2022 年可再生能源目标：设计指南（英）-IRENA.pdf

Renewable energy targets in 2022 A guide to design© IRENA 2022 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN: 978-92-9260-480-6 Citation: IRENA (2022), Renewable energy targets in 2022: A guide to design, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi (Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre) and Ute Collier, and authored by Diala Hawila, Faran Rana, Abdullah Abou Ali and Arslan Khalid (IRENA), Costanza Strinati and Sufyan Diab (former IRENA colleagues), Miquel Muñoz Cabré (Stockholm Environment Institute), David Jacobs (IET Consulting) and Toby Couture (E3 Analytics), with valuable contributions from Adrian Whiteman, Nazik Elhassan, Sonia Rueda Silva, Emanuele Bianco, Jinlei Feng, Imen Gherboudj, and Gerardo Escamilla (IRENA), Paola Pérez (Tufts University) and Michelle Benaderet (Boston University). Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Aleksandra Prodan, Álvaro López-Peña, Arieta Gonelevu Rakai, Badariah Yosiyana, Binu Parthan, Camilo Ramirez Isaza, Elizabeth Njoki Wanjiru, Ines Jacob, Joong Yeop Lee, José Torón, Kamlesh Dookayka, Kamran Siddiqui, Karanpreet Kaur, Margaret Suh, Nadia Mohammed, Petya Icheva, Paul Komor, Simon Benmarraze, Toyo Kawabata, Wilson Matekenya and Zoheir Hamedi. Valuable external review was provided by Katarina Uherova Hasbani (AESG). The report was edited by Justin French-Brooks. Cover image credits: shutterstock.com and freepic.com. IRENA is grateful for the generous support for this report provided by the Walloon government. For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org. Available for download: www.irena.org/publications. DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.3 CONTENTS SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 7 INTRODUCTION 15 1 NDCS AND OTHER COMMITMENTS TOWARDS CLIMATE OBJECTIVES 18 1.1 Momentum for global climate action and updates on NDCs since COP26 19 1.2 Net zero targets and commitments 21 1.3 Fossil fuel phase-out (phase-down) targets 25 2 RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL PLANS 29 2.1 Trends in renewable energy targets 30 2.2 Quantification and analysis of renewable energy targets in the power sector 41 3 KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR TARGET SETTING 50 3.1 Objectives and context for renewable energy target setting 52 3.2 The statistical basis for renewable energy targets 57 3.3 The scope of targets – sector coverage and end uses 60 3.4 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as a share of a mix 61 3.5 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as an absolute amount 65 3.6 Technology specificity of targets 67 3.7 Modalities for target implementation 68 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 76 ANNEX 1: METHODOLOGY 81 ANNEX 2: RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL ENERGY PLANS 82 REFERENCES 112 FIGURES 4 TABLES 5 BOXES 5 ABBREVIATIONS 64 FIGURES Figure S1 Renewable energy targets in NDCs (as of 16 October 2022) 8 Figure S2 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans, by region and country grouping 9 Figure S3 Global cumulative renewable power, installed capacity, historical trends and future projections 10 Figure S4 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region, country grouping, and technology 11 Figure S5 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting 14 Figure 1.1 CO 2 emission trajectories based on COP26 announcements and the WETO 1.5°C Scenario 18 Figure 1.2 NDCs by ambition and share of global emissions (as of 16 October 2022) 19 Figure 1.3 Renewable energy targets in NDCs (as of 16 October 2022) 20 Figure 1.4 Companies net zero targets by status as of August 2022 24 Figure 2.1 Role of targets at different stages of policy-making 29 Figure 2.2 The role of renewable energy in the energy transition 30 Figure 2.3 Hydrogen strategies, including those in preparation as of June 2022 35 Figure 2.4 Total electrolyser 2030 targets, globally, as of September 2022 36 Figure 2.5 Number of cities with renewable energy targets, by region as of the end of 2021 37 Figure 2.6 Companies with 100% renewable energy targets by sector, as of August 2022 38 Figure 2.7 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region, country grouping and technology 42 Figure 2.8 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030, by technology, total target capacity (left) and remaining target capacity (right) 43 Figure 2.9 Progress made on aggregated targets for 2030, by region, as of 2021 44 Figure 2.10 Global cumulative installed capacity of renewable power, historical trends and future projections 45 Figure 2.11 Global renewable power installed capacity in 2021, targeted capacity by 2030 and level needed as per IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario 46 Figure 2.12 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans, by region and country grouping 47 Figure 3.1 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting 51 Figure 3.2 Percentage of population with access to electricity and clean cooking to reach the targets set in SDG7 53 Figure 3.3 Factors affecting future electricity demand 57 Figure 3.4 Spectrum of renewable energy targets 71 Figure 3.5 Evolution of renewable energy targets in the European Union 73 Figure 3.6 Data needed before the setting of the target, while monitoring the progress and after the achievement of the target 74 Cover credits: ©Shutterstock.com and Freepik.com5 TABLES BOXES Table 1.1 Jurisdictions with net zero pledges, divided into high emitters (G20), low emitters (LDCs and SIDS) and others according to the Net Zero Tracker by October 2022 22 Table 1.2 Coal-phase out commitments and plans of selected countries 25 Table 3.1 Decision on the statistical basis of targets 59 Table 3.2 Decision on the scope of targets – sector coverage and end uses 60 Table 3.3 Decision on the indicator for share of total energy targets – TPES or TFEC 62 Table 3.4 Decision on the indicator for share of electricity – generation or installed capacity 63 Table 3.5 Decision on the indicator for the share of renewables in end-use targets 65 Table 3.6 Decision on the indicator for power targets - Capacity based vs. output based 66 Table 3.7 Decision on the indicator for green gas targets – output or capacity/unit based 67 Table 3.8 Decision on technology specificity of targets 68 Table 3.9 Indicators for achieving China’s 14 th FYP 69 Table 3.10 Decision on long-term and short-term targets 70 