2023年清洁能源技术制造业报告（英文版）--IEA.pdf

The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Briefing The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t in this update data for year-end 2022 are added. “Announced projects” refers to the aggregate stated capacity – or estimated throughput of that capacity assuming a default utilisation rate of 85% – of potential future manufacturing facilities for which projects have been announced. Announcements include projects that are at different stages of development, with some already under construction and others not yet at the final investment decision stage. The quantities associated with these projects are not a forecast, nor are they directly associated with the projected quantities embodied by the scenarios described in Box 1. Actual manufacturing capacity additions could turn out to be higher than current public announcements at a given point in time, or lower, as not all announced projects will materialise. As such, they provide an indicator of where the industry is headed, but not an expectation on the eventual outcome. How these factors play out will vary by technology and by regional context. ETP-2023 provided a snapshot of announced projects as of end-November 2022 (hereafter “late 2022”); this briefing covers those project announcements and in addition any further announcements up to end-March 2023 (hereafter “end-Q1 2023”). Unless stated otherwise, forward-looking quantities associated with the capacity or throughput of announced projects include all projects in operation up to and including the year 2030. Complete data on manufacturing capacity and throughput have been compiled for 2021 and 2022. Project announcements are compiled on an on-going basis for electrolysers, on a monthly basis for solar PV and batteries, and on an ad-hoc basis for wind and heat pumps. No new quantifiable data on project announcements were available for wind since the publication of ETP-2023, and thus there is no change in the quantification of announced projects for that technology in this briefing. External data providers include InfoLink, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Wood Mackenzie, and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Recent developments in clean technology manufacturing A review of the latest project announcements for clean technology manufacturing shows that some manufacturing sectors look set to meet – and even to exceed – the capacity required by 2030 to get on track with the deployment needs of the The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing: An ETP Special Briefing Part II: Analysis PAGE | 10 I E A . C C B Y 4 .0 . NZE Scenario. Others are lagging behind, with substantial increases in ambition required to meet emissions reduction goals, but progress has been made in the past few months. Given the short lead times required to bring manufacturing capacity online, reaching the 2030 deployment levels in the NZE Scenario, though a significant challenge, is not an insurmountable one for these technologies. Figure 1 Announced project throughput and deployment for key clean energy technologies in 2030 in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: PV = photovoltaic; NZE Scenario = Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. “Announced projects: late 2022” corresponds to the project pipeline assessed for ETP-2023, including project announcements through to the end of November 2022. “Announced projects: Additional to end-Q1 2023” corresponds to projects announced between the end of November 2022 and the end of March 2023. Deployment and throughput are expressed in physical units, normalised to 2030 NZE Scenario deployment needs. For solar PV and batteries, announced projects today already meet and even exceed the deployment levels required in the NZE Scenario in 2030. Short lead times suggest the gaps remaining for wind, heat pumps and electrolysers, though significant, are not insurmountable. Solar PV manufacturing continues to expand dramatically Solar PV manufacturing – which increased at a compound annual growth rate of 25% during the period 2010-2021 – shows no sign of slowing down. In 2021, manufacturing throughput stood just over 190 GW globally, compared with around 160 GW of solar PV deployed in the same year. In 2022, global manufacturing capacity rose by nearly 40% to about 640 GW, with 90% of the growth relative to 2021 taking place in People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”). Manufacturing throughput in 2022 was around 260 GW, significantly below the 640 GW of installed manufacturing capacity – indicating a global average utilisation rate of around 40%. As of late 2022, our analysis of announced projects for solar PV suggested that manufacturers were already on track to meet projected demand in 2030 in the NZE Scenario, with about 670 GW of