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How AI Can Be a Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Climate Change July 2022Table of contentS 6 The AI Opportunity 8 Mitigation 10 Adaptation and Resilience 12 Fundamentals 13 Five Key AI Applications 15 Criteria for Successful Solutions 16 Overcoming Roadblocks 18 Beyond AI 19 Join Our Call for Solutions 20 References 22 Acknowledgments 2 AI for the Planet Alliance: An Introduction 3 Executive Summary 3 AI as an Essential Tool 4 Need for Meaningful Support 5 The Challenge Ahead Report authors Hamid Maher, Managing Director and Partner at BCG and BCG GAMMA Hubertus Meinecke, Managing Director and Senior Partner, Global Leader, Climate and Sustainability Practice at BCG Damien Gromier, Founder and Co-Chair at AI for the Planet, CEO and Co-Founder at Startup Inside Mateo Garcia-Novelli, Consultant at BCG Ruth Fortmann, Senior Data Scientist at BCG GAMMA How AI Can Be a Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Climate Change 1AI FOR THE PLANET ALLIANCE AN INTRODUCTION AI for the Planet is an alliance created by Startup Inside, with Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and BCG GAMMA as knowledge partners, in collaboration with four other organizations: the AI for Good Foundation; the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO); and the UN Office of Information and Communications Technology (OICT). This unique, multidisciplinary, and diverse coalition has several core objectives: y Promote innovation in applying advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) to climate challenges, supported by global experts from academia, startups, and the public and private sectors. y Act as a global platform for identifying and prioritizing the leading tools and uses for AI in addressing the climate crisis. y Identify and champion the most promising solutions to address climate change mitigation, as well as adaptation and resilience, especially in the Global South, giving the solutions visibility and recognition. y Ensure impact at scale through concrete and measurable actions such as building access to funding and to practitioners on the ground. y Facilitate the development of networks among project teams, investors, and experts in the field— including startups, corporations, and the public sector. This alliance is looking for teams and ideas that have the power to disrupt the climate crisis and make a meaningful difference by using advanced analytics and AI. We encourage all interested parties to participate in our first call for solutions, including proposals at any stage of maturity if ready for a first pilot (at minimum) and from any sector, whether private, public, academic, or nonprofit. We will tailor support for each solution chosen to its specific needs, ranging from customized commercial or technical support to investor relationships and network development. Throughout this report, we use the term “AI” to refer to artificial intelligence and advanced analytics, defined as the use of sophisticated data analysis techniques such as machine learning algorithms and data engineering. How AI Can Be a Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Climate Change 2EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The changing climate will have a major impact on environmental, social, political, and economic systems around the globe. We are already experiencing many of its environmental effects, from more intense droughts to more destructive storms. Mitigation of climate change—along with adaptation and resilience—is therefore critical, including efforts to achieve net- zero emissions by 2050 and to prepare for the consequences of climate change and minimize the resulting harm. AI AS AN ESSENTIAL TOOL Advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (a pairing that we will refer to in this report simply as “AI”) are tools uniquely positioned to help manage these complex issues. A BCG survey conducted in May 2022 found that 87% of global public- and private-sector leaders who are responsible for climate or AI topics believe that AI is a useful tool in the fight against climate change, and 43% of these leaders say that their organizations can envision using AI to help achieve their climate goals. (See the sidebar “Survey Methodology.”) Three areas of application are particularly relevant: y Mitigation. AI can be employed to help mitigate the climate crisis through the measurement of emissions at both the macro and micro levels, through the reduction of emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) effects, and through the removal of existing emissions from the atmosphere. In BCG’s experience, for example, AI can be used to help reduce GHG emissions by an amount equal to 5% to 10% of an organization’s carbon footprint, or a total 2.6 to 5.3 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) if scaled globally. y Adaptation and Resilience. AI can be applied in boosting adaptation and resilience capacity, in part through improved hazard projections of regionalized long-term effects (such as sea- level rise) or extreme events (such as hurricanes or droughts). These efforts also include the management of vulnerability and exposure, by such means as developing infrastructure that minimizes the impact of climate hazards. y Fundamentals. AI can also be used to bolster climate research and modeling; climate finance and analytics; and education, nudging, and behavior change (such as in the form of recommendations for environmentally friendly purchases). Within each of these uses, AI can be employed as part of five key tasks: to gather and complete complex data sets on emissions, climate impact, and future projections; to strengthen planning and decision making; to optimize processes; to support collaborative ecosystems; and to encourage climate-positive behaviors. In these ways, it can help stakeholders—from businesses and governments to NGOs and investors—pursue a more informed and data-driven course, while offering them opportunities to create meaningful change in this critical moment. How AI Can Be a Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Climate Change 3NEED FOR MEANINGFUL SUPPORT User friendliness is critical if AI solutions are to gain widespread adoption, regardless of whether they are developed for corporations, governments, or the general public. They need to be readily accessible, offer tangible benefits to the user, and provide clear information to guide user action. In some areas—such as emissions measurement and the monitoring of natural carbon sinks—AI solutions are well- established and ready for broad application, but most existing AI-related climate change solutions are scattered, difficult to access, and lack the resources to scale. Even among public- and private-sector leaders engaged in climate or AI topics, 78% say that a lack of AI expertise is a clear obstacle to their organization’s efforts to use AI to combat climate change, 77% blame a lack of AI solutions, and 67% point to a lack of confidence in AI-related data and analysis. AI solutions need much more meaningful support than they currently receive, including access to capital investments, informed decision makers, and trained practitioners. In addition, today’s AI research— predominantly directed by research institutes and corporations in the Global North—risks neglecting the needs of the Global South, where climate change is likely to disproportionately affect many