可持续农食系统——实现中国粮食和气候安全目标（英）-WRI.pdf

China Council for International Cooperation on Environment andDevelopment (CCICED) Special Policy StudySUSTAINABLE AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS:MEETING CHINA’S FOOD AND CLIMATE SECURITY GOALS May, 2 0 2 2 i SPECIAL POLICY STUDY MEMBERSCo-Chairs*:Craig Hanson International Co-Leader; Vice President of Food, Forests, Water Special Advisor, CCICEDFAN Shenggen Chinese Leader; Chair Professor and Dean, Academy of Global Food Economics andPolicy, China Agricultural UniversityCHEN Ming Deputy Chinese Leader; Deputy Chief Economist, Foreign Environmental CooperationCenter, Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentDrafting Experts*:MENG Ting Associate professor, China Agricultural University FU Xiaotian Director, China Food and Natural Resources Program, World Resources Institute ChinaLIU Ting Deputy Head, Green Value Chain Institute of the Foreign Environmental CooperationCenter, Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentDONG Xin Senior Project Lead, Green Value Chain Institute of the Foreign EnvironmentalCooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentYUAN Yu Senior Project Lead, Green Value Chain Institute of the Foreign EnvironmentalCooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentCHAI Yilin Project Lead, Green Value Chain Institute of the Foreign Environmental CooperationCenter, Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentSenior Advisors:Bob TANSEY Senior Policy Advisor, China food supplywill be even more vulnerable to changes in climate and environmental degradation; rural populationshave been marginalized as secondary and tertiary activities are the main sources of family income; andmalnutrition and other food-related health issues are already epidemic as many in China adopt westernfood habits. To achieve national strategic goals and address these challenges, China must transform itsagrifood system.To advance the evaluation of actionable options for this transformation, this SPS includes a review offood production technology, on-farm practice, and public policy solutions, some tested and some indevelopment. Such solutions fall into four categories: producing more (and more nutritious) food, protecting nature, reducing agrifood system inefficiencies and pollution, and restoring degraded lands.While individual solutions by themselves may produce some positive outcomes and be implementedintra-sectorally, the interdependencies and sheer scale of the task call for a multi-sectoral concertedeffort supported by the relevant institutions through arrangements and processes that rely more onsystems thinking than on narrow sectoral mandates. Six policy, governance and institutional innovationsare recommended to facilitate such concerted effort.1 . Develop a National Agrifood System Transformation StrategyTo draw clear national objectives and paths to realistic, necessary and sufficient outcomes, a “ChinaNational Agrifood System Transformation Strategy” could define a 2 0 6 0 vision and a 2 0 3 0 Action Plan,which will be: Science-based – incorporating the latest technical advances supporting a food and land usesystem transformation and the approaches or tools for assessing and managing trade-offs between solutions and objectives. Accountable – internally coherent to deliver explicitly stated and measurable goals whilesupporting and relying on the relevant components of China’s Carbon Neutrality Plan, 5 -yearplans, and the National Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on climatechange. Multisectoral – governed by an inter-ministerial committee to ensure various ministries andrelevant institutions contribute what is in their purview, address and manage trade-offsinherent to the solutions, and streamline decision-making.2 . Repurpose Agricultural Fiscal Incentives and FinanceTo advance the solutions, China could launch a concerted effort to redirect significant financing insupport of its national food and climate security goals. Much of this repurposed agriculture supportshould be geared toward research and development (R and (b)taxing activities that increase the climate footprint of China’s agrifood system. Potential uses of these resources may include: (a) financing solutions delineated in this study asframed by the National Agrifood System Transformation Strategy; (b) funding of place-basedecological compensation programs, applying lessons learned from the inter-provincial ecologicalcompensation mechanism used for the Xin’an River; and (c) and providing technical assistanceto farmers for adoption of improved land-use management. Additional financing may be attracted from the private sector by the government providingpolicy and financial support (e.g., “first-loss” risk reduction) to encourage private sectorcompanies and banks to invest in research, development, and/or deployment of solutionsoutlined in this study. 