ISO前瞻趋势报告2022（英）-ISO.pdf

ISO Standardization Foresight Framework Trend Report 2022 ݀ Foreword The future has begun. ݀ Society Age groups | Consumption | Movement of peopnulle | nullrosperity | Tech risnulls | The changing nature of wornull ݀ Technonullogy Computing | Connectivity | Cybernullphysicanull systems | Smart manufacturing ݀ nullnvironment nullnergy | nullnvironmentanull degradation ݀ nullconomy Trade ݀ nullonullitics nullower transition ݀ Science nulliotechnonullogy ݀ nullhere to from herenull Foreword Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenullForeword Society The future has begun. The wornulld around us is changing and the pace of change is faster than ever before. The future has begun and those who donnullt want to get nulleft behind must ensure their abinullity to nulloonull ahead. That is why nullSnull has devenulloped a Standardinullation Foresight Framewornullnull to henullp us nulloonull more systematicanullnully at the nullongnullterm and to encourage discussion and enullchange within the nullSnull system about future opportunities for nullnternationanull Standardinullation. This trend report is the output of the first phase of the Standardization Foresight Framework: environmental scanning. nullt is designed to support the nullSnull community to navigate gnullobanull trends as we wornull towards achieving the goanulls and priorities of the nullSnull Strategy 20null0. nulln this reportnull we enullpand upon the drivers of change identified in the Strategynullbreanulling them down into smanullnuller trends and ananullynulling their nullinnulls to enullisting nullSnull wornull. nullur unulltimate aim is to better understand the contenullt in which we operatenull so that nullSnull can effectivenully meet emergingnullmarnullet needs and henullp to shape a more sustainabnulle future. nullnullStandardinulltion Foresight Framewornull| Trend Report 2022 In this report, we expand upon the drivers of change identified in the Strategy, breaking them down into smaller trends and analyzing their links to existing ISO work. Foreword Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenullForeword Society Many of the future trends in this report winullnull be faminulliar. Readers winullnull recogninullenullfor enullampnullenull the cnullimate emergencynull accenullerating and converging technonullogiesnull shifting geoponulliticanull and economic powernull changing demographics and evonullving consumer preferences. Anullthough the content may not come as a surprisenull we hope that punullnulling together this information winullnull provide readers with a newnullmacro perspective on the wornulld around us and standardinullationnulls pnullace in it. This broad perspective shounulld henullp to inform strategy and decisionnullmanulling. The selected trends and STEEPS classification This trend report does not cnullaim to be anullnullnullencompassing null the trends presented here are highnullnullevenull and have been senullected because of their renullevance to standardinullation or to the internationanull nullandscape within which nullSnull operates. They are nullongnullterm driving forces that are anullready having a visibnulle impact at the gnullobanull nullevenull. Specific eventsnullsuch as the Cnullnullnullnullnullnullnull pandemic or the confnullict in nullnullrainenull are generanullnully not mentioned at this nullevenullnullanullthough an understanding of the trends presented here can henullp us to better grasp the contenullt of these events and thinnull more broadnully about their potentianull nullongnull term consenulluences. Tanulling inspiration from the STnullnullnullS ananullysisnullwhich is a toonull used in strategy to evanulluate the enullternanull factors impacting an organinullation nullanullso nullnown as nullnullST or nullnullSTnullnull ananullysisnullnull we have chosen to cnullassify our senullected trends using the STnullnullnullS categories ofnull SOCIETYnull TECHNOLOGYnull ENVIRONMENTnull ECONOMYnull POLITICS and SCIENCE. Convergence Above anullnullwhat emerges cnullarnull from the trend descriptions in this report is the high degree of convergence and internullnnullges between trends. Societanull trends are inenullricabnull nullnnulled to technonullgicanulladvancesnull which are themsenulles affected by economic and ponullticanull trendsnulland so on. Many future chanullenges winull arise at the intersections of these trendsnullas domains that were once distinct from one another nullsuch as bionullgy and information technonullgy nullbecome increasingnull intertwined. nullat counull this mean for standardinulltionnull Foreword Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenullForeword Society How to explore this trend report nullithin the highnullnullevenull STnullnullnullS categoriesnulltrends have been grouped into nullnull subnullcategories. The trends can be browsed in any ordernullaccording to interest. nullvery trend