全球能源转型指南：电力部门——市场结构（英）-RMI.pdf

Market Structures RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity November 2022 GLOBAL GUIDE rmi.org / 2Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE About RMI RMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5°C future and secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. We work in the world’s most critical geographies and engage businesses, policymakers, communities, and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 percent by 2030. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; New York City; Oakland, California; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing. rmi.org / 3Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Authors Cara Goldenberg Ian Welch-Phillips Authors listed alphabetically. Contacts Ian Welch-Phillips, iphillips@rmi.org Cara Goldenberg, cgoldenberg@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Ian Welch-Phillips and Cara Goldenberg, Market Structures — RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity, RMI, 2022, https://rmi.org/global-energy-transformation-guide-market- structures. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. rmi.org / 4Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their helpful insights and/or feedback on this report. All errors remain our own. RMI Bev Bendix Kaitlyn Bunker Collins Dadzie Grant Glazer Leia Guccione Genevieve Lillis Jagabanta Ningthoujam Katie Siegner Charles Teplin Paula Valencia Qin Zhou Acknowledgments External Mark Ahlstrom, NextEra/Energy Systems Integration Group Emmanuel Boujieka, Power Africa West Africa Energy Program Isidro Cacho Jr., Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines Pablo Campillos, Energy Web Tony Chappel, formerly Australian Energy Market Operator Josell Co, Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines Anna Collyer, Australian Energy Market Commission Ruchika Deora, Center for New Energy Technologies Walter Graf, PJM Joanne Greenan, National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) Jo-Jo Hubbard, Electron Travis Kavulla, NRG Dominic Kelly, Australian Energy Market Operator Debra Lew, Energy Systems Integration Group Karla Rica, Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines Karen Anne Siruma, Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines Arjon Valencia, Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines rmi.org / 5Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Table of Contents About This Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Global Trends Emerging in Electricity Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Wholesale Market Liberalization . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Retail Market Formation and Liberalization . . . . . 16 Integrating Regional Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Evolving Capacity Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Wholesale Market Access for DERs . . . . . . . . . . 22 Pricing Accuracy in Wholesale Markets . . . . . . . . 25 Ancillary Market Creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Local Energy Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Key Challenges and Opportunities Facing Market Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 rmi.org / 6Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE How Market Structures Can Support Priority Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Ensure a Fair and Inclusive Energy Transition . . . . 37 Create a System Poised for Sustainable Growth . . 41 Increase Efficient Utilization of Clean Assets . . . . 42 Innovation in Market Structures across Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Developing Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Emerging Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Advanced Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Spotlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Regional Markets Driving Decarbonization and Energy Access in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Great Britain’s Forward-Thinking Ancillary Markets . . 59 Enabling DER Market Access in Australia . . . . . . . 60 Enhanced Wholesale Market Design in the Philippines . 60 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Appendix A: Electricity Submarkets . . . . 63 Appendix B: Market Liberalization . . . . . 65 Appendix C: Functions and Design of Different Wholesale Market Features . . . 67 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 rmi.org / 7Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE About This Report This report is part of RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity series, which is a research endeavor aimed at understanding where the leading edge of innovation is for forward-thinking electricity system transitions across the world. The intent of the Global Guide is to assess what new developments are in motion to secure universal access to reliable, affordable, and clean electricity by identifying key trends, exploring emerging challenges and opportunities, and sharing success stories from electricity system leaders. The series focuses on eight “catalysts for change” that our research has shown to have the greatest potential to support electricity system transformation. These catalysts are high-impact levers available to industry leaders across countries to transform the power sector. RMI plans to publish separate reports for all eight catalysts to provide more details on where the innovation edge is and where leadership is needed most. rmi.org / 8Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE This report is focused on Market Structures. Other catalysts in this series include: • Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies • System Planning and Procurement • Carbon-Free Technology • Customer Solutions • Utility Incentive Structures • Public Policies • Accessible Finance Additionally, for an introduction to this effort, explanation of the guiding framework used to frame our discussion of different catalysts, and further context on where countries are in their energy transition, we have published a complementary report titled Points of Progress — An Introduction to RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity. rmi.org / 9Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Executive Summary Electricity markets are a critical piece of the electricity system, providing the avenues for electricity generation to reach consumers. For modern electricity markets to be successful in the face of electricity access goals, decarbonization pressures, and increasingly severe reliability and resilience challenges, they will be required to not only provide reliable electricity at the least cost, but also be flexible to adapt to and accommodate new technologies and participants. Given the different stages of market maturity across the globe and the wide range of power sector priorities that markets are being designed to advance, it can be difficult for policymakers, regulators, and grid operators to know what innovative new mechanisms or reforms are most appropriate for their jurisdictions. This is especially difficult given the number of different features of electricity markets that vary across regions, including how the wholesale price of electricity is calculated, how sufficient supply is secured to meet demand, how grid services are defined and compensated, and how market