到2050年间的能源、电力和核能发电的预测（2022年版）-IAEA.pdf

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA @ 22-03503E REFERENCE D A T A SERIES No. 1 2022 Edition Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1 2022 Edition ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050 REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1 ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050 2022 Edition INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 2022 ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050 IAEA-RDS-1/42 ISBN 978-92-0-136722-8 ISSN 1011-2642 Printed by the IAEA in Austria September 2022 Cover photo credit: Tapani Karjanlahti / TVO 2022 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION . 1 WORLD 6 Energy Overview 2021 . 7 Nuclear Power Development in 2021 9 Final Energy Consumption 14 Electricity Production . 15 Energy and Electricity Projections . 16 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 18 Reactor Retirements and Additions 20 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 22 NORTHERN AMERICA 26 Energy Overview 2021 . 27 Final Energy Consumption 28 Electricity Production . 29 Energy and Electricity Projections . 30 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 32 Reactor Retirements and Additions 34 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 36 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 38 Energy Overview 2021 . 39 Final Energy Consumption 40 Electricity Production 41 Energy and Electricity Projections . 42 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 44 Reactor Retirements and Additions 46 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 48 NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE 50 Energy Overview 2021 . 51 Final Energy Consumption 52 Electricity Production . 53 Energy and Electricity Projections . 54 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 56 Reactor Retirements and Additions 58 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 60 EASTERN EUROPE 62 Energy Overview 2021 . 63 Final Energy Consumption 64 Electricity Production . 65 Energy and Electricity Projections . 66 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 68 Reactor Retirements and Additions 70 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 72 AFRICA. 74 Energy Overview 2021 . 75 Final Energy Consumption 76 Electricity Production . 77 Energy and Electricity Projections . 78 Per Capita Energy and Electricity . 80 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 82 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 84 WESTERN ASIA 86 Energy Overview 2021 . 87 Final Energy Consumption 88 Electricity Production . 89 Energy and Electricity Projections . 90 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 92 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 94 SOUTHERN ASIA. 96 Energy Overview 2021 . 97 Final Energy Consumption 98 Electricity Production . 99 Energy and Electricity Projections . 100 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 102 Reactor Retirements and Additions 104 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 106 CENTRAL AND EASTERN ASIA . 108 Energy Overview 2021 . 109 Final Energy Consumption 110 Electricity Production . 111 Energy and Electricity Projections . 112 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 114 Reactor Retirements and Additions 116 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . 118 SOUTH-EASTERN ASIA . 120 Energy Overview 2021 . 121 Final Energy Consumption 122 Electricity Production . 123 Energy and Electricity Projections . 124 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 126 OCEANIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Energy Overview 2021 . 129 Final Energy Consumption 130 Electricity Production . 131 Energy and Electricity Projections . 132 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . 134 REFERENCES. 137 1 Introduction Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its 42nd edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. The publication is organized into world and regional subsections and starts with a summary of the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2021 based on the latest statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System. It then presents global and regional projections for energy and electricity up to 2050 derived from two international studies: the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2021 [1] and the United States Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2021 [2]. The energy and electricity data for 2021 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs [3] and International Energy Agency [4] is for 2019. Population data originate from World Population Prospects 2022 [5], published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Global and regional nuclear power projections are presented as low and high cases, encompassing the uncertainties inherent in projecting trends. The projections are based on a critical review of (i) the global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations, (ii) national projections supplied by individual countries for a recent joint OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and IAEA study [6] and (iii) estimates of the expert group participating in an annual IAEA consultancy meeting. The nuclear electrical generating capacity estimates presented in Table 5 on page 24 of the publication are derived using a country by country ‘bottom-up’ approach. In deriving these estimates, the group of experts considered all operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next several decades. The experts build the estimates project by project by assessing the plausibility of each considering a high and low case. The assumptions of the low case are that current market, technology and resource trends continue and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power. This case was designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case does not 2 assume that targets for nuclear power in a particular country will necessarily be achieved. The high case projections are much more ambitious but are still plausible and technically feasible. Country policies on climate change are also considered in the high case. In both cases the same outlook of economic and electricity demand growth based on current expectations is assumed. The high case projection is not intended to reflect a net zero carbon emissions ambition. It does not assume a specific pathway for energy system transitions in the different countries but integrates the expressed intentions of the countries for expanding the use of nuclear power. The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions about the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the way they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity development by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible. By 2050 global final energy consumption is projected to increase by about 30% and electricity production is expected to double [1,2]. Worldwide, coal remains the dominant energy source for electricity