东盟可再生能源展望：走向区域能源转型 第2版（英）-IRENA.pdf

RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR ASEAN TOWARDS A REGIONAL ENERGY TRANSITION 2 ND EDITION© IRENA and ASEAN Centre for Energy, Jakarta. ISBN: 978-92-9260-467-7 Report available for download: www.irena.org/publications. For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org About ACE Established on 1 January 1999, the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) is an intergovernmental organisation within the ASEAN structure representing the 10 ASEAN Member States (AMS) interests in the energy sector. It is guided by a Governing Council composed of Senior Officials on Energy from each AMS and a representative from the ASEAN Secretariat as an ex-officio member. Hosted by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia, the office is located in Jakarta. For more information, visit www.aseanenergy.org Acknowledgements This report was prepared by IRENA in close collaboration with the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), with the support of the ASEAN Secretariat and engagement from ASEAN Member States, including: Ministry of Energy Brunei Darussalam, Ministry of Mines and Energy Cambodia, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Indonesia, Ministry of Energy and Mines Lao PDR, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Malaysia, Ministry of Electricity and Energy Myanmar, Department of Energy Philippines, Energy Market Authority Singapore, Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency Thailand, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade Viet Nam. Brunei Darussalam: Abdul Matiin Bin Hj Md Kasim, Hadinah Yahaya, Shaikh Mohamad Faiz Bin Shaikh Hj Fadilah. Cambodia: Chiphong Sarasy. Indonesia: Andriah Feby Misna, Tony Susandy, Elis Heviati, Senda Kanam, Suharyati, Jamaludin Lastiko, Edwin Nugraha Putra, Herian Atma. Lao PDR: Boualom Saysanavong, Phouttavanh Phommachan. Malaysia: Esther Lew. Myanmar: Win Myint. Philippines: Mylene C. Capongcol, Marissa P. Cerezo, Michael O. Sinocruz. Thailand: Lumyai Mungpangklang, Narapandra Yamalee, Prasert Sinsukprasert, Siriyapohn Petchamli, Sutthasini Glawgitigul, Watcharin Boonyarit, Yaowateera Achawangkul. Singapore: Latha Ganesh, Agnes Koh, Brian Tham, Lucius Tan, Lee Seng Wai, Kim Jin, Haolin Jia, Lindy Tan, Yingxian Huang, Sophie Gan, Lionel Choo, Jia Yong Leong, Wai Ying Ho, Guang Yong Ong, Christopher Gan, Wenkang Wong, Yvonne See, Zahin Amrad. Viet Nam: Nguyen Ninh Hai, Nguyen Hoang Linh. ASEAN Centre for Energy: Septia Buntara Supendi, Monika Merdekawati, Zulfikar Yurnaidi. ASEAN Secretariat: Marie Gail de Sagon, Muhammad Indra Wahyudin. The report was authored by Adam Adiwinata, Zainab Omolade Ajibade, Seán Collins, Maisarah Abdul Kadir, Raul Miranda, Walter Sanchez and Nicholas Wagner under the guidance of Dolf Gielen (Director, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre), Ricardo Gorini (Senior Programme Officer, Renewable Energy Roadmaps), and Emanuele Taibi (ex-IRENA). Additional valuable comments and suggestions were provided by IRENA colleagues Ahmed Badr, Badariah Yosiyana, Bishal Parajuli, Diala Hawila, Elizabeth Press, Emanuele Bianco, Francis Field, Gurbuz Gonul, Gondia Sokhna Seck, Herib Blanco, Ines Jacob, Michael Renner, Michael Taylor, Nazik Elhassan, Paul Komor, Paula Nardone, Rabia Ferroukhi, Simon Benmarraze, Stephanie Clarke, Ute Collier and Xavier Casals. The following colleagues also provided methodological and analytical support for the report: Maria Vicente Garcia, Krisly Guerra, Gayathri Prakash and Rodrigo Leme. The editor of this report was Stefanie Durbin. IRENA would like to thank the Government of Denmark for supporting IRENA with the work that formed the basis of this report. Specifics thanks go to Dorthea Damkjær, Laura Skøt, Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, Simon Fløe Nielsen, Anders Kruse, Nadeem Niwaz, Stefan Petrović, Aisma Vitina, Thomas Capral, Loui Algren. Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.TOWARDS A REGIONAL ENERGY TRANSITION | 3 RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR ASEAN TOWARDS A REGIONAL ENERGY TRANSITION 2 ND EDITION4 | RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR ASEAN FOREWORD The Southeast Asia region will see rapid economic growth in the coming decades and energy use is set to grow significantly. Today, the region stands at a crossroads. On the one hand, it can pursue a path of continued reliance on fossil fuels, most of which come from non-indigenous sources, increasing the region’s emissions and exposure to volatile and increasingly expensive global commodity markets. On the other, the region could utilise its ample, affordable, indigenous renewable energy resources to lower energy costs, reduce emissions and drive regional economic development. This second edition of the Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN was developed in collaboration the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) and the ASEAN Renewable Energy Sub-sector Network. It is guided by IRENA’s World energy transitions outlook and builds upon the first Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN, released in 2016, by incorporating a net-zero pathway and a longer-term perspective to 2050. As the region commits to ever more ambitious climate targets, including net-zero commitments, planning must begin now in earnest. While ASEAN has ambitious renewable energy goals in the near-term, the region needs to think and plan for the long-term. It has a unique opportunity to develop a sustainable energy system based on renewable energy resources that can support socioeconomic recovery and development while addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and accomplishing energy security, universalisation and affordability goals. This report provides a comprehensive renewables-focused energy pathway for the development of a cleaner and more sustainable regional energy system. It explores end-use sector electrification, the rapid expansion of renewable generation, energy efficiency solutions, the role of emerging technologies such as clean hydrogen and batteries, as well the importance of expanding regional power sector integration. It also presents sector- specific technological pathways and investment opportunities that will enrich the regional debate and help accelerate the energy transformation across ASEAN. The engagement with ASEAN Member States was crucial to the development of this outlook. We also are grateful for the support of regional organisations such as ACE, and our Danish partners, who supported this project. Accelerating the energy transition will require far-sighted choices, discipline and wise investments, backed by international co-operation and strong regional planning in ASEAN. IRENA stands ready to work with countries across ASEAN and our close regional partners, to help make the vision presented in this report a reality. Francesco La Camera Director-General, IRENATOWARDS A REGIONAL ENERGY TRANSITION | 5 FOREWORD Following the first IRENA Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN published in 2016, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) have co-developed the Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN: Towards a regional energy transition (2 nd Edition). The outlook addresses potential solutions to the looming energy crisis in the wake of geopolitical conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change by exploring how ASEAN may optimise the use of clean energy technologies, devise supportive policy measures and determine effective timelines for financing. The report discusses challenges to achieving the targets of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) Phase II: 2021–2025. These include the aspirational goals to increase the share of renewables in primary energy and total installed capacity whilst reducing energy intensity. Reflecting recent net zero pledges, this second edition also explores a pathway to expand the share of renewables in supply and end-uses as part of a just transition. This pathway could enable ASEAN to accelerate the energy transition and strengthen energy resilience through greater innovation and cooperation. The report complements the launch of ACE s flagship publication, the 7 th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7), with both studies raising concerns about regional energy security. Coal s share remains dominant in the power sector, as does oil in transportation, and ASEAN desperately needs to diversify its energy mix. On the contrary, the intermittency of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, remains an obstacle owing to the strain on the power grid. The potential of bioenergy feedstocks is not yet fully assessed or utilised, with only a 7% share of the transport fuel mix by 2020. In short, ASEAN needs to improve regional cooperation to speed up the establishment of flexible and reliable power infrastructure and the higher adoption of energy-efficient technologies through end-user electrification. In developing this report, IRENA and ACE received support from the Renewable Energy Sub-Sector Network (RE-SSN). This specialised working group consists of government officials from ten ministries of energy in ASEAN member states. We hope the findings of this study will provide insightful analysis for the consideration of RE-SSN and receive positive feedback. We also sincerely hope it will offer encouraging messages on the promise of the clean energy transition to all stakeholders, from private companies and academia to professional associations. Dr. Nuki Agya Utama Executive Director, ASEAN Centre for Energy6 | RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR ASEAN CONTENTS FIGURES, TABLES, BOXES 7 COUNTRY CODES . 