煤炭净零转型：快速、安全和以人为本的变革战略（英）-IEA.pdf

World Energy Outlook Special Report Coal in Net Zero Transitions Strategies for rapid, secure and people-centred changeThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 3 1 member countries, 1 1 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand UkraineForeword 3 Foreword As the energy sector’s single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, coal is at the heart of the global conversation on energy and climate. All scenarios modelled by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the future of energy supply and demand that are consistent with international climate goals feature a rapid decline in global coal emissions. Without such a decline, it will be impossible to avoid severe impacts from a changing climate. As our new analysis in this World Energy Outlook Special Report makes clear, more than 95% of today’s global coal consumption occurs in countries that have pledged to achieve net zero emissions. At the same time, however, the data show that the world is far from heading decisively in that direction. Global coal use and emissions have essentially plateaued at a high level, with no definitive signs of an imminent reduction. In fact, coal use in some countries has seen a modest uptick as a result of the current global energy crisis. Even if this is temporary, as our analysis suggests, it is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero – especially the narrow‐but‐ achievable goal of doing so by 2050. The current situation in energy markets underscores the huge challenges of reducing emissions while maintaining energy security. Renewable energy options such as solar and wind are the most cost‐effective new sources of electricity generation in most markets, but despite their impressively rapid growth in recent years, they have not yet brought about a decline in coal’s global emissions. Reducing global coal emissions while ensuring reliable and affordable energy supplies and tackling the social consequences of this change will require a dedicated and determined policy effort by governments. Multiple challenges remain. In many countries, the way in which markets and contracts have been designed mean that coal plants are effectively shielded from competition. In the industrial sector, accelerated innovation is crucial to bring to market the technologies needed to drive down coal emissions in key areas such as steel and cement. Building up clean energy assets to replace coal is absolutely essential to reach environmental goals and support economic growth while safeguarding energy security. At the same time, carefully designed policies and government coordination with other stakeholders such as industry and labour organisations are fundamental to enable workers and communities to adjust to changes affecting the coal industry, which has deep links to jobs and economic development in coal‐producing regions. These challenges are especially significant in developing economies where electricity demand is growing rapidly, coal is often the incumbent fuel for electricity generation, and industrial uses of coal are on the rise. This is one of the reasons why, if the international community fails to manage coal transitions appropriately, I see a real risk of fractures emerging between some advanced and developing economies, which could lead to damaging geopolitical rifts globally. There are some encouraging signs of international collaboration in the discussions on Just Energy Transition Partnerships with South Africa, Indonesia and other major emerging economies. But there’s much more to be done to match funding with needs and to make progress on implementation. IEA. CC BY 4.0. 4 World Energy Outlook | Special Report This Special Report is designed to provide pragmatic, real‐world guidance on how policy makers can achieve a reduction in coal emissions without harming their economies or energy security. Its analysis covers a range of policy and technology areas, including the potential for carbon capture, utilisation and storage. And it offers recommendations to improve financing for the phasing down of coal and to address the social and employment aspects of this transition. The report makes it clear that there is no one single approach to putting coal emissions into decline but a range of approaches tailored to national circumstances. The report benefitted not only from the IEA’s unparalleled energy data and modelling capabilities but also the input of a High‐Level Advisory Group of global energy, climate and finance leaders that I convened earlier this year. This advisory group was chaired by Michael R. Bloomberg, the UN Secretary‐General’s Special Envoy for Climate Ambition and Solutions, and co‐chaired by Arifin Tasrif, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia, which currently holds the G20 Presidency, and Teresa Ribera Rodríguez, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge of Spain. I would like to thank the chair, co‐chairs and all the members of the advisory group for the important perspectives and strategic insights they provided for the report. The IEA is deeply committed to supporting governments around the world as they navigate the current global energy crisis and seek to tackle climate change. I believe this report will be a valuable tool in efforts to design policies that support secure, affordable and fair transitions to clean energy. In particular, the social and employment aspects of these transitions is an important and expanding area of work for the IEA, as reflected by our Global Commission on People‐Centred Clean Energy Transitions, our Clean Energy Labour Council and our World Energy Employment report. I’m very grateful for the dedication and expertise of the IEA team who produced this Special Report under the exemplary leadership of my colleagues Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould. I strongly thank and commend them for this vital contribution to the international energy and climate conversation at such a pivotal moment. Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency IEA. CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements 5 Acknowledgements This study was prepared by the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks in co‐operation with other directorates and offices of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook, and Tim Gould, Chief Energy Economist and Head of Division for Energy Supply and Investment Outlooks. Principal IEA authors of the report include: Thomas Spencer (coal transitions), Carlos Fernández Alvarez (coal), Brent Wanner (power), Paul Hugues (industry), Peter Levi (industry), Christophe McGlade (supply), Peter Zeniewski (investment) and Tanguy de Bienassis (investment). Main IEA contributors include: Yasmine Arsalane (power), Blandine Barreau (just transition policies), Simon Bennett (hydrogen, energy technologies), Justina Bodláková (historical coal transitions), Olivia Chen (employment), Yunyou Chen (power), Leonardo Collina (industry), Daniel Crow (air pollution), Davide D Ambrosio (data science, power), Amrita Dasgupta (critical minerals), Tomás de Oliveira Bredariol (critical minerals, methane), Darlain Edeme (geospatial analysis), Eric Fabozzi (power), Mathilde Fajardy (geospatial analysis), Pablo González (investment and finance), Emma Gordon (investment and finance), Alexandre Gouy (industry), Louis Hennequin (just transition policies), Pablo Hevia‐Koch (investment and finance), Bruno Idini (project management), George Kamiya (critical minerals), Hyeji Kim (affordability), Martin Kueppers (industry), Rachael Moore (carbon capture utilisation and storage), Faidon Papadimoulis (industry), Diana Perez Sanchez (industry), Ryszard Pospiech (coal supply modelling), Nasim Pour (carbon capture utilisation and storage), Max Schoenfisch (power), Tiffany Vass (industry), and Wonjik Yang (data visualisation). Other contributors include: Caleigh Andrews, Michael Drtil, Leonie Staas and Anthony Vautrin. Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility. Debra Justus was the copy‐editor. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and numerous colleagues within the IEA. In particular, Mary Warlick, Keisuke Sadamori, Alessandro Blasi, Paolo Frankl, Masatoshi Suguira, Sara Moarif, Brian Motherway, Rebecca Gaghen and Timur Gül. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report and website materials, particularly Jad Mouawad, Curtis Brainard, Jon Custer, Hortense De Roffignac, Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin, Merve Erdem, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain‐Semelin, Julie Puech, Clara Vallois, Gregory Viscusi and Therese Walsh. IEA’s Office of the Legal Counsel, Office of Management and Administration and Energy Data Centre provided assistance throughout the preparation of the report. The work benefited from the support and co‐operation provided through the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Programme. IEA. CC BY 4.0.6 World Energy Outlook | Special Report High Level Advisory Group The High Level Advisory Group provided strategic guidance for this report. The opinions and judgements expressed in this report are solely those of the IEA, but we benefited greatly from the time and expertise of the distinguished Group members: Chair: Michael R. Bloomberg UN Special Envoy for Climate Ambitions and Solutions and Founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies Vice‐chair: Arifin Tasrif Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia, current holder of G20 Presidency Vice‐chair: Teresa Ribera Rodríguez Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge of Spain Patrick Graichen State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Germany Jonathan Wilkinson Minister of Natural Resources, Canada Kadri Simson Commissioner for Energy, European Union Daniel Mminele Head of the Presidential Climate Finance Task Team, South Africa Ahmed Saeed Vice President of the Asian Development Bank Mafalda Duarte CEO of the Climate Investment Funds Aditya Mittal CEO of ArcelorMittal Gary Nagle CEO of Glencore Gurdeep Singh Chairman and Managing Director of NTPC Lei Zhang CEO of Envision Group Peer reviewers Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Rafayil Abbasov Asian Development Bank Saleh Abdurrahman Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia Doug Arent National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United States Florian Ausfelder DECHEMA Varun Bhargava ArcelorMittal Abhishek Bhaskar Climate Investment Funds Mick Buffier Glencore IEA. CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements 7 Koben Calhoun Rocky Mountain Institute Xavier Chen Beijing Energy Club Rebecca Collyer European Climate Foundation Russell Conklin US Department of Energy David Elzinga Asian Development Bank Andrew Fikkers Glencore Cody Finke Brimstone Energy Nikki Fisher Thungela Lauren Flanagan Envision Group David Fritsch US Energy Information Administration Michael Hackethal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Germany Yuya Hasegawa Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Lilly Höhn Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany Li Jiangtao State Grid Energy Research Institute, China Shiva Prashanth Kasina NTPC Francisco Laveron Iberdrola Peter Morris Minerals Council of Australia Isabel Murray Department of Natural Resources, Canada Lauri Myllyvirta Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air Andi Novianto Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Indonesia Pak Yongduk Korea Energy Economics Institute Andrew Purvis World Steel Mauricio Riveros The Carbon Trust Justine Roche World Economic Forum Ana Belén Sánchez Institute for the Just Transition, Spain Hans‐Wilhem Schiffer World Energy Council Jesse Scott Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (German Institute for Economic Research) Christine Shearer Global Energy Monitor Chris Stephens The Carbon Trust Rahul Tongia Centre for Social and Economic Progess Adair Turner Energy Transitions Commission Tom Van Ierland DG for Climate Action, European Commission Michael Waldron Independent consultant Ailun Yang Bloomberg Philanthropies IEA. CC BY 4.0. 8 World Energy Outlook | Special Report This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to: Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France E‐mail: weo@iea.org Web: www.iea.org IEA. CC BY 4.0.Table of Contents 9 Table of Contents Foreword . 3 Acknowledgements . 5 Executive summary . 13 Coal in clean energy transitions 21 1.1 Why focus on coal emissions? . 22 1.2 A new context for the net zero emissions transition 23 1.2.1 Coal and energy security . 23 1.2.2 Global coal demand has been stable for a decade 27 1.2.3 Emerging market and developing economies dominate coal use . 28 1.2.4 Coal use is deeply embedded in a few sectors 30 1.3 Coal‐dependent countries and regions . 32 1.3.1 Countries . 32 1.3.2 Regions 34 1.4 Outlook for coal demand and emissions . 36 1.4.1 Coal demand 37 1.4.2 Coal with CCUS 39 1.4.3 Coal supply and trade 42 1.4.4 Greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution . 45 Coal in electricity generation 53 2.1 Introduction . 54 2.2 Overview . 55 2.3 Recent policy developments and commitments . 57 2.4 Cease construction of unabated coal plants . 59 2.5 Risks of locked‐in CO2 emissions from existing coal plants 61 2.6 Tackle emissions f