中国碳市场与电力市场化改革---IEA.pdf

Page 1 Emissions Trading System and Power Markets Reform 中国碳市场与电力市场化 改革 Key findings from IEA-Tsinghua report Enhancing China’s ETS for Carbon Neutrality: Focus on Power Sector 国际能源署- 清华大学 联合报 告 《加 强中 国 碳市 场 助力 实 现碳 中 和： 聚 焦电 力 部门 》 主要结 论 David FISCHER, Project Coordinator, Environment and Climate Change Unit, IEA 21 September 2022IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 2 • In September 2020, President Xi Jinping annouced that China have CO 2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 • 2020 年9 月，习近平主席宣布中国将“力争二氧化碳排放于2030 年前达到峰值、努力争取2060 年前实现碳中和” • Chin a ’ s national ETS came into operation in July 2021. 99.5% compliance rate for the 1 st compliance period • 中国全国碳市场于2021 年7 月启动交易. 碳市场第一个履约期履约率99.5% • Currently covers the power sector which emits around 4.5 Gt CO 2 annually (~40% of Chin a ’ s energy sector CO 2 emissions) • 目前，中国碳市场纳入发电行业，每年覆盖约45亿吨二氧化碳排放量（约占中国能源体系二氧化碳排放量的40% ） • Allowance price: ~CNY 40-60/t CO 2 (USD 6-8/t CO 2 ) • 碳排放配额交易价格 ：~40-60 元/ 吨二氧化碳 （6-8 美元/ 吨二氧化碳） • Output- and intensity-based allowance allocation with emission intensity benchmarks for four categories of coal- and gas- fired units, without a predetermined emissions cap • 中国碳市场采用 基 于 实 际产出和排放强度的基准法 ，根据四类煤电和气电机组类别设定碳排放强度基准分配配额，不预先设定排 放总量上限 • Free allocation, possibility to introduce auctions in the future • 碳市场初期免费分配 配额，未来可能引入配额拍卖机制 China’s national emissions trading system (ETS) in the context of the dual carbon goals 双碳目标下的中国全国碳市场IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 3 Carbon pricing makes lower-carbon generation more cost-competitive 碳价机制使相对低碳的发电技术 更具成 本竞 争力 Under economic dispatch, internalisation of the carbon cost strengthens cost-competitiveness of lower-carbon technologies and drives fuel switching 在 经 济 调度 下 ，纳入碳排放成本将提高相对低碳的发电技术的成本竞争力，推动低碳能源对高碳能源的替代 Merit order and fuel switching under carbon pricing 碳价下的电力经济调度优先顺序与燃料替代 Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas Peakers Emissions cost Demand (MW) 供电需求 Demand (MW) 供电需求 Demand Demand Without carbon pricing 无碳价 With carbon pricing 实施碳价 Price Price Consumption Consumption Marginal cost (CNY/MWh) 发电边际成本 Marginal cost (CNY/MWh) 发电边际成本 煤电 气电 核电 可再生能源发电 调峰机组 碳排放成本IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 4 Emissions reductions channels through carbon pricing 碳 价 机 制 促 进减排 的主要 途径 Challenges with regulated power market 受 政 府 管 制 电力市 场下面 临的挑 战 Prioritize lower-carbon generation sources in dispatch decisions as carbon price makes lower-carbon generation more cost-competitive 碳价使相对低碳的发电技术更具成本 竞争力 ，从而在电力调度决策中提 高 较 低 碳 发 电技术 的优先 级 Administratively determined dispatch may not (fully) integrate the carbon price signal in dispatch decisions 通过行政决策决定的电力调度可能无法将碳价格信号（完 全） 纳 入到 调 度决策中 Incentivizes investment in low-carbon technologies and assets by increasing their profitability vis-à-vis carbon intensive assets, while encouraging early retirement of the latter 通过提高低碳技术和资产相对于高碳 资产的 盈利能 力，激励对低碳技术 和资产的投资 ，同时推动高碳资产提前退出 Regulated pricing limits carbon pricing’s effectiveness in making low- carbon alternatives more profitable and attractive for investors 受管制的定价机制可能削弱碳价在提高低碳技术 利 润和 投 资吸 引 力方 面 的 有效性 Encourage efficiency in end use and demand reduction as the carbon price is passed through to consumers 随着碳价信号传导向消费者，激励终端能效提升和用能需 求减 少 Regulated pricing limits pass-through of the carbon price signal and its incentive for demand reduction 受管制的定价机制限制了碳价格信号的传 导 及其对需求侧响应的激励 Lack of carbon cost pass-through could put generators with existing fossil generation assets in financial difficulty 无法传导碳成本可能会使经营现有化 石发电 资产的 企业陷 入 财务困境 Power markets reform essential for ETS effectiveness 电力市场化改革对碳市场的政策 效果影 响重 大IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 5 Scenario 情景 Emissions Trading System (ETS) 碳市场 Power Market Reform 电力体制改革 Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 可 再 生 能 源 配额制 Counterfactual Scenario 反事实对照情景 RPS 可再生能源配额制情景 No emissions trading system 无碳排放权交易制度 Economic dispatch from 2025 自2025 年起实施 经济调度 Inclusion of interprovincial trade 考虑跨省电力交易 Same non-hydro renewables share target 非水可再生能源占比目标 各情景中目标保持一致 Current Policy Scenario 当前政策情景 RPS-ETS 可再生能源配额制- 碳市场情景 Intensity-based ETS with free allocation (as implemented in China) 基于排放强度、免费分配配额的碳市 场 （如中国当前实施的碳市场设计） Enhanced ETS (ETS+) Scenarios 碳市场加强情景 ETS+BM 碳市场+ 基准收紧情景 Intensity-based ETS with strong tightening of the coal benchmarks used for allocation of allowances 基于强度的碳市场，大幅收紧用于配 额分配 的煤电 基准 ETS+Auction 碳市场+ 拍卖情景 Intensity-based ETS with introduction of auctioning 基于强度的碳市场，引入部分配额拍 卖 ETS+Cap 碳市场+ 总量控制情景 Cap-and-trade ETS with free allocation 设有碳排放总量上限、免费分配配额 的碳市 场 Scenario design 情景设计IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 6 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mt CO ₂ RPS RPS-ETS 103% 93% 80% 95% In % of 2020 emissions ： 较2020 年排放量： Enhancements in ETS design can accelerate electricity sector alignment with a carbon neutrality trajectory 加强碳市场设计可推动发电行业排放轨迹更符合碳中和目标的需要 Electricity sector emissions peak before 2030 with current RPS and ETS policies… 在 当 前 可再生能源配额制和碳市场政策的作用下，电力部门二氧化碳排放可在2030年前达峰 CO 2 emissions trajectory from electricity generation by scenario, 2020-2035 2020-2035 年各情景下的电力部门二氧化碳排放轨迹IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 7 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mt CO ₂ RPS RPS-ETS ETS+ 103% 93% 80% 62% 89% 95% … while ETS design enhancements can double the CO 2 reduction of the RPS-ETS Scenario 加 强 碳 市场设计可使二氧化碳减排量较可再生能源配额制-碳市场情景中翻倍 CO 2 emissions trajectory from electricity generation by scenario, 2020-2035 2020-2035 年各情景下的电力部门二氧化碳排放轨迹 In % of 2020 emissions ： 较2020 年排放量： Enhancements in ETS design can accelerate electricity sector alignment with a carbon neutrality trajectory 加强碳市场设计可推动发电行业排放轨迹更符合碳中和目标的需要IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 8 ETS and power market reform synergy in driving efficiency improvement and fuel switching 碳市场和电力市场改革协同提高发电效率并推动燃料替代 Stringent ETS benchmarks drive efficiency and CCUS; auctioning and a cap encourage fuel switching 严 格 的 碳市场强度基准将推动能效提升和CCUS 技术；配额拍卖和总量控制将鼓励燃料替代 Additional emissions reductions by type compared with the counterfactual RPS Scenario, 2025-2035 2025-2035 