ITRPV Ninth Edition Presentation 2018

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 1 | 13 March 2018 Source: www.siemens.com/presse Page 1 | 15 March 2017 ITRPV 9 th edition 2018 - report release and key findings Markus Fischer PV CellTech Conference, March 14 2018 Penang, MalaysiaVDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 2 | 13 March 2018 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 3 | 13 March 2018 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA ITRPV – Methodology | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 4 | Working group today includes 55 contributors from Asia, Australia, Europe, and US Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Review of data Preparation of publication  regional chairs Next ITRPV edition SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEM MODULE Parameters in main areas are discussed  Diagrams of median values Photovoltaic Equipment Chairs US Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US 13 March 2018VDMA 13 March 2018 | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 5 | Contributors: 55 (40) Figures: 71 (60) Materials: 16 (14) Processes: 21 (18) Products: 14 (12) PV systems: 8 (7) Prediction quality since 2009: Finger width trend  well predicted and realized (Front side improvement is key for: 1. Silver reduction (world market driven Silver price) 2. performance increase Wafer thickness trend  bad predicted and no progress Mono shows indication of reduction (Poly-Si depends on PV market development) Review ITRPV predictions Finger width 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 µm 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition 9. Edition ITRPV 2018 Review ITRPV predictions Wafer thickness (mono) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 µm 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition 9. Edition ITRPV 2018VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 6 | 13 March 2018 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA PV learning curve | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 7 | 13 March 2018 Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative shipments ITRPV 2018 Shipments /avg. price at years end: 2016: 76 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp 2017: 105 GWp / 0.34 US$/Wp o/a shipment: ≈ 414 GWp o/a installation: ≈ 402 GWp 400 GWp milestone passed!  more than doubling since 2014 LR 22.8% (1976 …. 2017) moderate price reduction @ impressive volume 2015 12 / 2017 400 GWpVDMA Cost consideration | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 8 | 13 March 2018 Price Trend for c-Si modules 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 01.2011 01.2012 01.2013 01.2014 01.2015 01.2016 01.2017 01.2018 Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module ITRPV 2018 Poly Si 26% Poly Si 12% Poly Si 23% Wafer 29% Wafer 23% Wafer 18% Cell 20% Cell 23% Cell 22% Module 25% Module 42% Module 37% 01_2011 01_2016 12_2017  reduction 01/2011  01/2016: ≈ 64 %  reduction 01/2016  12/2017: ≈ 42 % (reduction 01/2017  12/2017: ≈ 8 %)  Moderate price reduction due to China demand risk of overheating in 2018  c-Si-wafer share still at 40%  Cost pressure on module remains 1.59 US$ 0.58 US$ 0.34 US$VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 9 | 13 March 2018 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Wafer: wafering technology (1) | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 10 | 13 March 2018 Wafering technology for mono Si World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds ITRPV 2018 Wafering technology for mc-Si World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds ITRPV 2018 Trend: wafering technology for mono-Si Trend: wafering technology for mc-Si DWS replaced slurry nearly completely  Electroplated diamond wire is mostly used Slurry based wafering will fast disappear also for mc-Si  main challenge: texturingVDMA Wafer: wafering technology (2) | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 11 | 13 March 2018 Kerf loss and TTV for slurry based and diamond wire sawing 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [µm] Kerf loss for slurry based wire sawing Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing TTV for slurry based wire sawing TTV for diamond wire sawing ITRPV 2018 Trend: Kerf loss / TTV Trend: throughput crystallization/ wafering diamond wire sawing advantage:  realizing fast, significant kerf reduction No big change in thickness variation is expected  continued throughput improvement in crystallization/wafering Throughput trend in crystal growth & wafer sawing Throughput per tool: 2017 = 100% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 crystal growth per tool (mc-Si) slurry based wire sawing relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] diamond wire based ITRPV 2018 Ingot mass in crystal growth 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [kg] mc-Si mono-Si Gen 6 Gen 7 Gen 8 ITRPV 2018 Kerf D40µm D60µmVDMA Wafer: Materials - poly-Si utilization | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 12 | 13 March 2018 Average polysilicon utilization per wafer (156x156mm) Grams polysilicon consumed per wafer by technology 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [gram] mc-Si, slurry based mono-Si, slurry based mc-Si, diamond wire based mono-Si, diamond wire based ITRPV 2018 poly Si utilization: standard wafer ≈ 10g - slurry based wafering: 200% - DWS 160%  Reduced kerf loss enables big reduction  Mono / mc-Si show slight difference  Thickness reduction will enable further reduction Trend: poly-Si consumption for c-Si wafersVDMA 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th ITRPV Edition Wafer thickness [µm] 2009 2015 2017 Wafer: Product – wafer thickness trend | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 13 | 13 March 2018 Trend for minimum as-cut wafer thickness and cell thickness 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [µm] Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology ITRPV 2018 • Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction • Median mono: decreased in 2017!  