countries. Accomplishing these ends will require the following: y Capacity Building. Training and reskilling can ensure that civil servants, private sector leaders, and other stakeholders use and interpret AI solutions effectively in critical contexts. A willingness to overcome vendor lock-in is also essential to ensure that users can deploy promising solutions at scale. y Resources and Networks. Financial support can bridge the gap between academic research and at-scale deployment, and connections to policymakers and corporate leaders can help boost awareness and adoption. In addition, sharing knowledge on best practices and promising applications can help ensure that solutions are ready for government and corporate deployment at scale. All such resources and networks are especially valuable for solutions that address the needs of the Global South. y Confidence and Trust. Given AI’s complexity and the associated risks of bias or unethical behavior, whether intentional or unintentional, AI users must earn the confidence of leaders. To do so, they should focus on such key areas as the quality and granularity of the underlying data and the interpretability of the analysis conducted. Despite its promise, AI cannot be used to solve the climate crisis in isolation. Rather, it is one of many essential tools for addressing this global challenge. Individuals, communities, and organizations engaged in combating the climate crisis—regardless of their formal role in AI or climate topics—should therefore consider how other established and emerging technologies can help and should assist in removing obstacles to scale for those technologies as well. In this report, we provide an overview of the potential uses of AI in combating climate change, and we examine the key roadblocks that are preventing AI solutions from achieving impact at scale. Survey Methodology The original quantitative findings presented in this report are based on a BCG Climate AI survey conducted in May 2022, in which BCG reached out to 1,005 global private- and public- sector leaders with decision-making authority on AI or climate-change initiatives at their organizations. Most respondents had authority over both topics. Respondents represented private- or public-sector organizations with at least 1,000 employees or at least $100 million in global annual revenues. The survey sample covered 14 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, the UK, and the US. Survey questions asked respondents for their views on the use of advanced analytics and AI to fight climate change, as well as on organizational obstacles to such efforts. How AI Can Be a Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Climate Change 4THE CHALLENGE AHEAD Climate change is already having a major impact on environmental, social, and economic systems as global temperatures rise, droughts worsen, and storms become more severe. It is creating major shifts in physical risks—from chronic risks such as sea-level rise to acute risks such as wildfires—and affecting every area of the world. And it is engendering new and complex challenges for policymakers, corporate executives, and other leaders everywhere. If we are to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in average global temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, we must achieve rapid, deep, and in most cases immediate emissions reductions in all sectors, according to a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) titled Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Such reductions call for substantial mitigation efforts, including the attainment of global net-zero emissions by 2050. The more—and the sooner—we reduce and remove GHG emissions, the fewer challenges we will face over the coming decades as we deal with the risks and impact of climate change. But minimizing the harm resulting from climate change also entails increasing our efforts at adaptation and resilience across multiple time frames, from immediate crisis response to long-term planning. Furthermore, effective climate action in support of mitigation, as well as of adaptation and resilience, requires complementary efforts in research, finance, and education. This report primarily focuses on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 17 (Partnership for the Goals), as the AI for the Planet Alliance is expressly dedicated to promoting collaborative action to address the climate crisis. As with most other climate discussions, however, the themes touched on here allude to many other SDGs as well, including SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). Wherever possible, AI for the Planet seeks to advance all SDGs through its activities. The AI for the Planet Alliance is grateful for the leadership and momentum built in the climate-AI space by Climate Change AI (CCAI), Global Partnership on AI (GPAI), the Coalition for Digital Environmental Sustainability (CODES), and others. This report— like the alliance’s work overall—draws on insights from these initiatives and attempts to advance these contributions further. In particular, the alliance is committed to the three strategic shifts outlined in the CODES action plan launched in June 2022: enable alignment, through networks and sharing of best practices; mitigate negative impacts, by promoting responsible AI; and accelerate innovation, by helping bring effective climate AI solutions to scale. How AI Can Be a Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Climate Change 5THE AI OPPORTUNITY AI is in a unique position as a tool to help manage these complex issues. In a global survey conducted by BCG in May 2022, 87% of public- and private-sector climate and AI leaders said they view AI as a helpful tool in the fight against climate change. Furthermore, 43% said they can envision using AI for their organization’s own climate change efforts—confirming the high level of interest among such leaders in the technology’s potential to generate positive change. (See Exhibit 1.) Because of AI’s unique capacity to gather, complete, and interpret large, complex data sets on emissions, climate impact, and more, the technology can be used to support all stakeholders in taking a more informed and data-driven approach to combating carbon emissions and building a greener society. It can also be employed to help reweight global climate efforts toward the most at-risk regions. (See the sidebar “Addressing the Needs of the Global South.”) As such, the use of AI offers an opportunity to make meaningful change at this critical moment, whether through mitigation, through adaptation and resilience, or through the fundamentals underpinning all climate efforts. (See Exhibit 2.) Exhibit 2 - Framework for Using AI in Combating Climate Change Sources: BCG project experience; Climate Change AI, “Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning”; Global Partnership on AI, “Climate Change and AI: Recommendations for Government Action.” Note: GHG = greenhouse gas; IoT = Internet of Things. Exhibit 1 - Public- and Private-Sector Leaders Who Oversee Climate and AI Topics Support Using AI to Fight Climate Change Source: BCG Climate AI survey, May 2022. Note: All respondents have decision-making authority over climate or AI topics at their organizations. Respondents were asked if their organization has a “clear vision for how advanced analytics and AI can be used in climate change efforts.“ “Public sector” excludes academia. of respondents say t