2021年可再生能源发电成本(英)-IRENA.pdf

www.irena.org © IRENA 2022 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2021 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2021 20222 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2021 © IRENA 2022 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. Citation: IRENA (2022), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-452-3 Acknowledgements The report was authored by Michael Taylor, Pablo Ralon and Sonia Al-Zoghoul (IRENA); Matthias Jochum on WACC benchmarking (ETH Zurich), under the guidance of Dolf Gielen (Director, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre). This report benefited from the reviews and comments of numerous experts, including Pietro Altermatt (Trina Solar), Alex Barrows (exa-watt), Volker Berkhout (Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology), Marcel Bial (European Solar Thermal Electricity Association (ESTELA)), Matteo Bianciotto (IHA), Rina Bohle Zeller (VESTAS), Christian Breyer (LUT), Alex Campbell (IHA), Guiseppe Casubolo (SQM), Jürgen Dersch (DLR), Alain Dollet (CNRS / PROMES), Rebecca Ellis (IHA), Gilles Flamant (PROMES-CNRS), Jérémie Geelen (Bioenergy Europe), Konstantinos Genikomsakis (ESTELA), Paul Komor (University of Colorado at Boulder), Eric Lantz (NREL/IEA Wind Task 26), Joyce Lee (GWEC), Jon Lezamiz Cortazar (Siemens Gamesa), Elvira Lopez Prados (Acciona), Angelica Marsico (ESTELA), Gonzalo Martin (Protermosolar), David Moser (Eurac Research), Stefan Nowak (NET), Werner Platzer (Fraunhofer ISE), Manuel Quero (Sunntics), Christoph Richter (DLR / SolarPACES), Santa Rostoka (ESTELA), Ricardo Sanchez (PSA), Eero Vartiainen (Fortum Renewables Oy), Yuetao Xie (CREEI), Feng Zhao (GWEC). All opinions and errors remain those of the authors. The authors are grateful for the valuble contributions from Barbara Jinks, Diala Hawila and Yong Chen (IRENA) in the preparation of this study. Publications, communications and editorial support were provided by Francis Field, Stephanie Clarke, Nicole Bockstaller and Manuela Stefanides. The report was copy-edited by Jonathan Gorvett and a technical review was provided by Paul Komor. The graphic design was done by Ignacio de la Concepción Sanz. IRENA would like to thank: · The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy for supporting the benchmarking and survey of the cost of capital for renewable power generation projects. · The European Commission for supporting the collection of renewable energy cost and performance data to help track innovation output trends. For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org This report is available for download: www.irena.org/publications Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org The growing competitiveness of renewable energy continues to provide the most compelling pathway to the decarbonisation of the global energy system © sdf_qwe/Shutterstock.com4 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2021 The competitiveness of renewables continued to improve in 2021, with data from the IRENA Renewable Cost Database indicating an ongoing decline in the cost of electricity generated by renewables and affirming their essential role in the journey towards a net zero future. Renewables represent a vital pillar in the global effort to reduce and ultimately phase out fossil fuels, increasing national resilience in the face of fossil fuel price volatility. High coal and fossil gas prices in 2021 and 2022 have further undermined the competitiveness of fossil fuels, making solar and wind even more attractive. With the unprecedented surge in European fossil gas prices, new fossil gas generation in Europe will increasingly become uneconomic over its lifetime, bringing the high risk of stranded assets. Conversely, the world has witnessed a seismic shift in the competitiveness of renewable power generation options since 2010. The global weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of newly commissioned utility-scale solar PV projects declined by 88% between 2010 and 2021, while onshore wind fell by 68%, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 67% and offshore wind by 60%. Rising commodity and renewable equipment prices are passed through into project costs with a lag, given the time difference between a financial investment decision and the commissioning of a project. Given this, the global weighted average costs of solar photovoltaics (PV), as well as onshore and offshore wind power fell in 2021. The levelised cost of electricity from solar PV fell by 13%, whilst onshore and offshore wind fell by 15% and 13%, respectively, compared to 2020. Almost two-thirds – or 163 gigawatts (GW) – of newly installed renewable power in 2021 had lower costs than the world’s cheapest coal-fired options in the G20, confirming the critical role of cost-competitive renewables in addressing today’s energy and climate crises. Francesco La Camera Director-General International Renewable Energy Agency FOREWORD5 FOREWORD The global weighted average LCOE of new utility-scale solar PV and hydropower was 11% lower than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired power generation option in 2021, and 39% lower for onshore wind. Cost reductions were not universal, however, as the weighted average total installed costs of utility-scale solar PV increased year-on-year in 3 of the top 25 markets, and in 7 for onshore wind in 2021. Furthermore, geothermal and bioenergy remained, on average, more expensive than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option globally – albeit highly competitive in some non-OECD regions. IRENA’s data also suggest that some material cost increases are yet to be passed through into equipment prices and project costs. If materials prices remain elevated, the price pressures in 2022 will be more pronounced and overall costs may rise. Nonetheless, extremely high fossil fuel prices mean that any plausible scenario for renewable cost increases are outweighed by the extensive economic benefits of new renewable capacity overall. This only strengthens the conclusion of IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022 