绿色资本支出：绿色通货膨胀、回报与机遇（英）-高盛.pdf

Greenflation, Returns and Opportunity The Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, recognition of the need for energy reliability and rising interest rates are driving debates around how private sector and public sector commitment to Green Capex will evolve and whether this raises or lowers the attractiveness of investment opportunities towards achieving Net Zero, Infrastructure and Clean Water goals. We continue to see Green Capex as an underappreciated secular growth trend as investments rise towards Decarbonization, Infrastructure and Clean Water goals. Even as the incremental $2.8 trillion in annual investment needed this decade vs. 2016-20 is not fully on track: (a) capex + R and (b) governments appear more committed to increasing or stimulating Green Capex, particularly in Europe. We believe corporate returns and forward corporate returns momentum will be a key driver of stock performance, and in this report we present screens that highlight sectors where we see favorable, resilient and/or improving corporate returns levered to technologies needed in the Green Capex mosaic. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. EQUITY RESEARCH | June 27, 2022 | 10:19 AM EDT The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GREEN CAPEX Enrico Chinello, Ph.D. +1(212)357-3398 |enrico.chinello@gs.com Goldman Sachs Corporate returns that are expected to rise in 2023 or 2024 vs. 2022. The Semiconductors and Software sectors meet all three criteria. 27 June 2022 3 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAINWe maintain our expectations for Green Capex spare capacity at $1.0 trillion annually. Spare capacity is now even 7. more heavily concentrated in Oil/Gas, which we believe will increase considerations by Sustainability investors to deploy engagement strategies focused on ESG Improvers or those with low cost and low environmental footprint. 27 June 2022 4 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN Exhibit 1: With consensus expectations for capex and R (2) a 3.5% (vs. 3.0% prior) overall Capex + R and (3) a 1 .5% Green Capex mix shift — consistent with the findings detailed in our November 2021 ESG of the Future report introducing analyst forecasts for Green Capex and Green Revenue mix. We revise our estimates for incremental Green Capex on track this decade from privately held companies to $0.3 n trillion from $0.4 trillion previously. We revise downward our expectations in Green Capex-related private capital raised (Renewable Energy, Clean Tech, Environmental Services, Utilities, Water funds) due to total funds raised in 2021 coming below our prior estimates. Data for 2021 indicates private equity capital raised for infrastructure, Climate and Clean Water objectives totaled $65 bn. Adding leverage to the equity component at a 50%/50% equity/debt split, the incremental capital available from privately held companies in 2021 would total $124 bn (vs. $135 bn based on prior estimates). A scenario where private equity capital raised grows at a 20% CAGR — above the 12% historical CAGR of capital available to invest, and in-line with our Asset Management and Capital Markets teams’ view of increasing share of ESG/Infrastructure capital — would imply incremental available capital from privately held companies of $0.3 tn on 27 June 2022 8 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAINaverage within 2021-2030 (vs. about $0.4 tn as indicated in our prior reports). We maintain our expectations for spare capacity from publicly traded companies of $1.0 trillion annually. As we detail later in the report, while spare capacity was concentrated in oil/gas, metals/mining, semiconductors and software sectors, it has become even more concentrated in oil/gas as a result of the recent spike in prices and management focus on return of capital. Upward revisions to Oil & Gas operating cash flow have well exceeded the upward revisions to sector capex. Most other sectors are spending incrementally more in capex + R&D without a requisite increase in operating cash flow. We see an additional gap of $0.9 tn needed (assuming corporate spare capacity is deployed) which could come from governments and/or individuals. As we note later in the report, we see rising government incentives/investment in Europe post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exhibit 3: An incremental $2.8 trillion of Green Capex is needed per year in the 2020s to support Net Zero, Infrastructure