世界各国二氧化碳排放报告2022(英)-JRC.pdf

CO2 emissions of all world countries JRC/IEA/PBL 2022 Report Crippa M., Guizzardi D., Banja M., Solazzo E., Muntean M., Schaaf E., Pagani F., Monforti-Ferrario F., Olivier, J.G.J., Quadrelli, R., Risquez Martin, A., Taghavi-Moharamli, P., Grassi, G., Rossi, S., Oom, D., Branco, A., San-Miguel, J., Vignati, E. ISSN 1831-9424 EUR 31182 EN 2022 Contents Abstract .1 Acknowledgements .2 Executive summary .3 1 Introduction .8 2 Global fossil CO2 emissions from 1970 until 2021 .9 3 Global CO2 from LULUCF from 1990 until 2020 .14 4 Conclusions 17 References 18 List of abbreviations and definitions .20 List of figures .21 List of tables 22 Annexes .23 Annex 1. Bottom-up methodology for the CO2 emissions compilation 23 Annex 2. Methodology for the estimation of emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) 26 Annex 3. Methodology for the estimation of emissions from large scale biomass burning .28 Annex 4. Construction of country fact-sheets 30 Annex 5. Fossil CO2 emissions for the world, international transport and the EU27.31 Annex 6: Fossil CO2 emissions by country .36 Annex 7. CO2 emissions and removals from LULUCF sector by macro-regions . 245 Disclaimer . 256 i Abstract This report presents the fossil CO2 emission time series of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) from 1970 until 2021, together with CO2 emissions and removals from land use and forestry for period 1990 to 2020. For the first time, the report uses IEA calculated fossil-fuel CO2 emissions directly where appropriate, rather than calculating them from the underlying energy use statistics, to ensure greater coherence with the IEA data. The report contributes to the Paris Agreement process with an independent and quantitative view of global emissions. 1 Acknowledgements This booklet was produced with input from many colleagues, gathered over several years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) energy use statistics and the corresponding CO2 emissions are fundamental to the EDGAR database and the authors would like to thank IEA for the continuing collaboration. The authors would also like to thank United States Geological Survey (USGS) (R. Schulte, L. Apodaca, A. Hatfield), the International Fertiliser Association (IFA) (L. Cross), World Steel Association, BP plc, and the Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR), Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines and U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), for the provision of data. The authors are grateful to the Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) (V. Pollard, B. Goni-Ros, R. Lake, X. Seront, O. Juvyns, R. Colditz, S. Kay) for their reviews and guidance. An extra thanks to J. Wilson, and the anonymous reviewers for their thorough reviews and proofreading. Authors Crippa, M., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy Guizzardi, D., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy Banja, M., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy Solazzo, E., UniSystems , Milan (Italy), Muntean, M., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy Schaaf, E., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy Pagani F., GFT Italia S.r.l., VIA SILE 18 / floor 4, 20139 Milano, Italy Monforti-Ferrario, F., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy Olivier, J.G.J., PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Bureau, Den Hague, The Netherlands Quadrelli, R., International Energy Agency, Paris, France Risquez Martin, A., International Energy Agency, Paris, France Taghavi-Moharamli, P., International Energy Agency, Paris, France Grassi, G., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit D.1., Ispra, Italy Rossi, S., Arcadia SIT, Italy Oom, D., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit E.1., Ispra, Italy Branco, A., ARCADIA SIT s.r.l, Vigevano (PV), Italy San-Miguel, J., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit E.1., Ispra, Italy Vignati, E., EC, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Unit C.5., Ispra, Italy 2 Executive summary Policy context The European Union has set ambitious objectives as far as climate change is concerned. In the context of the European Green Deal1 and European Climate Law2, the European Union currently has a target of reducing its net domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels and to become climate neutral (net zero greenhouse gas emissions) by 2050. On the 14th of July 2021, the European Commission adopted a package of legislative proposals (known as the “Fit for 55” package3) covering climate, energy, land use, transport and taxation that, when adopted and implemented, should achieve the 2030 GHG emissions reduction target. All Parties to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to prepare emission reduction pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Under the transparency framework of the Paris Agreement, all Parties have to report bottom-up inventories of national greenhouse gas emissions