世界能源展望2022（英）-道达尔能源.pdf

TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022 Energy trends since 2000: transition has started GDP growth decoupled from total energy demand and CO2 emissions growth TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 20222 CAGR 2000/2019 Index of key indicators 2000=100 CO2 emissions Total energy demand Natural gas demand Renewables demand Coal demand Electricity demand GDP 3,5% 3,2% 2,7% 2,5% 2,6% 2,0% 1,9% 1,1% Power fastest growing energy, oil slowest one Coal growth, triggered by China take-off since 2000, slowing since 2015 Natural gas and renewables growing at the same speed Energy intensity gains explaining most of the decoupling between GDP and emissions growth As in 2000, fossil fuels still make up 81% of the energy mix in 2019 Oil demand Energy int. gains 1,5% 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021 demand rebound due to stronger than expected economic growth +6% energy demand in 2021, vs. +4% anticipated in TEO21 Energy security and sovereignty back in focus: oil and gas matter ‘Save gas for a safe winter’ – Ursula Von der Leyen Will current market disruptions speed up or slow down the energy transition? TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 20223 Renewed ambitions for electrification and REN deployments REPowerEU, IRA in the US Higher prices may favor efficiency gains (via substitution or demand reduction) 2011-2014 high energy prices example: efficiency gains x2 Energy affordability is fundamental: high energy bills becoming a major issue European electricity prices topped @1000€/boe Short term coal consumption and CO2 on the rise Coal demand +7% in 2021, energy-related CO2 +2 Gt Clean H2 potential gaining traction 20 Mt Green H2 in EU in 2030 target, strong fiscal incentives in IRA in the US Need to preserve energy security increased Sustainable Liquid Fuels (incl. SAF) ambitions for marine and aviation • Speeding up end-use electrification with strong growth in REN deployments • Natural gas keeping strong role as key transition energy in power and industry, much less in mobility • Biofuels and biogas penetrating selected segments • H2 potential confirmed with ramp up after 2030 • High polymer recycling objectives Momentum: accelerating the ramp-up of greener molecules and electrons GDP growth : +3.0%/yr Energy growth: +0.4%/yr Rupture: how to reach well-below 2°C GDP growth : +3.0%/yr Energy growth: +0.2%/yr • Speeding up energy switch to reduce emission and increase energy efficiency • Further development of electricity & renewables • Extension of road transport revolution with higher ZEV* penetration worldwide • Higher penetration of new energy carriers (clean H2 in industry & transport, e-fuels, biofuels and biogas…) * Zero-emission vehicle 1000 2000 3000 6 The energy transition must be just Meeting the needs of growing populations in developing economies • Global energy demand growth of +0.4% p.a. from 2019 to 2050 reflects 2 opposite trends: non-OECD +1.0% p.a. and OECD -0.7% p.a. • OECD countries need to support the clean transition in developing countries through financing and technology transfers TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022 Changes in Non-OECD primary energy demand 2019-2050 (Momentum) PJ/d CAGRs: +0,8% +2,8% -2,6% +1,0% CAGRs: +0,2% +1,6% -2,5% -0,7% Changes in OECD* primary energy demand 2019-2050 (Momentum) PJ/dMostly transition from inefficient traditional energy to modern energy including electricity High electrification and energy efficiency efforts 2019 Population 2050Energy efficiency GDP per capita 2019 Population 2050Energy efficiency GDP per capita 60% 71% 37% 26% * Sum of OECD and non-OECD demands not equal to total demand as international transport (bunkers) not reallocated Global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2019 GtCO2 25 50 How to curb emissions? A comprehensive transformation of our energy production and usage TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 20227 Global anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2019 GtCO2e CO2 from land-use change Other greenhouse gases (N2O…) Methane from agriculture, waste Methane emissions from coal* * Production & transport of fossil fuels ** Includes energy sector own use, transport losses, and energy transformation Energy-related CO2 : 33 Gt CO2 from industrial processes Methane from oil & gas* ~58 Gt Decarbonization of power and transport are the key priorities Reducing methane emissions is also mandatory 5 10 15 Agriculture & Other Energy transformation Res. & Com. Industry Transport Power Coal Oil Gas Other e ergy use** Power & Heat Agriculture Strong electrification of end-use ~20% of final demand ~30% ~40% Deep decarbonization of power supply 2 100 TWh* (8% of power generation) 24 000 TWh*(~50%) 34 000 TWh*(~60%) Gas going greener 300 11% 2 500 5 000 2019 2050 14% 30 000 60 000 2019 2050 500 1 000 2019 2030 2050 5 10 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 World Total Final Consumption Electricity outstrips oil in the early 2040s TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202216 Total final consumption PJ/d Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector Gt • Final energy mix more