自愿碳市场：处于拐点的气候融资（英文版）---世界经济论坛.pdf

The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inflection Point BRIEFING PAPER JANUARY 2023 In collaboration with Bain for example, through high-integrity carbon credits and investment in nature-positive projects. – Purchasing high-quality carbon credits from projects that remove and sequester carbon from the atmosphere to balance out truly unavoidable emissions at net zero. The voluntary carbon market (VCM) is expected to have channelled more than $1.2 billion in investment flows over 2022, helping to mitigate about 161 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon emissions 8 – but it is at an inflection point, and it has come under greater scrutiny. Is it working to deliver the promised outcomes? Should companies invest as part of their corporate decarbonization strategies? How can such investment be directed in a nature-positive direction with integrity and impact? What is the best way to scale such investments? This briefing paper provides an insight into the critical challenges delaying the market from achieving scale as well as an initial set of recommendations that corporate leaders can adopt and support to address these challenges as part of a decarbonization agenda. The paper serves as the basis for further dialogue to pave the way for wider action in 2023. The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 3 The need for a well- functioning voluntary carbon market Put simply, companies will need all available levers to achieve their targets and mitigate delivery risk. Nature offers one of the most effective near-term means of reducing emissions. To decarbonize without addressing nature loss will fail to capture some of the lowest-risk decarbonization solutions available. Additionally, investing today in engineered solutions will help reduce the green premium for solutions that will be critical to achieving corporate decarbonization strategies and limiting warming to a 1.5-degree trajectory. The IPCC has clearly stated that carbon removals will be critical to achieving this objective in the Summary for Policymakers of the Sixth Assessment Report. 9 Whether through a voluntary or compliance market structure that evolves over time, companies will need to use limited offset solutions to balance their unavoidable residual emissions. Carbon credits are the essential “net” in net zero to balance carbon accounts between emissions and reductions. 1 Meeting corporate commitments to deliver net-zero pathways represents a material challenge for all companies. Voluntary carbon markets will be important to go the last mile, i.e. neutralize the last 10% of emissions that can’t be further reduced. Business Vice-President, Energy and Climate, Chemical Company Bottom-up analysis of the 2,000 leading global companies by Bain “Does your company claim ‘carbon neutrality’ (or an equivalent term) before reaching net zero?” (n=130); “Which are the complexities that you face/foresee on your engagement with voluntary carbon markets?” (n=127). Source: Voluntary Carbon Markets Survey (n=137); Voluntary Carbon Market interviews The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 8 Five key recommendations to scale responsible engagement in the carbon market 3 To bring the market to its full potential and accelerate climate action, wider private- sector participation with credible near-term decarbonization plans is needed. Companies should step up and commit to meaningful procurement (or generation) and subsequent retirement of high-quality carbon credits that support the environmental and societal benefits beyond their value chain. To help scale meaningful climate action using carbon markets, it is recommended that climate leaders follow five critical steps. Step 1: Set a decarbonization pathway aligned with scientific recommendations to ensure demand- side credibility in the use of carbon credits Companies with credible near-term decarbonization plans need to communicate how offsets will be integrated into those decarbonization plans and will complement, not replace, direct carbon abatement. Step 2: Acknowledge the urgency of protecting natural carbon sinks and other high-integrity community- based projects Companies should integrate their nature and climate strategies into the core of their decarbonization efforts. Doing so is an economically rational lever for any chief executive officer or board that can be part of a broader nature-positive sustainability endeavour, while delivering on other goals such as biodiversity and community development. Step 3: Adopt and scale leading standards and practices critical to improving quality and establishing credibility of corporate credit use (e.g. the ICVCM or the VCMI) There is need for common global standards and more independent third-party verifiers to provide certainty about carbon credits and their use. Yet the slow pace at which standards are evolving and projects are certified has constrained stakeholders’ ability to respond. This could push some companies to seek new standards, which consequently leads Leadership will be critical in driving the voluntary carbon market into its next chapter. The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 9 to market fragmentation. Market infrastructure needs to be credible and quickly scalable to work. Step 4: Create market transparency through corporate disclosures on climate and nature impact, project types, pricing and transaction costs and flows Lack of transparency of capital and credit flows creates uncertainty about the actual impact of the market. Participants need to find the right approach to disclosure and compliance that allows scaling and innovation, which may include non-identifiable disclosure aggregation, being more prescriptive in their sourcing strategies, using independent ratings and tapping new technology-based solutions such as measurement, reporting and verification (MRV). Step 5: Amplify corporate commitments to immediate participation at scale through collective action to establish credibility while signalling demand to the market A collective approach that aligns on credible strategies and focuses on the highest-quality credits can mitigate the risk of perceived greenwashing. It sends a strong signal of support for climate action beyond value chains, which puts corporates on the front foot with their climate change strategies. This helps to encourage more market participation and creates clear demand signals. It will take years for the market and standards to mature, so industry- specific alignment is needed to agree on the right direction while meeting the imperative for individual and collective climate action today. Strong uptake and trust in VCMs Limited traction in VCMs 0.2 Gt 2.6 Gt Current 2030 potential scenarios Progressive enhancements in VCMs VCM impact potential (in CO 2 e) Set a decarbonization pathway aligned with scientific recommendations to ensure demand-side credibility in the use of carbon credits 01 Acknowledge the urgency of protecting natural carbon sinks and other high-integrity community based projects 02 Adopt and scale leading standards and practices critical to improving quality and establishing credibility of corporate credit use (e.g. the ICVCM or the VCMI) 03 Create market transparency through corporate disclosures on climate and nature impact, project types, pricing and transaction costs and flows 04 Amplify corporate commitments to immediate participation at scale through collective action to establish credibility while signalling demand to the market 05 Five actions to drive meaningful participation in the voluntary carbon marketFIGURE 3 Source: Voluntary Carbon Markets Survey (n=137); Voluntary Carbon Market interviews; Bain Net- Zero Tracker; Refinitiv; CDP; IEA; EnerData; World Bank Carbon Pricing Dashboard; Bain Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum, Switzerland Nasim Pour Lead, Carbon Removals and Market Innovation, World Economic Forum, Switzerland Bain The United Nations’ High-Level Expert Group on the Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities, Integrity Matters: Net Zero Commitments by Businesses, Financial Institutions, Cities and Regions, 2022: https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/ high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf. 8. Trove Research, “Trove Research 3Q22 Voluntary Carbon Market Webinar”, YouTube, 27 October 2022: https://youtu.be/ Wi9uVW4DwKE?t=808. 9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sixth Assessment Report: Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers, 4 April 2022: https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_HeadlineStatements.pdf. 10. Bain De Haldevang, Max, “BP Paid Rural Mexicans a ‘Pittance’ for Wall Street’s Favorite Climate Solution”, Bloomberg, 27 June 2022: https://www.bloomberg. com/features/2022-carbon-offset-credits-mexico-forest-bp/?leadSource=uverify%20wall. 15. The United Nations’ High-Level Expert Group on the Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities, Integrity Matters: Net Zero Commitments by Businesses, Financial Institutions, Cities and Regions, November 2022: https://www. un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf. 16. Allen, Myles, Kaya Axelsson, Ben Caldecott, et al., The Oxford Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon Offsetting, September 2020: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-01/Oxford-Offsetting-Principles-2020.pdf. 17. Ibid. Endnotes The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 14 World Economic Forum 91–93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0) 22 786 2744 contact@weforum.org www.weforum.org The World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.