2020排放差距报告

Emissions Gap Emissions Gap Report 2020 © 2020 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN: 978-92-807-3812-4 Job number: DEW/2310/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. Disclaimers The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For general guidance on matters relating to the use of maps in publications please go to http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/ htmain.htm Mention of a commercial company or product in this document does not imply endorsement by the United Nations Environment Programme or the authors. The use of information from this document for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention on infringement of trademark or copyright laws. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Environment Programme. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. © Maps, photos and illustrations as specified Suggested citation United Nations Environment Programme (2020). Emissions Gap Report 2020. Nairobi. Production United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and UNEP DTU Partnership (UDP). https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 Supported by: UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEP s carbon footprint.Emissions Gap Report 2020Emissions Gap Report 2020 V Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Project steering committee Juliane Berger (German Environment Agency), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Navroz K. Dubash (Centre for Policy Research, India), James Foster (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Samuel Karslake (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Mike Keoghan (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Jian Liu (UNEP), Simon Maxwell (independent), Surabi Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation), Bert Metz (European Climate Foundation), Katia Simeonova (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCCC), Priyadarshi Shukla (Ahmedabad University) and Oksana Tarasova (World Meteorological Organization) Authors Chapter 1 Author: Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark) Chapter 2 Lead authors: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands) and Glen P. Peters (Center for International Climate Research – CICERO, Norway) Contributing authors: Caitlin Bergh (University of Cape Town, South Africa), Monica Crippa (Joint Research Centre/ European Commission, European Union (EU)), Andreas Geiges (Climate Analytics, Germany), Catrina Godinho (HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform, Germany), Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter (Climate Analytics, Germany), Kimon Keramidas (Joint Research Centre/European Commission, EU), Yong Gun Kim (Korea Environment Institute, the Republic of Korea), Swithin Lui (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Zhu Liu (Tsinghua University, China), Jos Olivier (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands), Leonardo Nascimento (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Joana Portugal Pereira (Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Değer Saygin (SHURA, Turkey), Claire Stockwell (Climate Analytics, Germany), Jorge Villareal (Iniciativa Climática de México, Mexico), William Wills (COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Chapter 3 Lead authors: Joeri Rogelj (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – IIASA, Austria), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands) and Joana Portugal Pereira (Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Contributing authors: Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Daniel Huppmann (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – IIASA, Austria), Gunnar Luderer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany) Chapter 4 Lead authors: Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Frederic Hans (NewClimate Institute, Germany) and Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark) Contributing authors: Parth Bhatia (Centre for Policy Research, India), Brian O Callaghan (University of Oxford, UK), Sherillyn Raga (Overseas Development Institute, UK), Nigel Yau (University of Oxford, UK) Chapter 5 Lead authors: Jasper Faber (CE Delft, the Netherlands) and David S. Lee (Manchester Metropolitan University, UK) Contributing authors: Susanne Becken (Griffith University, Australia), James J. Corbett (Energy and Environmental Research Associates, USA), Nick Cumpsty (Imperial College London, UK), Gregg Fleming (Volpe Center, U.S. Department of Transportation, USA), Tore Longva (DNV GL, Norway), Marianne Tronstad Lund (Center for International Climate Research – CICERO, Norway), Tristan Smith (University College London, UK) Chapter 6 Lead authors: Stuart Capstick (Cardiff University, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK), Radhika Khosla (University of Oxford, UK) and Susie Wang (Climate Outreach, UK) Contributing authors: Nicole van den Berg (Utrecht University, the Netherlands), Diana Ivanova (University of Leeds, UK), Ilona M. Otto (Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany), Timothy Gore (Oxfam International, UK), Adam Corner (Climate Outreach, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, UK), Lewis Akenji (Hot or Cool Institute, Germany), Claire Hoolohan (University of Manchester, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK), Kate Power (KR Foundation, Denmark), Lorraine Whitmarsh (University of Bath, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK) Emissions Gap Report 2020 VI Reviewers Thibaut Abergel (International Energy Agency), Ritu Ahuja (The Energy and Resources Institute), Juan-Carlos Altamirano (World Resources Institute), Pieter Boot (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands), Kathryn Jennifer Bowen (Australian National University), Laura Brimont (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations), Jan Burck (Germanwatch), Marina Bylinsky (Airports Council International Europe), Sylvain Cail (Enerdata), Katherine Calvin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Nicolas Campion (Danish Technical University), Jasmin Cantzler (GIZ), Cyril Cassisa (International Energy Agency), Rachel Chi Kiu Mok (World Bank), Laura Cozzi (International Energy Agency), Daniel Crow (International Energy Agency), Sophia David (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Chiara Delmastro (International Energy Agency), Steffen Dockweiler (Klimarådet), Sebastian Eastham (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Lukas