and Clean Water pathways Green Capex in the Net Zero scenario $6 tn $0.8 , e tur uc tr as r Inf ental em r Inc .7 $1 , ex Cap re tu rastruc f In y c a g e L .2 0 $ , ater W n ental Clea em r Inc .2 .2 0 0 $ , Capex ater W ean Cl y Legac $1.8 , o er Z Net ental em r Inc .2 $1 , ex Cap o er Z Net y Legac 0 $ Source: World Bank, IEA, McKinsey, OECD, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 27 June 2022 9 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN Exhibit 4: The Net Zero, Infrastructure and Clean Water mosaic Critical technologies/focus areas and annual investment in the 2020s to achieve Net Zero, Infrastructure and Clean Water needs Source: IEA, McKinsey, OECD, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 27 June 2022 0 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN Exhibit 5: We believe the private sector is still on track for $0.9 tn — despite a different public/private companies mix vs. prior reports — of the incremental $2.8 tn Green Capex needed annually in the 2020s — with a greater mix from public companies, more than offset by a decline in our expectations from private equity funds. We see potential for $1.0 tn of additional Green Capex from publicly traded companies based on estimated spare capacity Components of incremental annual investment needed this decade to meet Net Zero, infrastructure and clean water goals, $ trillion $0.6 tn $2.8 tn $0.3 tn $1.0 tn $0.9 tn $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 Projected from public companies Projected from private companies Spare capacity from public companies Additional investment needed We believe we are still currently on track for $0.9 of the total $2.8 tn needed Source: IEA, OECD, McKinsey & Company, FactSet, Preqin, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 27 June 2022 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAINCapex + R in particular FactSet consensus calls for Utilities and Clean Energy to grow 7 .7% in 2022E (vs. 0.8% prior), while other Green Capex sectors are projected to see 2022E Capex + R&D increasing by 10.7% (vs. 3.9% prior). Taking into account revisions to 2021 based on reported data, Capex + R&D annual growth in 2021-24 for Green Capex-critical sectors is now expected to be 5.3% vs. 2.5% 6 months ago), based on FactSet consensus. We continue to assume Green mix shift consistent with our forward-looking analyst estimates. Solely applying overall capex + R&D growth does not factor in mix shift towards Green Capex, an important driver of Green Capex, in our view. As we detailed in our November 2021 ESG of the Future report, our forward-looking forecasts for Green Revenue and Green Capex mix by analysts across 19 sectors implies an annual 1 .3% increase in weighting in Capex towards sustainable use cases through 2025E. Given potential for further upside, in our scenario analysis we round this to 1 .5% and apply the mix shift to capex and R&D across all sectors. We raise our expectation for incremental annual Green Capex on track this decade from publicly traded companies to $0.6 tn from $0.5 tn. We incorporate overall capex + R&D CAGRs YoY growth expectations in 2022-23 as detailed in Exhibit 6 and a 3.5% longer term, combined with a 1 .5% per year Green mix shift. The 3.5% long-term CAGR is larger than what consensus estimates expect for yoy growth in 2023 and 2024 but reflects our expectation that consensus expectations could move higher with greater clarity on avenues for corporates to reinvest cash flow and given trends we see in opportunities/needs for investment. Together this implies $0.6 trillion in higher annual Green Capex on average this decade (Exhibit 7) when applied across the 7 ,000 companies in our GS SUSTAIN database. We see a slightly higher reinvestment rate in 2022 and 2023 vs. our Oct. 2021 Green Capex: Making Infrastructure Happen report, though the reinvestment rate continues to fall vs. the historical average between 2000 and mid-2010s. Current estimates indicate reinvestment rates of cash flows into capex+ R&D still on the decline vs. the historical highs in the 2000s, now forecast at 52% in 2022E, 50% in 2023E and 49% in 2024E — see Exhibit 8. This represents a 1-2 percentage point upward revision vs. our Oct. 2021 Green Capex report — please see Exhibit 9. While this is incrementally positive towards Green Capex initiatives, reinvestment rates into capex + R&D would still need to move 27 June 2022 2 Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN