美国《通货膨胀削减法》：气候和能源内容特点及潜在影响（英）-BCG.pdf

Executive Perspectives US Inflation Reduction Act: Climate Source: EPA, CBO, BCG analysis 7Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 1 Carbon-free energy | Base, multipliers, and bonus tax credit structure intended to shape and target clean energy investments 6% 60% 24% 10% 10% 10% 6% base Total Energy community bonus 5x bonus of 6% base (total 30%) Domestic content bonus Low-income bonus Renewable investment tax credit eligible for bonuses up to 60% of upfront investment cost With a potential to increase base incentive by 10x while also supporting a just transition Prevailing wages and apprenticeship qualify projects for a 5x bonus multiplier over base for most non- manufacturing credits Significant apprenticeship opportunities to help upskill the US workforce in low-carbon technologies Investment in the energy community and low-income community qualifies renewable energy projects for up to a 10 ppt bonus credit increase each Support for the energy and low-income communities to enable economic development and jobs 3 1 4 1 3 2 Domestic content bonus provides up to a 10 ppt bonus on renewable energy production or investment tax credit Domestic content bonus to incentivize shift to US manufacturing, requiring produced in the US by 2027 and 100% of steel and iron for turbines and solar panels 2 4 Note: Not all clean energy technologies are eligible for all bonuses; ppt (percentage point); production tax credit eligible for similar bonuses, but domestic content, energy community, and low-income community bonuses are 10% increases (not 10 ppt) Source: FACT SHEET: Historic Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal , The White House 8Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Carbon-free energy | Full tax credits can significantly reduce costs of generating renewable energy 1 1. New small-modular reactor; 2.Assumes $15/MWh incentive, inflation adjusted and with bonuses; Note: all technologies assume base + prevailing wage bonus + domestic production bonus + energy community bonus, and wind and solar also include low-income bonus Source: Lazard, BCG analysis $40 $35 $77 $136 $100 $20 $13 $44 $112 $79 Nuclear 1 Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh Solar Storage Offshore wind Onshore wind -49% -63% -42% -18% -21% Cost without tax credit Cost with tax credit Post-IRA incentive applied 60% Investment Tax Credit $35/MWh [2] Production Tax Credit 60% Investment Tax Credit 50% Investment Tax Credit $31/MWh [2] Production Tax Credit 9Carbon-free energy | Potential for step change increase in renewable energy buildout by 2030 and beyond 1 Installed Capacity (GW) 68 125 2 307 221 28 81 408 252 35 99 0 4-6x ~2x 500x 40-50x 2030 capacity, base case (conservative adoption rates) 2020 capacity 2030 capacity, deep green (wider adoption rates) Improved economics of renewables and storage will accelerate transition from fossil fuel generation • Expect upwards of 65-80% generation from renewable capacity in 2030 vs. ~40% in 2020 • Projects that start construction in or before 2032 eligible for tax credits; expect continued growth past 2030 • Need for firm (low-carbon) generation to ensure grid reliability and resiliency remains Utility-scale Solar Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Non-residential Storage 10Transportation | Electric vehicle purchase price parity accelerates 5 years 1 20 2020 2015 2025 2030 -10 2035 0 10 Purchase price difference between internal combustion engine and battery electric vehicles Segment: Compact SUV (SUV M) US Dollars ( 000) No-incentive 1. Purchase price parity and total cost of ownership parity differ by vehicle segment (e.g., SUV vs sedan) and state where vehicle is purchased (some states have additional purchase incentives) Source: BCG powertrain model Passenger vehicles: • Incentive: Up to $7500 for new purchases, up to $4000 for used • Purchase price parity jumps forward 5 years 1 for qualifying passenger vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) • 5-year total cost of ownership favors battery electric vehicles immediately 1 Commercial vehicles: • Incentive: $40,000 for new purchases • Includes off-highway vehicles Purchase price parity With full incentive 11Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Transportation | Close to half of vehicle sales likely to be electric by 2030 90% 38% 15% 47% 3% 2021 6% 2030 base with incentives Non-electric 3 vehicles Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles Battery electric and fuel cell vehicles 98% 80% 12% 1% 1% 8% 1. Forecast includes all light vehicles, except heavy vans; 2. Assumes decrease in scrappage rate over time (EVs + AVs); Including such changes in consumer mobility behavior as car and ride sharing; 3. Includes internal combustion (diesel + gasoline) and mild hybrid electric vehicles Source: BCG Powertrain Model base case incl. incentives ; BCG vehicles in operation (VIO) model 10% of light-, medium, and heavy- vehicles