throughput by that year resulting from 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Solar PV Batteries Wind Heat pumps Electrolysers S har e of 2030 N Z E S c enar i o depl oy m ent 2021 2022 As of late 2022 Additional to end-Q1 2023 Gap to NZE NZE Scenario deployment needs in 2030 Installed manufacturing capacity: Announced projects: The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing: An ETP Special Briefing Part II: Analysis PAGE | 11 I E A . C C B Y 4 .0 . announcements for additional manufacturing capacity. As of end-Q1 2023, the project pipeline has expanded even further. Around 480 GW of additional module manufacturing capacity has been announced (570 GW of cells, 250 GW of wafers, 570 GW of polysilicon), increasing the total volume of planned capacity by 60%. The result is nearly 1.1 TW of projected throughput from this announced manufacturing capacity for modules, which, when combined with current installed capacity, is 65% higher than the level required to satisfy deployment needs under the NZE Scenario in 2030. When examining the projected output for other major PV components – albeit with a shorter time horizon for announced projects up to and including 2027 – the figures are 80%, 37% and 96% for cells, wafers and polysilicon respectively. However, only around 25% of the announced module manufacturing capacity is committed, i.e. under construction or having reached final investment decision. Even considering just these projects – alongside existing capacity of 640 GW – the project pipeline appears capable of accommodating the NZE Scenario deployment needs by 2030, if utilisation rates increase to 85% on average globally by then. Major project 7 announcements made in Q1 2023 include new manufacturing facilities for the world’s top three producers – LONGi, Jinko Solar and Trina – as well as for other larger (e.g. Tongwei, Suntech) and smaller or emerging players (e.g. Solar Grids, REC Group, Hoshine, Royal), mostly based in China. These major projects account for 45% of the total additional capacity announced as of Q1 2023. Acceleration in battery manufacturing is closing the gap with net zero needs Battery manufacturing capacity is also booming, owing to rapid increases in electric vehicle (EV) sales. In 2021, battery manufacturing throughput stood at 340 GWh, with this figure nearly doubling to reach 660 GWh in 2022. 580 GWh of manufacturing capacity was added in 2022, up 85% from the capacity added in 2021. About 80% of the 2022 manufacturing capacity additions were in China, just over 10% in Europe and just under 10% in the United States. Around 90% of these batteries are currently destined for automotive applications. Global electric car sales rose by 55% year-on-year in 2022, with the share of electric cars in total car sales reaching 14%, up from 9% in 2021. In major markets such as China and Europe this share reached 29% and 21%, respectively. Sales also rose to a nearly 8% share in the United States, representing 55% year-on-year growth. Looking at the pipeline of announced projects, from late 2022 to end-Q1 2023, planned manufacturing capacity has risen from around 5.5 TWh to 6.8 TWh per 7 “Major projects” refers to plants with stated production capacity greater than or equal to 20 GW per year for solar PV modules. To compare, the average manufacturing capacity of a solar PV module plant was around 2.8 GW per year in 2022. The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing: An ETP Special Briefing Part II: Analysis PAGE | 12 I E A . C C B Y 4 .0 . year – an increase of 25%. As of late 2022, the total potential output from these announced projects stood at around 80% of what was needed by 2030 to be on track with the NZE Scenario. The updated assessment performed for this briefing now puts the total projected output from these projects just below the levels required (5.9 TWh annually), demonstrating strong investment in – and strong policy support and demand for – battery manufacturing. We estimate that around 30% of these projects can be considered committed globally, with the proportion being slightly higher in the United States (just under 40%) but much lower in the European Union (around 10%). If only committed projects materialised, there would be a gap to global NZE Scenario deployment levels of around 50% in 2030. Major project announcements for solar PV and battery manufacturing operations in Q1 2023 Company Location Country Production capacity Projected completion year/year reaching maximum throughput Batteries Tesla Austin US 200 GWh 2024/2025-2030 CATL Yibin China 186 GWh Operating/2030 CATL Fuding China 120 GWh Operating/2025-2030 LGES Wroclaw Poland 115 GWh Operating/2025 CATL Debrecen Hungary 100 GWh 2025/2028 LGES Nanjing 1 China 92 GWh Operating/2030 CALB Changzhou China 90 GWh Operating/2025-2030 Tesla Berlin Germany 85 GWh 2024/2030 