11 ABBREVIATIONS . 12 KEY FINDINGS 14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16 1. INTRODUCTION .26 Focus of the report . 26 Methodology and process 27 2. THE ROADMAP FOR ASEAN 32 Current status and the PES . 32 Climate pledges 37 Renewable energy roadmap 40 Demand sectors . 48 3. POWER SECTOR58 Overview and scope 58 Power capacity and generation. 63 Power flexibility .74 4. TECHNOLOGY VIEWS 88 Electrification in buildings, industry and transport 88 Energy conservation and efficiency in residential air conditioning 90 Energy solutions for islands in the Southeast Asian region: Mini-grids and stand-alone energy systems . 91 Bioenergy 93 Hydrogen 98 Energy intensity and consumption . 103 CO 2 removal . 104 Critical materials for the energy transition and ASEAN . 104 Indonesia’s nickel production and ambitions to be Southeast Asia’s EV battery hub 107 Solar PV industrialisation opportunities 109 Energy security in the ASEAN region 109 5. INVESTMENTS, COSTS AND BENEFITS . 112 Investment needs .112 Costs and savings .115 6. ACTIONS NEEDED NOW – END‑USE SECTOR FOCUS 118 REFERENCES . 121TOWARDS A REGIONAL ENERGY TRANSITION | 7 Figure 1 Southeast Asia’s total final consumption, by scenario, 2018, 2030, 2050 . 18 Figure 2 Southeast Asia’s power capacity alternatives for 1.5-S, in 2050 19 Figure 3 Transmission lines and batteries in 2050, 1.5-S RE90 20 Figure 4 Bioenergy and hydrogen use in the end-use sectors, by scenario, 2018, 2050 21 Figure 5 E n e r g y- r e l a t e d CO 2 emissions and savings, by technology type, 2018, 1.5-S in 2030 and 2050 22 Figure 6 A S E A N c o u n t r i e s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e R E m a p a n d F l e x T o o l a n a l y s e s . 27 Figure 7 Description of the scenarios in the REmap study 28 Figure 8 REmap tools for analysis of the end-use and power sectors 30 Figure 9 Total final consumption by carrier and country, PES, 2018-2050 33 Figure 10 Annual electricity consumption per capita, PES, by country, 2020-2050 34 Figure 11 Share of population with access to clean cooking 34 Figure 12 Share of renewable power capacity and generation in ASEAN and AMS, 2020 . 35 Figure 13 ASEAN power sector capacity in the BES and PES 35 Figure 14 ASEAN power sector generation under the BES and PES . 36 Figure 15 Primary Energy Supply, PES, 2018, 2030, 2050 . 37 Figure 16 Total final consumption by scenario, 2018-2050 42 Figure 17 Power capacity and renewable share by scenario, 2018-2050 44 Figure 18 Power generation and renewable share by scenario, 2018-2050 . 45 Figure 19 Total energy-related CO 2 emissions, by scenario, 2018-2050 46 Figure 20 Building sector consumption, all scenarios, 2018-2050 . 50 Figure 21 Industry energy consumption, all scenarios, 2018-2050 . 52 Figure 22 Transport sector energy consumption, all scenarios, 2018-2050 . 55 Figure 23 International shipping bunkering demand in ASEAN, by scenario, 2018-2050 55 Figure 24 International aviation bunkering demand in ASEAN, by scenario, 2018-2050 . 56 Figure 25 REmap Toolkit overview . 60 Figure 26 ASEAN region representation with 35 nodes . 62 Figure 27 ASEAN capacity expansion, by scenario, 2018, 2030, 2050 64 Figure 28 ASEAN power sector CO 2 emissions and emissions intensity . 65 Figure 29 ASEAN transmission capacity expansion . 66 Figure 30 International line expansion along the Mekong River in the 1.5-S RE90 . 67 Figure 31 N a t i o n a l e x pans i o n o f s o l ar gen er a t i o n c apac i t y and t o t a l VR E s h ar e o f c apac i t y in the 1.5 -S RE90 in 2050 68 Figure 32 Total installed costs, capacity factors and cost of electricity by country, 2021 70 Figure 33 Timeline from PLN to retirement coal power plants to carbon neutral 72 Figure 34 S o l a r a n d w i n d V R E s h a r e i n A S E A N c o u n t r i e s i n t h e 1 . 5 - S R E 9 0 a n d 1 . 5 - S R E 1 0 0 by 2050 75 Figure 35 E n e r g y e x c h a n g