production at about 36% for 2021. While its share in electricity production has changed little since 1980, that of nuclear, renewables and natural gas has increased over the past 40 years. Today, nuclear contributes about 10% of global electricity production. The adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact following the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in November 2021 has led to renewed momentum toward reaching net zero global CO 2 emissions by 2050. In the lead-up to COP26, a number of countries revised their nationally determined contributions, committed to reaching net zero CO 2 emissions in the coming decades and recognized the role that nuclear energy can play in reaching this climate goal. One of the key outcomes of COP26 is the pledge by a number of countries and international finance institutions to stop financing new coal power plants and to phase out existing coal power plants. Energy security and resilience are currently major policy concerns. Recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and military conflict in Europe have impacted the reliability of energy systems, impeded energy flows across regions and led to significant increases in energy prices. There is growing recognition 3 of the role of nuclear energy as a key contributor to the security of energy supply to avert future energy supply and price shocks. In light of this evolving energy landscape, with strong commitment to climate action and renewed scrutiny of energy supply security, a number of Member States have revised their national energy policy, leading to decisions for the long term operation of existing reactors, new construction of Generation III/III+ designs, and the development and deployment of small modular reactors. These factors are contributing to government announcements of a larger role for nuclear energy in their energy and climate strategies, leading to a notable upward revision of the high case by about 10% compared with the 2021 edition of this publication. Relative to a global nuclear electrical generating capacity of 390 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) in 2021, the low case projections indicate that world nuclear capacity will remain essentially the same at 404 GW(e). In the high case, world nuclear capacity is expected to more than double to 873 GW(e) 1 by 2050. There are a number of necessary conditions for a substantial increase in installed nuclear capacity. A number of these issues are being addressed, including international efforts toward regulatory and industrial harmonization, as well as progress with final disposal of high level radioactive waste. However, a number of challenges remain, including financing, economic and supply chain difficulties for new nuclear construction in some regions. Climate change mitigation is a key driver of decisions to continue or expand the use of nuclear power. According to the IAEA [7], the use of nuclear power has avoided about 70 gigatonnes of CO 2 emissions over the past 50 years. Commitments made under the Paris Agreement and other initiatives could support nuclear power development, provided the necessary energy policies and market designs are established to facilitate investments in dispatchable low carbon technologies. As stated by the International Energy Agency [8], almost half of the CO 2 emission reductions needed to reach net zero in 2050 will need to come from technologies that are currently under development but are not yet on the market. This is true for nuclear technologies such as small and medium sized, modular and 1 Owing to the uncertain situation in some specific countries in Eastern Europe, the expert group decided not to revise projections for those countries. 4 other advanced reactors. Accelerating the pace of innovation and demonstration of these technologies is required if nuclear is to play a role in decarbonization beyond electricity by providing low carbon heat or hydrogen to the industrial and transport sectors. 2 Currently, about two thirds of nuclear power reactors have been in operation for over 30 years, highlighting the need for significant new nuclear capacity to offset retirements in the long term. Uncertainty remains regarding the replacement of the large number of reactors scheduled to be retired by about 2030 and beyond, particularly in Northern America. However, ageing management programmes and long term operation are being implemented for an increasing number of reactors. Additionally, new policy measures are being implemented to support the competitiveness of existing reactors in liberalized electricity markets. It is important to consider the changes in nuclear electrical generating capacity in each region within the context of region specific factors. In recent years, construction cost overruns and delays for first of a kind projects have led to high project risk perception in the Americas and Europe, hampering investment decisions for new projects. In some regions nuclear power plants have been built on time and on budget. The expert group assumed that the aforementioned challenges may continue to affect some nuclear development plans. The current pace of nuclear power development shows that urgent actions are needed to maintain the existing role of nuclear power in the energy mix. The involvement of a broad range of actors including policy makers, the nuclear industry and international organizations, along with active engagement with the public, is necessary. The underlying fundamentals of population and electricity consumption growth, as well as concerns about climate change and air quality concerns, the security of energy supply and the price volatility of other fuels, point to nuclear energy continuously playing an essential role in the energy mix in the longer run, provided concerted actions are taken. 2 The projections do not explicitly take into account all the potential technologies (small and advanced reactors) and potential uses of nuclear power (e.g. heat, hydrogen, water desalination) under climate change constraints. 5 Geographical Regions The nuclear electrical generating capacity projections presented in RDS-1 are grouped according to the geographical regions used by the Statistics Division of the United Nations Secretariat (see annex I to Ref. [9]). The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the IAEA concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Notes The estimates for nuclear electricity production in 2021 are from the 2022 edition of Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2 (RDS-2) [10]. The estimates for energy and electricity are made by the IAEA Secretariat on the basis of different international and national data sources available as of July 2022. In accordance with the International Recommendations for Energy Statistics [11], the estimates for the breakdown of historical electricity production by energy source are expressed in gross figures. Gross electricity production is the total electrical energy produced by all generating units and installations measured at the output terminals of the generators.