欧洲电力回顾（2023）European Electricity Review 2023.pdf

European Electricity Review 2023 Ember’s analysis of the EU electricity transition in 2022: what happened in 2022, what can we expect for 2023? Publication date 31 January 2023 About The European Electricity Review analyses full-year electricity generation and demand data for 2022 in all EU-27 countries to understand the region’s progress in transitioning from fossil fuels to clean electricity. It is the seventh annual report on the EU power sector published by Ember (previously as Sandbag). Our data is free and easily downloadable, and is available at annual and monthly granularity. We hope others also find the data useful for their own analysis. Lead author Dave Jones Other contributors Sarah Brown, Paweł Czyżak, Hannah Broadbent, Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Reynaldo Dizon, Matt Ewen, Nicolas Fulghum, Libby Copsey, Alison Candlin, Chris Rosslowe and Harriet Fox. Disclaimer The information in this report is complete and correct to the best of our knowledge, but if you spot an error, please email info@ember-climate.org Creative Commons This report is published under a Creative Commons ShareAlike Attribution Licence (CC BY-SA 4.0). You are actively encouraged to share and adapt the report, but you must credit the authors and title, and you must share any material you create under the same licence. Copyright © Ember, 2023 2 Contents 4 Executive Summary 8 Chapter 1 | Pathway for 1.5C 10 Chapter 2 | The Big Picture 32 Chapter 3 | EU Electricity Trends 33 Electricity Demand 37 Power Sector CO2 Emissions 44 Electricity Generation 45 Chapter 4 | Electricity Source Trends 46 Solar 50 Wind 54 Coal 58 Gas 62 Hydro 66 Nuclear 70 Bioenergy 74 Conclusion 75 Supporting Materials 3 Highlights 4 +3% -20% Months of falling coal power generation since September. Rise in EU fossil generation in 2022. Predicted fall in EU fossil generation in 2023. Executive Summary Europe’s electricity transition emerges from the energy crisis stronger than ever Coal generation has been falling since the start of winter, and as the electricity transition heats up, falling fossil fuel power—especially gas—is set to be the story of 2023. Europe’s political response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was to accelerate its electricity transition. There is now a focus on rapidly cutting gas demand—at the same time as phasing out coal. This means a massive scale-up in clean energy is on its way. In 2022, wind and solar generated a record fifth of EU electricity (22%), for the first time overtaking fossil gas (20%), and remaining above coal power (16%). However, the shift away from fossil fuels was put on hold by the twin crises in Europe’s electricity system in 2022. A 1-in-500 year drought across Europe led to the lowest level of hydro generation since at least 2000, and there were widespread unexpected French nuclear outages just as German nuclear units were closing. This created a large 185 TWh gap in generation, equal to 7% of Europe’s total electricity demand in 2022. Five-sixths of the gap was made up by more wind and solar generation and a fall in electricity demand. But the remaining sixth was met by increased fossil generation. Since coal was less expensive than gas, coal accounted for the majority of the increase, rising 7% (+28 TWh) in 2022, compared to 2021. As a result, EU power sector emissions rose by 3.9% (+26 MtCO2) in 2022 compared to 2021. Gas generation was almost unchanged (+0.8%), and because gas was already more expensive than coal in 2021, there was no further switching from gas into coal in 2022. It could have been much worse: wind, solar and a fall in electricity demand prevented a much larger return to coal. In context, the rise was not substantial: coal power increased by just 1.5 percentage points to generate 16% of EU electricity in 2022, remaining below 2018 levels. The 28 TWh rise in EU’s coal generation added only 0.3% to global coal generation. 2023 will be quite the opposite. Hydro generation will rebound, French nuclear units will return, wind and solar deployment will accelerate, and electricity demand will likely continue to fall over the coming months. In 2023, Europe is set to witness a huge fall in fossil fuels— of coal power, yes, but especially gas power. Europe’s coal power is now falling Coal generation fell in all four of the final months of 2022. It dropped by 6% (-9.6 TWh) from September to December compared to the same months in 2021. This was primarily caused by falling electricity demand. The 26 coal units brought back as emergency standby ran at just 18% average utilisation throughout Q4 2022; nine of the 26 units did not provide any generation. These standby additions 01 5 added only 0.9% to EU coal generation in 2022. Despite importing 22 million tonnes of extra coal throughout 2022, the EU only used a third of this and the surplus two-thirds remained unused. Perhaps most encouragingly, countries remain as committed to phasing out coal as they