180µm = preferred thickness since 2009 • Thickness reduction obviously started for Mono  cost reduction potential  diamond wire will support New module technologies ready!VDMA Different wafer types World market share [%] p-type mc n-type p-type mono 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2017 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 p-type mc p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono ITRPV 2018 IHS Markit data Wafer: Product - market share of material types | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 14 | 13 March 2018 casted-Si domination may be not for ever:  dominates market in 2017 (60%) • Casting technology:  standardp-type mc-Si disappears fast  no“ come back” of mono-like expected • Mono technology gains market:  n-type material share will increase  n- + p-type market share today ≈40% • p-type material is expected to stay dominant  mainly due to solved degradation challenge • 2017 values in line w/ IHS analysis Trend: share of c-Si material types  Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type)VDMA Wafer: Product – market share of different wafer formats | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 15 | 13 March 2018 Different mc-Si wafer sizes World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² ITRPV 2018 Different mono-Si wafer sizes World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² ITRPV 2018 Trend: wafer dimension mc-Si Trend: wafer mono-Si | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 15 | Very fast transition to new formats for mono and mc-Si  156.75 x 156.75 mm² is mainstream today!  161.75 x 161.75 mm² is expected in future  further changes depend on module dimensionsVDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 16 | 13 March 2018 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Cell: Materials – Silver (Ag) per cell | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 17 | 13 March 2018 Trend for remaining silver per cell (156x156mm²) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell] ITRPV 2018 Review ITRPV predictions Silver amount per cell 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 silver per cell [g/cell] 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition 9. Edition ITRPV 2018 * avg. module power 280W labeled ** Assumption ≈ 30,000t yearly market (Wikipedia) Trend: remaining Ag per cell 156x156mm² Ag will stay key metallization material in c-Si technology 2017: 100mg assumption: 19.8% x 0.985 (CTM) ≈ 4.72W/ cell *  ≈ 21.4 t / GWp  ≈ 2140 t in 2017 = 7.5 % of world Silver market** February 2018: 533 US$/kg  ≈ 1.1 $cent/ Wp*  quite good predictions  2009 300 mg  2017 100 mg reached  Similar to 2016 values  Ag reduction is mandatory and continues  Introduction of Cu or other material postponed • No break through for lead free pastes so far  Market introduction depends on performance VDMA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 fA/cm2 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition 9. Edition Cell: Processes – recombination current densities | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 18 | 13 March 2018 Recombination current densities 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Recombination current [fA/cm 2 ] J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono J0 front p-type material J0 rear p-type material J0 bulk n-type mono SHJ or back contact J0 front n-type mono SHJ or back contact & rear SHJ J0 rear n-type mono back contact ITRPV 2018 • J0 bulk – mc Si p-type mc-Si: improved significantly, 2010 2017 2018  Prediction met: 650  180  155 fA/cm² 2017 values reached mono quality of 2015! p-type mono: improvement continues 2015 2017 2018 170  110  90 fA/cm² • J0 front / J0 rear : Both are at similar levels  further reductions are expected  p-type: reduction of recombination losses progresses  n-type: overcomes p-type bulk material limitations  passivated contacted are expected from 2022 onwardsVDMA Cell: Processes – texturing of mc-Si wafers | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 19 | 13 March 2018 Different texturing technologies for mc-Si World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) MCCE (metal-catalyzed chemical etching) or wet chemical nanotexturing technology Standard acidic etching (incl. use of additives) ITRPV 2018 • Acidic texturing is:  mature and high throughput process  “standard” + additives for DWS and slurry • Next step for DWS roll out:  MCCE + wet nano texturing, • RIE share is expected to stay small  no cost efficient alternative  Wet processing remains mainstream in mc-Si texturing  standard acidic texturing also with additives for DWS is mainstream today progress of last months will boost DWS for mc-Si further  Improvements expected in nano texturing /MCCE (cost position critical) DWS slurryVDMA Cell: Processes – doping the p-n junction for low J0 front | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 20 | 13 March 2018 Emitter sheet resistance for phosphorous doping (p-type cells) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Ohms / square ITRPV 2018 Different phosphorous emitter technologies for p-type cells World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by laser doping selective emitter by etch back homogenous emitter by ion implantation selective emitter by ion implantation ITRPV 2018 Emitter sheet resistance: essential for J0 front  100 Ω/□ are standard in today’s production  Increase to 138 Ω/□ is expected  Challenge for surface cleaning, tools and pastes Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion  selective doping: laser doping is preferred  Ion implant stays nicheVDMA Cell: Processes – rear side passivation for J0 rear | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 21 | 13 March 2018 Different rear side passivation technologies World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 PECVD AlOx + capping layer ALD AlOx + capping layer PECVD SiONx ITRPV 2018 Current technologies:  PECVD AlOx will stay mainstream  ALD will increase market share to 10 %  SiONx will disapear Trend: Rear side passivation technologies • J0 rear was reduced as expected  by introduction of rearside passivation  key material Al2O3 • Competing technologies at the beginning: ALD, PECVD, PVD, 2009 2015 2017 780  150  100 fA/cm² 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 fA/cm2 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition 9. EditionVDMA Cell: Processes – front side metallization | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 22 | 13 March 2018 Front side metallization parameters 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [µm] Finger width Alignment precision ITRPV 2018 Front silver grid printing World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 dual print (where fingers and busbars are printed separately in two different printing processes) double print (also known as print on print) single print (one screen print process for whole front silver grid) ITRPV 2018 Trend: finger width and alignment precision Trend: number of bus bars Finger width: reduction continues 45µm today  22µm 2028 - Thinner Fingers require more bus bars - 3 BB will disap