CATL Luoyang China 80 GWh 2025/2025-2030 Solar PV Jinko Solar Yuhuan China 30 GW 2024/2025 Solar grids Zhuhai China 30 GW 2024/2024 Tongwei Yancheng China 25 GW 2023/2023 Tongwei Nantong China 25 GW 2023/2024 Jinko Solar Shangrao China 24 GW 2023/2025 LONGi Taizhou China 20 GW Operating/Already at maximum LONGi Wuhu China 20 GW 2023/2025 Trina Yancheng Dafeng China 20 GW Operating/2024 Suntech Chuzhou Fengyang China 20 GW 2023/2024 REC Group Jamnagar India 20 GW 2023/2026 Solar grids Yiwu China 20 GW 2024/2024 Hoshine Urumqi China 20 GW 2023/2026 Royal Fuyang China 20 GW 2023/2025 Notes: PV = photovoltaic. “Major projects” refer to plants with stated production capacity by 2030 greater than or equal to 20 GW per year for solar PV modules and 80 GWh per year for electric vehicle batteries. Any anticipated expansions beyond 2030 have not been included. The battery manufacturing facilities include all kinds of chemistries, both for mobility as well as stationary applications. The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing: An ETP Special Briefing Part II: Analysis PAGE | 13 I E A . C C B Y 4 .0 . Announced projects for electrolysers increase after a slow start Electrolyser manufacturing for use in the production of hydrogen is still a nascent industry and is the least mature technology examined in this briefing. In 2021, electrolyser manufacturing capacity stood at around 8 GW, increasing to 11 GW in 2022. Looking forward, announced projects as of end-Q1 2023 suggest nearly 125 GW of additional installed manufacturing capacity could be expected by 2030. The resulting throughput projected from these announced projects – together with that from existing installations – would achieve more than 60% of the levels needed in the NZE Scenario in 2030. Counting only the projects that are committed, that figure drops to under 10%. The project pipeline is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, but announced projects need early support to ensure that they reach final investment decisions. If all planned projects were realised, costs for electrolysers could fall by more than 60% by 2030. Wind and heat pump manufacturing is seeing more gradual change Data for manufacturing capacity of wind and heat pumps is more limited, and so it is too early to tell whether there have been significant changes in the first months of this year. We estimate that manufacturing throughput for wind was around 100 GW in 2022, and just under 120 GW for heat pumps. A large gap between expected output from announced projects and 2030 NZE Scenario needs exists for both technologies: a gap of over 70% for wind and nearly 60% for heat pumps. However, lead times for constructing these facilities can be relatively short in many cases, around 1-3 years. Virtually all of the project announcements for heat pumps are situated in Europe, although this may be because capacity additions in other regions are often not as prominently or explicitly announced as for other technologies, partly because heat pumps often represent a small proportion of a manufacturer’s total production. Heat pump manufacturing capacity expansions typically follow near-term demand trends without explicit announcements. As such, the gaps to the NZE Scenario deployment levels may appear larger than they really are. If we assume that a similar share of already installed capacity to that in Europe is forthcoming in other regions, the existing gap to the 2030 NZE Scenario deployment levels, which is currently at around 60% globally, would fall to around 20%. A complete set of quantitative data on the most recent announcements for wind components – nacelles, towers and blades – is not available at the time of preparing this briefing. However, preliminary analysis of component-level project announcements suggests that for onshore wind components, manufacturing capacity could reach 100-110 GW by 2025, of which 60% would be located in China, 15% in Europe and about 10% in North America. For offshore installations, The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing: An ETP Special Briefing Part II: Analysis PAGE | 14 I E A . C C B Y 4 .0 . project announcements suggest a manufacturing capacity of around 30 GW, of which around 70-80% is in China and much of the rest in Europe. Regional concentration in clean technology manufacturing For the clean energy technologies considered in this briefing – solar PV, wind, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – four countries and the European Union account for 80-90% of manufacturing capacity, with China in the lead for all. For clean technology supply chains more broadly, there are important levels of concentration at each of the major steps, and not just in manufacturing. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo alone produces 70% of the world’s cobalt, and just three cou