofner; Klaus Oppermann; Ian Parry; Jeannette Ramirez; Kim Ricard; Susanne Riedener; Marisol Rivera-Planter; Germán Romero; Giovanni Ruta; José Ricardo Ramos Sales; Rico Salgmann; Marissa Santikarn; Juan Pedro Searle; Pola Shim; Gustavo Saboia Fontenele e Silva; Edson Silveira Sobrinho; Moekti Handajani Soejachmoen; Will Space; Sandhya Srinivasan; Katie Sullivan; Swedish Energy Agency; Tokyo Metropolitan Government; Simon Tudiver; Maiko Uga; Under Secretariat of Public Revenue, Ministry of Economy (Argentina); Andhyta Firselly Utami; Marijke Vermaak; Stefanie Wukovits; Olga Yukhymchuk; and Mourad Ziani. Report design was done by Kynda and editing was done by EpsteinWords. This report has been developed as part of the Knowledge Program under the Partnership for Market Implementation. 3FIGURE 1 Map of carbon taxes and ETSs 16 FIGURE 2 Share of global GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing instruments 17 FIGURE 3 Absolute emissions coverage, share of emissions covered, and prices for CPIs across jurisdictions 19 FIGURE 4 Price evolution in select ETSs from 2008 to 2021 21 FIGURE 5 Record high carbon tax rates in six jurisdictions 23 FIGURE 6 Carbon prices as of April 1, 2022 26 FIGURE 7 Revenue generated per carbon pricing instrument in 2021 27 FIGURE 8 Evolution of global carbon pricing revenues over time 27 FIGURE 9 Global volume of issuances by crediting mechanism category 34 FIGURE 10 Stylized representation of types of carbon crediting mechanisms and market segments 36 FIGURE 11 Credit issuance and number of projects in 2021, by category of mechanisms 37 FIGURE 12 Map of national and subnational crediting mechanisms 39 FIGURE 13A Type and use of internal carbon pricing 42 FIGURE 13B Uptake of internal carbon pricing 43 FIGURE 14 Prices of standardized carbon credit contracts 43 FIGURE 15 Multilayered purchaser decisions shape diverse markets and prices 45 FIGURE 16 Credits issued, registered activities, average 2020 price, and sectors covered by crediting mechanisms 66 List of figures 4BOX 1 Direct carbon pricing instruments 13 BOX 2 Revisions to global GHG coverage estimates in this year’s report 18 BOX 3 The role of the financial sector in emissions trading 24 BOX 4 The EU’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 29 BOX 5 Article 6 rules on linking emissions trading systems 31 BOX 6 Just transition in the EU’s climate policy 32 BOX 7 Understanding carbon credit markets 35 BOX 8 Internal carbon pricing 42 BOX 9 What is tokenization? 47 BOX 10 The finalized Article 6 Rulebook provides room for flexibility in voluntary transactions 48 BOX 11 Article 6 activities 50 TABLE B1 Carbon pricing developments in selected Canadian provinces and territories 56 TABLE B2 Developments in China’s subnational pilots 57 List of boxes and tables 5BC British Columbia BCA Border carbon adjustment CAD Canadian dollar CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CCM Cost containment mechanism CCR Cost containment reserve CDM Clean Development Mechanism CHF Swiss franc CNY Chinese yuan CO 2 Carbon dioxide COP Conference of the Parties COP26 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (26th Conference of the Parties) COP27 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (27th Conference of the Parties) CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation CPI Carbon pricing instrument EDGAR Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research EITe Emissions-intensive trade exposed EPE Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (Energy Research Corporation, Brazil) ETS Emissions trading system EU European Union EUR Euro G7 Group of Seven G20 Group of 20 GBP British pound GHG Greenhouse gas GtCO 2 Gigatons (a billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide HFLD High Forest Low Deforestation ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICP Internal carbon price IMF International Monetary Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITMO Internationally transferred mitigation outcome JCM Joint Crediting Mechanism KCU Korean Credit Unit KOC Korean Offset Credit LPG Liquefied petroleum gas MRV Monitoring, reporting, and verification MSR Market stability reserve MtCO 2 Million metric tons of carbon dioxide NbS Nature-based solution NDC Nationally determined contribution nEHS National Emissions Trading Scheme (Germany) NOK Norwegian krone NZD New Zealand dollar OBPS Output-based pricing system (Canada) OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PMI Partnership for Market Implementation REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative SBTi Science-Based Targets Initiative SDG Sustainable Development Goal SGD Singapore dollar SLCCS Sri Lanka Carbon Crediting Scheme TCI-P Transportation and Climate Initiative Program tCO 2 Metric tons of carbon dioxide tCO 2 e Metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent TEPA Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration UAH Ukrainian hrynia UK United Kingdom UKA United Kingdom Allowance UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change US United States USD United States dollar UYU Uruguayan peso VCMI Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative VCS Verified Carbon Standard WTO World Trade Organization ZAR South African rand List of abbreviations 6Table of contents 7Foreword The climate crisis continues to escalate amid a prolonged pandemic, increasing economic instability and geopolitical tensions. Commitments made at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) keep hope alive that avoiding the worst effects of climate change is within our reach, but the peril remains stark. The latest work from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes plain that we must arrest rising emissions now to ward off climate danger. Meeting this challenge in uncertain times calls for ambitious, just, and comprehensive action by policymakers. In this regard, carbon pricing, within an integrated policy mix, is one of the most powerful tools available for guiding economies toward low-emission paths. To maximize the benefits, carbon price signals must be sustained, strengthened, and extended to a greater portion of global emissions, three- quarters of which are currently untouched by carbon pricing instruments. However, recent economic instability, volatile energy markets, and rising energy prices exacerbate the political challenges for policymakers. The World Bank’s annual report on the State and Trends of Carbon Pricing continues to provide a trusted global snapshot of carbon pricing developments from year to year. The past year has seen some positive signs, particularly in relation to higher carbon prices, increased revenues, and the adoption of new rules for international carbon markets (under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement). However, as in previous years, progress has been far from adequate. As of April 1, 2022, only four new carbon pricing instruments had been implemented in the past year and despite record-high prices in some jurisdictions, the price in most jurisdictions remains well below the levels required to deliver on the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In 2021, higher carbon prices, revenue from new instruments, and increased auctioning in emissions trading systems resulted in a record USD 84 billion of global carbon pricing revenue, around 60% higher than in 2020. Such an impressive increase highlights carbon pricing’s burgeoning potential to reshape incentives and investment toward deep decarbonization. Further, it illustrates carbon pricing’s potential role as a broader fiscal tool to contribute toward broader policy objectives, such as to restore depleted public finances, aid pandemic recovery, or support vulnerable sectors and communities to adapt to climate impacts and achieve just transitions. During this year, cross-border approaches for carbon pricing and international cooperation have made significant strides forward. The European Union moved closer to adopting its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while Canada and other jurisdictions reaffirmed their commitments to investigate border carbon adjustments (BCAs) and bring down hitherto daunting technical and political barriers to such reforms. The COP26 agreements on new rules for international carbon markets will help pave the way for more cross-country collaborations and trade. Encouragingly, more countries continue to explore options to introduce a carbon price, including low- and middle-income countries. The World Bank is gearing up to meet this increased demand from client countries for technical support on carbon pricing—and is helping countries mainstream it into wider fiscal policy and long-term decarbonization strategies. This includes developing advisory services, analytics, innovation, and hosting initiatives such as the Partnership for Market Implementation (PMI). The PMI will provide technical assistance to at least 30 countries in developing and implementing domestic carbon pricing and operationalizing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The World Bank Group’s Climate Change Action Plan (2021-2025) committed to increase the World Bank’s climate finance target, align financing flows with the goals of the Paris Agreement, and achieve results that integrate climate and development. Through this Action Plan, the World Bank Group is well positioned to leverage its convening power, knowledge and research, and country program support to help countries make informed climate decisions, including on carbon pricing. BERNICE VAN BRONKHORST Climate Change Global Director, World Bank Group 8CARBON PRICING CAN PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND RECOVERY • More ambitious carbon prices can help close the gap between pledges and policy and “keep 1.5 alive.” • Along with lowering emissions, car