incnulludes an overanullnull descriptionnulla nullist of nullSnull committees and nulley standards renullated to the trend nullif anynullnull and nullinnulls to other nullSnull resources such as news stories or pubnullications. For a more interactive enullperience and easier access to nullinnulls to committees and resourcesnull we invite you to consunullt the nulleb version of the reportnull httpsnullnullwww.iso.orgnullforesight.htmnull . nulln the nullebsitenull the trend report can be enullpnullored by cnullicnulling on the sunburst chart and an additionanull interactive chart anullnullows you to visuanullinulle nullinnullages between the trends. We invite you to consult the web version of the report: iso.orgnullforesight.htmnull Foreword Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenullForeword Society Research and methodology The contents of this report are the resunullt of an environmentanull scanning process impnullemented by the nullSnull Centranull Secretariat nullnullSnullnullCSnull Research and nullnnovation nullnit nullRnullnullnull. null nulln order to identify the nullist of trends renullevant for standardinullationnullthe Rnullnull team senullected and reviewed pubnullicnully avainullabnulle trend reports from a wide variety of organinullations nullincnulluding governmentsnull internationanull organinullationsnull thinnull tannullsnull nullonnullnullovernmentanull nullrganinullations nullnullnullnullsnullnull research institutes and consunullting firmsnull. 2 To be senullected for reviewnull the trend reports had to meet a series of criterianull nulless than five years onulldnullpubnullished by a reputabnulle source nullno ideonullogicanull bias and no profit motivenullnullincnullude references and a cnullear methodonullogy for identifying and investigating trendsnulland be regionanull or gnullobanull in focus. The trends chosen for incnullusion in this report were those that featured most frenulluentnully across these pubnullications andnullor those that had a strong nullinnull to standardinullationnullas reveanulled by mapping the trends to nullSnullnulls current and pnullanned technicanull activities. null. The methodonullogy was devenulloped as part of the enullaboration of the nullSnull Standardinullation Foresight Framewornullnullin conullnullaboration with foresight enullperts from Future nullmpactsnull httpsnullnullfuturenullimpacts.de 2. These sources are referenced in the trend report. Foreword Society null Age groups null Consumption null Movement of peopnulle null nullrosperity null Tech risnull null The changing nature of wornull Society Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenull Society Foreword ‹ › Age groups Ageing popunullation | nulloung generation infnulluences These trends are about demographic changes at both ends of the spectrum. nullveranullnullnull the wornulldnulls popunullation is growing onulldernullbut there are neverthenulless some regions where growing young popunullations winullnull have significant impacts. nullhinulle ageing popunullations winullnull have impnullications for the sustainabinullity of pubnullic financing modenulls and heanullthcarenullgrowing young popunullations winullnull have impnullications for ponulliticanull behaviours and education systems. nulloth trends winullnull profoundnully affect wornullforce and empnulloyment modenulls. Ageing population nullopunullations are ageing in most countries in the wornulld. null nullopunullation ageing describes an increase in the sinulle of a countrynulls popunullation over a certain age. nulleneranullnullynull the cutnulloff for ananullynulling growth in the nullonulld agenull group is nullnull years. That isnull peopnulle considered to be of nullonulld agenull are aged nullnull and over. For years nownull increases in the proportion of popunullations aged nullnull and over have occurred in most countries. nullopunullation ageing occurs as a resunullt of munullipnull factorsnull • Increase in average life expectancynullAverage nullfe enullectancy is generanully canullunullted as nullife enullectancy at birthnull. nullfe enullectancy can be increased by decreasing chinull mortanulltynullimprovements in overanull popunulltion heanullhnullthe enullmination of diseases that contribute to premature deathsnulland increased access to heanullhcare and other factors. null many countriesnullnullfe enullectancy has increased with economic devenullpment. null null. Future nulltnullonull null0 nullobanullTrends for 20null nullnullAnull Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Futurenull 20nullnullnull null Asia nullacific Megatrends 20null0 nullCommonweanullth Scientific and nullndustrianull Research nullrganisationnull20nullnullnull Related trends: nulliversifying inenulluanullities, nullene editing, nullncreasing migration, Reinventing the wornullpnullace, nullrbaninullation Society Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenull Society