and more diversified • End-user electrification via clean power #1 driver of all NZ50 policies • Fossil fuels share down from 2/3 to ~45% Res&Com Industry Transport • In momentum, emissions curbed first and foremost from transport, the n°1 end-user emitting sector today Natural gas Coal BiomassBiogas Electricity Biofuels H2-based* Heat Other renewables Oil Momentum* Includes H2, e-fuels (H2 + CO2), methanol, ammonia… 1 000 2 000 2019 2030 2050 15 30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 World energy demand and CO2 emissions Great effort towards energy transition but insufficient to meet global targets TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202217 Total primary energy demand PJ/d • Energy-related CO2 emissions drop by ~35% to reach 21 Gt in 2050 (net of ~3 Gt CCS, mainly in power, blue H2 and industry) • Temperature would rise by +2.1-2.3°C by 2100 (P66) Energy-related CO2 emissions Gt • Primary energy demand up by ~15% by 2050 • Renewables & natural gas both growing, playing key complementary roles Bioenergy* Oil Nuclear Hydro Natural gas Coal Solar & Wind Other renewables Momentum* Includes traditional use of biomass, waste, biofuels, biogas… Zoom TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202218 • A closer look at NZE countries • EU27: progressing its Green Deal • Africa: a promising energy transition path 15% 12% 5 10 2019 2050 43% 30% 100 200 300 2019 2050 36% 24% 1 000 2 000 2019 2050 Net Zero by 2050 countries At the forefront of the energy transition TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202219 New in TEO 2022: Australia, UAE, Singapore and Taiwan Power generation carbon-neutral by 2040 (net of CCS) Renewables @80% of 2050 power generation, natural gas to manage variability Road Transport carbon-neutral by 2050 ~ 100% of fleet converted to electricity or hydrogen by 2050 Electrification with clean power Electricity @46% of 2050 final consumption (World: 33%) Leading in clean H2 and green gases penetration 40% of green gases in 2050 total gases demand Main game changers in Net-Zero 2050 countries Population Billion people GDP PPP, real, T$ NZ 2050 countries Rest of world Energy demand PJ/d Zoom 500 2019 2030 2050 20 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Net Zero by 2050 countries Forging the net-zero emissions pathway TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202220 • After 2 Gt of CCS, 1 Gt of emissions remaining in 2050 • Net-Zero countries’ efforts far from sufficient • Full decarbonization of non-OECD countries will not happen without cooperation and support from NZ countries • NZ 2050 countries energy demand to fall by ~25% in 30 years • Fossil fuels share fall from almost 80% to less than 40% in 2050 • Residual oil demand mainly in transport and petrochemicals • Natural gas keeping a strong role in power and for blue H2 production Bioenergy* Oil Nuclear Hydro Natural gas Coal Solar & Wind Other renewables NZ 2050 countries Non-NZ 2050 countries (Momentum) Momentum Zoom* Includes modern use of bioenergy such as biofuels, biogas… NZ 2050 countries primary energy demand PJ/d World energy-related CO2 emissions Gt 200 2019 2030 2050 2 000 4 000 2019 2030 2050 Energy intensity gains EU27 Leveraging short-term emergency measures to engage structural transformation TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202221 EU27 primary energy demand PJ/d EU27 power generation (incl. Green H2) TWh • Power generation level & REN capacities consistent with 2030 Fit for 55 • Non-carbon sources reach 95% of EU27 power generation by 2050, driven by a 7-fold increase in Solar & Wind generation • Very high share of wind generation creates favorable conditions for green H2 production, 30 Mt by 2050 consuming 25% of power generation • EU leading the NZ50 countries in reducing fossil fuels, using bioenergy and deploying REN • Current energy crisis a unique opportunity to pursue energy efficiency efforts: reduces demand by ~15% by 2030 • Cost of green transition and increased energy security being endorsed by EU governments Other REN CoalNatural gas Off. wind Ons. wind Solar Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Bioenergy* Oil Nuclear Hydro Natural gas Coal Solar & Wind Other renewables Zoom* Includes modern use of bioenergy such as biofuels, biogas… Oil Gas 0.1% 11% 5% Solar Hydro Wind Potential capacity* Installed capacity as 2019 10 TW 350 GW 110 GW TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202222 Today As of 2019 Population Energy demand Energy-related CO2 emissions RenewablesEnergy potential Oil & gas reserves** Africa A continent with huge untapped resources 6% 1 000 2 000 PJ/d 4% 20 40 GtCO2 World Africa Energy demandPopulation …with electricity Energy-related CO2 emissions Tomorrow (Momentum 2050) x2 x2.5 x1.5 x1.5 Zoom 27 years 65 years * Source: African Development Bank ** 2P + 2C reserves / production in 2019 17% 5 10 Billion people TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202223 - Energy demand growth of 1.4% p.a. to 2050 - Urbanization facilitates partial transition away from inefficient and highly-emitting traditional biomass to cleaner modern energies - Energy mix leveraging domestic oil & gas resources, with modest