年各情景相比于可再生能源配额制情景的额外减排量分解 -1 500 -1 000 - 500 0 RPS-ETS RPS-ETS ETS+BM ETS+Auction ETS+Cap RPS-ETS ETS+BM ETS+Auction ETS+Cap 2025 2030 2035 Switch from fossil to non-fossil technologies Coal-to-gas switch Switch from unabated coal to coal with CCUS Coal fleet efficiency improvements Mt CO 2 化石能源转向非化石 能源发电 煤电转向气电 煤电配备CCUS 煤电平均效率提升IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 9 Enhanced ETS accelerates transition of the generation mix 强化碳市场设计将加速发电结 构转型 All Enhanced ETS designs accelerate phase-down of unabated coal but lead to very different generation mixes 各 碳 市 场加强方案都将加速未配备CCUS 的煤电的逐步减少，但将推动电力结构向不同方向转型 Electricity generation mix by technology and scenario, 2020-2035 2020-2035年各情景下的发电结构 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ETS+Cap ETS+Auction ETS+BM RPS-ETS ETS+Cap ETS+Auction ETS+BM RPS-ETS RPS-ETS RPS-ETS Coal Coal with CCUS Gas Nuclear Hydro Non-hydro renewables Targeted RPS share (non-hydro) 18.7% 25.9% 36.0% 2030 2035 2025 2020 非水可再生能源发电消纳目标 煤电 配备CCUS 的煤电 气电 核电 水电 非水可再生能源发电 2035 RPS target 2035年非水可 再生能 源消纳 目标IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 10 ETS design opportunities for driving cost-effective transition 碳市场为推动更经济有效的低 碳转型 提供机 遇 Cap-and-trade ETS could achieve more than 800 Mt additional CO 2 emissions reductions at no additional cost 碳市场+总量控制情景可在2035 年系统总成本与当前政策情景相同的情况下，额外减少8亿吨的二氧化碳排放 Total system cost by scenario, 2035 2035年各情景下的系统总成本 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 RPS-ETS ETS+BM ETS+Auction (excluding auctioning cost) ETS+Cap billion CNY Difference compared to RPS-ETS 较可再生能源配额制- 碳市场情景成本差 异 +5.2% 0% +1.4%IEA 2022. All rights reserved. Page 11 Conclusion 总结 • Strong synergy between national ETS and power markets reform for promoting the use of efficient generation sources and driving low-carbon and cost-effective transition in the power sector • 全 国 碳 市场和电力体制改革 在推动高效发电技术和经济有效地推动电力行业低碳转型方面 有强协同作用 • Timely power markets reform on dispatch and pricing mechanisms important for national ETS effectiveness • 及时对电力调度和定价机制等方面进行市场化改革 对 全 国 碳市场的有效性十分重要 • An enhanced ETS can accelerate electricity sector alignment with a carbon neutrality trajectory • 加强碳市场设计 可 推 动 发电行业排放轨迹更符合碳中和目标的需要 • The ETS can drive emissions reductions through different channels: stringent emissions intensity benchmarks mostly drive efficiency improvements and CCUS deployment; auctioning and a cap encourage fuel switching to renewables • 在 不 同 的设计下，碳市场通过不同的机制推动减排 ：严格的碳市场强度基准主要推动能效提升和CCUS 技术，配额拍卖和排放 总量控制将鼓励燃料替代 • Policy cost-effectiveness depends on ETS design: transition to a cap-and-trade system can achieve the highest cost- effectiveness by prioritising the lowest-cost abatement opportunities, especially fuel switching to renewables • 碳 市 场 的经济效益将取决于其政策设计 ：过渡到基于总量控制的碳市场设计在推动电力低碳转型方面可实现更高的经济效益， 因为这一设计将优先推动成本最低的减排机会，特别是可再生能源替代化石能源 • Introducing partial allowance auctioning or a cap-and-trade ETS can help achieve renewables deployment targets by providing the required financial incentive • 通过引入配额拍卖或设置严格的排放总量上限， 碳 市 场 可提供实现可再生能源进一步增长目标所需的经济激励IEA 2022. 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