2023年关键矿产市场报告（英文版）-国际能源署IEA.pdf

Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Kenya Morocco Senegal Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 PAGE | 2 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 I E A . CC B Y 4 . 0 . Abstract The inaugural edition of the Critical Minerals Market Review provides a major update on the investment, market, technology and policy trends of the critical minerals sector in 2022 and an an initial reading of the emerging picture for 2023. Through in-depth analyses of clean energy and mineral market trends, this report assesses the progress made by countries and businesses in scaling up future supplies, diversifying sources of supply, and improving sustainable and responsible practices. It also examines major trends for individual minerals and discusses key policy implications. The report will be followed by a forthcoming analysis that will feature comprehensive demand and supply projections for key materials and a number of deep-dives on key issues. It also makes available an online tool, the Critical Minerals Data Explorer, which allow users to explore interactively the latest IEA projections. Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 PAGE | 3 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 I E A . CC B Y 4 . 0 . Table of content Introduction 4 Executive summary . 5 Key market developments 9 Developments of the battery sector 35 Key trends by individual commodity . 50 Implications 62 Annex 75 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 PAGE | 4 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 I E A . CC B Y 4 . 0 . Introduction Critical minerals, essential for a range of clean energy technologies, have risen up the policy and business agenda in recent years. Rapid growth in demand is providing new opportunities for the industry, but a combination of volatile price movements, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns has created a potent mix of risks for secure and rapid energy transitions. This has triggered an array of new policy actions in different jurisdictions to enhance the diversity and reliability of critical mineral supplies. Since the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) landmark analysis on the Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions and the new ministerial mandates in March 2022, the Agency has expanded its work on critical minerals to help policymakers address these emerging challenges and ensure reliable and sustainable supplies of critical minerals. These efforts include a commitment to regular market monitoring, which aims to provide a clear understanding of today’s demand and supply dynamics and what they mean for the future. In this inaugural piece of analysis, we review the latest price, investment and production trends in the critical minerals sector. The first chapter provides a snapshot of industry developments in 2022 and early 2023. The second chapter reviews key trends in the battery sector given its importance in driving demand growth for critical minerals. The third chapter presents a concise review of key trends for each individual commodity. In the final chapter, we present implications for policy and industry stakeholders. Critical minerals have been fully integrated into the IEA’s Global Energy and Climate Model, which means that the projections for critical minerals demand and supply are regularly updated in line with latest policy and technology trends in the IEA energy scenarios, notably in the World Energy Outlook and the Global EV Outlook. The updated projections are available through the IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer, an online tool that intends to allow users to easily access and navigate the latest data. This is part of the efforts to enhance market transparency through making more data publicly available. Our report considers a wide range of minerals used in clean energy technologies, as indicated in the Annex of the special report. For energy transition minerals, we focus on copper, major battery metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite) and rare earth elements. We also discuss trends for other important minerals and metals such as aluminium, manganese, platinum group metals and uranium as relevant. This report focuses on today’s state of play. It will be complemented by a forthcoming piece of analysis that will provide full demand and supply projections for key materials and a number of deep-dives on key issues. This will respond directly to the request in the G7 Five-Point Plan for critical minerals security, where the Group of Seven ministers asked the IEA to produce medium- and long-term outlooks for critical minerals demand and supply to help inform decision making. Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 PAGE | 5 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 I E A . CC B Y 4 . 0 . Executive summary Record deployment of clean energy technologies such as solar PV and batteries is propelling unprecedented growth in the critical minerals markets. Electric car sales increased by 60% in 2022, exceeding 10 million units. Energy storage systems experienced even more rapid growth, with capacity additions doubling in 2022. Solar PV installations continue to shatter previous records, and wind power is set to resume its upward march after two subdued years. This has led to a significant increase in demand for critical minerals. From 2017 to 2022, demand from the energy sector was the main factor behind a tripling in overall demand for lithium, a 70% jump in demand for cobalt, and a 40% rise in demand for nickel. In 2022, the share of clean energy applications in total demand reached 56% for lithium, 40% for cobalt and 16% for nickel, up from 30% for lithium, 17% for cobalt and 6% for nickel five years ago. Driven by rising demand and high prices, the market size of key energy transition minerals doubled over the past five years, reaching USD 320 billion in 2022. This contrasts with the modest growth of bulk materials like zinc and lead. As a result, energy transition minerals, which used to be a small segment of the market, are now moving to centre stage in the mining and metals industry. This brings new revenue opportunities for the industry, creates jobs for the society, and in some cases helps diversify coal-dependent economies. The affordability and speed of energy transitions will be heavily influenced by the availability of critical mineral supplies. Many critical minerals experienced broad-based price increases in 2021 and early 2022, accompanied by strong volatility, particularly for lithium and nickel. Most prices began to moderate in the latter half of 2022 and into 2023 but remain well above historical averages. Higher or volatile mineral prices during 2021 and 2022 highlighted the importance of material prices in the costs of transforming our energy systems. According to the IEA’s clean energy equipment price index, clean energy technology costs continued to decline until the end