that low-cost renewable energy provides the most compelling pathway to the decarbonisation of the global future energy system and the achievement of both the 1.5°C target and the goals of the Paris Agreement. If ever there was a year to dramatically increase the deployment of renewable power generation, it is 2022. Renewables will reduce fossil import bills and average electricity system costs, and lessen the damaging impacts of high electricity prices on consumers and industry. This year’s fossil fuel price crisis demands a response; renewables and energy efficiency provide the answer, bringing unprecedented benefits for consumers, the environment and the global economy.6 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2021 Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 LATEST COST TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Introduction 21 Solar PV and wind power costs fall again in 2021 .26 Cost trends, 2010 -2021 30 Renewable power: The competitive solution for new capacity 34 Rising fossil fuel prices in 2022 highlight the benefits of renewable power .38 Natural gas is losing its transition role in power generation in Europe .42 New renewables capacity added in 2021 saves billions of dollars in fossil fuel electricity costs in 2022 45 Inflation, commodity price increases and the impact and outlook for renewable power generation equipment costs in 2021 and 2022 .50 ONSHORE WIND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Highlights 59 Introduction 60 Wind turbine characteristics and costs 60 Total installed costs .63 Capacity factors 66 Operation and maintenance costs .71 Levelised cost of electricity 73 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Highlights 79 Recent market trends 80 Total installed costs .80 Capacity factors 91 Operation and maintenance costs .95 Levelised cost of electricity .96 OFFSHORE WIND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Highlights .101 Introduction .102 Total installed costs 108 Capacity factors .113 Operation and maintenance costs .117 Levelised cost of electricity 118 01 02 03 04 CONTENTS7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Highlights .121 Introduction .122 Total installed costs 124 Capacity factors .128 Operation and maintenance costs 131 Levelised cost of electricity 133 HYDROPOWER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 Highlights .139 Total installed costs 140 Capacity factors .147 Operation and maintenance costs 148 Levelised cost of electricity 150 GEOTHERMAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Highlights .153 Introduction 154 Total installed costs 156 Capacity factors .158 Levelised cost of electricity .159 BIOENERGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 Highlights .163 Bioenergy for power .164 Biomass feedstocks 164 Total installed costs 165 Capacity factors and efficiency 168 Operation and maintenance costs 169 Levelised cost of electricity 170 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 ANNEX I: Cost metric methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 Changing financing conditions for renewables and the weighted average cost of capital 184 Total installed cost breakdown: detailed categories for solar PV .191 ANNEX II: The IRENA renewable cost database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 ANNEX III: Regional groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 06 07 08 058 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2021 FIGURES Figure S.1 Change in global weighted levelised cost of electricity by technology, 2020-2021 16 Figure S.2 G l o b a l w e i g ht e d a v e r a g e t o t a l i n s t a ll e d costs, capacity factors and LCOE of newly commissioned utility-scale solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, 2010-2021 17 Figure S.3 T h e w e i g ht e d a v e r a g e L C O E o f u t i l i t y scale solar PV compared to fuel and CO2 cost only for fossil gas in Europe, 2010-2022 18 Figure 1.1 Global LCOE from newly commissioned utility-scale solar and wind power technologies, 2020-2021 . 28 Figure 1.2 G l o b a l w e i g ht e d a v e r a g e L C O E s f r o m newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010-2021 . 32 Figure 1.3 A n n u a l a n d c u m u l a t i v e t o t a l n e w renewable power generation capacity added at a lower cost than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option, 2010-2021 . 35 Figure 1.4 A n n u a l a n d c u m u l a t i v e s a v i n g s a n d generation from new renewable power generation capacity with lower costs than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option, non-OECD countries, 2010-2021 37 Figure 1.5 E u r o p e a n f o s s i l g a s a n d t h e r m a l c o a l price trends by month, 2004-2022 . 38 Figure 1.6 W h o l e s a l e e l e c t r i c i t y ( h o u r l y ) a n d f o s s i l gas (daily) prices for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, March 2022 39 Figure 1.7 F u e l - o n l y g e n e r a t i o n c o s t s f o r c o a l and fossil gas for 2022 relative to the LCOE of new solar PV, onshore and offshore wind power projects commissioned in 2021, by country 40 Figure 1.8 I m p l i e d 2 0 2 2 r e v e n u e f o r s o l a r a n d wind projects commissioned in 2021, relative to their annual capital recovery requirement . 41 Figure 1.9 E u r o p e a n f o s s i l g a s p r i c e s b y m o nt h and 15-year rolling average, 1989-2022 . 42 Figure 1.10 L C O E o f n e w s o l a r P V , o n s h o r e a n d offshore wind in Europe compared to fossil gas-fired CCGT plants, 2021/2025 . 44 Figure 1.11 E s t i m a t e d s a v i n g s i n 2 0 2 2 af t e r n e w renewable capacity added in 2021 has displaced fossil fuel generation in 2022, by generation technology 45 Figure 1.12 E s t i m a t e d s a v i n g s i n 2 0 2 2 f r o m n e w renewable capacity added in 2021 that displaces fossil fuel generation, by G20 country and generation technology . 46 Figure 1.13 G e r m a n y : E s t i m a t e d h o u r l y n e t c o s t savings from renewable generation and wholesale electricity prices, January-May 2022 . 48 Figure 1.14 E s t i m a t