Fesenfeld (ETH Zurich), Olivia Flynn (UK Department for Transport), James Foster (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Andreas Frömelt (ETH Zurich), Katja Funke (International Monetary Fund), Harikumar Gadde (World Bank), Mengpin Ge (World Resources Institute), Franck Gouéry (EU Directorate -General for Climate Action), Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen (Finnish Meteorological Institute), Yasuko Kameyama (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan), Samuel Karslake (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Noah Kaufman (Columbia University), Terry Keating (United States Environmental Protection Agency), Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis (Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales), Gabriel Labbate (United Nations Environment Programme), Alan David Lee (World Bank), Gerd Leipold (HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform), Mason Scott Lester (Danish Technical University), Sharon Lo (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Karan Mangotra (The Energy and Resources Institute), Toshihiko Masui (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan), Patrick Matthewson (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Axel Michaelowa (Perspectives Climate Group), Daniel Beat Müller (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Andrei Mungiu (EU delegation to the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation – CORSIA), Marie Münster (Danish Technical University), Tirthankar Nag (International Management Institute, Kolkata), Miles Perry (EU Directorate -General for Climate Action), Apostolos Petropoulos (International Energy Agency), Annie Petsonk (Environmental Defense Fund), Pedro Piris-Cabezas (Environmental Defense Fund), Rhian Rees- Owen (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Yann Robiou du Pont (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations), Michael Russo (University of Aveiro), Mateo Salazar (Vivid Economics), Himanshu Sharma (United Nations Environmental Programme), Chandra Shekhar Sinha (World Bank), Sandhya Srinivasan (World Bank), Julia Steinberger (University of Leeds), Kentaro Tamura (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), Jacopo Tattini (International Energy Agency), Jacob Teter (International Energy Agency), Tom Van Ierland (EU Directorate -General for Climate Action), Tiffany Vass (International Energy Agency), Benjamin Walker (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), George Williams (UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Zhao Xiusheng (Tsinghua University) Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership) and John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership) Editorial support Olivier Bois von Kursk (UNEP DTU Partnership) and James Haselip (UNEP DTU Partnership) Secretariat and project coordination Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), Olivier Bois von Kursk (UNEP DTU Partnership), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Kaisa Uusimaa (UNEP), Maarten Kappelle (UNEP), Ying Wang (UNEP) and Edoardo Zandri (UNEP) Media and launch support Daniel Cooney (UNEP), David Cole (UNEP), Carlota Estalella Alba (UNEP), Florian Fussstetter (UNEP), Keishamaza Rukikaire (UNEP), Maria Vittoria Galassi (UNEP), Michael Logan (UNEP), Nancy Groves (UNEP), Neha Sud (UNEP), Pooja Munshi (UNEP), Viola Kup (UNEP), Mette Annelie Rasmussen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Lasse Hemmingsen (UNEP DTU Partnership) and several other members of the UNEP communication division Design and layout Joseph & Sebastian (Cover), Caren Weeks (Figures), Strategic Agenda (Layout) Translation of the executive summary and language editing Strategic Agenda Thanks also to: Niklas Hagelberg (UNEP), Pinya Sarasas (UNEP), Angeline Djampou (UNEP), Sofía Méndez Mora (UNEP), Garrette Clark (UNEP), Susan Mutebi-Richards (UNEP), Harsha Dave (UNEP), Abdelmenam Mohamed (UNEP), Mohamed Atani (UNEP), Ekaterina Tegina (UNEP), Roel Hoenders (International Maritime Organization – IMO), Camille Bourgeon (IMO), John Calleya (IMO), Gerd Leipold (Climate Transparency), Catrina Godinho (Climate Transparency) and Beatriz Martinez Romera (University of Copenhagen) Finally, UNEP would like to thank the ClimateWorks Foundation, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), the KR Foundation and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) for supporting the work of the Emissions Gap Report.Emissions Gap Report 2020 VII Contents Acknowledgements V Glossary IX Foreword XIII Executive summary XIV Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context of the Emissions Gap Report 2020 1 1.2 Focus and approach of the report 1 1.3 Structure of the report 2 Chapter 2 Global emissions trends and G20 status and outlook 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Current global emissions: status and trends 4 2.3 Achievement of Cancun Pledges by G20 members, considering the potential impact of COVID-19 10 2.4 Assessment of G20 members’ progress towards NDC targets 10 2.5 The need to translate long-term net-zero emissions goals into near-term ambition and action 23 Chapter 3 The emissions gap 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 The 2030 emissions gap 25 3.3 Scenarios considered for the 2030 gap assessment 28 3.4 Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated rescue and recovery measures on GHG emissions by 2030 31 3.5 Implications of the emissions gap for the feasibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement 33 Chapter 4 Bridging the gap – implications of current COVID-19 fiscal rescue and recovery measures 36 4.1 Introduction 36 4.2 Unprecedented global fiscal spending on economic rescue and recovery measures 37 4.3 Fiscal COVID-19 spending has so far primarily supported the global status quo of high-carbon economic production 38 4.4 Emerging lessons and examples for governments in the pursuit of low-carbon economic recovery 40 Chapter 5 Bridging the gap – the role of international shipping and aviation 52 5.1 Introduction and framing 52 5.2 Current emissions, projections and drivers 52 5.3 Mitigation options 55 5.4 Pathways to lower emissions 58 5.5 Conclusions 60 Chapter 6 Bridging the gap – the role of equitable low-carbon lifestyles 62 6.1 The consumption problem and why lifestyles are critical to tackling climate change 62 6.2 Achieving lifestyle emissions reduction by sector 64 6.3 Realizing lifestyle change: which mechanisms encourage lo