of 2020 due to technology innovation and economies of scale, but high material prices then reversed this decade-long trend. Despite these recent setbacks, it is noteworthy that the prices of all clean energy technologies today are significantly lower than a decade ago. Countries are seeking to diversify mineral supplies with a wave of new policies. There is growing recognition that policy interventions are needed to ensure adequate and sustainable mineral supplies and the proliferation of such initiatives includes the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials (CRM) Act, the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy and Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy, among others. The IEA Critical Minerals Policy Tracker identified nearly 200 policies and regulations across the globe, with over 100 of these enacted in the past few years. Many of these interventions have implications for trade and investment, and some have included restrictions on import or export. Among resource-rich countries, Indonesia, Namibia and Zimbabwe have introduced measures to ban Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 PAGE | 6 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 I E A . CC B Y 4 . 0 . the export of unprocessed mineral ore. Globally, export restrictions on critical raw materials have seen a fivefold increase since 2009. Investment in critical minerals development recorded another sharp uptick by 30% in 2022, following a 20% increase in 2021. Our detailed analysis of the investment levels of 20 large mining companies with a significant presence in developing energy transition minerals shows a strong rise in capital expenditure on critical minerals, spurred by the robust momentum behind clean energy deployment. Companies specialising in lithium development recorded a 50% increase in spending, followed by those focusing on copper and nickel. Companies based in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) nearly doubled their investment spending in 2022. Exploration spending also rose by 20% in 2022, driven by record growth in lithium exploration. Canada and Australia led the way with over 40% growth year-on-year, notably in hard-rock lithium plays. Exploration activities are also expanding in Africa and Brazil. Lithium stood out as a clear leader in exploration activities, with spending increasing by 90%. Uranium also experienced a significant surge in spending by 60% due to renewed interest in nuclear power amid concerns over Russian supplies. Nickel was a close follower with a 45% growth rate for exploration, led by Canada, where high-grade sulfide resources, proximity to existing infrastructure and access to low- emissions electricity create attractive investment opportunities. Despite headwinds in the wider venture capital sector, critical minerals start-ups raised a record USD 1.6 billion in 2022. This 160% year-on-year increase took the critical minerals category to 4% of all venture capital (VC) funding for clean energy. The first quarter of 2023 has been strong for critical minerals, despite a severe downturn in other VC segments, such as digital start-ups. Battery recycling was the largest recipient of VC funding, followed by lithium extraction and refining technologies. Companies based in the United States raised most of the funds, at 45% of the total between 2018 and 2022. Canadian and Chinese start-ups are notably active in battery recycling and lithium refining. European start-ups have been successful at raising money for rare earth elements, battery reuse and battery material supply. The battery sector is undergoing transformative changes with the emergence of new technology options. Global battery demand for clean energy applications increased by two-thirds in 2022, with energy storage becoming a growing part of the total demand. Demand for batteries in vehicles outpaced the growth rate of electric car sales as the average battery size for electric cars continued to rise in nearly every major market. The trend of favouring larger vehicles seen in conventional car markets is being replicated in the EV market, posing additional pressure on critical mineral supply chains. Sodium-ion batteries witnessed a leap forward in early 2023, with plans for production capacity exceeding 100 gigawatt-hours, primarily concentrated in China. Initially, companies are targeting less demanding applications such as stationary storage or micromobility for this technology, and it remains to be seen if it will be able to meet the needs for EV range and charging time. Today, the vast majority of recycling capacity is located in China, but new facilities are being developed in Europe and the United States. Scrap from manufacturing processes is Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 PAGE | 7 Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 I E A . CC B Y 4 . 0 . dominating today’s recycling pool, but this is set to change from around 2030 as used EV batteries reach the end of their first life. In a bid to secure mineral supplies, automakers, battery cell makers and equipment manufacturers are increasingly getting involved in the critical minerals value chain. Long-term offtake agreements have become the norm in the industry’s procurement strategies, but companies are taking extra steps to invest directly in the critical minerals value chain such as mining, refining and precursor materials. Since 2021, there has been a notable increase in direct investment activities. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited, the world’s largest battery cell maker, has made the acquisition of critical mineral assets a central element of its strategy. Other examples include General Motors’ USD 650 million investment in Lithium Americas and Tesla’s plan to build a new lithium refinery in the United States, among others. Demand for critical minerals for clean energy technologies is set to increase rapidly in all IEA scenarios. Since its landmark special report in 2021, the IEA has been updating its projections for future mineral demand based on the latest policy and technology developments. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), demand more than doubles by 2030. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, demand for critical minerals grows by three and a half times to 2030, reaching over 30 million tonnes. EVs and battery storage are the main drivers of demand growth, but there are also major contributions from low- emissions power generation and electricity networks. These results are available through the IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer, an interactive online tool that allows users to easily access the IEA s projection data under different scenarios and technology trends. Three layers of supply-side challenges need to be addressed to ensure rapid and secure energy transitions. They are i) whether future supplies can keep up with the rapid pace of demand growth in climate-driven scenarios; ii) whether those supplies can come f