in operation expected to be electric by 2030 in US % of US New Light Vehicle Sales 1 % of US Light Vehicles in Operation ( parc ) 2 96% 70% 25% 2021 2% 2% 5% 2030 base with incentives % of US New Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sales 1 98% 84% 4% 12% 2% 1% Stack-able incentives in the form of: • Point of sale rebate • 30% rebate on EV charging / alternative fuel hardware + installation • Higher residual values due to used vehicle credit • -level incentives such as LCFS (California) Several non-financial factors in the Inflation Reduction Act are also likely to drive adoption: • Eliminates volume cap for individual vehicle manufacturers • Provides 10-year incentive certainty • Simplifies incentive payout % of US Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Operation ( parc ) 2 1 12Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Note: All dates refer to when construction must start by or safe harbor achieved by 1. For minerals: Up to 80% by 2027; for components: up to 100% by 2029, but no 10 ppts/y increase in 2025 (vs 2024) Source: H.R.5376 - Inflation Reduction Act from congress.gov Today s EV batteries rely heavily on raw materials from China Sourcing requirements: Inflation Reduction Act mandates two sourcing requirements to receive the clean vehicle credit, starting in 2023: • 40% of battery minerals sourced from US or country with free trade agreement • 50% of battery components manufactured in US, Mexico, or Canada These percentages increase 10 ppts/y 1 Excluded entities : Disqualifies vehicles that are imported or built with battery materials sourced from foreign countries of concern (namely, China + Russia) 9% 4% 68% 60% 72% 16% 42% 65% 65% 43% 79% 10% 6% 6% Lithium 1% 1% 1% Cobalt Separator Graphite 2% Nickel 3% Lithium Cobalt Class 1 Nickel Anode Cathode 2% Electrolyte Cell Share of global production, 2021 (%) Raw materials Processing Cell $3.5B for DAC hubs Expansion of existing 45Q credit to $85/ton for permanent geological sequestration of CO2, or $60/ton for utilization of CO2 (incl. enhanced oil recovery) Hydrogen can receive significant incentives, with exact value depending on the associated emissions; additional $8B to build regional H2 hubs 35 60 25 85 New Value Previous value 50 15 Sequestration Utilization 35 130 50 Previous value New Value 15 50 180 Sequestration Utilization $/ton CO2 $/ton CO2 1. Assumes facility receives 5x bonus from meeting prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements; Note: $/tCO2 ($/ton of carbon dioxide) 0.60 0.75 1.00 3.00 2.5-4 0.45 1.5-2.5 0.45-1.5 Emissions (kg CO2 emitted / kg H2 produced) Production tax credit ($ / kg H2 produced) 1 Clean tech | Significant incentives to help scale clean hydrogen, CCUS, and DAC 1 14United States Levelized Cost of Hydrogen ($/kg hydrogen, production cost) 1,2 1. Excludes infrastructure costs associated with storage and delivery to end consumer 2. Lighter shade reflects pricing uncertainty regarding natural gas (lower limit $2/MMBTU, upper limit $5/MMBTU) and electricity 3. Starts at $0.4/kg H2 for 60-75% greenhouse gas reduction vs fossil-derived hydrogen, goes up to $0.75/kg H2 for 75-85% greenhouse gas reduction. Source: BCG North America H2 Supply Model Production tax credit Green Hydrogen Blue Hydrogen 2 Fossil-derived 2 2030 2022 3.0 0.8 0.8-1.3 3.0 0.8 0.8-1.3 Lighter shades reflects range of cost uncertainty 2 -0.4 - -0.6 0.9-1.2 0.2-0.8 0.2-0.8 3.0 0.8 0.8-1.3 2025 0-0.3 0.2-0.8 Blue hydrogen cost competitive now Green hydrogen cost competitive soon 1 Clean tech | Incentives improve cost competitiveness of clean hydrogen against traditionally produced hydrogen Two forms of clean hydrogen (H2): Green: Renewable energy + water electrolysis Blue: Fossil-derived hydrogen + carbon capture 15Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 4 0 0 7 0 1 315 111 30 12 55 44 35 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 122 93 30 17 1 6 4 1 69 23 14 1 25 16 1 Control 291 8 12 1 1 Clean tech | Higher 45Q tax credit will triple the scale of emissions addressable with CCUS 1. High CO 2 sectors include: Ammonia, Chemicals (ferm.), Conv. Oil (incl. NGP), H2, Petrochem.; Low CO 2 sectors include: Aluminum, Cement Power sectors include: Fossil power Generation; Others include: Waste management, Wood, Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing | 2. Abatement costs based on emitters assigned to hubs within BCG CCUS tool, covering selected regions, using hub T Source: EPA flight database 2019; BCG CCUS tool Volume of emissions within sector by cost (million tons per year) 123 $50/ton High-Concentration Emissions $50-$85/ton Industrial Emissions + Highly Utilized Fossil Power Gen $85-$120/ton Power Generation Emissions Totals Gulf Coast Midwest California Ohio River Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Northwest Rockies Power Other 83 million tons per year (6%) 316 million tons per year (23%) 956 million tons per year (71%) 45Q now $85/ton 45Q was $50/ton 16