20221202 2022能效报告 IEA EnergyEfficiency2022.pdf

Energy Efficiency 2022The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYEnergy Efficiency 2022 Abstract PAGE | 3 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Abstract Energy Efficiency 2022 is the IEA’s primary annual analysis on global developments in energy efficiency markets and policy. It explores recent trends in energy intensity, demand and efficiency-related investment, innovation, policy and technology while also discussing key questions facing policy makers. This year record-high consumer energy bills and securing reliable access to supply are urgent political and economic imperatives for almost all governments. In response to the energy crisis countries are prioritising energy efficiency action due to its ability to simultaneously meet affordability, supply security and climate goals. While efficiency investment has recently been increasing to reach new record levels, the pace of global energy intensity improvements had noticeably slowed in the second half of the last decade and virtually stalled during the first two years of Covid-19. With efforts to better manage energy consumption as a result of the crisis increasing the rate of improvement once more, the question as to whether 2022 will see a sustained efficiency turning point, and what more can be done, are key themes of this year’s report. Energy Efficiency 2022 Acknowledgements PAGE | 4 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Acknowledgements Energy Efficiency 2022 was prepared by the Energy Efficiency Division (EEfD) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) under the leadership of Brian Motherway, Head of EEfD, and Kevin Lane, Senior Programme Manager. The report was led and coordinated by Nicholas Howarth. Other lead authors were Jack Miller, Emma Mooney, Ksenia Petrichenko, Alison Pridmore, Cornelia Schenk, and Fabian Voswinkel. Major contributions were made by Conor Gask, Pauline Henriot, Orestis Karampinis, Natalie Kauf, Sungjin Oh and Monica Troilo, along with Andika Akbar, Paola Cajamarca, Edith Bayer, Emi Bertoli, Clara Camasara, Celine Gelis, Manuel Portilla Paveri, Matthieu Prin, Vida Rozite, Hugo Salamanca, Melanie Slade and Seohee Song. Diane Munro carried editorial responsibility for the report. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security (EMS), provided strategic guidance and input to this work. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance were provided by other senior managers within the IEA and, in particular, Laura Cozzi, Tim Gould, Timur Guel and Nick Johnstone. Data and analysis from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report, particularly from Roberta Quadrelli, Domenico Lattanzio, Alexandre Bizeul, Jungyu Park, Arnau Risquez Martin, Pouya Taghavi-Maghavi, Pedro Carvalho, Juha Köykkä and Suzy Leprince. Analysis and input from the IEA World Energy Outlook, Tracking Clean Energy Progress, World Energy Investment, Energy Technology Perspectives and Sustainable Recovery Tracker teams was essential to this work. Particular thanks go to Daniel Wetzel, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Timothy Goodson, Mathilde Huismans, Yannick Monschauer, Chiara Delmastro, Tiffany Vass, Tanguy De Bienassis, Jacob Teter, Blandine Barreau and Leonardo Paoli. Other IEA colleagues who made important contributions include: Jean-Baptiste Le Marois, Simon Bennett, Sylvia Beyer, Toril Bosoni, Joel Couse, Rebecca Gaghen, Gergely Molnar, Yasmina Abdelilha, Jeremy Moorhouse and Francois Briens. Thanks also goes to colleagues at the OECD Daniel Sanchez Serra, Arnaud Benoit and Pierre- Alain Pionner. Colleagues at the Energy Efficiency Hub who provided helpful comments and support to the project included Jonathan Sinton and Kristina Klimovich. Other helpful research, support and advice was provided by Mitsidi Projetos, Marianne Pearson and Ian Skinner (TEPR), Thomas Nowak (EHPA), Ian Hamilton, and Professor Amory Lovins (Stanford University). We would also like to recognise advice and input from Simon Black, Karlygash Zhunussova, Ian Parry, Dora Energy Efficiency 2022 Acknowledgements PAGE | 5 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Iakova, Philip Barrett, Nate Vernon, Nicolas Arregui and Jing Zhou from the International Monetary Fund. The report would not have been possible without Jad Mouawad, Head of the Communications and Digital Office (CDO), and his team who were responsible for production and launch support, especially Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, Rob Stone, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Therese Walsh. The report was made possible by assistance from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan. Peer reviewers Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Rasmus Kristensen Danfoss Alex Ablaza Asia-Pacific ESCO Industry Alliance Peter Bach Danish Energy Agency Jeferson Soares Energy Research Office, Brazil Martin Bornholdt DENEFF Paolo Ceccherini Signify Robert Deegan Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, Ireland Saurabh Diddi Bureau of Energy Efficiency, India Yaroslav Dobrovolskii Signify Lesley Dowling Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Australia Bilal Düzgün Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Türkiye Lynette Dray University College London Christine Egan CLASP Wolfgang Eichammer Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research) Mark Ellis Mark Ellis APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; and NZE = Net Zero Emissions Scenario. Global energy demand growth has declined sharply and is expected to be close to 1% this year. This comes after last year’s 5% increase; one of the largest single- year rises in 50 years. