专利和能源转型：清洁能源技术创新的全球趋势(英)-IEA.pdf

Patents and the energy transition Global trends in clean energy technology innovation April 20212 Foreword The energy transition needed to mitigate climate change presents challenges of unparalleled scale and complexity. Many of the technologies needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions are not yet fully mature, whilst the time window available for bringing them to market is closing rapidly. In this context, reliable intelligence on trends in low-carbon energy (LCE) innovation is crucial for supporting sound business and policy decisions. As the patent office for Europe, the EPO is ideally positioned to first detect and analyse such trends. Because patent applications are typically filed long before products appear on the market, they provide early information on forthcoming technologies. Thanks to our unique access to the world s largest collection of patent and non-patent literature, the EPO is able to exploit that information to produce cutting-edge business intelligence. Our patent classification scheme for climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies is testament to our commitment to fulfil that role. With millions of patent documents classified across a wide variety of climate change mitigation technologies, it has become a widely-used standard for monitoring progress in green technologies across the world. Our partnership with the International Energy Agency (IEA) makes it possible to further exploit these resources. By combining the EPO’s advanced patent knowledge with the IEA’s unparalleled technical and economic expertise in energy, we aim to support decision-making in the public and private sectors with the best possible information on technology trends in this field. Our new joint study embraces the broad landscape of low-carbon energy technologies. It relies for that purpose on the EPO’s dedicated patent classification scheme for such technologies, along with new patent data on fossil fuel technologies that have been developed as a benchmark for this study. The results reveal encouraging trends and interesting energy transition patterns across countries and industry sectors. However, our report also highlights the need to further accelerate innovation for the technologies – some still emerging – that are poised to play an instrumental role in the energy transition of the next 2-3 decades. By giving decision-makers unparalleled data and analyses about innovative solutions in low-carbon energy, I am confident that this report will help to guide them in driving the vital energy transition. António Campinos President, European Patent Office3 Foreword In March of this year top international energy and climate leaders took part in the IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit, a key milestone in accelerating international collaboration toward clean energy transitions. Many of the governments present, who represented more than 80% of global GDP and the majority of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, highlighted the urgent need to increase the pace and scale of adopting low-carbon technologies, and emphasised that significantly greater private and public investment is needed to quickly harness commercially-available technologies, and to identify and develop breakthrough technologies. This report examines the landscape of low-carbon energy technologies and covers the past, present and future of clean energy innovation. Recent developments provide welcome grounds for optimism. After a slump in patenting activity during the last decade, we have now seen three years of growth in low-carbon energy (LCE) patenting in many key emerging and cross-cutting technologies. To provide context to the trends and patterns in low-carbon energy innovation, the report uses new approaches to identify patents related to fossil fuel technologies. The results show fossil fuel patents declining as LCE patents grow. It is clear that to reach our shared objective of net zero emissions, further efforts are urgently required to take this resurgence of clean energy innovation to a new and transformational level. Policy-makers can draw on this report to identify actions that will help bring new technologies to markets and consumers all over the world. The report’s findings are the result of a growing partnership between the IEA and the European Patent Office (EPO) that will help us track progress going forward. It is the second output following our first collaboration which focused on the important area of energy storage. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency4 Contents Forewords 2 List of tables and figures 6 List of abbreviations 8 Executive summary 9 1. Introduction 21 1.1 Aim of the study 23 1.2 Structure of the report 24 2. Technology roadmap to a decarbonised economy 25 2.1 Beyond the headline trend: capturing the diverse dynamics of energy innovation in the data 26 2.2 The rising importance of end-use and enabling technologies for clean energy 29 2.3 End-use and enabling technologies are accelerating new types of innovation 30 3. Main technology trends 34 3.1 Trends in energy supply technologies 35 3.2 Trends in end-use technologies 36 3.3 Trends in enabling technologies 37 4. Profile of applicants in LCE technologies 43 4.1 Universities and public research organisations 44 4.2 Top applicants in LCE technologies 49 5. Geographical distribution of low-carbon energy innovation 54 5.1. Global innovation centres 55 5.1.1 Focus on Europe 605 Annex 64 Annex 1 Cartography of LCE technologies 65 Annex 2 Cartography of fossil fuel technologies 66 Annex 3 Patent metrics 67 Annex 4 Cluster analysis 68 References 696 Back to contents List of tables and figures Tables Table 2.1 Overview of the cartography and how it maps to key technology gaps 27 Table 3.1 Distribution of global IPFs in PV technology between the world main regions, 2010-2019 37 Table 3.2 Share of IPFs in enabling technologies overlapping with other fields, 2010-2019 40 Table 3.3 Distribution of global IPFs in hydrogen between the world main regions, 2010-2019 42 Table 4.1 Top 15 universities and PROs in LCE technologies, 2000-2019 46 Table 4.2 Top global clusters in enabling technologies, 2000-2018 48 Table 4.3 LCE technology profiles of top 15 applicants, 2000-2019 50 Table 5.1 Specialisation (RTA) of global innovation centres by LCE technology fields, 2010-2019 57 Table 5.2 Specialisation (RTA) of top 10 EPC countries by LCE technology fields, 2010-2019 61 Figures Figure E1 Global growth of IPFs in low-carbon energy technologies versus all technologies, 2000-2019 (base 100 in 2000) 10 Figure E2 Global growth of IPFs in clean energy supply, enabling and end-use technologies, 2000-2019 11 Figure E3 Overlaps of patenting activity in LCE enabling technologies with energy supply and end-use technologies in various sectors, 2000-2019 12 Figure E4 Global growth of IPFs in electric vehicles versus other LCE technologies for road transportation, 2000-2019 13 Figure E5 Top 15 applicants in LCE technologies, 2000-2019 14 Figure E6 Emerging technologies in PV cells and mountings, 2015-2019 15 Figure E7 Share of IPFs in fuel cells and low-carbon hydrogen production, 2010-2019 16 Figure E8 Share of IPFs originating from universities and PROs in LCE technology fields, 2000-2019 17 Figure E9 Main revealed technology advantages of global innovation centres 18 Figure E10 Top 10 fields for share of IPFs stemming from international collaboration (with top 5 pairs of collaborating countries highlighted in each field), 2000-2019 19 Figure 1.1 Global energy sector CO 2 emissions reductions by current technology readiness category in the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario 22 Figure 2.1 Global growth of IPFs in low-carbon energy technologies versus all technologies, 2000-2019 26 Figure 2.2 Historical and projected CO 2 emissions from existing energy infrastructure and emissions pathways in IEA climate change mitigation scenarios 28 Figure 2.3 Global growth of IPFs in LCE supply, enabling and end-use technologies, 2000-2019 29 Figure 2.4 Low-carbon technologies by unit size and average annual installations in the Sustainable Development Scenario 31 Figure 2.5 Capital costs for selected energy technologies in 2040 relative to 2019 32 Figure 3.1 Growth of IPFs in energy supply technologies, 2000-2019 35 Figure 3.2 IPFs in organic PV cells versus other types of PV cells, 2010-2019 367 Back to contents Figure 3.3 Innovation trends in mounting and tracking 37 Figure 3.4 Growth of IPFs in end-use technologies, 2000-2019 38 Figure 3.5 Growth of IPFs in enabling technologies, 2000-2019 39 Figure 3.6 IPFs in hydrogen-related technologies, 2000-2019 41 Figure 4.1 Estimated total public energy R&D, including demonstration budget for IEA member governments, 1974-2019 44 Figure 4.2 Share of IPFs originating from universities and PROs in LCE technology fields, 2000-2019 45 Figure 4.3 Geographical origins of IPFs related to LCE technologies, 2000-2018 47 Figure 4.4 Top 15 applicants in LCE technologies, 2000-2019 49 Figure 4.5 Global growth of IPFs in electric vehicles versus other LCE technologies for road transportation, 2000-2019 52 Figure 4.6 Top 10 applicants in LCE road transport technologies, 2000-2019 53 Figure 5.1 Growth of IPFs in LCE technologies by global innovation centres, 2000-2019 55 Figure 5.2 Long-term trend of patenting in fossil fuels technologies, 1945-2019 58 Figure 5.3 Growth of IPFs in fossil fuel versus LCE supply technologies by global innovation centres, 2000-2019 59 Figure 5.4 Growth of IPFs in LCE technologies in European countries, 2000-2019 60 Figure 5.5 Share of IPFs in leading innovation centres that are co-invented with other countries, 2000-2019 62 Figure 5.6 Top 10 fields for share of IPFs stemming from international collaboration (with