and track progress towards the implementation and achievement of their NDCs. This reporting is to be contained in Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), which are first due at latest end of 2024. Parties may submit their inventory reports as part of the BTR or separately, and Annex-I countries must continue submitting inventories annually. Bottom-up national emission inventories are an essential component of reporting and tracking progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, national inventory reports are not yet available for all countries and years. In addition, they are dependent on individual national reporting processes and methodological choices, they can present data gaps for specific sectors and currently, except for Annex I parties, there is no obligation to include long-term series of emissions up to the most recent year. The European Commission’s in-house Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) offers an alternative that complements national inventories and has the advantage of producing timely emission estimates that are comparable across countries. EDGAR depends on several sources of international statistics for the underpinning data. Foremost among these is the International Energy Agency (IEA). To harmonise global CO2 emission estimates, for the first time this booklet already incorporates IEA CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion sources and represents the first IEA- EDGAR CO2 emission dataset. EDGAR completes the global picture with a time-series for each country, contributing to enhanced transparency and providing an additional source with which national and global estimates can be compared. This report focuses on the update to most recent years of the emission time series, including emissions from anthropogenic sectors up to 2021 and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) up to 2020. For all countries, including the EU and its 27 Member States4, EDGAR emissions may differ from official national inventories due to differences in data sources, methodologies, and approaches, although both are, in principle, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for GHG reporting. However, the overall EU27 CO2 emissions reduction trend is similar to that reported by the EU to the UNFCCC even though the figures do not match completely. Key conclusions This booklet includes time series of anthropogenic fossil CO25 from 1970 to 2021 together with estimates of CO2 emissions and removals stemming from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, which are discussed for the EU27 and world macro-regional levels for the years from 1990 to 2020. (1) See the Communication from the European Commission on the European Green Deal: COM(2019) 640 final. (2) Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32021R1119 (3) https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/european-green-deal/delivering-european-green-deal_en (4) Hereafter EU27. (5) In this booklet, fossil CO2 emissions include emissions from fossil fuel combustion (coal, oil and gas), from fossil fuel use (combustion, flaring), industrial processes (cement, steel, chemicals and urea) and product use; no short-cycle carbon CO2 emissions are included for any sector. 3 The most recent data for CO2 emissions in 2021 clearly show a rebound in emissions compared to 2020, which was strongly affected by COVID-19 globally: global CO2 emissions in 2021 increased by 5.3% compared to 20206 and were just 0.36% smaller than in 2019. When considering the top six emitting economies, from a longer-term perspective, fossil CO2 emissions in the EU27 showed the largest relative decrease among top emitters and were 27.3% lower in 2021 than in 1990. Russian CO2 emissions follows considerably decreasing by 18.9% between 1990 and 2021. Again, among the top emitters, both the United States and Japan had 2021 fossil CO2 emissions below 1990 levels, although by a lesser extent (by 6.2% and 7.4%, respectively). Conversely, fossil CO2 emissions of the emerging economies of China and India remained well above their 1990 levels being respectively 5.1 and 4.4 times larger in 2021 than in 1990. Globally, LULUCF has acted as a fairly stable net sink for CO2 emissions since 2000. In 2020, we estimate that this sector was a net sink of about 3.9 Gt CO2, equivalent to 10.9% of global fossil CO2 emissions. The large variation between the estimates from different global models, as reflected in the IPCC Reports (net emissions of about 5 Gt CO2/yr, can be largely explained by differences in the definition of what is meant by “anthropogenic” CO2 removals. Global deforestation was responsible for net CO2 emissions of 4.0 Gt CO2 in 2020, equivalent to 11.2% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In the EU27, LULUCF in 2020 was a net sink of about 0.3 Gt CO2 emissions, approximately half the magnitude of the sink in the 1990s. Main findings Since the beginning of the 21st century, global fossil CO2 emissions have grown steadily in comparison