were before the crisis. Electricity demand started to fall fast EU electricity demand has begun to fall fast—dropping by 7.9% in Q4 2022 compared to the same period the previous year—close in scale to the 9.6% fall witnessed in Q2 2020 when Europe was in lockdown. This trend was observed in all EU countries. Prior to October, the fall was much less notable. All three months of Q4 2022 were warmer than in 2021, but weather alone would not explain such large falls. It is likely that temporary cuts were driven largely by affordability concerns, alongside solidarity by many citizens to cut energy demand in a time of crisis and improvements in energy efficiency. The transition will ultimately bring a major rise in demand through electrification. And with the step up in heat pumps, EVs and electrolysers in 2022, it is apparent that this change will happen quickly. We must not allow the current fall in demand to slow down the roll-out of clean energy. Solar’s surge is only just starting Solar generation rose by a record 39 TWh (+24%) in 2022, helping to avoid €10 billion in gas costs. This was due to record installations of 41 GW in 2022, 47% more than was added in 2021. Twenty EU countries achieved their highest ever share of solar electricity. The Netherlands was the leader, producing 14% of its power from solar— overtaking coal generation for the first time. Greece ran solely on renewables for five hours in October and is expected to reach its 2030 solar capacity target of 8 GW by the end of 2023, seven years early. For the first time, wind and solar reached over a fifth (22%) of EU electricity in 2022. 02 03 6 “Europe has avoided the worst of the energy crisis. The shocks of 2022 only caused a minor ripple in coal power and a huge wave of support for renewables. Any fears of a coal rebound are now dead. Europe’s clean power transition emerges from this crisis stronger than ever. Not only are European countries still committed to phasing out coal, they are now striving to phase out gas as well. The energy crisis has undoubtedly sped up Europe’s electricity transition. Europe is hurtling towards a clean, electrified economy, and this will be on full display in 2023. Change is coming fast, and everyone needs to be ready for it.” Dave Jones Head of Data Insights, Ember Gas generation set for a record fall in 2023 Fossil generation rose 3% in 2022. Based on the latest industry projections, this will not be repeated in 2023. EDF forecasts many of its French nuclear plants will return in 2023 (and many are already back online already), Europe’s wind and solar industry groups show solar and wind generation should rise by about 20%, hydro stocks have nearly normalised and electricity demand will likely continue to fall in the short term. The only brakes will be the fall in nuclear as Germany completes its phase-out. Based on these indications from the industry, Ember estimates that fossil generation could plummet by 20% in 2023, double the previous record from 2020. Coal generation will fall, but gas generation will fall the fastest, since it is expected to remain more expensive than coal until at least 2025 based on current forward prices. The power sector is likely to be the fastest falling segment of gas demand during 2023, helping to bring calm to European gas markets as Europe adjusts to life without Russian gas. 04 7 Chapter 1 | Pathway for 1.5C Shifting to clean electricity by 2035 Transforming Europe’s electricity sector will be a critical part of building a new energy system that addresses the triple crisis of climate, energy security and affordability. Action this decade is critical, not only to address the immediate fossil fuel crisis, but to quickly bend the curve on emissions. This is a necessity if Europe is to make a fair contribution to the goals of the Paris Agreement. Decarbonising and expanding Europe’s electricity supply is the most effective way to displace fossil fuels across the economy, reducing reliance on imported energy. The good news is all the technologies required to supercharge the transition are available and affordable, with wind and solar power forming the backbone of the transition. There is ample evidence that Europe must achieve a fully decarbonised power system by the mid 2030s for a pathway that keeps 1.5C in reach. This conclusion is reached both by the IEA Net Zero roadmap and an assessment of the latest climate models used by the IPCC. The UK and Germany are already aiming for completely decarbonised power by 2035 and the G7 have set a similar target, however a unified signal from Europe and the EU is lacking. Modelling by Ember shows that this is possible. Europe can achieve a clean power system by 2035; at no extra cost above stated plans and without compromising security of supply. Making this vision a reality will require investment above and beyond existing plans, as well as immediate action to address barriers to the expansion of clean energy infrastructure. Such a mobilistion would boost the European economy, cement the EU’s position as a climate leader and send a vital international message that these challenges can be overcome. 