top 5 pairs of collaborating countries highlighted in each field), 2000-2019 638 Back to contents Country codes AT Austria BE Belgium CA Canada CH Switzerland CN People s Republic of China DE Germany DK Denmark ES Spain FR France IL Israel* IN India IT Italy JP Japan KR Republic of Korea NL Netherlands RU Russia SE Sweden UK United Kingdom US United States of America List of abbreviations BOS Balance-of-system CCUS Carbon capture, utilisation and storage CO 2 Carbon dioxide CSP Concentrating solar power EPC European Patent Convention EPO European Patent Office EV Electric vehicles GHG Greenhouse gas ICT Information and communications technology IEA International Energy Agency IPF International patent families LCE Low-carbon energy LED Light-emitting diode Li-ion Lithium-ion OCGT Open-cycle gas turbine PATSTAT EPO s worldwide patent statistical database PEM Polymer electrolyte membrane PRO Public research organisations PV Photovoltaics R&D Research and development RTA Revealed technological advantage SDS Sustainable development scenario SMR Small modular reactor TRL Technology readiness level Y02 EPO s classification scheme for climate mitigation technologies (see Box 1) * The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. 9 Back to contents Executive summary Energy innovation is an inescapable condition of climate change mitigation, occurring against a backdrop of rising policy ambition and a changing technology landscape Over the last year, many of the planet s largest economies and companies have committed to eliminating their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of this century, or soon thereafter. This has focused attention on a planned near-total transformation of the energy system in as little as three decades. However, the energy sector will only reach net-zero emissions if there is a significant and concerted global push to accelerate innovation (IEA, 2020a). Technologies still currently at the prototype or demonstration phase represent around 35% of the cumulative CO 2 emissions reductions needed to shift to a sustainable path consistent with net-zero emissions by 2070. The successful examples of LEDs or lithium-ion batteries, which took between ten and 30 years to go from the first prototype to the mass market, must set the benchmark for the array of energy technologies needed to achieve net-zero emissions. Trends in low-carbon energy (LCE) innovation have never been more important to policymaking. Not only do climate change goals demand urgent and informed strategic decisions about innovation, but investment in new technology fields has taken centre stage in proposed recovery plans to combat the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (IEA, 2020b). As described in this report, clean energy transitions are being built using innovations that represent a departure from the types of technologies developed by the energy sector in previous decades. New technologies support a shift to greater reliance on electrical power in a wide range of sectors, with more consumer-oriented solutions and more distributed resources. This is resulting in a focus on smaller unit sizes and a different set of technology customers. These changes are bringing new entrants into the energy systems, increasing the pressure to innovate in product design and raising the role of manufacturing innovations, among other things. As this report describes, the changing dynamics of energy innovation can already be seen in patenting data. Aimed at decision-makers in both the private and public sectors, this report is a unique source of intelligence on the innovation trends across the energy system, and LCE technologies in particular. Drawing on the EPO s dedicated scheme for patent information on climate change mitigation, the data presented in the report shows the latest trends in high-value inventions for which patents have been filed in more than one office by counting international patent families (IPFs 1 ). Highlighting the LCE fields that are gathering momentum and the cross fertilisation taking place provides a guide for policy and business decision-makers to direct resources towards an effective energy transition. 1 Each IPF covers a single invention and includes patent applications filed and published at several patent offices. It is a reliable proxy for inventive activity because it provides a degree of control for patent quality by only representing inventions for which the inventor considers the value sufficient to seek protection internationally. The patent trend data presented in this report refer to numbers of IPFs.10 Back to contents After a rapid rise in the period to 2013, patenting activity in LCE technologies slumped between 2014 and 2016. However, the latest data show three years of growth in LCE, which is a particularly encouraging trend when contrasted with the simultaneous decline of patenting in fossil energy – a four-year decli