to the three previous decades, mainly due to the increase in fossil CO2 emissions by China, India, and other emerging economies. The COVID-19 crisis slowed down the global economy in the first half of 2020, resulting in an interruption in the global growth in CO2 emissions, followed by a rebound in 2021. Emission estimates for 2021 from EDGAR show that global anthropogenic fossil CO2 emissions increased by 5.3% from 2020, at 37.86 Gt CO2, just 0.36% below the 37.99 Gt CO2 emissions registered in 2019. Figure 1. Fossil CO2 emissions of the major emitting economies, 1970-2021 (in Gt) Source: JRC, 2022 (6) All calculations presented in the report do not consider that the year 2020 was a leap year. Evaluations including leap year analysis for 2020 are presented in Crippa et al., 2021. 4 In 2021, China, the United States, the EU27, India, Russia and Japan remained the world’s largest CO2 emitters. Together they account for 49.2% of global population, 62.4% of global Gross Domestic Product (World Bank, 2022), 66.4% of global fossil fuel consumption (BP, 20227) and 67.8% of global fossil CO2 emissions. All six increased their fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 compared to 2020, with India and Russia having the largest increases in relative terms (10.5% and 8.1%, respectively). In 2021, the EU27’s fossil CO2 emissions were 27.3% lower than in 1990 at 2.77 Gt, representing 7.3% of global emissions and equivalent to 6.25 t CO2/cap in per-capita terms. Among other countries that count for more than 1% of the total global CO2 emissions, only Australia reduced its fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 relative to 2020, by 2.4% with an emission intensity of its economy that has decreased in the last decade with an annual average of 3.2%. Conversely, Brazil had the largest increase of 11.0% compared with 2020. Over the last decade the emission intensity of its economy has increased with an annual average of 0.1%. Emissions from international aviation and shipping, which together represented 2.9% of global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021, increased by 15.4% and 4.9 %, respectively, between 2020 and 2021. CO2 emissions from international aviation decreased by almost half between 2019 and 2020, partially rebounding in 2021, when they account for 63% of the 2019 value. Concerning international shipping, the increase in CO2 emissions was almost twice the 2020 reduction (in absolute terms) in CO2 emissions, with emissions in 2021 being 2.2% higher than in 2019. Table 1 shows CO2 emissions and GDP PPP8 changes in 2021 compared with 2020 for the whole world and the largest economies, including the EU27. Table 1 also illustrates the comparison of CO2 intensity of economy (defined as CO2 emissions per unit of GDP PPP) between 2021 and 2020, 2021 and 2019, 2020 and 2019. All the reported economies had increases in GDP PPP in 2021. It can be noticed that in the countries where the recovery pace of GDP PPP in 2021 was higher than the recovery of emissions, a decrease of the CO2 intensity of economy9 was observed and vice-versa. Table 1. GDP PPP and CO2 emissions intensity of economy (t CO2/k USD) in 2021 and their compared to 202010, change of CO2 emissions intensity for period 2020-2021, 2019-2020, and 2021-2019. Source: JRC, 2022 It should be noted that year-to-year change in emission is estimated with a degree of accuracy of ±0.5% (Olivier et al., 2016), when based on robust statistical activity data (e.g., IEA energy balance data, or CO2 emissions from (7) Defined as the sum of all coal, liquid fossil fuel and natural gas primary energy consumption. (8) GDP: Gross Domestic Product GDP, expressed in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (constant 2017 international $, USD). The difference with GDP nominal consists in the fact that GDP PPP is adjusted for the effects of inflation and is at current market prices. GDP PPP data are mainly sourced from World Bank (WB, 2022). For the following countries GDP data used in this report are from the IEAGDP (expressed as billion USD, 2015 prices and PPPs): CUB, ERI, GIB, PRK, SDN, SYR, VEN and YEM (IEA, 2022). (9) In the column of CO2 intensity (in terms of GDP PPP) the following colour code for circles is applied when comparing the 2021 and 2020 data: Red for “increase” and, Green (with check mark) for “decrease”. (10) Relative changes versus 2020 do not consider that 2020 was a leap year. This is applied in all inputs that refer to year 2020. G D P PP P c h a n g e Em i s s i o n s c h a n g e Em i s s i o n s / G D P PP P 2 0 2 1 -2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 -2 0 2 0 2021 2 0 2 1 -2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 -2 0 1 9 2 0 2 1 -2 0 1 9 W o r l d 131682 5 . 7 5 % 5 . 3 % 0 . 2 8 1 -0 . 4 % -2 . 3 % -2 . 8 % C h i n a 24861 8 . 1 1 % 4 . 3 % 0 . 5 0 1 -3 . 5 % -0 . 7 % -4 . 2 % U n i te d Sta te s 20932 5 . 6 7 % 6 . 5 % 0 . 2 2 7 0 . 7 % -7 . 8 % -7 . 1 % EU 2 7 19251 5 . 3 8 % 6 . 5 % 0 . 1 4 1 1 . 1 % -5 . 2 % -4 . 2 % Indi