9 Chapter 2 | The Big Picture Insights The biggest stories of 2022: the return to coal that wasn’t, winter demand collapse and solar’s surge. And looking forward, 2023 should be the year that the full scale of the transition becomes clear. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was immediately obvious that Europe’s energy system would have to change forever. Some expected that this new geopolitical landscape would mean that the transition from fossil fuels to clean power would be put on pause. Instead, the EU made an ambitious energy transition an immediate priority, central to its response to multiple emerging crises. Across Europe, the cost of fossil fuel reliance came into focus, with attention on how this fed into security vulnerabilities and cost of living increases, as well as unprecedented disasters stemming from extreme weather. Annual power sector data reflects the impact of these crises, but indicators looking towards the next year suggest that 2022 was the start of a profound shift that will continue long beyond the emergency responses of the moment. Insight 1: The fallacy of Europe’s “return to coal” The background to Europe’s “return to coal” When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it quickly became apparent that Europe was facing a gas crisis. There were numerous, rapid responses at an EU and Member State level to mitigate the risks and reduce the scale of the crisis. Among a host of other measures, these included reactivating coal units, importing more coal and diversifying fossil fuel supplies. Combined with rising coal generation at the start of summer (the EU’s coal burn in March was 35% higher than in March 2021), this created international speculation that Europe was “returning to coal”. The background to Europe’s “return to coal” Coal power has been in structural decline in the EU for the past decade. Even with the rise in 2022, coal generation was still 37% below 2015 levels, producing just 16% of the EU’s electricity. The temporary uptick in 2022 was a small bump in the path to phasing out coal in Europe, with a wider view showing why it is inaccurate to say Europe “returned to coal”. The winter coal surge did not materialise EU coal generation fell in each of the last four months of 2022, compared to the same months in 2021. In September it fell by 2%, October by 13%, November by 7% and December by 2%. Across the fourth quarter of 2022, this meant a fall of 7% in EU coal generation. Gas generation fell even further over the same period, by 10%. The fall in coal power this winter was due to a major decrease in electricity demand. This can be attributed to the efforts of households and industry to reduce electricity consumption, combined with mild weather. Had French nuclear power not seen reduced generation persist well into December, the falls in coal in Q4 would undoubtedly have been even greater. Insight 2 provides more detail on this decline in demand. The winter coal surge did not materialise 11 Across the year, total EU coal generation rose by 7% in 2022 compared to 2021. There were large rises in coal generation earlier in the year, as high as 35% in March 2022 versus March 2021. While many commentators speculated this early trend could continue into winter, the opposite happened. Low hydro and nuclear generation drove rise in coal burn Understanding coal’s 7% rise as part of the response to the shortfall in nuclear and hydro puts it into perspective. Nuclear and hydro generation in 2022 fell by 185 TWh compared to the previous year, six times more than coal’s rise in generation (28 TWh). To give some context of the scale, 185 TWh is equal to 7% of the EU’s total generation in 2022. Five-sixths of the gap from nuclear and hydro was met by increased wind and solar generation and falling electricity demand, whereas only one-sixth was made up from increased coal generation. Gas generation was almost unchanged (+0.8%). Low hydro and nuclear generation drove rise in coal burn 12 While any rise in coal causes understandable alarm, coal had a relatively minor role in responding to these shortfalls. And given that these are not recurring factors, 2023 is likely to play out very differently [see Insight 4]. The shortfall in hydro power In 2022, Europe faced its worst drought in at least 500 years, pushing hydro generation to its lowest level since at least 2000. Hydro generation was 66 TWh below 2021, leading to a 19% year-on-year fall, from 349 TWh in 2021 to 283 TWh in 2022. 2021 was slightly wetter than average, however hydropower generation in 2022 was 50 TWh below the 2000-2021 average. The Alpine region was the worst hit, with generation 9% below the lowest year so far this century. The Iberian region saw the fourth lowest level of hydro generation this century, and the Nordic region saw generation slightly above average. Of the 50 TWh shortfall against average