热泵的未来（英）-IEA.pdf

World Energy Outlook Special Report The Future of Heat PumpsThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 3 1 member countries, 1 1 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine Foreword 3 Foreword Today, many of the ways we heat buildings around the world – such as homes, offices, schools and factories – still rely largely on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas. It has long been clear that this leads to large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions – and the current global energy crisis is a sharp reminder of the urgency of moving to more affordable, reliable and cleaner ways of heating buildings. In this context, heat pumps, which can efficiently provide heating to buildings and industry, are the key technology to make heating more secure and sustainable. They are quickly becoming more cost competitive, drawing interest from a growing number of governments, businesses and consumers across the globe. Until now, though, there has not been a comprehensive global study of the state of play of heat pumps – and their future role in our energy systems. This World Energy Outlook special report aims to fill that gap. Our in‐depth analysis finds that policy plans announced so far by governments globally point to a large expansion of the use of heat pumps, which will have a clear impact on the use of gas, oil and coal for heating. Heat pumps have the potential to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by at least 500 million tonnes in 2030. For Europe, they are a vital tool to cut reliance on Russian gas, since they can lower Europe’s largest source of gas demand – heating in buildings – by at least 21 billion cubic metres in 2030. However, this special report shows there are key bottlenecks that need addressing to ramp up heat pumps’ production and deployment. Government support is essential to help consumers overcome upfront costs and tap into the savings heat pumps provide. This is an urgent priority to shield low‐income households from the energy crisis. There is also a lack of workers to install heat pumps, with electricians, technicians and construction workers already among the jobs that companies in Europe and the United States are struggling to fill. The growing role of heat pumps also requires policy makers to pay careful attention to the electricity security implications. Combining heat pump deployment with energy efficiency retrofits of buildings can reduce these risks, and leveraging smart controls can turn heat pumps into a grid asset, when employed alongside appropriate planning for electricity grids. I would like to thank the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for its collaboration on this report – and also the over 120 high‐level representatives from governments, industry and academia around the world who took part in the excellent heat pump workshop we held in October at IEA headquarters in Paris, sharing valuable perspective and insights. I am also very grateful to the IEA team who worked quickly to assemble this timely and comprehensive report, under the outstanding leadership of my colleague Laura Cozzi. I am confident it will help inform decision‐makers around the world in this urgent moment on how to clear the way for heat pumps to play their critical role in addressing the energy and climate crises. Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency IEA. CC BY 4.4. Acknowledgements 5 Acknowledgements This study was prepared by the World Energy Outlook team in the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks in co‐operation with other directorates and offices of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook. Yannick Monschauer co‐ordinated the project and was the lead author. Daniel Wetzel provided co‐ordination and authoring support. Stéphanie Bouckaert oversaw the modelling development. Other principal IEA authors of the report include: Justina Bodláková (labour and supply chains), François Briens (costs), Olivia Chen (employment), Daniel Crow (climate and implications), Davide D’Ambrosio (data science), Víctor García Tapia (outlook), Timothy Goodson (outlook and investments), Pauline Henriot (demand flexibility), Bruno Idini (costs and report production), Hyeji Kim (affordability and costs), Arthur Rogé (policies and EU focus), Fabian Voswinkel (industry, F‐gases and non‐cost barriers). Marina Dos Santos provided essential support. Chiara Delmastro and Rafael Martínez‐Gordón led the modelling and provided essential contributions, along with the Energy Technology and Policy team. Other valuable contributions were made by Ashley Acker, Ana Alcalde Báscones, Oskaras Alšauskas, Caleigh Andrews, Elisa Asmelash, Yasmine Arsalane, Vittoria Chen, Julie Dallard, Nouhoun Diarra, Michael Drtil, Will Hall, Ilkka Hannula, Paul Hugues, Martin Husek, Martin Küppers, Kazuhiro Kurumi, Toru Muta, Aloys Nghiem, Max Schönfisch, Carlo Starace, Monica Troilo, Gianluca Tonolo and Anthony Vautrin. Trevor Morgan carried editorial responsibility. Erin Crum was the copy‐editor. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA. In particular, Keisuke Sadamori, Dan Dorner, Tim Gould, Paolo Frankl, Timur Gül, Brian Motherway and Araceli Fernandez Pales. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report and website materials, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Curtis Brainard, Hortense de Roffignac, Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain‐Semelin, Julie Puech, Robert Stone, Clara Vallois, Gregory Viscusi, Lucile Wall, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang. IEA’s Office of the Legal Counsel, Office of Management and Administration, and Energy Data Centre provided assistance throughout the preparation of the report. External contributions were provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Nigel Jollands, Greg Gebrail, Lyza Rossi), the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on Heat Pumping Technologies (Caroline Haglund Stignor, Monica Axell, Metkel Yebiyo, Stephan Renz, Morgan Willis, Benjamin Zühlsdorf, Christoph Reichl) and David Wilkinson (independent consultant). IEA. CC BY 4.0. 6 World Energy Outlook | Special Report The work could not have been achieved without the support and input provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Heat Pump Association, Siemens Energy, Viessmann and the IEA Clean Energy Transition Programme. A consultation workshop was held at IEA headquarters in Paris at the beginning of October 2022 with 120 high‐level representatives from governments, major manufacturers and academia in which participants offered valuable insights, feedback and data for this analysis. We are grateful for their input. Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Dries Acke SolarPowerEurope Daniele Maria Agostini Enel Monica Axell Research Institute of Sweden, Heat Pump Centre Marion Bakker Netherlands Enterprise Agency Marco Baresi Turboden Pascal Barthe Ministry for Energy Transition (France) Aurélie Beauvais Euroheat & Power Veerle Beelaerts European Heating Industry (EHI) Stefano Bellò Assoclima Antonio Bouza US Department of Energy Susanne Buscher Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (Germany) Tomas Caha Sako CZ Emmanuel Chabut EDF Alberto Coronas Universitat Rovira i Virgili (Spain) Marco Dall Ombra Assoclima Bianca De Farias Letti Climate Change Committee (UK) Raymond Decorvet MAN Energy Solutions Stefano Demattè Ariston Naoko Doi Institute Of Energy Economics, Japan John Dulac Saint‐Gobain Thomas Fleckl Austrian Institute of Technology Duncan Gibb Regulatory Assistance Project Monique Goyens BEUC Joan Groizard Institute for the Diversification and Saving of Energy (Spain) Benjamin Haas Engie IEA. CC BY 4.0. Acknowledgements 7 Caroline Hagelund Stignor Research Institute of Sweden, Heat Pump Centre Christian Hüttl Siemens Energy Taku Inamura Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan) Nicolas Jensen Bosch Andrej Jentsch IEA DHC TCP Nigel Jollands European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Arno Kaschl European Commission (DG Climate Action) Paul Kenny Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment (Ireland) Stephan Kolb Viessmann Sanjeev Kumar EGEC Pawel Lachman Port PC Rebecca Lamas European University Institute Francisco Laverón Simavilla Iberdrola Christian Maaß Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (Germany) Silvia Madeddu Schneider Electric Josephine Maguire Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland Tom Marsik National Renewable Energy Laboratory Nick Meeten Applied Energy Vincent Minier Schneider Electric Masashige Morishita Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan) Thomas Nowak European Heat Pump Association Karl Ochsner sen. Ochsner Heat Pumps Alan Pears RMIT University (Australia) Eloi Piel Euroheat & Power Maurizio Pieve Italian Agency for New Technologies, Energy & Sustainable Economic Development Reinhard Radermacher University of Maryland (US) Stephan Renz IEA HPT TCP Rowena Rodrigues GlenDimplex Hugo Sancho Ministry for Energy Transition (France) Bans Sanli Permanent Delegation of Türkiye to the OECD Wolf‐Peter Schill German Institute for Economic Research Andreas Scholz Data Ahead Peter Schossig Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems IEA. CC BY 4.0. 8 World Energy Outlook | Special Report Jas Singh World Bank Group Shintaro Tabuchi Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Japan Tom van Ierland European Commission (DG Climate Action) Jozefien Vanbecelaere European Heat Pump Association Uta Weiß Agora Energiewende Mark Winskel UK Energy Research Centre, University of Edinburgh Miki Yamanaka Daikin Kristian Yde Agerbo Lun Benjamin Zühlsdorf Danish Technological Institute, Energy and Climate The work reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries or of any particular funder, supporter or collaborator. None of the IEA or any funder, supporter or collaborator that contributed to this work makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the report’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the work. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to: Laura Cozzi Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France E‐mail: weo@iea.org More information about the World Energy Outlook is available at www.iea.org/weo. IEA. CC BY 4.0. Table of Contents 9 Table of Contents Foreword . 3 Acknowledgements . 5 Executive summary . 11 Introduction 15 Outlook for deploying heat pumps 17 1.1 Introduction . 18 1.2 Heating needs 21 1.3 Heat pumps in buildings 25 1.4 Industrial heat pumps . 36 1.5 Heat pumps for district heating . 41 Implications of accelerated heat pump deployment 45 2.1 Introduction . 46 2.2 Energy security 46 2.3 Electricity systems and demand flexibility 48 2.4 Energy affordability . 52 2.5 Public health and environment . 54 2.6 Job creation . 59 Barriers and solutions 63 3.1 Introduction . 64 3.2 Cost barriers 65 3.3 Non-cost hurdles to consumer adoption 74 3.4 Manufacturing constraints 78 3.5 Shortages of skilled installers 80 Annexes Annex A. Technology costs and financial support schemes 87 Annex B. Definitions 93 Annex C. References . 101 1 2 3 IEA. CC BY 4.4. Executive Summary 11 Executive Summary Heat pumps are a proven way to provide secure and sustainable heating Heat pumps, powered by low‐emissions electricity, are the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating. Heat pumps currently available on the market are three‐to‐five times more energy efficient than natural gas boilers. They reduce households’ exposure to fossil fuel price spikes, which has been made all the more urgent by the ongoing global energy crisis. Over one‐sixth of global natural gas demand is for heating in buildings – in the European Union, this number is one‐third. Many heat pumps can provide cooling, too, which eliminates the need for a separate air conditioner for the 2.6 billion people who will live in regions requiring heating and cooling by 2050. Heating in buildings is responsible for 4 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO 2 emissions annually – 10% of global emissions. Installing heat pumps instead of a fossil‐fuel‐based boilers significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions in all major heating markets, even with the current electricity generation mix— an advantage that will increase further as electricity systems decarbonise. Around 10% of space heating needs globally were met by heat pumps in 2021, but the pace of installation is growing rapidly. The share of heat pumps is comparable to that of fuel oil for heating and of other forms of electric heating but lower than the over 40% of heating reliant on gas heating and the 15% reliant on district heating. In some countries, heat pumps are already the largest source of heating. In Norway, 60% of buildings are equipped with heat pumps, with Sweden and Finland at over 40%, undercutting the argument that heat pumps are unsuitable for cold climates. Global sales grew by nearly 15% in 2021, double the average of the last decade. Growth in the European Union was around 35%, and is slated to accelerate further in light of the energy crisis, with