3 . Promote Healthy Diets and ConsumptionChina’s major food production and consumption transformation over the past three decades have beenlargely driven by changes in dietary preferences and affordable choices available. The overall trend infood consumption is a reduction in the consumption of basic grain staples and an increase in theconsumption of animal-based food (mainly meat and dairy). The major consequences of these changesinclude an initial improvement on caloric and protein intake followed by an increase in cardiovasculardisease and prevalence of obesity once a certain level of fat, salt and sugar has been surpassed. Adietary-guidance initiative could center on the development of a national program for encouraging ahealthy and sustainable diet (in accordance with China’s recommended dietary guidelines), based on,but not limited to: Developing a national nutrition guideline for the Chinese people that meet requirements of notonly health but also sustainability Strengthening awareness messaging, package labeling, and food marketing laws, etc.  Linking a healthier diet with a sustainable production scheme aimed at increasing theproduction of fresh fruits and vegetables by Chinese smallholders (an oft overlooked sector) andincreasing access to fresh fruits and vegetables by Chinese consumers Expanding the national Clean Plate Initiative to tackle food waste (and associated plastic waste)at retail (including the shopping environment), food service (including e-commerce), andhousehold levels Promoting alternatives to animal protein, particularly from beef, including synthetic meat, plant-based processed protein rich meals, etc. (See Recommendation # 5 )4 . Accelerate the Agrifood Systems Transformation through Private Sector LeadershipIn close coordination with public institutions, including the proposed National Agrifood SystemTransformation Strategy and the inter-ministerial agrifood system committee, the private sector couldspecifically help accelerate investment and innovation across the supply chain through: 3  Supporting efficient but fair consolidation of farmland. Farm size is critical when deploying theadoption of new technologies at scale, with larger areas being preferred given the investmentsneeded. Private companies could help create investment arrangements whereby smalllandholders can participate in collective efforts to achieve scale without risk of losing their land. Supporting food safety programs. While food safety is ultimately a responsibility of governmentat different jurisdictional levels, the private sector can make this task more manageable andefficient by introducing the traceability protocols and technology needed to manage integratedsupply chains. Providing and enabling dietary guidance. While remaining commercially viable, large foodretailers can play a significant role in educating and guiding consumers on practical ways toadhere to government-backed dietary guidelines.5 . Incentivize Alternative Sources of Protein and Food TechnologyMost analyses on the impact of diet and health and the environment conclude that reducing the amount of meat consumption is the single-most efficient way to curb the rapid growth rate of cardiovasculardisease and methane emissions. Reduction on overall meat consumption should be part of a multi-faceted initiative to sensitize residents to the risks and impacts of meat consumption while activelyseeking for and developing alternative sources of protein, including plant-based and synthetic meat.Such efforts are today being developed largely by private entrepreneurs facing a significant learningcurve.As stated above, the private sector efforts in this regard can be accelerated with the right policies andincentives in place. As a key stakeholder, the government should create the enabling conditions andincentives for Chinese companies to become major global manufacturers of alternative proteins (e.g.,plant-based meats like Impossible Foods, lab-grown meats) and alternative starches. Doing so thegovernment will be helping: Meet growing domestic and foreign demand for protein Address climate change and land competition Create an entire new industrial sector for China that China could lead the world on. 6 . Green International Food Value ChainsChina could pursue a program to ensure that the food it imports is low carbon, thereby helping reducefood supply GHG emission. The 2 0 2 1 report of the CCICED Special Policy Study, “Greening China’s SoftCommodity Value Chains”, identified several measures for this program. The recommendations from the2 0 2 0 Study were approved and endorsed by the China Council in 2 0 2 0 . These recommendations are acritical component for sustainable food supply chains overall and would help meet China’s food andclimate security goals. As such, the 2 0 2 0 recommendations are worth reinforcing in this current SpecialPolicy Study: Establish a national green value chain strategy and provide policy/institutional support Adopt mandatory and voluntary measures to “green” food value chains Leverage existing Chinese policy levers and initiatives including the Belt and Road Initiative. 