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Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions A World Energy Outlook Special Report on the Oil and Gas Industry and COP28 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYEmissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Abstract PAGE | 3 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Abstract Today, oil and gas operations account for around 15% of total energy-related emissions globally, the equivalent of 5.1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. In the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the emissions intensity of these activities falls by 50% by the end of the decade. Combined with the reductions in oil and gas consumption in this scenario, this results in a 60% reduction in emissions from oil and gas operations to 2030. Fortunately, oil and gas producers have a clear opportunity to address the problem of emissions from their activities through a series of ready-to-implement and cost- effective measures. These include tackling methane emissions, eliminating all non-emergency flaring, electrifying upstream facilities with low-emissions electricity, equipping oil and gas processes with carbon capture, utilisation and storage technologies, and expanding the use of hydrogen from low-emissions electrolysis in refineries. Upfront investments totalling USD 600 billion would be required to halve the emissions intensity of oil and gas operations globally by 2030. This is only a fraction of the record windfall income that oil and gas producers accrued in 2022 – a year of soaring energy prices amid a global energy crisis. This report aims to inform discussions on these issues in the run-up to the COP28 Climate Change Conference in Dubai in November and is part of a broader World Energy Outlook special report to be released later in 2023 focusing on the role of the oil and gas industry in net zero transitions. Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 4 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Executive summary The production, transport and processing of oil and gas resulted in 5.1 billion tonnes (Gt) CO2-eq in 2022. These “scope 1 and 2” emissions from oil and gas activities are responsible for just under 15% of total energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The use of the oil and gas results in another 40% of emissions. In this report, we look at the changes and measures needed to reduce the emissions intensity of oil and gas operations in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario. The work brings together, expands and updates analysis from previous IEA work to inform discussions in the run up to COP28 in Dubai. It is part of a broader World Energy Outlook Special Report to be released in 2023 focussing on the role of the oil and gas industry in net zero transitions. The NZE Scenario maps out a way to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5°C alongside achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030. This scenario sees a rapid decline in oil and gas demand, which is sufficiently steep that it can be satisfied in aggregate without developing new oil and gas fields. There is also an immediate, concerted effort by all the oil and gas industry to limit emissions from its activities. In the NZE Scenario, the global average emissions intensity of oil and gas supply falls by more than 50% between 2022 and 2030. Combined with the reductions in oil and gas consumption, this results in a 60% reduction in emissions from oil and gas operations to 2030. Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensities of oil and gas operations in the NZE Scenario and total emissions from operations in 2022 and 2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. 30 60 90 120 Oil Natural gas 2022 2030 Emissions intensity kg CO ₂-eq/boe -50% -55% 1 2 3 4 Oil Natural gas GtCO ₂-eq Total emissions -60% -65%Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 5 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Five key levers are used to achieve this reduction in emissions intensities: tackling methane emissions, eliminating all non-emergency flaring, electrifying upstream facilities with low-emissions electricity, equipping oil and gas processes with carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), and expanding the use of low- emissions electrolysis hydrogen in refineries. No offsets are used to achieve the reductions in emissions in the NZE Scenario. Tackling methane emissions is the single most important measure that contributes to the overall fall in emissions from oil and gas operations, followed by eliminating flaring and electrification. Scaling up CCUS and expanding the use of low- emissions hydrogen play complementary roles but have significant potential for positive spillovers into other aspects of energy transitions, by accelerating deployment and technology learning for these technologies. Reductions in emissions from oil and gas operations in 2030 in the NZE Scenario and cumulative cost and savings of deploying these measures from 2022 to 2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Tackling scope 1 and 2 emissions from oil and gas is one of the most viable and lowest cost options to reduce total GHG emissions from any activity to 2030. Around USD 600 billion upfront spending is required over the period to 2030 to achieve the full 50% reduction in the emissions intensity of oil and gas operations. This is 15% of the windfall net income the industry received in 2022. Many of the measures also lead to additional income streams by avoiding the use or waste of gas meaning they can quickly recoup the upfront spending required. For facilities implementing these measures, the average cost of producing oil and gas would increase by less than USD 2 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). 400 800 1 200 Hydrogen CCUS Electrifi- cation Flaring Methane Emissions reductions in 2030 Mt CO ₂-eq - 100 0 100 200 300 Methane Flaring Electrifi- cation CCUS Hydrogen Billion USD (2022) Cost and savings to 2030Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 6 I EA. CC BY 4.0. A number of companies have to date announced targets to reduce their scope 1 and 2 emissions. These vary markedly in their scope and timelines for implementation. Only a fraction of these commitments matches the pace of decline seen in the NZE Scenario and most plan to use offsets to achieve their targets. Forward-leaning companies need to recognise the need to move faster than the global average reduction in emissions and build a broader coalition of companies willing to play their part. To build public confidence in actions being taken, a consistent approach is needed to monitor, report, and verify emissions from oil and gas activities. This should be based on robust measurements to improve the accuracy, availability, and transparency of emissions data. Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Introduction PAGE | 7 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Introduction The Net‐ Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) involves transformation of the global energy system that is unparalleled in its speed and scope. Policies are rapidly introduced to reduce emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure and to scale up the deployment of clean energy technologies. Clean energy investment therefore rises three-fold in the period to 2030 from USD 1.4 trillion in 2022 to more than USD 4 trillion in 2030. This investment surge leads to a decline in energy-related emissions and demand for fossil fuels. The declines in oil and gas demand in the NZE Scenario are sufficiently steep that it is possible to meet them without the need for new long lead time upstream conventional projects. This brings down total upstream investments considerably compared with the levels seen in 2022. Nonetheless, continued investment in existing oil and gas assets is essential in the NZE Scenario. This is to ensure that oil and gas supply does not fall faster than the decline in demand and also to reduce the emissions arising from oil and gas operations. This report sets out the current contribution of oil and gas activities to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the opportunity and costs of measures that can tackle these emissions, and the reductions seen in oil and gas “scope 1 and 2” emissions in the NZE Scenario in the period to 2030. 1 This work builds on the modelling and approach to oil and gas emissions described in the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2018, the WEO special report on The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions from 2020, and the latest version of the NZE Scenario published in the WEO 2022. Invaluable input to the analysis was provided by the Rocky Mountain Institute’s (RMI) Oil Climate Index plus Gas (OCI+) and the World Bank Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership. Further details on definitions and the modelling approach can be found in the Technical Annex. 1 In this report, “scope 1” emissions are taken as emissions that come directly from the oil and gas industry itself (e.g. emissions from powering the engines of drilling rigs or methane emissions that arise during oil and gas extraction or transport). “Scope 2” emissions arise from the generation of energy that is purchased by the oil and gas industry (e.g. from the generation of electricity taken from a centralised grid to power auxiliary services. The sum of scope 1 and 2 emissions is often referred to as the “well-to-tank” or “well-to-meter” emissions. Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Emissions intensities today PAGE | 8 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Emissions intensities today Oil and gas operations today are responsible for 15% of global energy-related GHG emissions According to latest IEA data and estimates, oil and gas operations resulted in 5.1 billion tonnes (Gt) CO2-eq in 2022. Global energy-related GHG emissions were around 40 Gt CO 2-eq in 2022, meaning the oil and gas industry was directly responsible for nearly 15% of energy GHG emissions. Oil operations were responsible for 3.5 Gt CO 2-eq and natural gas operations for 1.6 Gt CO2-eq. IEA. CC BY 4.0. These emissions come from a variety of sources along the oil and gas supply chains. Extracting oil and gas from the subsurface requires large amounts of energy to power drilling rigs, pumps and other process equipment and to provide heat. Most oil is refined prior to use and this requires large quantities of energy, especially to produce the hydrogen that is used to upgrade and treat the crude oil. Natural gas also undergoes processing to separate natural gas liquids and remove impurities such as CO2, hydrogen sulphide or sulphur dioxide. Crude oil, oil products and natural gas are transported, often over long distances, by both pipeline and by ship and these processes are also an important source of GHG emissions. Spectrum of scope 1 and 2 emissions intensities for oil, 2022 Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Emissions intensities today PAGE | 9 I EA. CC BY 4.0. In 2022, the energy required for the extraction, processing, refining and transport of oil resulted in 450 Mt CO2 emissions. Gas flaring, predominantly at oil production facilities, resulted in a further 250 Mt CO2 emissions. The energy for natural gas extraction, processing and transport resulted in 270 Mt CO2 emissions. In addition, we estimate that oil and gas operations resulted in the extraction of around 130 Mt of naturally occurring CO2 that was vented to the atmosphere. Natural gas is predominantly methane, a potent GHG, and there are multiple potential sources of fugitive and vented methane emissions along the oil and gas supply chains. We estimate that upstream oil operations resulted in 45 Mt of methane emissions in 2022, upstream natural gas operations resulted in around 25 Mt and natural gas transport resulted in just over 10 Mt. In total, this is equivalent to 2.4 Gt CO 2-eq. 2 Spectrum of scope 1 and 2 emissions intensities for natural gas, 2022 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Putting these figures together, 105 kg CO 2-eq is emitted on average for each barrel of oil produced: this is 20% of the full lifecycle emissions intensity of oil. 3 Scope 1 and 2 emissions from natural gas are 65 kg CO 2-eq per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) produced, 15% of the full lifecycle emissions of natural gas. There is a strikingly broad range of emissions for different types of oil and gas production: the highest 10% of production for oil, for example, results in around four-times more scope 1 and 2 emissions than the lowest 10%. For oil, emissions intensities 2 One tonne of methane is considered to be equivalent to 30 tonnes CO 2 based on the 100‐year global warming potential (IPCC, 2021). 3 Different oil products result in different level of emissions when combusted but today’s global average array of oil products produced from a barrel of oil equivalent (boe) results in 405 kg CO 2 when combusted. Natural gas combustion results in 320 kg CO 2 per boe (around 600 kg CO 2-eq per thousand cubic metres). 50 100 150 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Upstream energy Vented CO ₂ Pipeline LNG Upstream methane Downstream methane kg CO 2 -eq per boe Billion cubic metresEmissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions Emissions intensities today PAGE | 10 I EA. CC BY 4.0. tend to be lower in places where the oil is easy to extract or where refining and consumption takes place close to the point of extraction. Intensities are also typically lower in locations that have low methane emissions or produce light oil or natural gas liquids (NGLs), which can be processed by simple refineries or bypass the refining sector entirely. For natural gas, the high energy intensity of transport means that countries that export a large share of their production as liquefied natural gas (LNG) or by long-distance pipeline tend to have a higher overall emissions intensity. Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in