impact on CO2 emissions - Moderate development of solar, wind and hydro Rupture - Energy demand growth of 0.5% p.a. to 2050 - Elimination of traditional biomass thanks to quasi-universal electrification - Accelerated development of intermittent renewables and hydro, leading to an almost total phase out of coal - Oil & gas resources continue to play important roles to support economic and social development Momentum Africa More energy to improve the living standards of a growing population Other renewables Solar & Wind Traditional biomass Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal Modern bioenergy Africa primary energy demand PJ/d Zoom 50 100 150 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture 2 000 4 000 2019 2050 2050 Momentum 861 2579 4032 2 000 4 000 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202224 Africa Massive electrification with renewables, driven by urbanization • Between 2019 and 2050, power generation multiplied by 3 in Momentum and by 5 in Rupture. Solar, hydro, and wind accounting for more than 80% of growth (100% in Rupture) • Significant financial transfers from OECD countries required to fund clean infrastructure projects • Strong improvements in power sector governance also mandatory • Power demand growth of 3.6% p.a. (Momentum) & 5.1% p.a. (Rupture) • Strong urbanization leading to significant Res&Com expansion, accounting for half of power growth to 2050 in both scenarios Zoom Africa power generation TWh Africa power demand by sector TWh Other renewablesBioenergy* Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal Solar Other sectors** Industry Res. & Com. Transport Agriculture * Includes traditional use of biomass, waste, biofuels, biogas … ** Other energy use and non-energy use Rupture TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202225 Key additional levers: • Accelerated electrification of demand • Accelerated deployment of REN Rupture wrap-up – CO2 emissions 500 1 000 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture 5 10 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 World Total Final Consumption Increased electrification in non-OECD essential to remain well-below 2°C TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202226 Total final consumption PJ/d • Transport emissions divided by 3 in Rupture 2050 (by 2 in Momentum) with accelerated electrification • Industry emissions reduced to ~80% of current level in Rupture 2050 (~10% in Momentum) CO2 emissions by sector Gt • Electricity, H2-based fuels, bioenergies accounting for two thirds of final energy demand in Rupture 2050 • Almost complete phase-out of coal, strong reduction in oil • Continued role for natural gas and green gases Oil Natural gas Coal Biofuels Other renewables H2-based* Electricity Biomass Biogas Heat Transport Res&Com Industry RuptureMomentum Rupture* Includes H2, e-fuels (H2 + CO2), methanol, ammonia… 50% 100% HDV traffic LV fleet 0% 50% 100% Marine Aviation World demand in Transport Accelerated substitution away from oil on a global scale TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 202227 Transport total final consumption PJ/d • Non-fossil share becoming dominant in all transport modes • 50% CO2 emissions reduction in 2050 for marine (vs 2005) and for aviation (vs 2008) Electricity and fuel cells share in 2050 LV fleet (Billions Vehicles) and HDV traffic (km) % • In Rupture, oil represents less than 1/3 of transport final energy demand as alternatives are widely deployed in all segments • Electricity, together with advanced fuels (bio-based and H2-based) will drive decarbonization. Oil Natural gas Biofuels H2-based* Electricity Biogas Non-fossil fuels share of energy demand in 2050 % RuptureMomentum RuptureMomentum Rupture* Includes H2, e-fuels (H2 + CO2), methanol, ammonia… 200 400 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture 300 600 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture 200 400 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture World demand in Industry and Res. & Com. Deep electrification and strong efficiency gains TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022 Industry total final consumption PJ/d Res. & Com. Total final consumption PJ/d • Industry deep decarbonization enabled by multiple in-depth changes: - Coal-to-gas substitution wherever possible, then gas-to-electricity - Adoption of H2 for select processes (ex: steel DRI, fertilizers) - CCS for industry in 2050 tripling from 0,5 Gt in Momentum to ~1.5 Gt in Rupture H2-based* Electricity Biomass Oil Biogas Natural gas Coal Heat Other renewables 28 Natural gas Biomass Biogas Electricity H2-based*Heat Other renewables Oil • Flat Rupture Res&Com demand by 2050 thanks to major energy efficiency gains (buildings, lighting, appliances,…) • Deep penetration of electricity facilitated by urbanization and massive power networks” development • Buildings renovation needs to be dramatically accelerated from current rates, requiring targeted support mechanisms Rupture* Includes H2, e-fuels (H2 + CO2), methanol, ammonia… 30 000 60 000 2019 2050 2050 Momentum 30 000 60 000 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture World Power demand and generation A world well-below 2