4 1 THE VISIONChina has several aspirations that will require dramatic transformations in the country’s agriculture andfood (“agrifood”) systems (Box 1 ). Two aspirations in particular stand out and are the focus of thisSpecial Policy Study: (1 ) Peaking national carbon emissions before 2 0 3 0 and achieving carbon neutralitybefore 2 0 6 0 , and (2 ) achieving food security and resilience. 1 .1 ACHIEVE CARBON PEAK BEFORE 2 0 3 0 AND NEUTRALITY BEFORE 2 0 6 0In 2 0 2 0 , the Chinese government announced an aspiration to peak national carbon emissions (Box 2 )before 2 0 3 0 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2 0 6 0 (United Nations, 2 0 2 0 ). To jump start this effort,the 1 4 th Five Year Plan for National Agriculture Green Development calls for reducing greenhouse gas(GHG) emission and increasing carbon sink capacity within the agriculture and land sector (Ministry ofAgriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), 2 0 2 1 ). Both policy ambitions align with China’s vision of becomingan “Ecological Civilization” (The State Council, 2 0 2 1 ; MARA, 2 0 2 1 ). As for achieving carbon neutrality, China’s agrifood system must feature prominently in the overallnational plan to address climate change. As President Xi Jinping said, “Decreasing GHG emissions andincreasing the carbon sink of the agriculture sector and the rural area are critical measures for achievingcarbon peaking before 2 0 3 0 and carbon neutrality before 2 0 6 0 . Scientific accounting, actionableproposals and efficient measures should be taken”. China’s domestic agrifood system generates 8 % ofthe country’s annual total GHG emissions, including 4 0 % of the country’s total methane emissions and5 0 % of its total nitrous oxide emissions (Ministry of Ecology and Environment 2 0 1 8 ). These emissionsBox 2 “Carbon” = “Greenhouse gases”As used by the Chinese government, the term “carbon” in the context of the 2 0 6 0 neutralityambition means carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e), which encompasses all greenhouse gases (GHGs).Therefore, this Special Policy Study will address all GHGs generated by the agrifood system,primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. This study will consider direct GHG emissions(and sinks) in China. In addition, this study will consider GHG implications associated with agriculturegoods imported into China from overseas, although those emissions are beyond China’s directcontrol. Food import is an integral part of China’s food security, while China is committed to globalemission reduction. China can play a positive role in reducing emissions of these overseasagriculture systems. Box 1 Agrifood systemAs used in this Special Policy Study, the “agrifood system” encompasses both the “on-farm”agricultural and food production activities, as well as the inputs upon which this production depends(e.g., production of synthetic fertilizer), processing and packaging, distribution, retail, andconsumption. Land-use and land-use change associated with the agricultural and food productionactivities is also included in the agri-food system. 5 will need to be significantly reduced. Moreover, carbon neutrality can only be achieved if China’sremaining unabated emissions (from energy, industry, and/or agriculture sectors) are counterbalancedby a dramatic increase in the country’s carbon sink (e.g., sequestering carbon dioxide via reforestation).1 .2 ACHIEVE FOOD SECURITYIn April of 2 0 2 0 , President Xi Jinping declared that “food security is an important foundation for nationalsecurity” (Xinhuanet, 2 0 2 0 ). Later in December of 2 0 2 0 , he stated, “The food of the Chinese peoplemust be made by and remain in the hands of the Chinese. Everyone needs to take responsibility for foodsecurity” (People’s Daily, 2 0 2 1 ). In the same vein, China’s new “dual circulation strategy” calls forgreater self-reliance in terms of production and consumption (including of food) in order to reduceinternational supply chain uncertainties (CCICED, 2 0 2 1 ). More recently, in March 2 0 2 2 , President Xiarticulated the importance of adequate grain and other food supplies, better farmland management,and application of new technologies in support of food security (Xinhua, 2 0 2 2 ). It is important to notethat these are not calls for full self-sufficiency with regard to food or other commodities but rather one for an appropriate combination of self-sufficiency and open trade. In addition, the agrifood system—especially with respect to improving human health, accessing safe and nutritious food, and reducingagriculture-generated pollution—is an important component of China’s efforts to achieve “commonprosperity”. These and other priorities highlight that ensuring a sustainable supply of primary products,including food, is a major strategic issue for the country.Given the above, a key question the country faces is, “How can China transform its agrifood system in amanner that simultaneously supports food security and contributes to carbon neutrality?” This CCICEDSpecial Policy Study attempts to provide an answer