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2001-2010 2011-2015 2016-2019 2020 2021 2022E 2021-2030 STEPS 2021-2030 APS 2021-2030 NZE Primary energy intensity improvementEnergy Efficiency 2022 Executive summary PAGE | 9 I EA. CC BY 4.0. This year’s improvement in intensity comes after the onset of Covid-19 led to two of the worst years ever for global energy intensity progress, with annual gains falling to around half of one percentage point in 2020 and 2021. Key factors included a higher share of energy-intensive industry in energy demand and slower efficiency progress, especially in the buildings and industrial sectors. However, energy intensity progress had already slowed before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 13 of the G20 group of countries and improved in only four. From 2010 to 2020, the global rate of improvement fell from 2% in the first half of the decade to 1.3% in the second half. This highlights the challenge of re- accelerating efficiency progress to the 4% needed each year to 2030 under the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (Net Zero Scenario). With consumers reducing energy consumption in an effort to rein in costs, this year’s energy intensity improvement cannot entirely be viewed as a step forward. Businesses are under pressure to close or curtail operations and many people across the world are struggling to afford basic energy needs. The number of people without reliable access to heating, cooling, clean cooking and other energy services has risen to around 2.5 billion worldwide, and an extra 160 million households have been pushed into energy poverty since 2019. High fossil fuel prices are driving a cost-of-living crisis, worsening energy poverty and public health Energy price inflation varies across countries depending on the fuel mix, the level of energy efficiency and the structure of the economy, as well as government polices such as fuel taxation and energy bill support strategies. While the current crisis is global, it is centred in Europe where reduced energy supply from Russia is exposing consumers to higher energy bills and risks of supply shortages over the winter heating months. In the European Union, consumer energy price inflation for the year to October 2022 increased to 39%, with around a quarter of households estimated to be living in energy poverty. Vulnerable groups are the most exposed and often live in older, poorer-quality buildings, using less efficient appliances and older vehicles with lower energy performance levels. This not only means they can be paying several times more for household energy bills but also suffer colder, damper, and darker living conditions which exacerbate health risks. This year has also seen a significant shift back towards using cheaper traditional biomass such as wood and charcoal for heating and cooking. Emerging and developing economies are particularly exposed. Around 75 million people who have recently gained access to electricity are estimated to have lost the ability to pay for it and 100 million people may need to switch back to using traditional Energy Efficiency 2022 Executive summary PAGE | 10 I EA. CC BY 4.0. stoves for cooking from LPG. This poses a particular health risk for women and children who are most exposed to household air pollution from cooking which in total is estimated to have contributed to 2.5 million premature deaths this year. Year-on-year change in energy price inflation, October 2022 IEA. All rights reserved. Source: OECD Database on Consumer Price Indices, as modified by the IEA. Well-targeted public spending can support the vulnerable and enhance efficiency With households and businesses facing significantly higher energy bills this year, governments in all regions have brought forward a range of interventions to provide support for consumers, including new or increased broad-based fuel subsidies as well as direct cash payments to assist households. The value of this emergency government spending is now over USD 550 billion. In emerging and developing economies, this short-term support now eclipses that provided for 3 5 8 12 16 17 17 18 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 27 27 27 28 29 29 34 39 44 48 50 53 57 59 60 63 63 71 100 137 0 25 50 75 100 125 Mexico Israel Spain Czech Republic Canada Korea Iceland United States Slovenia Slovak Republic Colombia Greece France Switzerland Chile Hungary Luxembourg Finland Portugal Sweden Norway Poland European Union – 27 … Germany Ireland Austria Denmark Latvia United Kingdom Estonia Belgium Lithuania Italy Netherlands Türkiye Percentage change over the same period previous year