Foreword ‹ › null devenullped regionsnullnullfe enullectancies are increasing by about two months per year. This adds about five years to the average personnulls nullfespan per generation nullnull other factors being enullanull. null null 20nullnullaverage nullfe enullectancy winull be above null in null countries null nullin 20nullnullthe gnullbanullaverage nullfe enullectancy winull be nullnull. null • Low fertility ratesnullnull peopnull do not have enough chinullren to nullepnullcenullthe popunulltionnullonuller age groups can start to outnumber younger age groups. • Reduced migrationnull Migration generanullnully brings youngnull wornullingnull age peopnulle into a popunullation. nullf migration is reducednullthe proportion of the popunullation in those age groups may grow nulless. Anullthough every country winullnull enullperience an increase in its average age over the nenullt few decadesnullthe banullance of forces driving this trend winullnull differ from country to country. null Future nulltnullonull null0 nullobanullTrends for 20null nullnullAnull Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Futurenull 20nullnullnull null. Future possibinullities report 2020 nullnullAnull nullovernmentnull 2020null null nullnullobanull Trends and the future of nullatin America. nullhy and how nullatin America shounulld thinnull about the future nullnullnternullAmerican nullevenullopment nullannullnull nullnternullAmerican nullianulloguenull 20nullnullnull null Ageing and heanullth nullnullornulld nulleanullth nullrganinullationnull202nullnull null Future nulltnullonull null0 nullobanullTrends for 20null nullnullAnull Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Futurenull 20nullnullnull null0. nullatin America and the Caribbean 20null0. Future scenarios nullnullnternullAmerican nullevenullopment nullannullnull 20nullnullnull nullnull nullnullobanull trends. nullaradonull of progress nullnullS nullationanull nullntenullnulligence Councinullnull 20nullnullnull nullhinulle popunullation ageing started in highnullincome countries nullfor enullampnulle in nullpan null0null of the popunullation is anullready over null0 years onulldnullnull it is now nullownull and middnullenullincome countries that are enullperiencing the greatest change. nully 20null0nulltwonullthirds of the wornulldnulls popunullation over null0 years winullnull nullive in nullownull and middnullenullincome countries. null nulln devenulloping countriesnullpopunullations can nullage before they grow richnull nullnull0 null eading to chanullnullenging strains on pubnullic resources. The number of peopnulle reaching wornulling age during the coming decades winullnull be significantnully nullower than in the preceding decades. nullnull The sinulle of the wornulling age popunullation renullative to the popunullation of retirees is canullnulled the nulldependency rationull. nullt is nullinullenully that by 20null0null the dependency ratio winullnull be benullow 2null in nullnull countries around the wornulld. Conversenullynull the dependency ratio is enullpected to improve in many African countries and parts of Asia. Society Technonullgy nullvironment nullonomy nullonulltics Science nullere to from herenull Society Foreword ‹ › Migration can be an important contributor to increasing the dependency ratio in an otherwise ageing popunullation. null2 nulln many countriesnull migration is anullready an important factor in maintaining a wornulling popunullation that can meet the needs of the ageing popunullation. nullnull nullmmigration ponulliciesnull particunullarnully in devenulloped countriesnull winullnull need to banullance a growing demand for wornullers with internanull ponulliticanull tensions in the future. nullnull nullhinulle some onullder peopnulle winullnull renulluire care and supportnull onullder popunullations in generanull are very diverse and manulle munulltipnulle contributions to faminulliesnull communitiesnull and society more broadnully. nullet the enulltent of these opportunities and contributions depends heavinully on one factornull heanullth. Supportive physicanull and socianull environments enabnulle peopnulle to do what is important to themnulldespite nullosses in capacity. null2. nullnullobanull trends. nullaradonull of progress nullnullS nullationanull nullntenullnulligence Councinullnull 20nullnullnull nullnull nullnullobanull Trends to 20null0. Chanullnullenges and choices for nullurope nullnulluropean Strategy and nullnullicy Ananullysis Systemnull 20nullnullnull nullnull nullnullobanull risnulls 20nullnull update. nullecnulline or new renaissancenull nullAtnullantic Councinullnull 20nullnullnull nullnull Asia nullacific Megatrends 20null0 nullCommonweanullth Scientific and nullndustrianull Research nullrganisationnull20nullnullnull nullnull. nullnullobanull Strategic Trends. The future starts today nullnullnull Ministry of nullefencenull 20nullnullnull nullnull Future possibinulliti