participants are prevented from exercising unfair power. Many of these design decisions depend on market size, location, the policy and governance frameworks markets are operating within, generation portfolios, consumer mix, and grid operators’ resources and capacity. However, to help inform market innovation in the pursuit of sustainable development and decarbonization goals, there are several efforts across the globe that can provide helpful lessons and best practices. These include initiatives focused on: rmi.org / 10Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE • Introducing competition in wholesale and retail markets where it is beneficial for consumers to do so • Adjusting market size to increase energy access, improve electricity system efficiency, and lower prices • Properly accounting for distributed energy resources’ (DERs’) value to the grid and ensuring that DER owners and managers are compensated for their full value • Improving the accuracy of wholesale electricity pricing, particularly for efficiently utilizing existing resources, providing accurate investment signals for new assets, and improving overall grid flexibility to help integrate higher levels of renewables • Maintaining cost-effective system reliability and resilience through reforming capacity markets, and creating new ancillary service markets and ensuring that all eligible technologies can participate Regulators and grid operators have a historic opportunity to transform the electricity markets they oversee, but they do not need to chart their own paths in silos. Sharing experiences from countries across the world, from wholesale market reforms in the Philippines to market opportunities for virtual power plants in Australia, can help ensure innovations are scaled across the global power sector. rmi.org / 11Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Introduction At the heart of the electricity system lie markets, where power is purchased, sold, and traded. Nearly every kilowatt hour of electricity delivered to customers throughout the world is tracked and paid for through some form of market. The foundational goals of electricity markets, both at the wholesale and retail level, are to provide electricity reliably and at least cost to customers. Most modern markets are also designed with a third goal in mind — flexibility — which allows markets to adapt to new technologies, market participants, and policies. Historically, vertically integrated utilities have managed most electricity transactions with monopoly ownership over generation, transmission, distribution, and retail. Regulators oversaw these monopolies according to diverse, jurisdiction-specific frameworks. However, over the past 35 years, policymakers in many countries have introduced competitive markets to parts of the electricity system with the intent of reducing cost and improving reliability. Generally, competitive markets have effectively lowered costs, but due to the unique nature of the electricity system, many geographies still grapple with the benefits and risks of competitive markets — and whether competition is best for consumers given local contexts and priorities. In Exhibit 1 (on the next page), we map the status of competitive electricity markets globally in 2022. 1 For more detail, Appendix A and Appendix B explain these types of markets and terms in detail. rmi.org / 12Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Exhibit 1 Status of Markets Across the World Vertically Integrated Monopoly Vertically Integrated + Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Unbundled Transmission + IPPs/State-Owned Enterprises Wholesale Market – Regulated Retail Wholesale Market – Retail Competition In Transition No Data Canada and United States See inset See inset See inset Russia Australia Note: In some countries, such as India and China, there is a spectrum of competition in markets across different regions or provinces. This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the determination of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city, or area. Detail insets not presented at same scale. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), Steering Electricity Markets Towards a Rapid Decarbonisation. All rights reserved. rmi.org / 13Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Although the goal of reliable power has been consistent over the years, what that requires, and which resources can be relied upon, has been evolving. More severe weather events, higher levels of renewable and decentralized resources, and inadequate infrastructure have challenged grid operators’ and planners’ more traditional approaches to ensuring grid reliability. In parallel, new opportunities have been emerging to utilize demand flexibility, storage, and other technologies to optimize system operations and secure a more reliable and resilient grid. To enable flexibility in markets while also maintaining a level of consistency and predictability, grid operators and regulators are exploring how to update mechanisms and approaches to accommodate changing policy frameworks, new market participants, and diversifying grid assets. The outcomes of these endeavors have been just as important as the processes themselves, which have focused on creating space for creativity and collaboration among a wide range of stakeholders. Given these three overarching goals for modern electricity markets, this report explores where electricity market design can be innovated and improved upon to accelerate decarbonization and support sustainable development by identifying key trends, exploring emerging challenges and opportunities, and sharing success stories from electricity system innovation across the globe. rmi.org / 14Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE Global Trends Emerging in Electricity Markets Electricity markets are in a state of transition across the globe. Whether to support decarbonization, increase reliability, expand access, or lower customer costs, market design can play a significant role in helping to advance power sector priorities. The following trends are emerging across regions to advance these objectives and are driving change throughout the electricity system. Wholesale Market Liberalization Although competitive wholesale markets have been well established in many jurisdictions for decades, there are countries around the globe that are currently undergoing processes to liberalize their wholesale electricity markets. Most of these efforts have been initiated to ensure reliable and least-cost electricity while accommodating a growing level of renewable energy on the system and an increasing number of market participants. For example, in China, regulators have recently allowed non-state- owned electricity companies to participate in the wholesale market. The central government plans to build a unified electricity market system by 2030 consisting of three interactive layers — provincial, regional, and national markets. The national market will be primarily used for trans-provincial trading and connecting and trading with regional markets, promoting nationwide market integration, rmi.org / 15Market Structures GLOBAL GUIDE improved optimization of resources, and increased renewable energy consumption. 2 The national and regional markets will mostly consist of monthly or longer bilateral contracts, whereas there is more of a focus