Table 3.11 Examples of data collection objectives and data needs 74 Box 1.1 Net zero targets announced by companies as of August 2022 24 Box 1.2 Six-month progress update on South Africa’s Just Transition Partnership 27 Box 2.1 The main functions of renewable energy targets 29 Box 2.2 Ecuador’s targets and policy measures to transition to electric cooking 34 Box 2.3 IRENA’s Beyond Food initiative: Clean cooking and climate action through electrification 35 Box 2.4 Renewable energy targets at the company level – the RE100 38 Box 2.5 The US government’s socio-economic aims for the deployment of renewables 40 Box 2.6 Methodology for quantifying renewable power targets and assumptions for major renewable energy players 41 Box 3.1 I ncrease in ambition of renewable energy targets in the European Union REPowerEU 54 Box 3.2 Potential socio-economic impacts of the energy transition in Africa with a comprehensive policy framework 55 Box 3.3 IRENA’s work on resource assessment 56 Box 3.4 The European Union 2020 renewable energy targets 58 Box 3.5 The United Kingdom’s Net Zero Strategy 61 Box 3.6 China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan 69 Box 3.7 Compliance with renewable energy targets and renewable portfolio standards in the European Union, the United States and the Philippines 726 ABBREVIATIONS CSP concentrated solar power ETS emissions trading system EV electric vehicle FCV fuel cell vehicle FIT feed-in tariff GIS geographic information system GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas JETS Just Energy Transition Partnership LCOE levelised cost of electricity LDC least developed countries LPG liquefied petroleum gas MENA Middle East and North Africa NDC Nationally Determined Contribution PV photovoltaic RPS renewable portfolio standards SDG Sustainable Development Goal SIDS small island developing states SWH solar water heater TFEC total final energy consumption TPES total primary energy supply WETO World energy transitions outlook UNITS OF MEASURE Gt gigatonne GW gigawatt GWh gigawatt hour kg kilogram kt kilotonne kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt hour Mtce million tonnes of coal equivalent MW megawatt MWh megawatt hour TW terawatt7 A guide to design Renewable energy targets in 2022 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WHY URGENT CHANGE IS NEEDED The summer of 2022 has given the world a glimpse of a future in which the fight against climate change has been lost. Temperatures are on the rise. July 2022 was the 46 th consecutive July and the 451 st consecutive month with temperatures exceeding the average for the 20 th century (National Centers for Environmental Information, 2022). Heatwaves caused wildfires of unprecedented severity in Europe and the United States. Drought frequency and duration have increased by nearly a third since 2000 and water restrictions have been imposed in numerous jurisdictions, including in France, the United States and southwest China. Climate change is negatively affecting harvests and pushing up food prices globally, leaving 18 million people in Africa facing the risk of severe hunger (World Economic Forum, 2022). In Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, major climate-induced flooding left almost one-third of the country submerged, washing away half the country’s crops and causing significant food shortages (BBC News, 2022). Multiple crises and the conflict in Ukraine reveal the fragility of a fossil fuel-based energy system. Food prices were already high globally, as the world grapples with record-high inflation and energy prices, partly due to the conflict in Ukraine. In the European Union, electricity prices rose to historic levels in 2022. Meanwhile, some 2.4 billion people still relied on traditional biomass for cooking in 2020 and 733 million people remained without access to electricity. In many countries, where there is access to electricity it is unreliable, slowing down socio-economic development. At the same time, supply chain disruptions, permitting and licensing issues, along with other political and regulatory barriers are impeding the development of urgently needed renewable energy projects. The focus of renewable energy policy on cost-competitiveness has led to the concentration of supply chains in a small number of countries. Trade issues and COVID-related lockdowns have disrupted the supply of key components and equipment from those countries to the rest of the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of this model and the value of localisation. These developments show the need for immediate action to increase ambition for renewable energy deployment, for climate goals, energy security and affordability, and to ensure universal basic rights such as access to energy, food and water. Recent developments also show that greater ambition is needed for the development of local supply chains that can contribute to energy security. This report sets out to support governments in designing renewable energy targets that can help achieve the pressing objectives of reducing GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels, increasing resilience to climate impacts, limiting the dependence on energy imports, and achieving universal access to clean, affordable and reliable energy. While the report focuses mainly on national-level renewable energy targets, the lessons and insights apply to targets adopted by other levels of government.8 Summary for policy makers CLIMATE PLEDGES MADE TO DATE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED TO UNLOCK THE FULL POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, WHICH REMAINS LARGELY UNTAPPED Almost all countries have signed the Paris Agreement and submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), but the collective level of ambition of the commitments made to date is still not enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement, 194 Parties have submitted NDCs. Since COP26 in November 2021, 24 countries had updated their NDCs (up to 16 October 2022), 8 out of which have updated their NDCs following the Glasgow Climate Pact that requested Parties to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their NDCs by the end of 2022. Renewable energy is one of the key components of the energy transition, but not all countries have included targets for their deployment in their NDCs. As of 16 October 2022, 183 Parties had included renewable energy components in their NDCs, of which only 143 had a quant